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04-Sep-2026 11:20	Bearish talking points for week-ended 4-Sep: Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up again. Kinetic activity in the Middle East resumed as US struck Iranian launchers and targeted radar systems and mine-laying capabilities, while Iran launched ballistic missiles at US air bases in the region and struck two oil supertankers. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine also intensified with Russian attacks on Kyiv and a Ukrainian push to compel closure of Russian commercial airspace. Diesel prices continued to push higher and trigger worries about negative spillover effects for global growth amid elevated geopolitical tensions (which are disrupting global refining activities). Diesel prices at US pump neared $5.85/gal this week, eclipsing previous record of $5.82 from June 2022. Prices up ~55% since US-Iran conflict began. Diesel crack spreads in US and Europe at record highs. Price pressure a key feature of the August ISM surveys. ISM services prices paid increased by 2.3 to 72.6, hitting highest level since July 2022. Release noted tariffs and Middle East tensions returned as most cited issues impacting respondents' supply chains. Prices paid measure in the ISM manufacturing report held at an elevated 71.1, with AI capex boom, Iran conflict and shifting tariff policy all flagged. Supply constraints flagged by multiple tech companies this week as a headwind on their ability to convert (strong) demand into revenue. Broadcom, Dell, HPE, NetApp and Ciena all discussed this dynamic. Input cost pressures, particularly around memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM) and wafer-limited components, were widely cited as well. August ISM manufacturing missed consensus and the composition of the report was softer. New orders, production and employment components all declined. Release commentary noted that while manufacturing remains in expansionary territory, it has lost ground on several key measures, including new orders. Lululemon latest high-profile retail/apparel earnings disappointment. Missed on Q2, guided Q3 well below and cut FY EPS guidance by ~13%. Brand deterioration, share loss, traffic and conversion struggles, inconsistent product-launch response, further softening into 2H and a big slowdown in China among key areas of scrutiny. Negative updates out of the consumer staples space. Campbell's guided FY27 organic sales down 2-4% and EBIT down 7-12%, below consensus, while it cut its dividend 36%. Flagged continued Snacks weakness and inflation pressure. Street skeptical on turnaround timing. Tyson Foods announced another FY26 guidance cut, highlighting additional pressure in Beef segment. Cautious strategist spin to start September. Firms highlighted a number of potential overhangs, including seasonality (September worst month for stocks), structural influences on rates, waning earnings and corporate buyback tailwinds, higher oil/gas/diesel prices, hawkish leaning central bank reaction functions, top-down capacity constraint dynamics surrounding AI, and signs of consumer softening. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 11:19	Bullish talking points for week-ended 4-Sep: Fed messaging shifted less hawkish (and helped contribute to yield stabilization). Fed Governor Waller said recent data suggest finally seeing some signs of disinflation. Added that if this continues in data over next two weeks, would be inclined to support keeping policy steady. Noted he does not see energy and tariffs as meaningful forward contributors to inflation. Comments from Fed's Williams also reflected centrist camp messaging. Concerns about bond yield backup as a tail risk for stocks received select pushback. Some of the discussion revolved around the limited magnitude of the move in comparison to 2022 (Bloomberg). Vol a key area of focus with MOVE Index still fairly rangebound and not much above August average, fitting with talk about the orderly nature of the move. Yen strength also mentioned as supportive for Treasuries this week. AI compute/capex demand strength remained a key feature of the high-profile earnings releases this week. Broadcom guided for AI chip revenue double to ~$230B in FY28, while takeaways were positive on increasing customer diversification. Dell's AI server orders hit a record $60.9B in Q2 and company (again) raised its FY27 AI server revenue guidance from $60B to $74B (up ~3X y/y). New AI model enthusiasm as OpenAI, Meta and Google were all out with releases this week. Bulk of the attention went to GPT-6 Astra, which OpenAI called a "generational leap" and said could eventually be seen as the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Goldman Sachs highlighted importance of Astra, noting breakthrough intelligence revitalizes desire/necessity to spend (The Market Ear). Strong August employment report offered some pushback against recent pickup in concerns about dampened macro surprise momentum (Citi US Economic Surprise Index at lowest levels since late April early in the week). Nonfarm payrolls increased 162K, well ahead of the ~55K consensus, while unemployment rate held at 4.1% with the 569K gain in household employment offset by a 683K increase in size of labor force. August ISM services surprised to the upside and hit highest level in six months. Headline reading increased by 1.3 to 55.4. Composition of the report was stronger as new orders, business activity, and employment components all increased. Business activity hit highest level since November 2022 and new orders hit highest level since February 2023. Dark crossings/US military assistance in SoH continued to get more attention with 18M barrels of oil reportedly exiting on 40 commercial vessels on Tuesday (CNN). Goldman Sachs estimated that when accounting for dark crossings, total Persian Gulf exports are ~15-16M bpd, or about two-thirds of pre-war levels. Snowflake latest high-profile software name to rally on favorable AI inflection narrative (big theme last week in software was AI monetization>dislocation). Takeaways highlighted pickup in growth contribution from AI products (CoCo/CoWork adoption), while company talked up flywheel dynamic with AI users driving higher core Snowflake consumption. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 08:48	August nonfarm payrolls much stronger than expected; unemployment rate steady: August nonfarm payrolls increased 162K m/m vs +55K consensus and July's upwardly revised +21K (was -23K); June also revised up to +31K from +20K, leaving June/July 55K higher than previously reported and lifting the 3-month average to +71K from +20K previously reported. Unemployment held at 4.1% as expected, while participation rose to 61.6% from 61.4%. AHE increased 0.3% m/m, in line with consensus, and up 3.1% y/y. Private payrolls rose 127K, led by leisure/hospitality (+62K) and education/health services (+29K), while information (-23K) and financial activities (-11K) were biggest drags. Government rose 35K, reversing part of July's 50K decline. Despite stronger jobs report, inflation remains bigger swing factor for this month's Fed rate decision, putting primary focus on next week's CPI report. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 07:36	Diesel hits US retail record, topping 2022 highs: Increased press focus on elevated diesel costs, with prices at the US pump now near $5.85/gal, eclipsing the previous record of $5.82 from June 2022 (Axios, NY Times, AP). Diesel crack spreads moved back toward all-time highs this week, though have eased a bit from early week highs (ULSD futures have retreated Thursday/Friday after rising ~11% in a six-day run higher through Wednesday). Pressures from ongoing Iran conflict and resultant refinery capacity tightness major factors though Ukraine's stepped-up attacks on Russian refining no help. Analysts watching for impacts on diesel-intensive industries including farming and construction, not to mention potential spillover effects on consumer prices from increased road-shipping costs. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 07:34	Iran conflict largely status quo, with increased attention to economic pressures: Little change in the US-Iran conflict with nothing notable in terms of recent kinetic action after recent escalations. Comments yesterday from VP Vance stressed conflict is not a war as major combat operations have ended; also declined to provide a timeline for the end of the conflict, saying this will require Iran to stop targeting shipping (Reuters, CNN). More attention on rising economic toll on Iran amid the blockade and ramping sanctions, though no sign yet the strain will bring Iran to the table (Reuters). US also grappling with persistently high fuel prices while traffic through the SoH remains constrained. More commentary on high tension levels and lack of clear offramps (FT, AP). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 07:30	OpenAI's Astra launch battles token economics headwinds: New AI model enthusiasm (OpenAI, Meta, Google all released new models) a bullish piece to AI narrative this week, though GPT-6 Astra biggest focus, which OpenAI said could mark arrival of AGI (Axios). Goldman Sachs highlighted Astra's importance to broader AI narrative, calling it a breakthrough intelligence that revitalizes the desire and necessity to spend on AI (The Market Ear). However, Goldman earlier this week flagged increasingly challenging token economics, noting competition at frontier is accelerating, while unit prices collapsing with Silicon Data token index down 29% in August. Flagged oversupply risk, noting more demand and lower prices not automatically bullish if pricing falls faster than consumption grows. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, META, +OPENAI	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 06:53	Holiday-shortened week will be busy: Busy week ahead with Apple product event on 9-Sep, Oracle earnings on 10-Sep and August CPI on 11-Sep. Latter most important for the Fed's near-term policy calculus, with probability of a September rate hike back to ~50/50. Sell-side conference activity also picks up with tech, energy, banking, industrials, healthcare and consumer staples in focus. Some thoughts this could help put the focus back on the favorable corporate profit environment. Next week could also bring the release of Anthropic's S-1 filing, providing the first real look at frontier-lab economics (and justification for capex surge). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Sep-2026 06:52	Retail/apparel results disappoint: Retail/apparel reporters under pressure following earnings. Lululemon missed on Q2, guided Q3 well below and cut FY EPS guidance by ~13%. Brand deterioration, share losses, traffic and conversion struggles, inconsistent product-launch response, further softening into 2H and big slowdown in China among key areas of scrutiny. Oxford Industries Q2 in line to a bit better but lowered FY EPS guidance by 28%. Tommy Bahama a bright spot but Lilly Pulitzer the problem with management highlighting assortment and pricing mistakes. Also flagged continued macro pressures facing the consumer. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: LULU, OXM	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 15:04	Afternoon headlines: Iran-US: Combination of oil blockade and expanded secondary sanctions is becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to withstand (Reuters) Oman quietly denies agreement on Iran's proposed Hormuz transit fees (NY Post) AI: OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra, which it says is a generational leap on the road to AGI (Axios, FT) Pentagon says its Anthropic ban is still active despite recent remarks from Commerce Secretary Lutnick (Bloomberg) OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceXAI, and AWS were hit by outages on Thursday (Bloomberg) Nvidia agrees to acquire open-source AI platform Hugging Face for $13B (FT) Thinking Machines Lab in talks for multibillion-dollar raise at a ~$40B valuation (The Information) US trade deficit at widest in 16 months amid increased computer/accessories/semi imports (NY Times) Corporate: Tesla prepares to reintroduce the Cybercab robotaxi at an upcoming launch event in Austin (Bloomberg) Tyson Foods cuts annual guidance for second time within a month amid weak cattle prices (Reuters) Automakers urging Congress to permanently ban the sale, import, and construction of Chinese-connected vehicles (CNBC) Central banks: Fed Governor Waller signals support for September hold if inflation shows continued progress (FT) Economists expect ECB to conclude shortest interest rate hiking campaign in 15 years this September (Reuters) Markets: Rising R-star estimates suggest interest rates may remain elevated due to AI investment, government debt (Reuters) Blackstone again limits investor withdrawals as Q3 redemption requests hit 10% of flagship private credit fund (FT) Energy: Venezuela's opposition leader Machado cautious on oil agreement between Trump and Caracas, but supports US partnership (Bloomberg) Japan's Mitsui OSK Lines expects the shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz to continue into 2027 (Oilprice.com) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, BX, NVDA, SPCX, TSLA, TSN, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 10:15	August ISM Services shows strong activity, stable employment, elevated prices: August ISM Services increased to 55.4 vs 54.3 consensus and July's 54.1. New Orders increased 3.7 points to 60.9, highest since Feb-23, while Business Activity rose 2.6 points m/m to 61.7, highest since Nov-22. Employment remained more of a soft spot, edging up 0.4 points to 47.8 but contracting for second straight month. However, slightly fewer companies reported cutting staff compared to July. Prices rose 2.3 points to 72.6, highest since Aug-22, with fuel prices up for seventh straight month. Report commentary highlighted tariffs and the Middle East conflict as the most-cited supply-chain issues, alongside positive summer seasonality. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 08:50	Fed Governor Waller says he supports hold if inflation continues to make progress: In speech in Washington, Fed Governor Waller highlighted recent signs of disinflation, described his reaction function that if disinflationary progress seen in recent months continues, he is inclined to support holding at the September FOMC meeting. However, noted his decision will be heavily influenced by August inflation data, and if progress toward 2% inflation reverses or comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike. Waller also said he agrees with Warsh that defining forward guidance not appropriate now (was appropriate when policy rate was near zero) but believes it should be used when truly needed. Following commentary, markets now pricing in just 51% chance of September hike (down from 60% before remarks) and 33.5 bp of hikes through year-end (down from 37 bp pre-speech). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 08:41	Jobless claims tick slightly higher though remain subdued: Initial claims came in at 206K vs consensus 205K and previous week's revised 204K (was 203K); claims still hovering right below midpoint of this year's 189K-230K range. Continuing claims came in at 1779K vs consensus 1789K and prior week's revised 1771K (was 1778K). Elsewhere this morning, Challenger US layoffs rose 58% m/m in August, but fell 38% y/y and were the lowest for the month since 2022. Tech remained clear layoff leader with 155K cuts YTD, +52% y/y and 29% of all announced cuts. However, AI-related cuts dropped to 3.5K, ending a five-month run as the leading reason for layoffs. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 07:24	No sign of yen intervention Wednesday, but yen rallying again as BoJ prepares to hike: Yen extending Wednesday's rally as traders speculate Japanese officials could intervene in FX market again (FT, Bloomberg). However, BoJ accounts show no sign of major intervention, suggesting Wednesday's move instead driven by traders' recalibration of rate hike expectations, speculation around rate checks (Bloomberg). Thursday strength also comes amid reports BoJ leaning toward 25 bp rate hike at 18-Sep meeting to address persistent inflation risks. Bloomberg cited sources who played down likelihood of an outsized 50 bp hike, but officials also leaving open door for faster pace of rate increases if economic conditions, currency weakness necessitate further action. Markets pricing ~46 bp of hikes through year-end, up from ~40 bp a week ago. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 06:55	Yield stabilization: Yield stabilization one of the bigger stories yesterday and today. Follows a flurry of headlines highlighting heightened global bond market angst (largely driven by structural forces). Stabilization partly chalked up to softer ADP private payrolls data on Wednesday, though miss was fairly minimal and ahead of NFP, Street has talked about how next week's CPI much more important for Fed's near-term policy calculus. On the Fed front, some focus on centrist camp messaging from Williams yesterday. Also some discussion about yen strength/pressure on BoJ to accelerate policy normalization. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 06:40	Big Snowflake rally: Snowflake a post-earnings standout in software (which rallied big last week but has been under pressure this week). Growth accelerated for a third straight Q in Q2 with product revenue +37% y/y vs +34% in prior Q. Guided Q3 product revenue growth to 37%+ and raised FY27 product revenue guide by ~4% to $6.07B. Takeaways highlighted pickup in growth contribution from AI products (CoCo/CoWork adoption), while also positive on roughly half of the growth acceleration coming from core data platform. Company talked up flywheel dynamic with AI users driving higher core Snowflake consumption. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: SNOW	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 06:11	Broadcom expects AI chip revenue to double to ~$230B in FY28: Broadcom Q3 ahead and while Q4 revenue guide underwhelmed, broader takeaways largely upbeat. Company boosted FY27 AI chip revenue guide to ~$115B from prior $110B and guided for it to double to ~$230B in FY28. Noted this figure is supply- and deployment-constrained. Broad customer commitments (including six hyperscalers) another bright spot with Anthropic expected to become largest XPU customer and OpenAI second largest, while Google engagement described as "never stronger." Addressed funding mechanics but did not provide any details on max exposure/backstop risk. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AVGO	show story hide story
03-Sep-2026 06:05	Trump discussing whether to declare war over, SoH oil flows highest since start of war Trump reportedly discussing with senior aides whether to declare Iran war over, believing economic pressure will eventually force regime to dismantle nuclear program or collapse (link). Comes as Trump said Wednesday renewed military strikes on Iran would be short-lived, latest bombing campaign won't last for too long (Bloomberg, CNBC). However, reports also said top White House aides attempting to limit military escalation with Iran until after November midterm elections to avoid negative impacts on GOP electoral prospects, White House officials will consider ramping up military action after 3-Nov vote, though return to full-scale conflict uncertain (Reuters). Elsewhere, US military escorted 40 vessels carrying 18M barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz Tuesday, setting a fresh wartime record and just off the 20M level before launch of the war (CNN) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: AI: Commerce Secretary Lutnick says Anthropic is "back on the right side" with Trump administration (Axios) Google launches Fairwind Program offering advanced cyber defense capabilities to governments, trusted partners (link) Trump administration files brief supporting OpenAI in dispute against New York Times and other newspapers over copyrighted material (Reuters) Corporate: Uber to cut 3.3K jobs, or 10% of headcount, as part of a major restructuring to streamline operations (TechCrunch) PG&E plans to defer $2B in investments following failed California wildfire legislation (Bloomberg) Federal judge rules Google must change ad tech practices but avoids force breakup of company (NY Times) Employers bracing for largest increase in healthcare costs (~11%) in over two decades (NY Times) Circle K owner says consumers are tightening budgets, visiting stores less often (Bloomberg) Barrick Mining considering postponing plan to take NA gold business public until 2027 (Bloomberg) Central banks: New York Fed's Williams attributes rising Treasury yields to a strong US economy (CNBC) Fed's Beige Book reports modest growth, stable employment, elevated prices (link) BoC holds as expected as trade war with US threatens growth, inflation (Reuters) BoJ faces pressure from US Treasury to raise interest rates (Bloomberg) Trade/Tariffs: Commerce Secretary Lutnick reiterates White House considering new chip tariffs to incentivize domestic manufacturing (Bloomberg) Energy: Saudi Arabia oil exports hit nine-year low of 3M bpd in August as tanker attacks disrupt global supply chains (Bloomberg) US crude ‌inventories fell by 4.5M barrels in week ended 28-Aug vs expectations for a 1.1M barrel draw (Reuters) OPEC+ members expected to maintain steady crude production quotas during upcoming meeting (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: B, GOOGL, PCG, UBER, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 14:11	Fed's Beige Book again shows modest economic growth, stable employment, elevated prices: Latest Fed Beige Book reported economic activity increased modestly since early July, with 10 of 12 Fed Districts reporting slight-to-moderate growth. Consumer spending rose slightly despite heightened price sensitivity. Prices increased moderately overall, though pace largely unchanged. Input costs remained elevated in manufacturing and construction, particularly for energy and transportation, while tariff-related price pressures persisted in retail and manufacturing. Employment rose only slightly overall, with gains in seven Districts and no change in five. Labor demand was strongest in manufacturing, construction, and some services, while retail and hospitality weakened. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 10:43	Yen rallying amid suspected intervention: USD/JPY trading at ~158 Wednesday morning, down from over 160 earlier, amid latest speculation of currency intervention (Bloomberg). Comes after Japan spent record $96B over past month to support yen after recently falling to 164, a four-decade low. Move also comes after hawkish comments from BoJ board member Takata, who left open option for outsized moves, consecutive hikes. Bloomberg highlighted strategist commentary that Bessent's recent pressure on BoJ adding downside risk to yen, noting market has priced firmer yen on expectation of hike, and all the work to strengthen yen could be undone without a hike and hawkish messaging. Markets pricing ~97% chance of a 25 bp hike at BoJ's 17-Sep meeting. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 10:23	NY Fed's Williams says high yields due to strong growth and not market dysfunction: Speaking to CNBC, NY Fed's Williams (voter) said the recent surge in Treasury yields reflects a robust US economy rather than market dysfunction, notably strong economic prospects and significant investments in AI. Also supported maintaining a wait-and-see approach regarding future rate hikes, noting current data not yet conclusive. Williams' patient stance a bit of a divergence from other recent voters, notably Cleveland's Hammack, and comes as market has ramped September rate hike odds to ~64%, up from 36% a week ago. Market also pricing in 38 bp of hikes through year-end, most since 29-July, just before July FOMC meeting. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 08:35	August ADP private payrolls below consensus, again softest since January: August ADP private payrolls rose 38K m/m vs +47K consensus and July's revised +46K (was +44K), marking third straight monthly deceleration. Pay trends fairly stable with pay growth for all workers up 3.2% y/y, down 0.1 pp. Education/health services (+45K) and leisure/hospitality (+16K) led job gains, while manufacturing (-17K) and professional/business services (-16K) saw largest declines. Comes ahead of Friday's August NFP report, with consensus at +55K. JPMorgan sees 30K-70K as ideal range for market, with stronger print potentially fueling inflation concerns, while a sharp miss reviving stagflation worries. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 07:20	Sentiment turning south while positioning remains elevated: Goldman Sachs noted recent AAII bears readings (above 40% over past month) historically suggests a level associated with ~7-10% drawdowns. Citadel strategists noted fading retail demand (though partly seasonal) as flows have slowed in recent weeks, with average daily gross notional now just in 35th percentile, around 4% below average levels. At the same time, positioning, particularly systematics/vol control funds, remains elevated. Deutsche Bank noted vol control fund allocations at 100th percentile going back to 2010, while BofA strategists late last week noted downside risk from systematics/CTAs in all scenarios, estimated funds selling $163B in down market, $1B in flat market, and $9B in up market. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 06:58	Still cautious: Nothing particularly incremental from a narrative perspective as sentiment continues to lean more cautious amid higher rates, higher energy prices, hawkish central bank reaction functions, elevated geopolitical tensions, dampened positive macro surprise momentum and seasonal headwinds. Nothing out of recent G2O finance meeting on the structural issues facing global bond markets (link), though also some discussion about how the magnitude of the bond yield backup has been relatively contained (Bloomberg). Pickup in kinetic activity in the Middle East has put further upward pressure on energy prices, though also thoughts this could trigger another near-term de-escalation push. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 06:45	Mixed takeaways from the rest of the Tuesday evening tech earnings: Palo Alto Networks takeaways largely positive with focus on expanding AI security demand, platform consolidation and CyberArk and Chronosphere contributions, though bar high and also some scrutiny on implied FY27 organic ARR growth, tougher comparisons, potential core business slowdown. Credo Technology results and guide ahead with focus on continued AEC strength and optical ramp, though some takeaways flagged as underwhelming, while also some scrutiny on concentration, optics ramp timing. MongoDB beat and raised but stock pressured by implied 2H Atlas deceleration, which was chalked up to conservatism. Gitlab up big on broad-based Q2 beat with DBNR accelerating q/q for first time since 2024 and Street positive on consumption adoption. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CRDO, GTLB, MDB, PANW	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 06:44	Big beat from Dell on AI and traditional infrastructure tailwinds: Dell delivered a blowout Q2/FY guidance on the back of accelerating AI and traditional infrastructure. AI server orders hit a record $60.9B, backlog reached $95B, and company raised FY27 revenue guidance by $25B to ~$192B and AI server revenue guidance to $74B (~3X y/y). Takeaways positive on expanding enterprise customer base, still growing pipeline (even after converting ~$132B in orders over past 12 months), data center modernization demand, strong storage momentum. Some discussion about how it is becoming harder to surprise vs continued ramp in expectations, along with outsized margin/profitability boost from non-AI server/storage businesses. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: DELL	show story hide story
02-Sep-2026 06:33	US launches fresh wave of strikes against Iran, Trump plays diplomacy: US military conducted second round of strikes against Iran in three days, targeting air defense systems, radar sites, as well as Iranian tankers in retaliation for Iranian attacks on ships, the first use of Trump's "tanker for tanker" policy (FT, Axios). Oil stabilizing Wednesday though WTI holding near highest levels since July, though particular focus on diesel, with retail prices near April peak, refiner margins at record levels (Bloomberg). Some thoughts price pressures could trigger another near-term deescalation push, though Trump said Tuesday he's not trying to force Iran back to bargaining table, Bessent reiterated view economic pressure would force Iran to accord to end war (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 16:19	Market breadth dips to multi-month lows as defensive trend confirmed: Breadth negative Tuesday for fourth-straight day, tied for longest negative breadth streak (mid-July) since Nov-25. Just 45.4% of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day moving average, lowest since 15-May, while 62% of S&P 500 names above 200-day moving average, lowest since 1-Jul. On Tuesday, 14 S&P stocks hit fresh 52-week lows, most in a session since 23-Jul, though nine hit fresh 52-week highs Tuesday, improving from Monday's five that was tied for August-low. Defensive rotation confirmed Monday as Defensives (measured by average daily return of XLP, XLU, XLV) turned positive vs Cyclicals (XLY, XLI, XLF, XLB, XLE) on a 21-day basis for first time since late July. Note defensives were underperforming by over 430 bp as recently as 27-Aug. While software (IGV) trailed semis (SOX) on Tuesday, software still outperforming semis on a 21-day rolling basis for a 37th consecutive day Tuesday, longest streak since Aug-2015. Despite ongoing headlines around Treasury market, MOVE Index remains rangebound, averaging 73.3 for August, essentially in line with 73.0 average since 1-Apr. The standard deviation of MOVE index (the volatility of the bond volatility index) in August of 3.07 was also lowest since Feb-24. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 15:04	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: CENTCOM says US forces began striking IRGC targets in Iran Tuesday following Iran's SoH attacks on commercial ships (X, Axios) Treasury's Bessent says US preparing to announce further corporate sanctions as part of its economic campaign against Iran (Reuters) Trade/tariffs: Canada's PM Carney says positive opportunity for trade deal, accuses Trump of non-constructive behavior (CNBC) Trump administration urges G20 countries to better protect their markets vs China (Reuters) Central banks: Fed's Barr says FOMC should "act decisively to raise rates" if inflation appears to not be moderating sufficiently (CNBC, speech) ECB's Simkus signals a September rate hike will not be enough to curb inflation (Bloomberg) Corporate: S&P Global considering spinoff for Capital IQ Pro research platform (Bloomberg) GoPro to be acquired by Starman Optical for $285M in cash (Reuters) Energy: Diesel prices hit four-month high as refinery attacks tighten global supply (Bloomberg) US diesel refining margins hit record high of $106 per barrel as global supply constraints persist (Bloomberg) Chevron finalizing deal to expand oil operations in Venezuela under Trump administration policy (Bloomberg) AI: Token prices continue to make lows, have more than halved from high registered earlier this summer (CNBC) Anthropic says new version of Fable better at coding and more economical (Bloomberg) China remains more than a decade away from matching ASML extreme ultraviolet chip technology, according to UBS (Bloomberg) Markets: Goldman, BofA among major banks planning to launch dollar stablecoin by 2027 (Reuters) SEC investigating plans to expand access to private markets for retail investors (Bloomberg) Washington: House passes stopgap spending bill, avoids government shutdown before midterm elections (NY Times) Geopolitics: Bessent tells Russian counterpart that sanctions relief remains impossible until war in Ukraine ends (CNBC) Germany says Russia behind explosive-laden drone found at Leipzig/Halle airport last month (NY Times) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 14:50	Bearish spin to start September: Bearish spin to start the month, including widely discussed seasonal headwinds. Rates a key concern given structural influences and worries about potential Fed tightening into supply shock and dampened macro surprise momentum. Oil/refined products play into sticky inflation/affordability theme, while also scrutiny surrounding signs of consumer softening (waning fiscal/tax support). AI compute/capex demand narrative intact but up against barrage of sustainability (including via datacenter backlash) and circular financing headlines. Technical dynamics also in focus today with Nomura Cross-Asset note (McElligott) on vol collapse. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 13:09	US confirms fresh strikes on Iran: Centcom confirmed US carrying out fresh strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday. Noted strikes in response to Iran's attempted attacks on commercial shipping in SoH and US servicemembers in the Middle East. Recent ramp in kinetic activity has put upward pressure on oil, with WTI crude near $90 a barrel, its highest level in roughly a month. However, when it comes to potential spillover effects for global growth, there has been even more scrutiny on the strength in refined products, particularly diesel. Diesel prices have jumped to highest level in more than four months and are up 50%+ from the middle of June. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 10:18	August ISM manufacturing misses, though second-highest print this year: August ISM Manufacturing posted surprise decline to 54.6, missing consensus of 55.8 and down from July 55.6 print, though still second-highest print YTD. New orders down three points m/m to 53.7, lowest since March. Prices index unchanged at 71.1, still tied for lowest since February. Employment index down 1.6 points m/m to 51.2, though remains in expansion territory for second-straight month. Report commentary leaned negative, however, with negative sentiment centered around themes including pricing volatility, Iran war, increasing lead times, and tariffs. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 10:12	July job openings below expectations, attention pulled ahead to August employment data: July JOLTS job openings at 7271K, below consensus 7313K though above June's downwardly revised 7182K (was 7359K). Quits rate ticked down to 1.9% from prior 2.0%. Note JP Morgan said recent job-openings had run ahead of Indeed and other indicators and could signal some downtick. Comes ahead of a week of August employment data. ADP private payrolls out Wednesday; forecasts looking for a 47K increase following prior month's 44K. Nonfarm payrolls report coming Friday morning. Street consensus for ~55K after a 23K July decline (weakest since February). Previews calling out some August seasonal weakness; expect unemployment rate to hold at 4.1% on stabilizing continuing claims. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 06:52	Beyond the seasonal headwinds: While September seasonality has received a lot of attention, several other potential near-term headwinds have also been flagged. Recent update from Citadel Securities (Rubner) highlighted fading earnings tailwind with Nvidia out, waning corporate bid as month advances (one of largest, most consistent sources of structural demand), depressed volatility (little room left to compress), redeployment of systematic capacity from July momentum unwind, quarter-end pension rebalancing, quarterly options expiration, and a two-sided macro calendar. Also addressed seasonal dynamics, including in terms of seasonal softening of retail demand. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 06:09	US and Iran tensions remain elevated following latest SoH attacks: Two oil supertankers were struck by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz late Monday as regional tensions escalate (Bloomberg). The vessels had deactivated AIS transponders, highlighting risks to clandestine oil shipments through the strait. Recall oil shipments had reached roughly half the pre-war level recently, in large part to ships transiting with transponders off. Iran President Pezeshkian talked deescalation Tuesday, saying Tehran prepared to honor the June interim deal if the US returns to its original commitments (Reuters). However, other Iranian officials have taken harder line, threatening further retaliation following latest US strikes (FT). Trump on Monday also vowed US would hit Iran in response to Iran firing on American assets in Jordan, though also downplayed conflict, calling it a relatively little war. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Sep-2026 05:46	Global bond yield backup: Global bond yield backup the big story this morning with seemingly every major financial outlet running same headline (Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, link). 10-year JGBs hit 3% for first time since 1996, 10-year Gilts highest since 2008, 10-year Bunds highest since 2011, and 30-year Treasury bond above 5% for 55 days this year, the most since 2006. Structural forces continue to get outsized attention, particularly when it comes to US deficit (and $40T+ debt load), corporate supply pressure from AI capex boom, Japan's fiscal expansion (and BoJ behind the curve) and geopolitics. When it comes to latter, more recent focus has been on oil/refined products. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Aug-2026 15:06	Afternoon headlines: AI: OpenAI says its ad business is operating at a $1B annualized run rate, says it is evidence of its diversified business model (CNBC) Trump defends datacenter projects, says "let Data Reign" (Truth Social, Bloomberg) US/Iran: Trump administration considering limited series of strikes in the SoH to prevent Iran from reconstituting radar/missile capabilities (Axios) Trump pledges US will hit Iran hard in retaliation for its strike on US targets in Jordan (Politico) Energy: Energy experts, lawyers questioning Trump's US-Venezuela oil pact (Reuters) Unclear whether Venezuela deal will result in lower gas prices or SPR boosts during Trump's term (Bloomberg) Trump administration expected to approve higher volumes of biofuel blending exemptions (Reuters) Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has restored to full capacity one of world's biggest refineries following damage from earlier in US-Iran conflict (Bloomberg) Trump to meet with refiners, fuel distributors to discuss expanding capacity, lowering gasoline prices (CNBC) Markets: JPMorgan trading desk shifts to tactically cautious stance on US stocks following hawkish Fed signals (Bloomberg) Traders say China slowing yuan rally to support exporters amid soft domestic demand (Reuters) Bessent says he expects BoJ to take actions to strengthen yen, signals strong chance of September hike (Reuters) Hyperliquid Labs in talks with Kraken parent Payward to bring crypto perpetual futures to US traders (Bloomberg) Corporate: FTC to file suit against Amazon alleging it misled advertisers (link) Judge rules former parent of Silicon Valley bank cannot pursue a $1.71B claim against the FDIC (Reuters) Aon agrees to buy USI Insurance from KKR for around $17B (link) EU imposes stricter digital safety regulations on ChatGPT, Reddit and Roblox (FT) Washington: Bessent made case for lighter financial regulation at today's G20 finance ministers' meeting (Axios) Trump expected to announce new drug pricing agreements with pharma companies including Bayer, Takeda, CSL (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: 4502.JP, AMZN, AON, BAYN.GR, CSL.AU, PURR, RBLX, RDDT, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
31-Aug-2026 06:48	After Jackson Hole, Street focuses on Warsh's hawkish policy, balance sheet comments: Following Jackson Hole, BofA economists argued Warsh raised bar for hold given his comments Fed should focus on trends vs isolated data points, underlying inflation hasn't meaningfully improved. Bank argued absent material economic downside surprise, not hiking in September risks undermining credibility gained on Friday. Morgan Stanley economists said speech may suggest balance sheet tightening coming. Highlighted Warsh comment that rates not the only policy tool, and that if money created by balance sheet is removed, rates could be lower. Noted previous MS estimate that Fed could shrink balance sheet by $1.5T or more in 2027 (which also pushes back on Fed shadow QE narrative). Jefferies also argued Warsh's sought to specifically pushback against idea of Treasury coordination, more flexibility on balance sheet. Barclays called speech notably hawkish, implied case for tightening despite Warsh's opposition to providing forward guidance. Bank now expects two hikes this year vs previous call for none. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Aug-2026 06:39	Seasonal headwinds in September (and October): September historically worst month of the year for stocks (link). S&P 500 and DJIA have tended to decline by 1.1% in September, with positive returns just 44.5% and 42.6% of the time, respectively. In terms of the Nasdaq, data going back to 1971 show an average decline of 0.8%, though index has risen 52.7% of the time. Midterm elections play into the seasonal headwind narrative. JPMorgan has noted that based on the last 9 midterm election years since 1990, S&P has averaged a 2.2% decline in Q3 (vs -0.1% 30-year average). However, post-midterm performance has historically been strong. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Aug-2026 06:27	Bessent to call on G20 members to rethink their trade terms with China: Treasury Secretary Bessent to participate in the G20 finance ministers' meeting, taking place today and tomorrow in Asheville, NC. Reuters reported Bessent plans to call attention to an "unsustainable" flood of exports from China and push for a coordinated international response. Adds Bessent said the rest of the world will have to reexamine their China trade terms, and that he will be pushing for a joint statement on reducing trade and current-account imbalances. Bloomberg suggests the meeting may be a test for Bessent's credibility given global growth challenges stemming from the Iran war and US tariff policy. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Aug-2026 06:02	US, Iran exchange first for first time since July: US struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island this weekend to prevent deployment of sea mines in Strait of Hormuz (Axios, NY Times). CENTCOM stated action necessary to neutralize imminent threat to civilian mariners, ensure free flow of global commerce. Iran's IRGC threatened retaliation, launched ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan, though were intercepted. However, strike marked first attack against Iran in a month, though so far limited rather than resumption of large-scale American bombing. Elsewhere, some press focus on Treasury Secretary Bessent's "Operation Economic Outcast" being met with indifference by countries with economic ties to Iran, including China issuing warning rather than curtailing purchases of Iranian oil (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Aug-2026 16:05	Breadth squeeze, AI rift, rate hike bets derail market rotation: Broadening trade struggled to take off this week with breadth slightly negative Friday for third day in past four, while just 52% of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day moving average, lowest proportion since 10-Jun. Just four stocks made new 52w high on Friday after 10 set a 52w high Thursday, though both the lowest marks in August. However, while nine stocks made new 52w low Thursday (highest in August), just three set new 52w low Friday. Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) trailed cap-weighted index by around 90 bp this week (worst on 5d basis since 7-Aug). Rotations within the market included chips (SOX) trailing software (IGV) by nearly 800 bp, while momentum (MTUM) trailed S&P 500 by around 225 bp (and over 450 bp over past two weeks; note momentum outperformed by 475 bp on 10d basis as recently as 17-Aug). Faltering rotation attempt worsened Friday amid big jump in Fed rate hike pricing, with Dec-26 fed funds futures contract suggesting 10 bp of additional rate hikes vs Thursday, the biggest one-day jump since the 17-Jun FOMC decision. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Aug-2026 12:38	Bearish talking points for week-ended 28-Aug: September Fed tightening odds jumped nearly ~25pp to just under 60% following Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Friday. Yields at the front of the curve were up over 10 bp. Takeaways leaned hawkish on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate. Warsh referenced softer recent inflation readings but said price stability numbers remain "more concerning." AI scrutiny remained elevated on multiple fronts despite the upbeat takeaways from Nvidia earnings. Financial leverage ($3T+ off-balance sheet commitments, aggressive capex front-loading, CDS widening), political backlash (data centers), enterprise ROI skepticism and competition concerns for frontier models (from open-weight) all received attention in the press this week. Dick's Sporting Goods latest notable retail earnings disappointment, falling nearly 31% on Tuesday after it missed and cut FY EPS guidance by ~18% at the midpoint. Highlighted increasingly promotional environment in portions of athletic footwear and apparel marketplace and flagged outsized impact on Foot Locker. Negative trade/tariff developments as US-Canada talks suffered last-minute collapse, leading US to slap a 50% tariff on ~$20B of Canadian goods and Canada to enact dollar-for-dollar retaliation. Later in the week, a Politico report noted Trump administration weighing a new round of sweeping semiconductor tariffs that could spill over to laptops, servers and gaming consoles. Geopolitical tensions continued to have some adverse spillover effects for markets and global economy. While there was a somewhat better spin surrounding Middle East developments this week, Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation also received a lot of attention, including in terms of upward pressure on global food prices with wheat prices hitting a three-year high, up ~30% from late June. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Aug-2026 12:37	Bullish talking points for week-ended 28-Aug: Nvidia guided for 70% revenue growth in FY28 vs the ~45% consensus. Stock rallied nearly 9%. Takeaways highlighted Data Center strength across customer segments, Vera Rubin ramp ahead of schedule, expanded customer commitments and networking strength. Ramp in compute economics a particular bright spot, along with more color/detail on financing. Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Friday dampened some of the credibility concerns that followed the July FOMC meeting. Warsh highlighted a commitment to the 2% inflation goal based on the PCE index and short-term rates as the predominant tool to achieve the central bank's dual mandate. Long end was fairly stable on Friday despite the big backup in rates across rest of the curve. Longer-term yields were lower this week despite continued skepticism about the ability of Treasury's recently announced buyback boost to offset some of the other (secular leaning) forces at work (and the op-ed criticism from Druckenmiller). Oil pullback cited as supportive, along with CNBC report Treasury could use TGA to fund buybacks. Positioning dynamics (elevated CTA shorts) highlighted as well. Oil pulled back on some positive spin surrounding Middle East developments. Pakistan said early in the week it made significant progress in talks with Iranian officials in Tehran while Iran and Oman appeared close to a deal to manage SoH traffic. There was also more focus on the better SoH flow dynamics thanks to "dark crossings". Big software rally as some of this week's earnings reports helped dampen concerns about AI disruption and highlight AI monetization dynamics. Okta, Salesforce and CrowdStrike all jumped more than 20% on Thursday, while Veeva Systems gained just over 15%. Workday also managed to rally on Friday, reversing some initial post-earnings weakness For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Aug-2026 10:28	Warsh reaffirms Fed's target and tools but calls inflation trends concerning: Chair Warsh delivered the keynote at Fed's Jackson Hole conference today (speech). Consistent with several analyst previews, did some "clean up" of his July FOMC remarks by explicitly stating inflation target remains 2% PCE and rates are the Fed's primary policy tool. Was also generally upbeat on the economy and referenced softer recent inflation readings, but said price stability numbers remain "more concerning." Little surprise in remarks on forward guidance, saying market risks a "hall of mirrors" effect by overreliance on Fed commentary. No specific comments on recent Treasury buyback announcement. Speech seen as leaning hawkish (and short end selling off) though more positive credibility takeaways from Warsh's messaging, which seemed to thread the expectations needle. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Aug-2026 06:47	Notable tech reporters lag with some blame going to high bar: Marvell pressured by elevated expectations and waiting game for details on incremental longer-term upside from Google warrant deal (already baked into to FY27 and FY28) at October analyst day. Workday results in line to slightly better with takeaways focused on strong AI product adoption vs monetization gap, disappointing FY28 subscription guide, better FY28 margin guide and privatization uncertainty. Autodesk weaker despite beat and raise as takeaways highlighted high bar (up nearly 30% over past month), flat margin guidance and FY28 growth debate. Rubrik beat and raised but security earnings bar high and 2H guide implies sharp deceleration in NNARR growth. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: ADSK, MRVL, RBRK, WDAY	show story hide story
28-Aug-2026 06:23	Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point, with flows continuing to rise: Oil has eased this week amid continued signs of rising tanker volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters). Goldman Sachs estimates total Persian Gulf energy exports are now at about two-thirds of prewar levels (Bloomberg). Trump told Axios today "that sucker is open" and stressed Iran's mild response. Article notes US officials argue Iran has lost much of its influence over the SoH; US officials have said shipping lanes are free of mines (Bloomberg). Iran continues to demand conditions for a full reopening of the strait, including lifting the blockade and the US paying reparations (Reuters), while Iran's FM Araghchi said diplomacy with the US is "not impossible" (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Aug-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: Markets: Citrini says Treasury and Fed shifting to more coordinated approach that should drive long-term bond outperformance (link, Bloomberg) AI: Draft Trump executive order creating a self-regulatory organization for frontier AI developers has stalled amid disagreements and opposition from key tech advisors (The Information) Nvidia to launch an employee-funded political action committee as it steps up its efforts to influence US policy (Reuters) Meta projected it would spend $10B on Anthropic AI tools despite Zuckerberg's public criticism (NY Times) SK Hynix starting work on a $4B advanced memory packaging facility in Indiana (Bloomberg) Fed: Cleveland's Hammack says Fed needs to act now to dampen inflation, does not see policy restrictive when looking at financial conditions (CNBC) KC's Schmid, Chicago's Goolsbee both caution on the inflation landscape (Reuters) Energy: Flow of oil through SoH slowly ratcheting higher with ~6-8M bpd now being shipped, though estimates remain wide and volatile (Bloomberg) Trump administration nearing deal to secure ownership stakes in Venezuelan oil fields, secure 90M barrels of reserves (Axios) Economy: US mortgage rates climb for first time in three weeks to 6.66% (Bloomberg) Washington/Geopolitics: White House has told Mideast mediators it has no interest in going back to the June MOU with Iran (link) Trump says he is not concerned at all about Russia potentially attacking a NATO country (Axios) US facing a critical shortage of interceptor missiles in Europe due to Iran conflict (AP) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: META, NVDA, SKHY, +ANTHROPIC	show story hide story
27-Aug-2026 06:23	Software earnings takeaways upbeat: CrowdStrike takeaways focused on outsized NNARR beat, fourth straight quarterly acceleration in ARR, FY27 NNARR growth guidance raise (above the beat) and AI-specific product (AIDR) monetization. Salesforce boosted by cRPO beat, strongest NNAOV growth in four years, accelerating AI metrics and Claudeforce (partnership with Anthropic that embeds Claude's reasoning into Salesforce data/workflows/governance). Okta a big gainer with takeaways focused on core business strength ahead of AI monetization window in FY28. Veeva another standout on Vault CRM progress and AI momentum with strong early Veeva Falcon adoption. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CRM, CRWD, OKTA, VEEV	show story hide story
27-Aug-2026 06:16	Trump administration considering sweeping tariffs on chips: Politico reported Trump administration considering sweeping new tariffs on semiconductors. Plans under consideration could apply duties to chips, as well as laptops, gaming consoles, and data center servers. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said to favor tying tariff relief to investing in domestic US chip manufacturing, though article noted recent talks more negative for industry, with White House signaling it may no longer support exemptions like those included in January tariffs. Tech industry warned plan could hamstring US AI global leadership, arguing Trump administration's goal of building more components in US could take decades. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Aug-2026 05:52	Nvidia guides for 70%+ revenue growth in FY28: Nvidia delivered another big beat and raise as was widely expected. Takeaways highlighted Data Center strength across customer segments, Vera Rubin ramp ahead of schedule, expanded customer commitments (AWS, OpenAI) and networking strength. Ramp in compute economics a particular bright spot. Biggest positive revolved around guidance for FY28 revenue growth of 70% (vs ~45% consensus), which was explicitly framed as a supply-constrained number (unconstrained demand ~100%). Also provided more color on commitments/financing. GM reset one of the few areas of scrutiny but some thoughts better than feared/removes overhang. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: NVDA	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 15:06	Afternoon headlines: Corporate: Meta settles with states in social-media addiction trial, settlement requires YouTube and TikTok to comply with new industry standards (Reuters, statement) Apple schedules "Surprise and Shine" launch event for 9-Sep, could involve Siri AI and company's first foldable phone (CNBC) Palo Alto Networks considered acquisitions of Datadog, Okta before buying CyberArk (The Information) JPMorgan, other banks considering launching their own stablecoins (link) AI: AI buildout is increasingly morphing into debt boom as hyperscaler capex approaches historic scale (NY Times) Analysts say OpenAI's custom Jalapeño AI chip could weigh on Nvidia's dominance, inference margins (CNBC) Anthropic agrees to spend $45B to rent compute from Nscale, which could IPO next month (Bloomberg) Google introduces new tools to help businesses manage and reduce corporate AI spending (Axios) Datacenter skepticism roiling political races on both the right and the left (Politico) Iran war: Trump says no time schedule for a resumption in the negotiations with Iran (Al Jazeera) Iran's military claims to have reached revenue-sharing agreement with Oman for Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg) US allies are privately warning Hormuz is still likely mined despite Trump's claims (Bloomberg) Energy: Saudi Aramco shifts oil exports outside Strait of Hormuz to avoid risks, 4M barrels sold to China via ship-to-ship transfers (Reuters) U.S. crude oil inventories rose 100K barrels during the week ending 21-Aug, less than expected (Oilprice.com) U.S. diesel stocks are at their lowest seasonal levels since at least the early 1980s (Bloomberg) Massive surge in proposed US gas power plants faces significant uncertainty, speculative development hurdles (Axios) Economy: Data center development is accounting for a growing share of US industrial demand (FT) US core inflation rises 0.2% in July, consumer spending cools after strong start to summer (Bloomberg) Trump considers easing federal regulations on beef processing to support US ranchers (Bloomberg) Markets: Software stocks face extreme volatility driven by AI uncertainty, leveraged trading strategies (Reuters) Geopolitics: Russia's Putin preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine, concluding peace negotiations at a dead end (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, DDOG, GOOGL, META, OKTA, PANW, SMR, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 12:37	Russia reportedly planning escalation in Ukraine; Trump says no timeline to resume Iran talks: WTI crude recovering from session lows after briefly dipping below $80/bbl amid shifting geopolitical developments. Bloomberg reported Russia is preparing to escalate Ukraine war as peace talks collapse, potentially increasing strikes on Kyiv and infrastructure. Note, both sides have stepped up attacks on energy assets over recent months, while report also said Russian officials are increasingly discussing possibility of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort. Meanwhile, Iran/Hormuz developments remain unclear. Reports suggested Iran and Oman could soon open a temporary shipping corridor, while Pakistan cited "significant progress" in talks with Tehran on de-escalation. However, Trump said today he is in "no hurry" to resume Iran talks (Al Jazeera). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 10:00	Meta settles with state AGs in social-media addiction trial: META today announced a settlement in trial brought by 29 state AGs on child social-media addiction claims (Reuters, Bloomberg). While company denied wrongdoing, its release argues teens will benefit from new industry standards incorporating strict (and required) daily time limits, default usage blocks from midnight-6am, muted notifications during school hours, and other changes. Agreed to total payment up to $18B, $12.7B coming over a decade and the remaining ~$5.3B released only after YouTube and TikTok agree to similar implementations and pay the states damages of their own. Added its Q3 guidance remains largely unchanged, though said will accrue a ~$10B legal expense for the quarter. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: META	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 08:53	July core PCE in line; personal spending and income ahead of consensus: July core PCE increased 0.2% m/m, in line with consensus and up from 0.1% in June; headline PCE rose 0.2% vs 0.15% expected and June's 0.1% decline. Annualized core held at 3.3% vs 3.2% expected, while annualized headline also held steady m/m at 3.7%. Personal spending rose 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and June's 0.3%. Personal income increased 0.4% vs 0.2% expected and June's 0.2%. PCE report concludes mostly favorable July inflation data, with CPI in line and PPI cooler than expected, prompting analysts to see less urgency for hikes, though some (notably BofA) still expect additional tightening later this year. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 07:38	Market reaction to Nvidia earnings not expected to be about beat and raise: Nvidia reports Q2 results after the close today. Street widely expecting another big beat and raise on ramp in GB300/Blackwell Ultra shipments and start of next-gen Vera Rubin production. However, previews flagged capex sustainability, financing structure scrutiny and competitive dynamics (custom ASICs/XPUs) as the bigger issues for the stock at this point. Stock, which suffered a seven-day losing streak through Monday, has fallen in each trading session after its past four quarterly reports. Stock is up just over 14% ytd vs the more than 63.5% rally in the SOX. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: NVDA	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 07:12	Bessent's bond market intervention at odds with Fed's rate, balance sheet strategy: Tension between Fed, Treasury strategies in focus after Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond buying intervention. FT cited investors, analysts who warned intervention contradicts Fed's efforts to combat inflation. Noted Bessent's view that US borrowing costs don't reflect underlying fundamentals undercuts Warsh's view that Fed trying not to interfere with market signals. Bessent intervention also seen raising stakes for Warsh at Jackson Hole this week. Some press articles (FT, NY Times) noted Warsh may have to address strategic tensions, while dynamic could ultimately require a new formal Fed-Treasury accord given policy, balance sheet ramifications. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 06:35	Meta discussing possible settlement with state AGs: Bloomberg reported overnight that META has discussed a possible settlement in its ongoing trial on social-media addiction brought by 29 state AGs. However, no details on those discussions. Trial currently in the second week of what could be an 8-10 week duration and holds risk of massive financial penalties for the company. META denies liability but has said it could face a judgment as high as $1.4T (near its current market cap). CEO Zuckerberg also expected to be called to testify. Note reports yesterday Instagram head Adam Mosseri said teens were not opting for a safety feature before making it the default; denied there was any effort to hide data on child safety. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: META	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 06:34	Oil easing again with headlines shifting to diplomatic progress and sanctions vs strikes: Oil easing for the third consecutive session after recent headlines about Mideast diplomatic progress and optimism about Hormuz flows. Multiple reports yesterday about Iran and Oman potentially soon opening a temporary shipping corridor though the SoH, though traffic through the strait was lighter yesterday (Reuters). Pakistan also said yesterday talks with Iran about avoiding further escalation and ending the war had made "significant progress." Axios also reported Secretary of State Rubio telling allies that US "for the time being" may not initiate new strikes against Iran, but push the sanctions approach. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Aug-2026 06:30	Intuit guides for slower revenue growth: Intuit a notable post-earnings decliner after it guided FY27 revenue growth to +9-10%, down from +14% in FY26 and ~200 bp below consensus. Weaker guide largely driven by TurboTax DIY deceleration to just +2-3% growth vs +7% in FY26. AI disruption theme has received some attention with share loss of price-sensitive, low-end filers. Management, which talked up its own AI efforts (building fully AI-native tax experience) did not commit to whether reacceleration would be visible in FY27. Also lowered 3-year growth targets across both major segments. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: INTU	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 15:05	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Iran and Oman propose temporary joint shipping lane in Hormuz (CNBC, X) Trump says US Navy has cleared all mines from key shipping lane in Strait of Hormuz (Axios) Trade/tariffs: Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on ~$20B in US imports effective 8-Sep (FT) AI: Anthropic likely to tell investors its total addressable market is ~$30T, besting SpaceX's claim of a record $28.5T actionable TAM (Reuters) Google Gemini expands its Enterprise AI platform with new tools for lawyers, law firms (Reuters) OpenAI claims its custom Jalapeno chip outperforms Nvidia processors in power efficiency, response speed (Bloomberg) Corporate: Apple unveils new Mac Mini, Mac Studio models with updated chips and AI upgrades (CNBC) United Airlines CEO anticipates gradual airfare increases as travel demand remains strong (Reuters) SpaceX planning to spend $100B building a third Starship launch site, this one in southern Louisiana (Bloomberg) Markets: Demand for high-risk leveraged single-stock ETFs cools as market saturation triggers wave of fund closures (Reuters) Options traders prepare for increased market volatility ahead of the US midterm elections (Bloomberg) Geopolitics: CIA Director Ratcliffe makes unannounced visit to Moscow, departs four hours later (CBS News) Central banks: Boston Fed's Collins says it would be appropriate to tighten policy soon if sustained inflation progress doesn't materialize (link) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, SPCX, UAL, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 13:30	AI trade bounce, retail weak: AI trade an outperformer today, led by semis. Follows last week's selloff, which spilled over to Monday. Recent weakness viewed as largely devoid of fundamental influences, though it did seem to invite more backfitting with the usual suspects, including financing, data center backlash and open-weight competition. Nothing specific mentioned behind today's bounce. Retail a notable laggard despite another move lower in oil and rates. Earnings calendar an overhang with the nearly 30% selloff in Dick's Sporting Goods. Big pickup in retail earnings over the next few days with several of those names mentioned as having better setups. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 12:13	Iran and Oman propose temporary joint shipping lane in Hormuz: Oil under pressure after Oman and Iran outlined a phased framework to restore safe navigation through Hormuz, including temporary joint shipping lane (link).Unclear what role the US has in the talks; recall Trump last week expressed frustration that Oman was nearing a deal with Iran to manage Strait traffic (AP). Comes alongside overnight reports of "significant progress" in Iran-Pakistan talks toward de-escalation and reopening Hormuz. Crude extended decline after media reported Pakistan's Army Chief carried a US sanctions-relief offer for Iran, though White House official reportedly told Al Jazeera this morning no talks with Iran are underway or scheduled. (Reuters, Al Jazeera). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 11:28	Canada hits US with tariffs of up to 50% on hundreds of US products: Canadian PM Carney announced $20B in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, matching scale of new levies imposed by Trump (NY Times, Bloomberg). New Canadian duties, which take effect 8-Sep, include 50% tariffs on US steel, aluminum, furniture, electronics, impacting 6% of total Canada goods imports from the US. Economists have warned that retaliatory measures may have limited impact on US economy while potentially harming Canadian companies. However, Canada also announced $5.4B support package to provide liquidity, grants to businesses affected by trade conflict. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 10:16	August Consumer Confidence misses as future expectations soften: August Consumer Confidence fell m/m to 89.4 from prior revised 90.2 (was 90.8), missed consensus for 92.0. Present situations index up 6.8 points m/m to 121.2. However, headline decline centered on expectations index, down 5.8 points to 68.2. Labor market differential widened by 4.8 points as more said jobs plentiful and fewer said jobs hard to get, though inflation expectations firmed slightly. August Richmond Fed Index down one point m/m to 4.0. Employment index turned negative. Prices paid and received both up m/m, though both 12 month prices outlook slightly softer. July new home sales down 10.5% m/m to 607K SAAR, missing 620K consensus and slowest since January. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 08:38	Dick's Sporting Goods pressured by earnings miss and guidance cut driven by Foot Locker: Dick's Sporting Goods under pressure following weaker-than-expected Q2 sales and EPS. Company noted that as the Q progressed, conditions across portions of the athletic footwear and apparel marketplace became increasingly promotional. Flagged outsized impact on Foot Locker (core Dick's a bit better than expected). Cut FY EPS guidance by ~18% at midpoint. Expectations were low into the print given widely discussed footwear headwinds, though magnitude of the guidance cut surprised. Follows some high-profile retail disappointments last week, particularly Walmart. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 06:40	China says it may retaliate if US implements sanctions over Iran: Following Treasury Secretary Bessent's Operation Economic Outcast announcement Monday, Beijing threatened to retaliate if US expands secondary sanctions against Chinese firms linked to Iran. FT cited Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson who said it will oppose what it calls illicit unilateral sanctions, said pressing task is to deescalate instead. Article said China has setup strident anti-sanctions regime, could take countermeasures against individuals or organizations that assist with foreign restrictions on Chinese companies, supply chains. Analysts remain skeptical US will follow through targeting Chinese firms, however, as doing so could trigger broader economic shock, fracture bilateral relations ahead of September Trump-Xi summit (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Aug-2026 06:16	Druckenmiller pushes back against Treasury buyback boost: Famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller (considered to be one of Treasury Secretary's Bessent's mentors) criticized Treasury's recently announced buyback boost (Reuters , Bloomberg). Pushed back against the liquidity management narrative initially highlighted by Bessent and warned that suppression removes the only real fiscal discipline check. Expressed concern Treasury could get stuck in a policy escalation cycle. Highlighted need for fiscal/entitlement reform (which he has done for a long time). Fits with market skepticism about the ability of the buyback boost to reverse the backup in yields given structural forces already at work. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 15:05	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: US Treasury sanctions ~60 Iran-linked entities, individuals, and vessels across nuclear, cyber, missile, and oil networks (CNBC, Axios) US economic pressure on Iran contributing to worsening fuel shortages and lines at gas stations across the country (Bloomberg) Saudi ship reportedly attacked by Yemen's Houthis near port city Yanbu (Reuters) Markets: Treasury could use its ~$1T General Account to help fund purchases of government bonds (CNBC) Goldman, Wells Fargo see Treasury buybacks supporting liquidity but not a lasting decline in long-term yields (Bloomberg) Prediction markets highlight skepticism surrounding Treasury's ability to push down yields (CNBC) Bond traders increase risk measures for Broadcom as it backs massive AI financing deals (Bloomberg) Trade / Tariffs: Trump says US will raise tariffs on imports of cars, trucks and, auto parts from Canada to 50% on 1-Jan 27 (CNBC) Trump administration to impose 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods related to allegations of excess manufacturing capacity (Bloomberg) Mexico says it's still "optimistic" on US trade deal following collapse of US-Canada talks (Bloomberg) Corporate: Google Cloud partnering with Verizon on scaling enterprise AI modernization (link) Netflix reportedly considering opening its app to other streamers (NY Times) Zillow reaches settlement with FTC, five states over Redfin rental listings agreement (link) Energy: Total says it is still profitably moving oil through Hormuz despite $20M added cost (Reuters, Bloomberg) US oil stockpiles in US SPR fell last week to lowest level since Nov-82 (Reuters) Washington: Trump administration is proposing a new $100K fee for H-1B workers hired within the US (Newsweek) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AVGO, GOOGL, NFLX, VZ, Z	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 13:43	Bessent announces "Operation Economic Outcast" against Iran, not much clarity around China: In press conference after discussing "economic D-Day" against Iran in recent days, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced "Operation Economic Outcast," introducing sanctions against nearly 60 Iranian entities, individuals, and vessels, as well as new sectoral sanctions targeting digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping (FT, CNBC). When asked specifically whether China would be included given its economic relationship with Iran (China purchases ~90% of Iranian oil exports), Bessent said every country should be prepared to face US sanctions. Bessent also asked specifically about targeting Chinese banks, though responded no one above the reach of US sanctions. There had been some skepticism recently whether China would be included in any US plan as Beijing could retaliate, hit US economy months before midterms (Bloomberg). Beijing did say this weekend it is actively committed to promoting peace talks, however (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 11:18	Momentum weak again: Momentum the notable underperformer after coming under renewed pressure last week. No great explanation for the move and still talk about backfitting narratives to price action that does not seem to be driven by fundamentals. Some blame has gone to the weakness in Samsung Electronics overnight on what has been flagged as an underwhelming capital return announcement from late last week. The weekend headlines touched on a number of widely AI discussed themes, including financing, capex, open-weight competition and frontier challenges. Some talk of hesitancy to do much into Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, as well as negative seasonality. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 10:00	Not much change in overall positioning, HFs selling stocks, specs buying gold: Deutsche Bank said its measure of aggregate equity positioning fell slightly last week but stayed modestly overweight (0.18sd, 52^nd percentile). Goldman Sachs said that after consistently buying equities since late July, HFs unloaded at fastest pace since Liberation Day week last week. Noted 9 of 11 sectors were net sold, led by Tech, Industrials, Utilities and Healthcare. Firm also pointed out that over past three weeks, speculators purchased a record $22.2B of gold futures, representing largest notional increase in more than a decade. Added this has pushed net length to 93^rd percentile on a two-year lookback. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 08:37	US-backed Hormuz corridor seeing rising traffic, though tracking gap remains wide: Ships are reportedly increasingly using a US-backed corridor through Hormuz, weakening Iran's grip on the waterway. Axios reported ~40 tankers carrying ~16M barrels transited Friday night, though tracking data showed just 17 commodity vessels over the entire weekend (Reuters). Discrepancy partly reflects "dark" shipping (transponder off), though the widening gap between US claims and tracking data is starting to draw more attention. Recall last week Energy Secretary Wright said 7-day average flows through Hormuz reached ~9M bpd vs commercial tracker estimates of ~2-6M bpd (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 06:47	US hits Canada with 50% tariffs, Trump threatens expansion to autos, steel in January: US and Canada trade talks collapsed Friday, triggering US 50% tariff on ~$20B of Canadian goods as of Saturday (Axios, CNBC). Trump also said Monday that tariffs on Canadian cars, auto parts, steel to increase to 50% as of 1-Jan (FT). USTR Greer said Sunday no new planned talks with Canada. Canadian PM Carney said Canada to enact dollar-for-dollar retaliation effective 8-Sep. Focus now on economic challenges to US economy from trade war with Canada ahead of midterms, which could add to inflation, affordability challenges (FT, NY Times). However, delayed Canadian implementation, broadening of tariffs to key autos, steel sectors seen as offering time for resolution. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 06:44	Nvidia reports on Wednesday: Nvidia earnings on 26-Aug the next big area of focus for AI. Preview commentary not surprisingly upbeat, with focus on tight GPU supply/demand dynamics/Rubin ramp tailwind. Market particularly interested in getting more color around off-balance-sheet commitments. Some concern about the financing/"central bank for AI" narrative getting more attention than the compute/capex demand side of the story. Stock fell for a sixth straight day last Friday, its longest losing streak in four years (The Market Ear). Stock has fallen in each trading session after its past four quarterly reports. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 06:22	AI headlines focus on Nvidia price hikes, open-weight frontier model price cuts, equity supply, capex: Nvidia reportedly raising for prices for servers containing its AI chips by 15%+ to help offset surge in memory costs (Bloomberg). Nvidia also reportedly reached $6B licensing deal with AI startup Poolside to build an open-weight model (link). Open-weight models continue to be flagged as competitive threat for frontier labs. Anthropic has reportedly seen disappointing demand for Fable 5 (FT) while OpenAI cut pricing for GPT-5.6 Sol by more than 20% (Reuters). On the financing front, Alibaba announced $10B+ share sale to boost AI investments (FT). Another report discussed continued upward revision pressure on Wall Street's AI capex estimates (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Aug-2026 06:08	Bessent set to announce economic D-Day against Iran, though unclear if China will be included: Treasury Secretary Bessent set to announce new economic measures against Iran Monday (13 ET). Writing in FT, Bessent claimed "economic D-Day" the greatest financial pressure ever marshalled against any adversary. Warned nations that continue to transact with Iran (including petroleum) will face severe financial consequences and global isolation. Said goal is to achieve total financial isolation of the regime to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions, prevent need for American force. However, Bessent's statement did not include any mention of China, which buys 90% of Iran's oil exports. Last week, there had been some skepticism China would be included in any US plan as Beijing could retaliate, hitting US economy months before midterms (Bloomberg). Beijing did say this weekend it is actively committed to promoting peace talks, however (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 11:05	Bearish talking points for week-ended 21-Aug: Rates quickly gave back a big chunk of the initial buyback boost rally. While Street takeaways acknowledged the signaling dynamic and its potential ability to slow the backup, they also highlighted skepticism about the ability to reverse the move given structural forces already at work. Most of the discussion revolved around deficit dynamics, though also more focus on corporate supply from the AI capex boom. Momentum factor a big decliner this week with semis and some other pockets of the AI trade under heavy pressure on Tuesday and Wednesday. No great explanation for the move with some discussion about it being more about quant/systematic flows. However, also some talk about disappointment surrounding the latest ARR numbers attached to Anthropic (and OpenAI). Data center backlash flagged as well. Busy week of retail earnings largely disappointed, highlighted by Walmart, which fell more than 9% after reporting Q2 ex-fuel comps +2.6%, which lagged +3.5% consensus. Pharmacy pricing legislation a headwind but takeaways also flagged continued fuel cost pressure, softer low-income consumer sentiment and waning tailwind from the outsized tax refunds earlier this year. TJX and Advance Auto Parts some of the other high-profile retail earnings disappointments this week. TJX fell more than 4% on Wednesday despite its beat and raise with the Marmaxx comp miss the notable area of scrutiny (execution/mix issues flagged). Advance Auto Parts fell nearly 25% on Wednesday as DIY spending remained under pressure. Oil rallied on dampened hopes surrounding any credible near-term diplomatic off-ramps for the US-Iran conflict, while there continued to be more attention on the spillover risks for global growth from the surge in diesel prices. Headlines this week revolved around Trump's comments that the two sides are not talking and that the US is set to further ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran. AI financing headlines continued to attract some negative spin (vs the still favorable invest-to-meet-demand narrative) from a number of angles, including outsized off-balance sheet commitments, supply pressure and circularity. Report discussed how big tech companies disclosed $3T of off-balance-sheet commitments, mostly related to AI, in latest securities filings. Google went to Australia for its latest bond sale. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 11:04	Bullish talking points for week-ended 21-Aug: Big healthcare rally on cancer vaccine news. Moderna surged 177% on Wednesday (and Merck jumped more than 12.5%) on news personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran), given in combination with Keytruda after surgery, significantly exceeded Keytruda alone at keeping high-risk melanoma from coming back/spreading. Takeaways focused on platform validation and potential read-through to other cancer types. Treasury took another big/surprising (signaling) step to dampen upward pressure on yields. Boosted size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities to at least $4B. Release noted Treasury could go even bigger and Bessent reiterated this dynamic the next day and talked up his toolkit. Also noted fiscal consolidation push in the works. Shift in Strait of Hormuz narrative with multiple reports (Axios, CNN) that the US has quietly taken control of the southern lane and established a convoy operation that is moving ~10M bpd, roughly half pre-war level, with some days reaching 15-20M barrels. That compares to recent updates from the market trackers that put the figure closer to 5M bpd. Still some bright spots from Walmart despite Q2 comp miss. Positive takeaways revolved around continued and broad-based share gains (funded by price investments), US comps excluding health & wellness +3.4%, momentum behind higher-margin ads/marketplace/membership revenue streams and higher FY guidance. Target and Ross Stores the post-earnings standouts in retail this week. Capital return headlines highlighted very favorable fundamental backdrop for memory (and memory held up better than broader AI trade). SK Hynix announced plans to repurchase/cancel ~$29B of shares over three months. On Friday, Samsung Electronics said it would repurchase up to nearly $80B worth of stock while it also announced plans to pay nearly $22B in dividends in Q3. First batch of August regional manufacturing data surprised to the upside. Philly Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 while the six-months ahead business conditions index increased to highest level since August of 1983. Empire manufacturing increased to the highest level since December 2021. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 10:01	August flash PMIs show faster services growth, stronger hiring, easing price pressures: August flash composite PMI printed at 56.0 vs consensus 54.3, hitting a 52-month high; manufacturing PMI came in at 53.2 vs consensus 54.4 and July's 53.9; services PMI posted 56.8 vs consensus 53.0 and July's 54.6. Services expanded at the fastest pace since Dec-24, while manufacturing output growth slowed to a 13-month low. Employment rose sharply, with payroll growth strongest since Jan-25, led by services. Price pressures eased, with input cost inflation slowing to lowest since February and the start of the Iran war, while selling price inflation fell to slowest since Nov-25. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 07:15	China's restrained crude buying continues to cushion Iran war impact: China remains a key focus in the broader oil market. Bloomberg reported this morning that Beijing continues to hold back on crude purchases as prices remain above $90/bbl (Bloomberg). Rather than chase higher-priced barrels, refiners are leaning on inventories alongside lower refinery runs and export curbs. Analysts have highlighted China's continued restraint in crude imports as a key factor limiting the Iran war's impact on global oil markets, helping keep prices well below initially feared levels. Note, China did return to modest stockpiling in July, though imports remained well below pre-war levels. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 06:44	Good week for debasement trade: Debasement trade a big beneficiary of Treasury's surprise buyback boost announcement to support the long end. Gold currently on track to finish up over 4.5% this week, its third straight weekly gain. Silver up over 6.5% this week. Precious metals miners have had an even better with GDX (gold miners ETF) up ~11% for the week heading into Friday trading. Crypto another standout with Bitcoin over $75K early Friday and on track for a weekly gain of more than 20%, which would be its biggest in more than three years (Trump dynamics also supportive). Dollar index currently on track for a 1%+ weekly pullback. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 06:39	Simmering discontent over datacenter construction may play out at the polls: Continued drumbeat of headlines this week about rising popular resistance to datacenter construction and impacts on the political landscape. PA Gov. Shapiro (D) Tuesday announced requirements that new projects adhere to power and water guidelines; followed TX Gov. Abbott (R) earlier this month ordering a comprehensive audit of ongoing datacenter projects. Axios reported GOP strategists warning outcome of an OH House race could impact political prospects for datacenters nationwide. That said, Goldman Sachs argued PA developments (like those in TX) likely to hamper speculative and undercapitalized projects rather than high-quality, large-scale developments. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 06:22	Ross Stores a bright spot following a somewhat underwhelming batch of retail results this week: Q2 comps increased a better-than-expected 10%, largely driven by traffic (noted gains in both new customers and increased existing customer engagement), ahead of the +6-7% guide and ~+7.5% consensus. Marked second straight Q of double-digit growth and company noted sequential improvement as Q progressed. Also highlighted continued momentum in August and raised 2H guidance despite more difficult comparisons. Takeaways highlighted upbeat tone from management, share gains, traction behind initiatives, secular tailwind for off-price segment. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 06:21	Nvidia and Warsh on tap for next week: Nvidia earnings on 26-Aug the next big area of focus for AI. Preview commentary not surprisingly upbeat, with focus on tight GPU supply/demand dynamics. Market particularly interested in getting more color around off-balance-sheet commitments. Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on 28-Aug. Not expected to provide anything meaningfully incremental on reaction function or forward guidance. Broader uncertainty dynamic surrounding the Warsh Fed has put some focus on potential risk from both dovish and hawkish interpretations of his comments. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Aug-2026 06:14	Trump administration to outline economic pressure against Iran, its trading partners (except maybe China): After Trump threatened "economic D-Day" against Iran and economic consequences for any country providing lifeline to Iran earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Bessent said Thursday he would unveil new measures targeting Iran on Monday. Analysts said the announcement suggests little appetite from Trump to escalate militarily (NY Times). However, no detail yet on whether China would be included in economic sanctions, given it buys 90% of Iranian petroleum exports. Some skepticism China would be included as Beijing could retaliate, hitting US economy just months before midterms, though dynamic still adding risks ahead of Xi's Washington visit in September (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 15:08	Afternoon headlines: Markets: Treasury Secretary Bessent signals potential for larger Treasury buybacks, argues yields not reflecting underlying fundamentals (CNBC) Treasurys' traditional safe-haven status showing signs of erosion (link) Amid AI-linked profit surge, analysts warn reliance on mark-to-market gains reduces earnings visibility (Reuters) Foreign governments increasingly reluctant to finance growing US budget deficit (Axios) AI: Anthropic expects an IPO as large as or larger than SpaceX's record-setting offering (Bloomberg) Nvidia planning to start small-batch shipments of AI chip specifically designed for China by end of year (The Information) Micron plans to invest $10B in new Idaho research lab to advance memory technology (Reuters) Corporate: Super Micro probe clears senior management of involvement in illegal chip shipments to China (Bloomberg) Intercontinental Exchange considers new investment in Polymarket, which is seeking valuation over $20B (Bloomberg) Shein reportedly delaying its Hong Kong IPO to 1-Sep (Reuters) Iran war: Treasury Secretary Bessent says US likely won't restart large-scale combat against Iran as it ramps economic pressure (CNBC) Central banks: Treasury's buyback decision sparks debate over whether it has more influence on credit conditions than Fed (Reuters) Economy: CEOs are touting AI productivity gains while distancing from job-cut narrative (Axios) US workers face record healthcare cost increases as employers struggle with unsustainable insurance premiums (link) Energy: Western oil refinery capacity decline amplifies energy security concerns sparked by the Iran war (FT) Trade/tariffs: Canadian officials, USTR Greer meet again to try and hammer out a trade deal before Saturday's deadline (NY Times) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: ICE, MU, NVDA, SMCI, +ANTHROPIC	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 11:55	Rates give back chunk of buyback boost rally: Long-end rates up ~6 bp after a more than 10 bp rally on Wednesday following Treasury's buyback boost announcement. While Street takeaways acknowledged the signaling dynamic and its potential ability to slow the backup, they also highlighted some healthy skepticism about the ability to reverse the move given the structural forces (not limited to US) already at work. There were also some similar concerns surrounding a potential reduction in the size of long-term auctions, which could be announced in November. Other concerns revolved around potential for Treasury policy uncertainty to drive risk premia higher. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 11:41	Latest Fedspeak mixed as officials consider whether policy tightening needed: Speaking to Bloomberg, San Francisco Fed's Daly (non-voter) said policy in a good place, sees no evidence supporting earlier hike. Daly said she expects inflation shocks to fade, has not seen any other concerning signs around inflation. Also noted rising bond yields do no signal policy shift, and that it's too early to discuss Treasury issuance patterns. Speaking to CNBC, St. Louis' Musalem (non-voter) more hawkish, saying policy still accommodative, policy rate in real terms below market interest rates. Also said underlying inflation absent supply shocks still running at 2.5-3%, and that Fed's best contribution to economic growth is getting back to 2% level. Musalem said he would have hiked in August, but not going to prejudge September decision. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 11:22	Bessent says Treasury could go bigger on buybacks: Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC buybacks could be bigger than the updated $4B per operation announced yesterday. However, no surprise there as this optionality was highlighted in the statement and takeaways were fairly uniform in terms of expectations for Treasury to do more. Bessent argued buyback boost in response to poor liquidity at long end though also highlighted the widely discussed signaling dynamic. In response to structural forces pushing up yields, Bessent previewed an increased focus on fiscal consolidation, eventual reprieve from tariff reset and described corporate supply as yield agnostic (and suggested corporates raise in belly vs long end of curve). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 10:53	Rough day for retail: Retail a notable underperformer, led by big post-earnings pullbacks in Walmart, Advance Auto Parts and Coty. JD Sports another laggard in Europe after reporting a slowdown in sales growth. Follows a few other underwhelming consumer-facing prints from earlier this week (though some reporters were cushioned by Wednesday's rate developments), along with the weaker July retail sales data last week. Consumer resilience theme still seems to be largely intact though some companies have flagged more promotional environment and need to invest tariff rebates in price. Also some recent talk about waning tailwind from outsized tax refunds. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 08:47	Jobless claims steady; Philly Fed Index shows rising employment, falling prices: Initial claims came in at 206K vs consensus 210K and previous week's revised 212K (was 209K); 4-week moving average was 204K, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's. Initial claims now hovering just below midpoint of this year's 189K-230K range. Continuing claims came in at 1799K vs consensus 1790K and prior week's revised 1781K (was 1777K). Elsewhere, August Philly Fed Index posted +47.4 vs consensus +25.0 and July's +41.4, highest since Apr-21. New orders and shipments eased but remained elevated, while employment hit its highest since Apr-22. Both price indexes fell to their lowest since February. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 08:42	Walmart under pressure following Q2 comp miss: Walmart under pressure following earnings. Q2 results described as messy given tariff refund impact dynamics. Big area of scrutiny has been US ex-fuel comps +2.6%, which lagged +3.5% consensus, driven by traffic +1.5% and average ticket +1.1%. Also some scrutiny surrounding softer Q3 EPS guidance and magnitude of the FY EPS guidance raise, though tariff refund reinvestments flagged. High multiple once again mentioned as an overhang. More positive commentary revolved around continued share gains, strength in Advertising, Membership and Marketplace. US comps +3.4% when excluding health & wellness. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 06:52	July FOMC minutes seen as less hawkish than expected: Street takeaways from Wednesday's July FOMC minutes said tone slightly less hawkish than expected. Cited staff economic outlook that inflation expected to step down next year as tariff impact, energy price spike wanes, and that "many," or less than a majority, said policy tightening likely necessary if inflation did not decline, suggesting risk toward hold rather than hike. Economists also said some participants noted financial conditions had tightened between June and July meetings, pushing back on "sufficiently restrictive" concerns. However, minutes fairly stale given macro data since meeting, while rate hike odds through year-end (~22 bp) little changed, but still holding near lowest level since mid-June, before hawkish-leaning June FOMC meeting. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 06:34	Oil now up for nine of past 11 sessions: Oil today reacting to Trump's latest Iran threats but a lot of other themes at play recently. Reports yesterday US has been helping guide tankers through the Strait of Hormuz via a southern route; officials saying shipments up to about half the prewar volume (NY Times, Axios). But also increasing focus on higher crack spreads, possible spillover effects from rising diesel prices, and US refiners working flat-out to keep markets supplied. US continues to distribute crude from the SPR, though stocks now at four-decade lows and raising worries about the reserve's structural integrity (CNBC). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 06:28	Treasury buyback boost continues to reverberate: Wednesday's announcement from Treasury that it will increase long end liquidity buybacks by at least $2B per operation through early November continues to dominate the headlines. Move widely viewed as more about signaling than duration removal. Street has debated whether this will be followed by a reduction in 20- and 30-year auction sizes at November refunding. Biggest area of debate seems to be about effectiveness. Some of the more skeptical takeaways have focused on the lackluster track record of similar operations, while biggest issue revolves around the structural drivers of higher long-term yields. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 06:17	Big two-day momentum selloff: Momentum factor under pressure on Tuesday and Wednesday after a Monday rally. Goldman Sachs noted its TMT Momentum Pair was down ~7% in two days. No great explanation for the move with some discussion around it being more about quant/systematic flows. However, also some talk about disappointment surrounding the recent ARR numbers attached to both Anthropic and OpenAI. In terms of the former, the $65B was said to lag other sources (including Yipit) that were in the $75-80B range. Data center backlash (PA latest) also flagged, while rotations also in play on Wednesday's Treasury news. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Aug-2026 06:05	Trump says US to launch "economic D-Day" against Iran: Trump said overnight US mounting economic operation against Iran, threatening severe consequences for any nation that continues commercial ties with the country (Bloomberg, link). Comes after countries including UAE officially suspended commercial ties with Tehran, though puts focus on China, which is buyer of nearly all Iranian crude exports. Latest threat comes as US and Iran have made little progress on any credible near-term diplomatic offramp, even after latest 60-day MoU expired Monday. Oil higher following Trump's latest threat, WTI back above $86, at MTD high. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: Corporate: Moderna cancer trial marks first successful Phase 3 study of an individualized mRNA-based cancer vaccine (NBC) Google partners with Marvell to develop custom AI chips in deal worth up to $12.2B (FT) Amazon says it plans to offer drone deliveries in ~500 U.S. cities and towns by the end of 2026 (CNBC) Markets: US Treasury doubles long-term bond buybacks to stabilize markets amid rising borrowing costs (FT, Bloomberg) Retail investors maintain interest in AI stocks though increasing downside protection (CNBC) Goldman Sachs says PE firms holding $1.5T in dry powder preparing to join $3.5T global dealmaking surge (Bloomberg) Carvana shares rebound as reports clarify Mark Walter's stake is pledged as collateral (Bloomberg) Fed: Fed sees need for hike if inflation does not cool, though most expect step down in inflation into year-end (CNBC) Boston Fed paper says higher US productivity has blunted full inflationary impact of Trump's tariffs (Reuters) US-Iran: UAE trade embargo on Iran may prove to be more financially harmful to Tehran than US and EU sanctions (Bloomberg) Energy: US navy shepherded ~5M bpd out of the Persian Gulf in July using routes close to Oman (NY Times) US crude oil inventories saw a massive increase of 4.4M barrels during the week ending 14-Aug (Oilprice.com) Trade/tariffs: US and Canadian negotiators meet again as they work to finalize a deal to avoid threatened 50% tariffs (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, CVNA, GOOGL, MRK, MRNA, MRVL...(more)	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 14:17	July FOMC minutes offer few surprises; focus shifts to Warsh at Jackson Hole: Nothing narrative-changing from Fed's July FOMC minutes, with many participants saying further tightening could be needed if inflation fails to decline and several noting price pressures remained broad-based. However, most anticipated inflation would step down over the rest of the year. Inflation forecasts were little changed from June, though the economic outlook slightly weaker, while job market remained stable. Warsh also asked for comment on reducing the FOMC schedule to six meetings per year. Minutes somewhat stale following softer July data, with focus shifting to Warsh's Jackson Hole speech next week. September hike odds remain little changed around 35%. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 12:43	Momentum lags again: Momentum factor on the defensive for a second straight session despite the favorable buyback news surrounding SK Hynix. Big tech and broadening out trade outperforming. Yesterday's pullback deemed to be largely devoid any meaningful fundamental influences (quant/systematic flows). However, some firms mentioned that the Anthropic $65B ARR headline was viewed as disappointing. While it has not really received much attention today, another report highlighted some disappointment with the 18% q/q revenue growth (to $6.7B) in Q2 at OpenAI. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 12:42	Busy day of consumer-facing earnings reports: Lowe's reversed initial pullback from comp miss and FY guide down as expectations were low into the print and housing helped by today's rate rally. Target also reversed early weakness with takeaways positive on traffic-led comp momentum and overall turnaround traction. Estee Lauder a big post-earnings gainer with company calling out NA and China momentum and margin recovery. TJX a laggard with beat and raise overshadowed by deceleration at Marmaxx. La-Z-Boy a big decliner on weaker fiscal Q2 guidance, soft wholesale, margin headwinds from investments. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 12:17	Analysts warn of risks if Treasury buyback strategy fails to stick: Deutsche Bank argued Wednesday's Treasury announcement to increase buybacks at long-end similar to Fed's Operation Twist, and along with encouragement to use FIMA facility for FX reserves, suggests soft-form financial repression policies to contain long-end. Argued move dollar negative, particularly if Fed does not recognize buyback as factor driving easier financial conditions. EvercoreISI argued buyback changes almost nothing in terms of fundamentals, does not address need to finance growing hyperscaler debt, government deficits, though argued move could backfire if impact fades quickly. Following this morning's announcement, the 30Y yield fell ~10 bp to 5.20% after recently rising above 5.30% for first time in 19 years. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 09:48	Big healthcare rally on cancer vaccine news: Moderna a huge gainer (up ~100%) and Merck a notable outperformer on news personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran), given in combination with Keytruda after surgery, significantly exceeded Keytruda alone at keeping high-risk melanoma from coming back or spreading. Marked first-ever positive Phase 3 trial for this kind of personalized cancer vaccine. Some discussion about how full data were not released (expected at upcoming medical conference). Takeaways focused on platform validation and potential read-through to other cancer types. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 08:57	Treasury boosts support for longer-term bonds: Treasury announced this morning that it is increasing the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities. Noted current maximum size of $2B per operation will ramp up to at least $4B per operation. Move likely to be flagged as largely symbolic, but comes amid a flurry of headlines highlighting concerns about the elevated global long-term rate backdrop. Fiscal dynamics and heavy corporate supply related to the AI capex boom among the key areas of scrutiny. Also some focus on oil/geopolitics and Fed reaction function uncertainty. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
19-Aug-2026 07:36	Wednesday morning check-in: Rate stabilization: Rate stabilization in focus for a second straight session. Has come despite a continued wave of headlines blaming the elevated long-term rate backdrop on fiscal, corporate supply pressure, Fed uncertainty and oil/geopolitics (fiscal and corporate supply getting the most scrutiny). Latest report discussed how expectations for continued upward pressure on yields have become the consensus view on the Street. Some talk stretched short positioning may be limiting further pressure. Also a bit more focus (from an equity/risk perspective) on the more benign resilient growth dynamic (underpinned by still tight credit spreads). Lowe's cuts guidance: Lowe's beat on Q2 EPS, though partly driven by tariff refund. Comps increased +0.2%, below the +0.5% consensus and the +1.7% reported by Home Depot yesterday. However, some preview commentary had flagged buyside expectations for a negative comp. Company highlighted strength in Pro, online and home services, though also flagged persistent DIY macro pressures. Guided FY comps, sales, margins and EPS to bottom end of prior range after Home Depot reiterated its FY outlook (with help from tariff refunds). Target beats but bar was high: Target Q2 EPS beat by 6%, excluding tariff refunds. GMs expanded by 100 bp y/y, excluding tariff refunds. Comps increased +3.8% vs the +2.4% consensus, with traffic +3.6% the key tailwind. Company said topline strength was broad-based across sales channels, demographics, merchandise categories, and across the Q. Food and beauty businesses among the standouts, while apparel and home categories lagged. Raised FY sales guidance, while GM and EPS guidance also went higher, even when excluding tariff refunds. However, previews and early takeaways highlighted high bar into the print (stock +56% ytd). Big SK Hynix buyback: Following the close in South Korea (where Kospi lost nearly 6% and SK Hynix fell nearly 10%), SK Hynix announced plans to repurchase/cancel 40T (~$29B) of shares over three months. Represents ~3.3% of total shares outstanding. Also said it would return at least 50% of cumulative FCF generated for 2025-27, up from prior target of within 50%. Company said recent stock price undervalued compared to its intrinsic value and noted it continues to deliver record-breaking financial performance, maintaining its leadership in the AI memory market. Momentum factor volatility (and shifting composition): Momentum factor remains volatile. No great explanation for either Monday's rally or Tuesday's selloff (which featured somewhat similar headlines/narratives). JPMorgan said quant / systematic players were likely a factor and noted no signs of anything structural. Goldman Sachs pointed out that there have been over 20 one-day 5% selloffs in its High Beta Momentum basket this year, more than last five years combined. Noted 12 momentum remains largely the same from a fundamental perspective in terms of being highly correlated with the AI trade and semis vs software. However, also highlighted early signs of a shift in underlying composition. No US-Iran talks, attacks on shipping pick up, diesel surge: Middle East somewhat on the back burner from a risk sentiment standpoint with the US focused on inflicting economic rather than military pain on Iran. However, no talks taking place (Reuters), adding to concerns about any credible near-term diplomatic off-ramps. In addition, Iran has stepped up its attacks on shipping in the SoH (link), targeted UAE for first time since May (Bloomberg) and is reportedly considering targeting US assets in Europe if Trump escalates the conflict (FT). When it comes to energy market, more focus on surging diesel prices related to refining capacity constraints (FT). July FOMC minutes out this afternoon: July FOMC minutes out at 14:00 today. Minutes take on heightened importance with the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's reaction function. However, expected to be less relevant in the wake of the softer batch of July data and dampened Fed tightening odds, and with bigger focus on Warsh's JH speech next week. FT recently reported that Warsh is expected to use the speech to explain the intellectual framework behind his push to reshape the Fed. Noted potential for clarification on areas where his own messaging has missed the mark. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Aug-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: AI: Anthropic seeks to expand credit facility beyond $10B as it prepares for upcoming IPO (Bloomberg) OpenAI is temporarily slowing scaling of frontier training to shore up security and monitoring (link, Time) OpenAI launches "ChatGPT for Teens" featuring stronger guardrails around high-risk topics (Reuters) Etched valuation doubles to $21B as investors bet on specialized AI inference chips (Reuters) PA Gov. Shapiro looking to require new datacenters to meet stringent electricity/water usage guidelines (Washington Post) Corporate: Trial against Meta brought by 29 states opens today, plaintiffs argue platforms were designed in ways that harm kids' mental health (Reuters) Apple announces changes to app store fees in Europe to settle dispute with European Union (Reuters) KKR reportedly submitted $9B takeover offer at $42.50 per share for UGI Corp (Bloomberg) Disney's ABC sues FCC, asking a judge to block review on free-speech grounds (Politico) US-Iran: Trump says no ongoing dialogue with Iran to end the war, and no discussions scheduled (Reuters) Pentagon is considering scaling back Gulf presence once Iran war concludes (Washington Post) Ship struck by projectile in Strait of Hormuz as maritime traffic continues to decline (NY Times) Economy: AI could help improve US fiscal trajectory, though a lot depends on how it reshapes labor market (NY Times) Port of Los Angeles sees second-busiest July ever as importers look to move cargo during windows of opportunity (Bloomberg) US industrial production up for second month driven by continued strength in manufacturing (Bloomberg) US pending home sales drop to weakest since start of the year (Bloomberg) Markets: Rising Treasury yields signal investor caution over growing US debt and deficit levels (Reuters) Energy: Saudi Arabia, UAE pushing to relocate oil reserves to Japan and South Korea to dampen supply chain risks (NY Times) Trade/tariffs: Canada faces midnight deadline as negotiators scramble to avoid new US tariffs (NY Times) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, DIS, KKR, META, UGI, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
18-Aug-2026 12:04	Tuesday midday check-in: Rate reprieve: Big story today seems to be the relative calm in rates amid another flurry of articles highlighting fiscal dynamics (US and global), corporate supply pressures from the AI boom, Fed uncertainty and lingering inflation pressures as the key drivers of the ongoing backup in long-term yields. Fed Chair Warsh's speech on 28-Aug in Jackson Hole next key area of focus for bonds. FT recently reported that Warsh is expected to use the speech to explain the intellectual framework behind his push to reshape the Fed. Noted potential for clarification on areas where his own messaging has missed the mark. Momentum weakness: Nothing specific behind the momentum selloff. Follows Monday's outperformance and a big rally in several pockets of the AI trade (particularly memory, optical) over the last week or so. Rally partly a function of the earnings and frontier lab revenue disclosure support for the AI compute/capex narrative. Nvidia earnings on 26-Aug the next big area of focus for AI. Early preview commentary not surprisingly upbeat, with focus on tight GPU supply/demand dynamics. Also expectations for more color around off-balance-sheet commitments. Rotation over risk off: AI trade weakness not driving a broad risk off move with several bright spots today. Consumer staples a standout on fairly broad-based strength after falling nearly 1.5% on Monday. Retail another bright spot as Home Depot and Amer Sports kicked off earnings season for the group on an upbeat note. While oil not doing much, energy a big gainer with integrateds the standouts. Big pharma, hospitals and managed care helping to drive the rally in healthcare. Media/streaming, A&D, and insurance some of the other outperformers. Trump says no talks between US and Iran: President Trump said on Tuesday no talks currently taking place between US and Iran and nothing scheduled. Added blockade remains in full effect and SoH is open and operating. Also noted all water mines have been removed or detonated. Trump administration has put a more positive spin on SoH transit than market trackers, with Energy Secretary Wright recently asserting that ~9M barrels of oil are moving through each day. Market trackers have said the figure is likely closer to 5M barrels (Politico). Home Depot, Amer Sports kick off retail earnings season on positive note: Home Depot Q2 results beat with takeaways positive on the +1.7% comp growth, which was the best since 3Q22. Some preview commentary had flagged expectations for a comp miss. Company also noted category strength broadened, with 13 of 16 categories posting positive comps. However, large discretionary projects still pressured by housing affordability and tariff refunds needed to offset higher costs/maintain FY guide. Amer Sports beat with upside in all segments, noted momentum carried into Q3 and raised FY guidance. Data on the backburner: Economic calendar largely a nonfactor. Housing starts remained soft, falling a larger-than-expected 12.4% m/m in July. Single-family starts fell nearly 10% to lowest level since November 2022. Building permits increased a greater-than-expected 5.0%. Manufacturing production increased 0.3% m/m in July, in line with expectations. High-tech and capex-related metrics remained strong. Import prices unexpectedly declined 0.4% m/m in July, though core import prices (and computer peripherals) were firmer. ADP private payrolls increased by an average of 9,500 per week over four weeks through 1-Aug, snapping seven straight weeks of slowing growth. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Aug-2026 08:50	July housing starts fall sharply while permits rise; import prices decline: Housing starts fell 12.4% m/m in July to 1.239M vs consensus 1.350M and June's revised 1.415M (was 1,427M); single-family housing starts fell 9.9% m/m in to 808K from 897K; Building permits increased 5.0% to 1.443M vs consensus 1.370M and June's revised 1.374M (was 1.367M). July pending homes sales down 2.3% m/m vs consensus for 0.2% gain and June's revised 4.8% decline (was -5.4%); all four US regions saw m/m declines. Comes after yesterday's August NAHB builder confidence edged up from July, with strength in the Midwest, though higher construction costs and broader economic uncertainty remained headwinds. Meanwhile, July Import Price Index fell 0.4% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% gain and June's 0.3% decline; marks largest monthly decline since May-25; fuel prices drove the decline, falling 7.2% m/m; July Export Price Index down 1.3% m/m vs consensus for a 0.05% gain and June's 0.7% decline; July's decline was largest monthly drop since May-23. Elsewhere, ADP said US private employers added an average 9,500 jobs per week over four weeks through 1-Aug; comes after seven straight weeks of slowing growth though pace still well off YTD highs. Finally, July US industrial production increased 0.2% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% increase and July's revised 0.3% gain (was +0.1%); July capacity utilization of 76.3% vs consensus 76.3% and June's revised 76.2% (was 76.1%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Aug-2026 06:58	Tuesday morning check-in: Global bond yield backup: Biggest story right now seems to revolve around global backup in long-term rates. Press reports (Bloomberg, FT , CNBC , link) have continued to flag the usual suspects, particularly fiscal dynamics and crowding out from corporate bond supply related to AI capex boom. Fed uncertainty/credibility and higher oil remain in the mix as well. When it comes to fiscal, ytd budget deficit up 15% y/y to $1.17T, while national debt expected to top $40T by end of August. On the corporate supply front, BofA has estimated that surge in corporate debt sales, along with rise in MBS issuance, has pushed up 10-year rates by ~0.3pp this year. Momentum weakness: Momentum factor a notable laggard this morning after outperforming on Monday. Monday's move chalked up to several factors, particularly the boost for the picks & shovels theme from latest revenue updates surrounding Anthropic (and another one dropped late in the session with Bloomberg highlighting a $65B+ run rate at end of July, up from $47B in May). Also some talk of memory strength related to Lutnick's pushback against Apple's interest in accessing memory chips from China. Short leg of momentum also worked with software under pressure. Workday caught two downgrades and no privatization update. Home Depot comps beat: Home Depot comps +1.7% in Q2 vs consensus +0.9%, with US comps +1.3% vs +0.8% consensus. Ticket the key driver. EPS beat by 4% with GMs 60 bp ahead and operating margin 40 bp better. Noted "broad based demand across the business as customers continued to engage in smaller projects". Reiterated FY comp, revenue growth and EPS guidance, which it said includes IEEPA tariff refunds that are expected to partially offset unplanned fuel, energy and other product costs. Previews had flagged some potential comp headwinds from larger remodel activity and unfavorable weather, while tariff refund tailwind was expected. US-Iran conflict drags on: Biggest theme when it comes to US-Iran conflict lately seems to revolve around skepticism about any credible near-term diplomatic off-ramps. While US has increasingly emphasized patience as it inflicts economic pain, that dynamic is not new to Iran, which continues to prioritize its leverage over SoH transit. Oil market still seems partly cushioned by global inventory drawdowns, Chinese demand dynamics, reports of covert/shuttle flows and pipeline go-arounds, though elevated product prices continue to get a lot of scrutiny (Reuters). Also some focus today on latest Houthi threats in the Red Sea (link). Bullish sentiment elevated: BofA said its August Global Fund Manager Survey third most bullish survey of investor sentiment since 2022. Noted cash level ticked down another 0.1pp to 3.5% and global equity allocation surged to highest level since late 2021 with a net 56% OW. Highlighted upbeat growth expectations with 56% predicting "no landing" for macro and highest percentage of investors looking for a "boom" since February 2022 and double-digit EPS growth since August 2021. Long global semis still most crowded trade, but down nearly 30pp to 52%. AI bubble flagged as biggest tail risk. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Aug-2026 06:33	BofA's latest FMS shows investors increasingly bullish just as markets set fresh records: BofA's August Global Fund Manager Survey showed third-most bullish sentiment in past four years, noting FMS cash level down 0.1 pp to 3.5% (sixth-lowest in series history), global equity allocation highest since Nov-21, US equity allocation highest since Dec-24, a record 56% expecting "no landing" to global economy, and net 37% expecting double-digit earnings growth in next 12 months, most in five years. Views on AI trade mixed. Long semiconductors again most crowded trade (though down 29 pp m/m to 53%), while AI bubble biggest tail risk (down 13 pp m/m to 32%). AI hyperscaler capex again seen as most likely source of credit event. However, 71% don't see AI capex cut this year, up 10 pp m/m, though 19% say corporate balance sheets overleveraged (up 12 pp m/m, highest since Mar-23). Investors also somewhat neutral on Fed outlook, with 72% expecting no cut before November midterms, while 53% expect Warsh to lean neutral at Jackson Hole (though 31% see more hawkish tone). Survey's bullish takeaways follow S&P 500, small cap R2K hitting fresh record highs last week, while some Street trading desks recently reaffirmed bullish pieces of the narrative, including cleaning positioning, more reasonable valuations, low volatility, improving breadth, though elevated rates, AI capex/ROI/circular financing, geopolitical uncertainty remain key overhangs. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Aug-2026 15:06	Afternoon headlines: AI: Nvidia guaranteeing up to $105B to help OpenAI lease a large Ohio datacenter owned by SoftBank's SB Energy (Reuters) Microsoft-linked data center bond sale may be increased by $1B to $3.9B after strong demand (Bloomberg) Corporate: L3 Harris Chairman/CEO Kubasik stepping down effective immediately following conduct investigation (Bloomberg) Raytheon receives a $23B DoW contract to rapidly scale up Tomahawk missile output (Reuters) Barclays reshuffles IB leadership less than three years after last shakeup, to focus on fee-based advisory, equities (FT) California trial could determine future of Meta as states push social media platforms to address safety concern (CNBC) Serve Robotics pivots to new partnerships, health care after ending Uber Eats partnership (Axios) Shein targets ~$27B valuation for upcoming Hong Kong IPO after pushback over $30B target (Bloomberg) Iran war: Iran rejects talks to extend MOU with the US, which expired Monday (CNBC) Iran has reportedly decided to shift its policy from defensive to "fully offensive" with Hormuz talks fail (Reuters) Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of Iran talks (BBC) Energy: UAE oil tanker detained near Iran while crossing Strait of Hormuz (Anadolu Ajansi) US Energy Secretary Wright says he will talk to refiners about ways to further ramp their throughput (Reuters) Central banks: Survey of economists sees Fed holding rates steady through year-end (Reuters) Markets: Citadel warns Fed's hesitancy to tighten driving long-term bond yields to multiyear highs (Bloomberg) US 30Y Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 amid concerns over national debt, inflation (Bloomberg) Economy: ECB economists warn US tech stock correction could threaten Eurozone financial stability (FT) US homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly rises in August with strength in Midwest (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: LHX, MSFT, NVDA, RTX, UBER, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
17-Aug-2026 11:48	Monday midday check-in: Several key pockets of AI trade outperform: Memory/semis/optical the big gainers in the AI trade today. Power names have also fared well. Nothing specific behind today's move though some focus on the latest revenue color from the frontier labs. Anthropic's revenue reportedly surged at least 14-fold to more than $11.5B in Q2, while company projecting $190-200B in revenue in 2028. Sandisk a particular standout after rallying 35%+ last week on the back of the very upbeat takeaways surrounding its investor day. Few bright spots outside of AI: Precious metals, trust banks, IBs, rails, refiners and biotech/pharma the notable non-AI outperformers. Several notable laggards in tech today, including hyperscalers, software and servers. Retail another notable underperformer into a key week of Jul Q earnings reports. Apparel & accessories names also down on the day. Alts under some pressure after a big rally last week. Staples was one of the worst-performing sectors with weakness pretty much across the board. Travel & leisure space another underperformer. Long-term yields higher again: 30-year bond yield bumping up against the 5.30% level. Divergence between long-term yields and near-term Fed tightening expectations has put the focus on a number of the usual suspects, including Fed uncertainty/credibility and fiscal dynamics. However, corporate supply pressure seems to be getting heightened attention, particularly in terms of the AI capex boom. Late last month, Goldman Sachs estimated $489B in AI-related supply thus far this year, already topping the $322B from 2025. Nvidia confirms support for Ohio data center: Nvidia to provide backstop of up to $105B for new OpenAI data center project in Ohio. Downsized backstop (from $250B in initial report) had been reported in the press in recent days. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a blog post that company is helping to provide the infrastructure that will drive "more compute, more intelligence, more product, more users and more revenue". Noted deal could generate $150-200B in revenue for Nvidia and said site can support multiple upgrade cycles over 20 years. Empire manufacturing highest since late 2021, homebuilder sentiment ticks up but still depressed: Empire manufacturing index increased to 20.6 in August from 15.6 in July, ahead of the 10.0 consensus. Marked strongest reading since December 2021. Composition not as strong as headline as new orders, shipments and employment all declined, while prices paid components both ticked higher. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index ticked up to 35 in August from 34 in July, above the 33 consensus. Sentiment below 40 for 16^th straight month and August also marked 16^th straight month in which at least 30% of builders reported cutting prices to support demand. Oil not doing much despite Middle East rhetoric: Oil not a big mover despite continued concerns about a lack of credible near-term diplomatic off-ramps. Trump reiterated patience/economic pain dynamic and that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Also threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way. Separately, Reuters cited a senior Iranian official who said Tehran will escalate tensions in SoH and wider region if diplomacy fails. Oil upside may be somewhat constrained by continued reports of covert/shuttle flows (Bloomberg). Also more discussion about how product markets more reflective of supply issues (Zero Hedge). Workday catches two downgrades following privatization speculation: Workday on the defensive for second session following a nearly 18% rally Thursday on the back of a Reuters report that Silver Lake was exploring a potential privatization. Stock downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank and to neutral from buy at BTIG. Neither downgrade mentioned any explicit skepticism about the potential for a deal. Deutsche Bank described its move as a valuation call. BTIG said it now views risk-reward as balanced. Also said it views consensus cRPO estimates as overly optimistic. Added its checks have shown limited adoption of Flex Credit and Platform Entitlement Policies. No standouts in latest positioning updates: Early August bounce partly chalked up to cleaner positioning following big July momentum unwind/de-leveraging. However, nothing has really stood out in recent positioning updates. JPMorgan noted aggregate positioning remains neutral (40^th percentile, -0.2z). Deutsche Bank said it measure of aggregate equity positioning was largely flat last week and remained modestly overweight (0.25sd, 58^th percentile). Discretionary investor positioning dipped to slightly below neutral (-0.03sd, 44^th percentile) while systematic strategies' positioning pushed up and stayed overweight (0.60sd, 76^th percentile) Buybacks back in force: Lot of focus on flows following big July momentum unwind. Multiple firms have discussed return of retail, albeit with some shift in preference and interest in protection via options market. Passive flow tailwind, which remained in effect in July with a record of approx. $350B of inflows (and about $1.6T ytd) per Citadel Securities. Corporate expected to be the standout for August. Goldman Sachs noted last week's flows finished at 1.5x vs 2025 YTD ADTV and 1.4x vs 2024 YTD ADTV. Added it currently estimates 96% of the S&P 500 are in an open window period. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Aug-2026 08:46	August Empire Manufacturing Index beats, highest since Dec-21: August Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at +20.6 vs consensus +9.0 and July's +15.6; index now highest since Dec-21. New orders and shipments remained solid, though both eased m/m, with new orders index falling to +17.3 from +22.2 and shipments to +11.7 from +24.4; inventories declined to -5.2 from +4.0. Number of employees index declined to +9.3 from +11.4, while average employee workweek rose to +6.9 from +2.8; prices paid rose to +58.6 from +52.3, while prices received fell to +22.7 from +27.6. Index for future business conditions rose to +32.1 from +27.9; new orders and shipments are expected to increase significantly, and employment is expected to pick up strongly over the next six months. Looking ahead, relatively quiet macro calendar this week. Tuesday brings July housing starts and pending home sales, industrial production, and import/export prices. Wednesday's July FOMC minutes are the key event of the week, followed by jobless claims Thursday and flash August S&P PMIs Friday. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Aug-2026 07:17	Monday morning check-in: Anthropic projecting 2028 revenue of ~$190-200B: One of the bigger stories surrounding Anthropic last week was the FT report about the $2T+ valuation expected by some of its leading investors at its upcoming IPO. Valuation based on estimates Anthropic's annualized revenue will hit $100-120B by end of 2026. More recent report from Reuters noted that ahead of its IPO, company is projecting 2028 revenue of ~$190-200B, well ahead of the $47B revenue run rate highlighted in May. Added investors using Cloudflare, Palantir and SpaceX as valuation reference points. More AI financing headlines: Funding continues to ramp as a key piece of the broader AI narrative, with a positive spin surrounding demand visibility and infrastructure capacity and a negative spin surrounding circular financing concerns (and broader crowding out dynamics). Multiple reports noted Nvidia downsizing its backstop for an OpenAI data center in Ohio to $100-120B from an originally planned $250B (The Information, link). Another report discussed how big tech companies disclosed $3T of off-balance-sheet commitments, mostly related to AI, in latest securities filings (link ). Middle East waiting game: Lots of moving pieces when it comes to the Middle East. Diplomatic off-ramp hopes have waned with Iranian hardline position on SoH, though lack of kinetic escalation may be enough to keep geopolitics on the backburner for equities. Much of the recent focus has been on US plan to ramp up economic pressure on Iran (link ). However, also concerns about negative spillover effects for US economy, relations with China (Bloomberg ). While more ships coming under attack in SoH, covert flows reportedly helping to keep oil prices contained (Bloomberg). Retail earnings season kicks off this week: Retail earnings season kicks off this week with Home Depot on Tuesday, Lowe's, TJX and Target on Wednesday and Ross Stores and Walmart on Thursday. Results expected to underpin the broader consumer resilience theme already highlighted by Visa, Mastercard and the big banks, which also pushed back against K-shaped concerns. However, also some more recent concerns about some softening in spending given waning impact from outsized tax refunds. This dynamic was flagged in takeaways surrounding weaker July retail sales data. FOMC minutes out this week: July FOMC minutes out on Wednesday at 14:00. Minutes take on heightened importance with the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's reaction function. However, expected to be less relevant in the wake of the softer batch of July data and dampened Fed tightening odds (and with bigger focus on Warsh's JH speech next week). Probability of a September rate hike now sits at just under 31%, down from just over 50% early last week. Market currently pricing in ~22 bp or rate hikes over the rest of the year, down from ~33 bp just before the July employment report. Elevated rate backdrop: Elevated rate backdrop a big theme last week despite support for the disinflation narrative from the July CPI/PPI data. Lots of headlines about highest borrowing cost on a 30-year Treasury bond since 2001 at last week's auction. Fiscal a key area of scrutiny while there continues to be more and more focus on the deluge of corporate supply, much of which has been related to the AI boom. Bloomberg noted IG companies have sold nearly $1.5T of bonds this year, up 36% y/y. Added that the $200B from big tech is equivalent to ~25% of Treasury's net issuance of notes and bonds, 5x more than last year. Strong Q2 earnings season: More discussion about the strength of Q2 earnings season on the Street and in the financial press. Goldman Sachs pointed out that while AI infrastructure stocks have accounted for roughly half of the 31% S&P 500 EPS growth (excludes "other income" adjustments), growth for rest of market has been strong and accelerating. Noted median S&P 500 company grew EPS by 14%. Bloomberg report highlighted AI boom (and related margin tailwinds), along with US economic resilience. Best growth outside recession recoveries in data going back to 1992. More private credit scrutiny in financial press: Alts among the best performers last week and Q2 conference calls in recent weeks featured a lot of upbeat commentary on private credit from management teams. However, industry continues to attract a lot of scrutiny in the financial press. Latest from the FT noted value of troubled loans held by some of the biggest private credit investors has reached levels last seen in 2017. Added private credit defaults hit a new record in July. Rehashed usual bearish talking points surrounding flurry of deals done when rates were low in 2020-2021 and AI disruption for software. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Aug-2026 06:48	StreetAccount Event Preview: July FOMC meeting minutes Minutes to July FOMC meeting out Wednesday (19-Aug, 14 ET). Recall at that meeting, the Fed held, as expected, but featured three dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) in favor of 25 bp hike. Some have argued the minutes have taken on some increased significance given the light Warsh-era Fed communications strategy. The July meeting again featured a slim policy statement, and Warsh was careful to not offer any hints around forward guidance or reaction function. However, Warsh offered some dovish-leaning statements, including that markets have already done quite a bit of tightening work without the Fed changing its policy stance. Previews looking for any general color on the economic outlook and balance of risks, particularly since Warsh's meeting comments offered little new info. Also looking for how broadly officials are sympathetic to arguments that led to the three dissents (several non-voters have since offered support to more hawkish arguments). However, minutes fairly stale given better inflation data, softer labor market data since the meeting. Also comes ahead of Fed's Jackson Hole symposium (27-29 Aug), Warsh's next opportunity to outline policy and Fed communications stance. Markets currently pricing a 30% chance of September hike, and ~22 bp of hikes through year-end, fewest since mid-June and down ~10 bp from day after July meeting. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Aug-2026 11:15	Bullish talking points for week-ended 14-Aug: Disinflation narrative underpinned by July CPI and PPI data out this week. Core CPI increased 0.2% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing y/y rate down to +2.5%. Citi noted this marked lowest annual core CPI print since 2021 when excluding months impacted by data issues related to government shutdown. Core PPI increased 0.2% m/m, below the +0.3% consensus, while y/y rate decelerated to +4.2% from +4.7% in June. Flurry of support for AI compute/capex demand narrative from this week's earnings, particularly on Wednesday with focus on results CoreWeave, Lumentum, Super Micro Computer and Nebius. Bookings/backlog strength, margin inflection, pricing power, improved capex ROIC dynamics among the high-level takeaways. While Cisco, Coherent and Cebreas underperformed on Thursday, as did Applied Materials on Friday, the AI takeaways were still upbeat. Positive AI spin not limited to earnings. Despite some circular financing scrutiny, Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure funding partnership was still seen as a positive from a demand visibility and infrastructure capacity standpoint. FT reported that Anthropic investors expect company to IPO at a valuation of $2T or more in October, based on estimates annualized revenue will hit $100-120B by end of 2026 (up over 10x). Sandisk was big gainer with upbeat sentiment surrounding its investor day. Disinflation traction helped drive some rate stabilization and weighed on near-term Fed tightening expectations. Probability of a 25 bp rate hike in September fell to ~31% in Friday morning trading from ~50% earlier in the week. Market on Friday morning was pricing in ~21 bp of Fed tightening through the end of 2026 (following softer July retail sales), down from ~33 bp just before last Friday's softer-than-expected July employment report. Workday privatization report triggered talk of valuation floor for SaaS/software complex. Workday rallied nearly 18% on Thursday following Reuters report Silver Lake exploring a potential privatization. Takeaways suggested deal possible, highlighting combination of Workday's entrenched positioning and depressed valuation from AI-loser sentiment. Also discussion about how report of PE interest fits with thoughts the SaaS/software complex de-rating has gone too far. Retail back in the mix. Return of retail a theme in early August trading/bounce given cohort's ramp in importance as a source structural source of demand. JPMorgan noted on Thursday that retail flows rebounded to the 64^th percentile from the 4^th percentile last week. Earlier in the week, Citadel discussed how retail returned as a net buyer last week, reversing the selling at the end of June. Report also highlighted the continued tailwind from passive flows. US-Iran diplomacy still consensus despite myriad complications and still-elevated rhetoric. Multiple headlines attributed to Pakistan suggested the two sides may be near some kind of "arrangement". Lack of kinetic escalation also spun as good enough from a market perspective in terms of keeping geopolitics largely on the backburner. While a reflection of structural realities, there were more headlines this week about Gulf producers ramping up investments to dampen long-term reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Aug-2026 11:14	Bearish talking points for week-ended 14-Aug: Elevated (real) rate backdrop received more scrutiny this week, even amid support for disinflation narrative from the July CPI/PPI prints. Financial press flagged highest borrowing cost on a 30-year Treasury bond since 2001 at this week's auction. Real rates at decade-plus highs a particular area of focus given fiscal realities (Treasury said this week ytd deficit was $1.8T through July) and AI-related corporate supply (late last month, Goldman Sachs estimated $489B in AI-related supply thus far this year, already topping the $322B from 2025). US-Iran stalemate dragged on with some of this week's focus on Tehran's continued ratcheting up of demands just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Strait of Hormuz traffic remained pressured and vessels continued to come under attack from Iran. More discussion about bigger spillover effects in the product vs crude market, particularly diesel. Average US price per gallon up nearly 45% y/y. IEA noted exports from Russia, Middle East and Asia were 1.3 mbd lower y/y in July, equivalent to ~20% of global seaborne trade. AI circular financing concerns back in play with Nvidia's announcement of a $500B AI infrastructure funding partnership with six major US investment firms. Nvidia CEO confirmed company retains option to backstop up to $125B, or 25% of potential deals. Compute-as-collateral attracted some scrutiny given technological and demand disruption (and broader duration uncertainty) dynamics. AI-related equity supply also in the headlines with Intel's upsized $20B capital raise. July retail sales came in softer than expected following the disappointing NFP print last week. Headline retail sales fell 0.6% m/m in July (motor vehicle sales fell 1.8%), worse than consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase. Core retail sales fell 0.4% vs consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. While Prime Day shift was a big headwind (2.2% decline in nonstore retailer category), also some discussion about waning tailwind from outsized tax refunds and headwinds from still elevated energy prices. July inflation data not enough for some Fed hawks. Fed's Hammack on Thursday expressed skepticism that recent cooling in inflation will persist long enough to reach the Fed's 2% target, reiterating previous call that the central bank needs to act now. Earlier in the week, she argued a single 25 bp rate hike is insufficient to address current inflation levels and will likely require some number of tightening moves. Also some focus on inability of Treasuries to rally this week despite data/positioning. High earnings bar dynamic blamed (or partly blamed) for lackluster performance from several notable reporters this week, including Applied Materials, Cisco, Coherent, Cerebras, Tapestry and YETI. Elevated expectations continued to receive some attention in strategists' Q2 earnings commentary. BofA noted that stocks that beat both EPS and sales expectations outperformed by 0.8ppt the next day, just over half of the historical average. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Aug-2026 10:14	Preliminary August consumer sentiment below consensus; near-term inflation expectations tick higher: Preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 51.0 vs consensus 54.5; July's preliminary reading was 54.4 and final was 55.2; sentiment now hovering just above midpoint of this year's 56.6-44.8 range. Current Economic Conditions Index of 51.8 vs July final 54.8; Index of Consumer Expectations of 50.6 vs July final 55.4. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3% from 4.2% in July, still well above 3.4% pre-Iran conflict in February; Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month. Sentiment weakened broadly, driven by 11%/17% declines in short-/long-term business expectations; notably large reductions in sentiment were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without college degree with just 8% expecting income growth to outpace inflation in the year ahead, down from 18% in Dec-24. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Aug-2026 08:52	July retail sales unexpectedly decline, miss consensus: Headline July retail sales declined 0.6% m/m vs consensus for 0.1% increase and June's unrevised 0.2% rise; July's headline is softest since May-25; July retail sales ex-autos down 0.3% m/m vs consensus for 0.2% gain and June's unrevised 0.2% decline; second straight monthly decline and softest ex-auto reading since Jan-25. Control group sales (which feed into GDP) down 0.4% m/m vs consensus for 0.4% gain and June's 0.4% rise. Sales declined at online stores (-2.2%), car parts/dealers (-1.8%), gas stations (-0.9%), and electronic/appliance stores (-0.5%); gains were seen in clothing/accessories stores (+1.9%), health/personal care stores (+0.7%), bars/restaurants (+0.5%), miscellaneous stores (+0.5%), furniture/home stores (+0.3%), and building materials/garden supply stores (+0.3%); sales were flat for food/beverage stores and sporting goods/hobby stores. Unexpected decline not a major surprise, with previews flagging downside risks from lower oil prices, weaker card data, Prime Day payback, and seasonality; BofA preview noted any weakness likely a one-off, with resilient consumer and low unemployment supporting spending ahead. Market attention now shifts to next week's start of retail earnings season, with HD, LOW, TJX, TGT, ROST and WMT all set to report. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: HD, LOW, ROST, TGT, TJX, WMT...(more)	show story hide story
14-Aug-2026 07:16	Friday morning check-in: Retail sales out this morning: July retail sales out at 08:30. Headline retail sales expected to increase 0.1% m/m following a 0.2% increase in June. Core retail sales expected to increase 0.3% following June's 0.5% gain. Previews flagged some downside risk, citing softer spending data read-throughs. They also discussed payback from pull forward of Prime Day to June, along with some potential drag from seasonal factors. However, no shift in healthy/resilient consumer narrative, which was underpinned by Visa/Mastercard comments on July trends. Applied Materials takeaways positive but bar high: Applied Materials a post-earnings laggard despite its beat and better guidance. Takeaways widely flagged very elevated expectations into the print. Also some near-term GM scrutiny. However, Street still very upbeat with CY26 Semi Systems growth now expected to exceed prior 30%+ outlook, driven by key leading-edge Foundry/Logic, DRAM, and Advanced Packaging segments (which now make up ~80% of WFE growth). Also talked up exposure to deposition/etch, visibility/confidence in extended WFE upcycle and ICAPS inflection. OpenAI annual revenue rate doubles, frontier lab price war: Frontier lab revenue details continue to hit the press. Bloomberg reported OpenAI on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40B, roughly double the end-2025 run rate. Highlighted tailwind from pickup in demand for its AI agents. FT said earlier this week Anthropic's annualized revenue will hit $100-120B by end of 2026. Another FT report highlighted the price war among OpenAI and Anthropic amid competition from open-weight/source models from China. Elevated (real) rates: Despite disinflation narrative support from this week's July CPI/PPI data, financial press remains focused on elevated rate backdrop. US government on Thursday paid highest borrowing cost on a 30-year bond since 2001, at 5.22% (FT). Upward pressure expected to continue given heightened role of price-sensitive buyers, even with Treasury potentially ramping up maturity-shortening strategy (Bloomberg). Fiscal and AI supply the key areas of scrutiny, pushing real yields to decade-plus highs and raising risks for stock markets and global economy (Reuters). Workday privatization report triggers talk of valuation floor for SaaS/software complex: Workday rallied nearly 18% on Thursday following Reuters report Silver Lake exploring a potential privatization. Early sell-side takeaways suggested deal possible, highlighting combination of Workday's entrenched positioning and depressed valuation from AI-loser sentiment. Also a lot of discussion about how report could put a near-term valuation floor under the SaaS/software complex as PE interest fits with thoughts the de-rating has gone too far. However, not perceived as an all-clear signal given AI disruption narrative not going away. US ramping up economic pressure on Iran: More signs of US shift to patience dynamic surrounding conflict with Iran recently highlighted by President Trump. Treasury Secretary Bessent said US will apply economic pressure on Iran "like the world has never seen," with further announcements expected next week. Positive spin from a risk sentiment standpoint is that its fits with aversion to renewed kinetic activity. Negative spin is that it fits with diplomatic skepticism and keeps supply shock dynamics in play. Retail earnings season kicks off next week: Retail earnings season kicks off next week with Home Depot on Tuesday, Lowes, TJX and Target on Wednesday and Ross Stores and Walmart on Thursday. As usual, Walmart likely to get outsized attention. Previews flagged expected comp deceleration from widely understood headwinds (pharmacy pricing, gas prices, low-income headwinds) but also talked up continued share gains/trade-down, tariff refunds and ad/marketplace/membership streams. Stock down ~15% since last Q. BoJ tightening expectations pulled forward: BoJ tightening expectations continue to get pulled forward with market now pricing in a nearly 80% probability of a September tightening. Reuters latest to indicate BoJ may hike as soon as next month, adding MPC considering hiking more aggressively from the current semi-annual pace. Followed Bloomberg report that said Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's government supportive of a near-term BoJ rate hike. Pickup in near-term tightening expectations have not done much for yen, fitting with concerns BoJ will remain behind the curve. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Aug-2026 15:04	Afternoon headlines: Middle East: US planning to send another aircraft carrier to Middle East to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln (Anadolu Ajansi) US military has lost ~25% of its Reaper drones during Iran war as Pentagon warns of broader munitions depletion (Washington Post) Saudi Arabia considers backing Yemeni ground offensive to retake Red Sea coast from Houthis (Jerusalem Post) Corporate: Sandisk sees flash memory market surging to ~$500B by 2027; forecasts revenue growth of mid-to-high teens from FY28-30 (link) Microsoft scaling back China operations though AI, cloud demand keeping market strategically relevant (Reuters) AMD planning $5B investment-grade bond sale (Bloomberg) AI: Anthropic begins high-level investor meetings ahead of potential IPO, though no valuation discussed (CNBC) OpenAI chief revenue officer Denise Dresser to depart after less than one year (CNBC) Google launches Gemini 3.7 Flash, though no timing on release for flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro (Reuters) DeepSeek is sharply raising prices for its flagship V4 models ahead of a potential IPO (Bloomberg) AMD plans to raise $5B in its largest investment-grade bond sale to fuel AI growth (Bloomberg) Databricks secures $5B in funding at$190B valuation, CEO downplays IPO timing (CNBC) Central banks: Fed's Hammack calls on Fed to raise rates to temper growth and inflation (Reuters) Fed's Barkin says it is still an open question whether the Fed will need to hike rates (Reuters) Falling oil prices now stopping bond traders from fully pricing in a Fed rate cut this year (Bloomberg) Energy: Yemen's Houthi says they targeted Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia's Jizan with two drones (Times of Israel) Ukraine carries out strike on Gazprom's 200K bpd Salavat refinery in Russia (Oilprice.com) Trade/tariffs: Detroit automakers warn new trade proposals could add $2B in annual costs, hurt competitiveness (Reuters) White House accuses over 40 nations, including Canada, Japan, EU, of helping China evade US tariffs through transshipment (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMD, GOOGL, MSFT, SNDK, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
13-Aug-2026 14:00	Fed's Hammack, Barkin continue to warn of upside inflation risks: Speaking in Dayton, Cleveland Fed President Hammack (voter) expressed skepticism that the recent cooling in inflation will persist long enough to reach the Fed's 2% target, reiterating previous call that the Fed needs to act now (Reuters). Hammack's comments come after she told Yahoo Finance earlier this week that a single 25 bp rate hike is insufficient to address current inflation levels, and will likely require some number of movements. Also said she doesn't want to prejudge, but doesn't know exactly where the Fed will end. Speaking in Greenville, SC, Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) said that it remains unclear if the Fed must raise rates to reach its 2% inflation goal (Reuters). Barkin suggested that current inflationary pressures stem from supply shocks, oil prices, and the AI buildout, which may all naturally ease over time. While Barkin did not say whether he thinks a hike may be necessary, he warned above-target inflation is more embedded, flagged risks of an upward shift in price expectations for firms and consumers. Despite the hawkish-leaning commentary, markets have moved in a more dovish direction after this week's inflation data. The odds of a September hike of 34%, down from 55% a week ago, while markets are pricing 23.7 bp of hikes through year-end, down ~7 bp w/w. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Aug-2026 13:42	StreetAccount Event Preview: July retail sales July retail sales report out Friday (14-Aug, 8:30 ET). Headline retail sales consensus of 0.1% down from June 0.2% growth. Retail sales ex-autos expected to rebound to 0.2% growth in July, up from June's -0.2% contraction. Retail sales ex-autos and fuel consensus of 0.3% a bit below prior 0.4% print. Control group sales (which feed into GDP) consensus of 0.4% down from June's 0.54% print, would mark slowest pace YTD. Previews said headline likely dragged down by softer gasoline prices, though ex-autos and gas expected to hold up better. However, Goldman Sachs noted potential payback from early Amazon Prime Day, estimating 0.2 pp drag to control group sales (to below-consensus +0.2% m/m forecast). Citi expects below-consensus 0.1% growth in control group sales, noting some moderation from strong June print. Also said they see risks to spending ahead as slower real income growth, low savings rate pressures consumers. BofA also cautious, flagging ex-auto spending down 0.9% m/m. Said drags likely stem from hot weather, World Cup hangover. However, argued impact likely one-off, noting resilient consumer, low unemployment rate should help sustain spend ahead. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Aug-2026 12:09	Thursday midday check-in: PPI underpins disinflation narrative: Headline PPI flat m/m in July, just below +0.1% consensus, bringing y/y rate down to +4.7% from +5.5% in June (and below +4.9% consensus). Core PPI up 0.2% m/m, just below +0.3% consensus, while y/y rate decelerated to +4.2% from +4.7% in June. Takeaways focused on upside core services driven by +6.5% m/m spike in portfolio management fees, highlighting one-off dynamic. Core goods softness another area of focus, while AI capex-related categories firmed. Rate rally: Big rate rally today with yields down 4-6 bp (though were down 6-8 bp earlier). Mixed July PPI enough to further push down September tightening odds. Market now pricing in a ~32% probability of a 25 bp rate hike in September, down from ~50% earlier in the week. Market currently pricing in ~24 bp of tightening through the end of the year, down from ~33 bp just before last Friday's softer-than-expected July employment report. Momentum outperforms again: Momentum factor a standout again today with memory, HDDs, semis and servers rallying. Despite the negative price action in the likes of Cisco, Coherent and Cerebras, the AI takeaways were largely upbeat. Tencent bucked the trend as the stock rallied 20%+ overnight. New technical bull market in South Korea another positive for risk sentiment. SanDisk up double-digit % on positive analyst day takeaways. Mixed takeaways from consumer earnings: Tapestry takeaways highlighted healthy fundamentals but only a slight beat (and largely in-line guidance) in the face of elevated expectations with stock up ~20% ytd. YETI a laggard with EPS beat (and better guidance) helped by tariff refunds/buybacks, revenue only in line (and guide reaffirmed), tougher comps ahead and elevated expectations. Birkenstock a standout following beat, raise and DTC reacceleration. Wolverine World Wide beat and raised guide by even more with takeaways positive on broad-based momentum. Grocery Outlet beat and raised. Retail sales on Friday: July retail sales out on Friday at 08:30. Headline retail sales expected to increase 0.1% m/m following a 0.2% increase in June. Core retail sales expected to increase 0.3% following June's 0.5% gain. Previews flagged some downside risk, citing softer spending data read-throughs. They also discussed payback from pull forward of Prime Day to June, along with some potential drag from seasonal factors. However, no shift in healthy/resilient consumer narrative, which was underpinned by Visa/Mastercard comments on July trends. Retail back, but focus shifts: Return of retail a theme in early August trading/bounce given that cohort's ramp as a structural source of demand. Citadel recently discussed how retail returned as a net buyer last week, though also pointed out it is paying for protection in options. JPMorgan noted retail flows rebounded to 64^th percentile from 4^th percentile last week. However, pointed out that unlike prior months, focus shifted from Tech ex-Mag 7/Memory to macro (highlighted precious metals ETF inflows). Anthropic investors eyeing $2T valuation: Anthropic investors reportedly expect the AU frontier lab to IPO at a valuation of $2T or more in October (FT). Valuation based on estimates Anthropic's annualized revenue will hit $100-120B by end of 2026, representing a more than ten-fold increase over the course of the year. While company lacks a US peer that would provide a valuation benchmark, AI beneficiaries have traded at ~55x revenue this year. Article rehashed a number of widely discussed headwinds facing Anthropic. Much of the recent scrutiny has been on competition from open-weight models. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Aug-2026 08:51	July PPI a bit cooler than expected; jobless claims steady: July core PPI increased 0.2% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% rise and June's revised 0.4% increase (was +0.2%); annualized core up 4.2% vs consensus 4.2% and June's 4.7%. Headline PPI was unchanged vs consensus for 0.1% rise and June's revised 0.1% decline (was -0.3%); annualized headline up 4.7% vs consensus 4.9% and June's 5.5%. Final demand services rose 0.2%, driven by a 0.6% increase in services ex-trade/transportation, including a 6.5% jump in portfolio management; Final demand goods fell 0.7%, driven by energy (-3.1%) and food (-0.9%), with gasoline down 5.7%. Regarding items that flow into PCE, portfolio management up 6.5% (vs June's +0.6%); airline passenger services down 3.4% (vs June's -0.3%); hospital outpatient care up 0.9% (vs June's -0.1%); physician care down 0.1% (vs June's +0.1%). Elsewhere, initial jobless claims came in at 209K vs consensus 202K and prior week's upwardly revised 200K (was 199K); 4-week moving average was 199K, unchanged from the previous week's; continuing claims came in at 1777K vs consensus 1800K and previous week's downwardly revised 1799K (was 1801K). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Aug-2026 07:23	Thursday morning check-in: Anthropic investors eyeing $2T valuation: Anthropic investors reportedly expect the AU frontier lab to IPO at a valuation of $2T or more in October (FT). Valuation based on estimates Anthropic's annualized revenue will hit $100-120B by end of 2026, representing a more than ten-fold increase over the course of the year. While company lacks a US peer that would provide a valuation benchmark, AI beneficiaries have traded at ~55x revenue this year. Article rehashed a number of widely discussed headwinds facing Anthropic. Much of the recent scrutiny has been on competition from open-weight models. AI takeaways from earnings upbeat, price action not: Cisco beat and raised with orders up 35% for a second straight Q and takeaways positive on broad-based/accelerating underlying demand, though some scrutiny surrounding implied growth deceleration and margin step-down. Coherent also beat and raised with takeaways positive on demand/backlog strength and $3B+ quarterly revenue target by end of FY27, stock pressured by GM guide (mix drag). Cerebras stock hit as revenue guidance underwhelmed against a high bar (lock-up expiration also flagged). Lenovo bucked the trend and rallied 20%+. South Korea back in bull market: South Korea's Kospi Index up ~22% from recent low on 30-Jul. Index lost 22% in July and while down ~25% from June peak, still up 60%+ this year (Bloomberg). South Korea has been ground zero for the market structure scrutiny (particularly in terms of leveraged ETFs) surrounding the momentum trade. Extent of the July de-leveraging a widely discussed bounce driver (along with continued favorable memory fundamentals). Leveraged ETF AUM had fallen to $26B in late July from a peak of $53B (The Market Ear). Not much new in Middle East: Nothing particularly incremental when it comes to US-Iran conflict. Iran on Wednesday pushed back against a report it had agreed with the US on an MoU extension, while Trump insisted US has total control of SoH. More discussion in the press about US shift in focus back to a patience dynamic focused on inflicting economic pain (Bloomberg). Also more discussion about how SoH disruption increasingly viewed as a permanent structural realignment, rather than a temporary shock (NY Times , CNBC ) Tariff refund earnings tailwind: AI not surprisingly the dominant theme once again during Q2 season. Tariff refunds have also received some attention as an earnings tailwind (link). Thus far, over 40 S&P 500 companies have reported ~$9.6B in tariff refunds. Tech an outsized beneficiary with ~$2.5B across half a dozen companies, the bulk of which accrued to Apple. Some companies have specifically flagged tariff refunds as a cushion against broader input cost pressures. For many companies however, tariff refunds overshadowed by cost of tariffs still in effect. Japanese government ok with near-term BoJ rate hike: Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's government reportedly supportive of a near-term BoJ rate hike, with next move likely in either September or October (Bloomberg). Little market reaction to the report despite the continued scrutiny surrounding the BoJ's widely perceived behind-the-curve positioning, which was flagged as a key reason why recent coordinated intervention to support the yen failed to generate any meaningful traction. However, tightening expectations have already been pulled forward and pace of policy normalization seemingly bigger issue. AAII bull-bear spread stays negative: AAII bull-bear spread fell to -3.2% in week-ended 12-Aug from -1.0% in prior week. Marked fourth straight week in negative territory. Investors Intelligence bull-bear spread widened to +42.6% from +38.9% in week-ended 11-Aug. Widest level since early February. On the positioning front, Deutsche Bank noted its measure of aggregate equity positioning rose last week from slightly below neutral to modestly overweight (0.22sd, 55th percentile), taking it to highest level in two months. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Aug-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: Senior Iranian source says there are no discussions over extending ceasefire between Iran and US (Reuters) Trump reaffirms US has total control over Strait of Hormuz (ABC) Corporate: Nelson Peltz prepares a potential take-private bid for US burger chain Wendy's (FT) Home Depot CEO taking temporary medical leave that is expected to last multiple months (CNBC) New York City Council investigating prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, over alleged predatory marketing tactics (Washington Post) Media groups sue to block Trump Media plan for selling faster access to Truth Social posts (Bloomberg) Ancora is pushing to acquire H.B. Fuller's building adhesives unit for as much as $1.2B (Bloomberg) AI: Google co-founder Brin urging staff to refocus efforts on restoring Gemini model to forefront of AI (Reuters) OpenAI-backed Thrive Holdings raises $2B at $12B valuation to bring AI to enterprises (TechCrunch) Markets: Investors worry record-breaking earnings growth may signal a weaker phase for stock market (Bloomberg) Fed: In-line CPI gives Fed more room to hold in September, though no real clarity beyond that (link) Energy/Commodities: US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rise, driven by 1.1M bpd jump in imports (link) IEA, OPEC diverge sharply on 2026 oil demand outlook amid Hormuz disruption (euronews) Russia's oil output lagged behind its OPEC+ quota by almost 1M bpd in July (Bloomberg) Black Sea oil tanker rates surge to highest on record amid ramp in drone attacks (Bloomberg) Russia and Ukraine step up Black Sea attacks, exacerbating commodities market angst (link) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: DJT, FUL, GOOGL, HD, WEN, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
12-Aug-2026 12:03	Wednesday midday check-in: CPI in line: Headline and core CPI for July in line with expectations. Core increased 0.2% m/m, bringing y/y rate down to 2.5%. Citi noted lowest annual core CPI print since 2021 when excluding months impacted by data issues related to government shutdown. Takeaways noted some upward pressure from rebound in shelter/OER, medical services and jump in computer/tech related to memory-driven price hikes. Some downward pressure from hotel/lodging and motor vehicle/auto insurance. BofA noted core-services ex-shelter now up 2.5% on a six-month annualized basis. AI rally: AI plays the standouts today. Rally largely chalked up to favorable compute/capex demand takeaways from earnings out of CoreWeave, Lumentum, Super Micro Computer and Nebius. Bookings/backlog strength, margin inflection, pricing power, improved capex ROIC dynamics among the high-level takeaways. Pockets of the AI trade also supported on Tuesday on some of the positive sentiment surrounding the $500B AI infrastructure funding partnership between Nvidia and six major US investment firms. Broadening out trade lags: Some key pockets of the broadening out trade have lagged today, including homebuilders and retail. Airlines also weaker despite oil not doing much. Chemicals underperforming as well. Despite upside leadership from tech, software another notable laggard and Mag 7 mostly lower. Precious metals, QSRs and casual diners, trucking, hotels, real estate, managed care and biotech outperforming. September rate hike odds slip: In-line July CPI print helped push yields a bit lower (Treasuries were already firmer into the release), while September rate hike odds slipped ~12pp to 38%. Market pricing in ~26 bp of rate hikes this year, down from ~30 bp earlier. Sell-side takeaways and financial press headlines discussed dampened pressure on Fed to ease over the near term. However, inflation and Fed not the only dynamics in play when it comes to elevated rate environment. Fiscal a key area of focus (and renewed fiscal dominance theme chatter), along with AI-related supply. US-Iran talks not making progress: Status quo when it comes to the Middle East. Diplomacy remains consensus given energy, economic and military dynamics. Deal skepticism also elevated given Iran's outsized focus on maintaining SoH leverage. Reuters reported no progress between US and Iran in push to revive MoU agreed in June. Followed earlier report that said the two sides had agreed to extend the 60-day ceasefire. That report was attributed to Pakistan, which has been the source of the more optimistic headlines in recent days. Investors Intelligence bull-bear spread highest since early February: Investors Intelligence bull-bear spread widened to +42.6% from +38.9% in week-ended 11-Aug. Noted widest since early February and further in the danger zone above 30 (nine consecutive readings in danger zone). More closely followed AAII bull-bear spread currently at -0.9%, just above its -1.7% ytd average. BofA Bull-Bear spread rose to 9.7 in week-ended 5-Aug, highest since 2021. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Aug-2026 11:21	StreetAccount Event Recap: July CPI July CPI was in line with expectations across core and headline; core rose 0.2% m/m vs 0.0% prior, with annualized core easing to 2.5% from 2.6%; headline rose 0.1% vs -0.4% prior, with annualized headline easing to 3.4% from 3.5%. Roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline rise linked to 0.1% increase in shelter, partially offset by a 1.5% decline in energy (following June's 5.7% drop). Core services takeaways were generally seen as benign despite some firmness in shelter and medical services. Rent and OER firmer, both +0.3% m/m, though some economists see softer market rents/home prices driving further moderation. Airfares were also a pocket of strength, though Citi expects moderation later this year, potentially as soon as August; BofA highlighted subdued ex-housing supercore reading. Core goods rose 0.2% m/m, but analysts generally viewed increase as contained rather than evidence of broader reacceleration. Citi saw little evidence of energy pass-through, while Jefferies highlighted surprising goods stability despite tariffs and energy shock. BofA flagged IT equipment (+1.4%) as a pocket of strength amid AI-related component demand. Fed read-through was generally dovish, with main debate focused on whether July CPI simply supports a September hold or alters the broader policy outlook narrative. CME FedWatch now showing ~40% probability of a hike vs ~46% pre-release. Citi sees little justification for further hikes and expects more slowing in August data, while Jefferies thinks data should keep Waller and other Fed officials more comfortable holding. BofA reaffirmed its base case of 75bp of hikes this year, starting in September though acknowledged greater chance that hikes are delayed or don't materialize. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Aug-2026 08:54	July core and headline CPI both in line with consensus: July core CPI increased 0.2% m/m (vs consensus +0.2%, prior +0.0%); annualized core up 2.5% (vs consensus +2.5%, prior +2.6%). Headline CPI increased 0.1% m/m (vs consensus +0.1%, prior -0.4%); annualized headline up 3.4% (vs consensus +3.4%, prior +3.5%); roughly two-thirds of monthly headline increase attributed to 0.1% rise in shelter prices, partially offset by 1.5% decline in energy index (extending June's 5.7% decline). Core goods increased 0.2% following June's 0.1% decline, while core services rose 0.2% following June's flat reading; core goods were largely expected to remain fairly cool, though IT equipment was flagged in previews as potential source of upside, which materialized with a 1.4% increase following June's 0.9% decline. Elsewhere in the report, food rose 0.1% vs June's 0.2% rise; apparel rose 0.1% vs June's 0.6% decline; new vehicles up 0.1% vs June's flat reading; used cars and trucking jumped 0.4% vs June's 0.2% decline; medical care services rose 0.6% vs June's 0.1% decline; air fares jumped 2.2% vs June's 0.2% gain; appliances rose 0.8% vs June's 1.5% decline; car insurance fell 0.3% vs June's 2.0% decline. In-line report prompted a slight dovish repricing of September rate expectations, with CME FedWatch now showing a 38% probability of a hike versus 46% just before the release. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Aug-2026 07:13	Wednesday morning check-in: July CPI out this morning: Headline CPI expected to increase 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core expected to increase 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (in line with the post-pandemic lows seen in January and February). Citi pointed out that despite all the talk about sticky underlying inflation, core CPI has met or come in cooler than consensus for 14 of last 15 releases. Bespoke Investment Group noted there hasn't been a stronger-than-expected headline or core July CPI report since 2020. Positive earnings takeaways from the AI names: CoreWeave takeaways focused on demand strength/broadening, margin inflection (and better margin contribution from new contracts, pricing power, re-contracting (older SKUs like A100s) and backlog visibility. Lumentum takeaways focused on EML/laser demand still 30%+ ahead of supply, pump lasers sold out, 1.6T transceivers starting to ramp and structural margin expansion story. Super Micro Computer takeaways highlighted much better FY27 outlook, backlog strength/diversity (customer and product). Not much new on US-Iran conflict: Not much new when it comes to the Middle East where diplomacy hope and skepticism remain elevated at the same time and seemingly most important for the market, kinetic hostilities remain muted. The more optimistic comments continue to come from Pakistan, with latest report noting US and Iran agreed to extend 60-day ceasefire under the Islamabad MOU (though no decision on extension timeframe). However, Reuters cited senior Iranian source who said no discussions over extending ceasefire but there are discussions about US returning to MoU. Buyers coming back (and some never left): Latest update from Citadel Securities (Rubner) discussed how buying capacity is rebuilding. Noted retail returned as a net buyer last week, though also pointed out it is paying for protection in options. Added that passive flow bid never left during July momentum unwind, while corporate buyback window reopens and August typically one of strongest months for execution. Also highlighted outsized focus on depressed volatility driving acceleration in demand for upside toward record levels. Labor market debate: Latest weekly ADP private payrolls slowed for a sixth straight week with pace of gains (~8,300) slowing to less than half of where it was month earlier. Followed a weak July employment report that saw NFP contracted by 23K vs expectations for a ~80K gain. However, BofA flagged residual seasonality as better explanation of the softer print. Also some focus on the July NFIB small business optimism index out this week, which highlighted big ramp in hiring intentions and labor quality as a big issue facing small businesses. Collins supported July Fed decision, open to rate hike: Boston Fed President Collins (non-voter) told the FT she supported last month's decision to leave policy unchanged. Added she believed policy was "mildly restrictive" and on track to deliver sustained, gradual disinflation. However, noted she would be open to backing a tightening as soon as September if data dictated it. Earlier this week, Fed's Hammack (voter) told Yahoo Finance multiple rate hikes may be needed. Market pricing in a ~50% probability of a September tightening and just under 30 bp of rate hikes this year. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Aug-2026 15:05	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: Pakistan says the US and Iran are close to securing "some sort" of deal; Qatar says Hormuz talks in "advanced stage" (CBS) Houthi attack on small cargo ship in Red Sea Tuesday kills four (Reuters) US fired on Panama-flagged ship attempting to run American blockade of Iranian ports (link) Advisor to Iran Supreme Leader says Hormuz will remain closed until Iran's conditions are met (link) Markets: Investors show signs of complacency as VIX drops despite ongoing Middle East tensions (FT) CTAs triple underweight bond positions, create record $300M exposure per bp move in 10Y yield into Wednesday's CPI report (Bloomberg) Citadel argues the worst of technical unwind is now behind market; sees investors rebuilding leverage (Bloomberg) Economy: US auto loans hit record high in April-June period, according to NY Fed (Reuters) US credit card debt climbs to $1.2T as K-shaped divide persists among households (CNBC) US existing home sales fall for second straight month (NAR) Central banks: Atlanta Fed's Interim President Venable says inflation too high, easing rates will depend on Middle East (US News) Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says inflation biggest problem US economy faces; labor market stable (link) AI: Nvidia releases first open-source AI model following CEO Huang's public support for the technology (CNBC) Corporate: Shein prepares for Hong Kong IPO as soon as next week at $30-40B valuation (Reuters) Boeing delivers 53 jets in July trailing rival Airbus as production slows from June levels (Reuters) Joby Aviation to acquire Resonant Sciences for $500M with aim of building out defense business (TechCrunch) Private credit: As lending standards tighten, private credit funds clamping down on PIKs (link) Energy: EIA expects ongoing disruptions to Mideast crude output of about 600K bpd to continue through 2027 (EIA) Russian crude exports fall to 3.71M bpd, lowest level since May amid ongoing Ukrainian refinery attacks (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: BA, JOBY, NVDA	show story hide story
11-Aug-2026 12:34	Tuesday midday check-in: No narrative: Market has been fairly light on narrative since early last week with rally to start August chalked up to cleaner positioning, strong earnings, stable macro and diplomacy hopes. Earnings spin remains very positive, particularly from a revisions trend perspective. Positioning has started to recover from July lows, including in levered ETFs. Stable macro still largely intact but dented by weak July employment report. Middle East diplomacy remains consensus but SoH deal increasingly complicated and likely to be very fragile CPI preview: July CPI report out on Wednesday 12-Aug at 08:30. Headline CPI expected to increase 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core expected to increase 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (in line with the post-pandemic lows seen in January and February). Usual moving pieces in the preview with continued benign shelter inflation a high-profile area of agreement. Some debate surrounding core services ex-shelter following June weakness, along with extent of decline in auto insurance. Apple price increase impact expected in core goods. Choppy oil: Oil choppy with a mixed batch of headlines out of the Middle East. Pakistan said US and Iran close to "some sort" of deal, while Qatar said talks between Iran and Oman over managing SoH at an advanced stage. However, details few and far between, Iran continues to insist that SoH will not reopen until its conditions (which are seemingly a nonstarter for US) are met and kinetic activity has picked up again with multiple vessels in the Red Sea attacked. AI infrastructure day: AI infrastructure plays largely outperforming today with several developments supporting the bullish narrative, including recent Nvidia $500B+ partnership investment with six major investment firms. Fermi announced a $6.5B, 15-year datacenter lease agreement (222 MW initial phase) with TensorWave. In addition, Riot reached $9.1B, 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic for 191 MW of AI data center capacity. On Holdings weighs on some apparel & accessories names: On Holdings under pressure and sending a number of other apparel & accessories names, particularly the athletic-related plays, lower. Stock under pressure on Q2 sales miss and downward revision to FY sales guidance (vs beat and raise that seemed to be expected). Flagged weaker Wholesale segment, where environment was promotional and company did not chase sales with discounts. More positive takeaways revolved around DTC strength. Also some talk of inventory management ahead of 2027 innovation wave. Watching gold: Gold up a little under 1% this week after a 7%+ rally last week. Latest Nomura cross-asset update (McElligott) noted gold has been the big story over the last couple of weeks, rallying 10% since July FOMC meeting (Warsh credibility concerns, yen intervention). Followed a 27% drawdown from late January to mid-July. Flagged gold as a "pressure release valve" for "loss of control" worries in bond market (where corporate supply also a factor). Goldman Sachs noted pickup in investor interest in gold and $1.6B worth of inflows to spot-gold ETFs last week. Small business optimism highest in nearly a year: NFIB small business optimism index up 2.4 points in July to highest since last August. Report noted 8 of 10 components increased and 2 decreased. Hiring plans improved substantially and drove bulk of increase. Capex plans another area of improvement. Uncertainty index increased and remained well above historical average on uncertainty about whether to expand and around capex plans. Reports of inflation as single most important problem fell for first time this year, though from highest level in June since October 2024. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Aug-2026 10:12	July existing home sales beat; July NFIB small-business optimism highest since Aug-25: July existing home sales came in at 4.06M vs consensus 4.04M and June's revised 4.13M (was 4.09M). Median home price reached an all-time high of $440,600, up 1.8% Y/Y; still, report highlighted improving affordability despite record-high prices as wage growth outpaces price gains, though stalled inventory growth risks renewed price acceleration. NFIB small-business optimism index for July came in at 99.8, rising above prior reading of 97.4 and now highest since Aug-25. Hiring plans drove much of the headline improvement, jumping 9 points to 20%, the highest since Oct-22 and well above historical averages. Employment Index rose 1.9 points, its first increase following four consecutive monthly declines. Though still elevated, both actual and planned price increases dropped notably from June after four consecutive months of increases, while reports of inflation as the single most important problem fell for the first time this year. Sales metrics were a softer spot, with actual sales flat and expectations weakening. Elsewhere this morning, ADP weekly private payrolls showed 8.25K average over prior four weeks, a sixth-straight deceleration and lowest since January. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Aug-2026 07:36	Tuesday check-in: Waiting for CPI (and PPI): July CPI out on Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday. More discussion in the financial press (link) about the importance of this week's inflation prints for September FOMC policy expectations, despite new Fed Chair Warsh's pushback against focusing too much on individual releases. Recent FT article noted Warsh would be open to a September tightening if inflation came in hotter and market priced in tighter policy. Market currently pricing in a ~52% probability of a 25 bp rate hike in September and ~30 bp of rate hikes through year-end. Oil, Middle East headlines volatile: Oil has given back an earlier rally on latest headlines suggesting both progress in talks between Iran and Oman on controlling the SoH and that (per Pakistan) the US and Iran are close to reaching some arrangement. However, details few and far between and most of the recent reports have continued to highlight myriad complexities, particularly given the extent of Tehran's demands and Trump's seeming shift to a patience dynamic to inflict max economic pain. Nvidia confirms $500B AI infrastructure financing partnership: Nvidia confirmed it is partnering with six leading US investment firms to invest $500B in AI infrastructure. Coalition will "create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for Nvidia customers". Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC the idea is to make Nvidia compute an "investable asset class". Added that the money will all be third-party capital. Development plays into both the bullish insatiable compute/capex demand narrative (including in terms of visibility) and the more cautious circular financing narrative. Intel boosts capital raise to $20B: Intel raised $20B in a secondary share sale, up from the $15B it had originally targeted when it announced the capital raise on Monday morning. Offering priced at $95 per share, a ~6.5% discount to last Friday's close. Bloomberg reported share attracted more than $100B in demand. Goldman Sachs recently estimated a record ~$700B of corporate equity supply in 2026 ($225B via IPOs and $450B via other issuance). However, noted that only equates to ~1% of R3K market cap in total, similar to average annual issuance from 2015-2019. AI inference costs coming down: Lower AI inference costs another high-profile piece of the bullish AI compute demand narrative (Jevons Paradox). SCMP highlighted recent research note from Jefferies, which pointed out that average inference prices (cost for businesses to run AI models) have fallen to a yearly low, down over 40% in just the last ten weeks or so. Highlighted price-cutting push from both the US frontier labs and China open-source models. Model layer commoditization puts scrutiny on frontier economics (into IPOs) but still seen as a positive for picks-and-shovels trade. AI not impacting jobs: The July Challenger Report on layoffs noted that AI was cited as the leading reason for job cuts for a fifth straight month. However, also noted that AI seems to be shifting labor market, not dismantling it. BofA pushed back on the notion of AI as a meaningful labor market drag. Noted job growth currently not correlated with AI exposure and labor demand also appears unaffected by AI usage. While it might be a headwind on entry level employment, firm pointed out it is also driving job growth in infrastructure related sectors. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Aug-2026 07:13	US, Iran tensions remain elevated though deal on Strait of Hormuz reportedly progressing: Latest US and Iran updates leaning hawkish, adding uncertainty that any diplomatic settlement is close. Trump on Monday added new demands to Iran talks, including compensation for those killed or wounded by Iranian actions, damages and deaths in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza (Bloomberg). Trump said those demands will be put firmly into any and all future negotiations, though almost certain to be rejected by Tehran. However, biggest market focus remains on Strait of Hormuz. Qatar's foreign ministry said Tuesday talks between Iran and Oman on controlling Strait of Hormuz have reached advanced stage (Al Jazeera). Recall agreement would reopen the strait, though contingent on US lifting blockade on Iran's ports (AP). Comes as Trump claimed Monday that the US controls Strait of Hormuz, saying it's open now (CNBC), though Iranian officials have continued to insist strait closed until US agrees to demands including lifting blockade. Shipping traffic in strait fell to six on Monday, down from 10-day average of 11 vessels (Reuters). NBC News reported Monday that US military intelligence says Iran's strategic priority has shifted from nuclear program to Strait of Hormuz. Recent press reports said Gulf energy producers concluding Iranian control over strait will become permanent, indefinitely disrupt oil and gas exports, though that is preferable to further war (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Aug-2026 15:41	FOMC voter Hammack suggests multiple hikes may be needed: Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Cleveland Fed President Hammack (voter) argued that a single 25 bp rate hike is insufficient to address current inflation levels, and will likely require some number of movements. Also said she doesn't want to prejudge, but doesn't know exactly where the Fed will end. Hammack believes current rates are not restrictive enough to slow economic growth or curb price increases, arguing that that may be a sign that now is the time to act on tightening policy. Also said that the Fed remains committed to the 2% inflation target, though emphasized that the central bank must act rather than rely on market movements. Hammack's comment on market movements echoes St. Louis Fed's Musalem (non-voter), who told the FT last week that he firmly believes the FOMC is not outsourcing policy to markets. Recall Fed Chair Warsh hinted at the July meeting that the recent rise in rates could substitute for a rate hike (FT). Markets see slightly steeper rate hike path Monday after Friday's post-payrolls dovish move, now pricing in 29 bp of hikes through year-end, up 2.5 bp from Friday. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Aug-2026 15:07	Afternoon headlines: Iran-US: Trump demands compensation from Iran for damage caused by war; reaffirms Tehran will not have nuclear weapon (link) Iran's Supreme Leader appoints six senior military commanders, filling key posts left vacant by US strikes (Iran International) Russia is ramping up work on Iran's Bushehr nuclear expansion, plans to boost workforce by autumn (Oilprice.com) AI: Wall Street giants partner with Nvidia on $500B financing package for AI infrastructure (FT) Microsoft planning to "significantly" increase production of its next-gen AI chips, in discussions with TSMC (The Information) Intel announces $15B stock offering to fuel surging demand for AI compute (CNBC) Meta releases open source Muse Spark AI model to challenge OpenAI, Anthropic (CNBC) Corporate: Netflix nearly doubles US upfront ad commitments in 2026 (Press Release) Imperial Brands is preparing to cut thousands of jobs across geographies as part of cost-cutting drive (Bloomberg) Shein's advisers are pitching company to potential investors at a valuation below $30B (FT) Archer Aviation to acquire Boeing's Wisk Aero, SkyGrid, Insitu subsidiaries (CNBC) GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen is considering withdrawing $56B bid for eBay, may pursue partnership instead (Bloomberg) Private equity firms had 33,575 companies in their portfolios as of 30-Jun, more than double a decade ago (NY Times) Markets: Demand for downside protection on the S&P 500 falls to lowest since Apr-25 (Bloomberg) US high-grade bond market sees busiest day for issuers since January (Bloomberg) Retail investors turn net sellers of SpaceX shares on Friday for first time since IPO (Reuters) Yen weakens as market doubts effectiveness of joint US and Japan currency intervention (FT) Fed: Fed's Hammack says now is the time to act on policy; delaying action will make it harder to return inflation to target (Yahoo Finance) Warsh sees urgent need for Fed to more fully embrace AI, both to understand what is happening in economy and help make better policy decisions (Axios) Energy: Satellite data shows Iran's oil terminals have appeared largely idle this month amid US blockade (Bloomberg) Strait of Hormuz traffic fell sharply over the weekend, with crossings dropping from 15 Friday to six Sunday (link) Trump extends Jones Act waiver for 90 days, with new focus on energy (Bloomberg) US SPR falls below 300M barrels to lowest level since 1983 (CNBC) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: EBAY, GME, INTC, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, SPCX, TSM...(more)	show story hide story
10-Aug-2026 12:44	Monday midday check-in: Quiet start: No big directional drivers in play. Market fairly resilient in the face of upward pressure on oil and yields. SoH reopening complications continue to grab headlines. Energy the big gainer and software rallying again, while tech a laggard on semi pullback. Very quiet in terms of corporate news (and big slowdown in earnings activity this week). Intel secondary, Meta open-weight model, Microsoft chips push and small M&A highlights. Macro in focus later this week with July CPI on Wednesday, PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday. Yields up: Bond yields have seen some upward pressure with front end giving back bulk of its post-NFP gains from Friday. While July employment report was soft, not expected to derail the solid macro backdrop narrative, keeping the Fed focus on inflation. Oil seeing a big bounce to start the week after Iran ratcheted up its demands for reopening SoH. Fiscal continues to get a lot of attention as well and not limited to US with Japan dominating the headlines following recent coordinated intervention. Supply (AI capex) other big area of focus. Intel announces $15B equity offering: Intel announced plans for a $15B equity raise. Move has been widely expected though Mizuho noted expectations it would be preceded by official EMIB and foundry deals with multiple high-profile customers. Goldman Sachs recently pointed out that US corporates have raised $105B via follow-on offerings YTD through July, the largest total at this point in a year since 2021. Noted AI-related issuance has accounted for ~40% of US equity follow-on volume this year. Meta releases scaled-down AI model: Meta announced release of Muse Glimmer, an open-weight AI model small enough to run on a single computer. Company said it still delivers strong performance on key agentic use cases and benchmarks compared with leading models in its size category. Also plans to make weights for a version of the more powerful Muse Spark available as well. Open-weight/source model proliferation has been one of the big themes in AI. Fits with cost-control and data sovereignty dynamics. Broadening earnings growth: Along with overall strength of Q2 earnings, strategists have also talked up broadening growth and favorable revision trends. Morgan Stanley noted Russell 3000 median stock EPS growth is 15%, strongest since 2021, while revenue growth is 8%, highest since 2023. Added that S&P 500 revisions breadth has rebounded to 23%, with 76% of industry groups seeing positive revisions breadth, close to a cycle high. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Aug-2026 07:29	Monday morning check-in: Middle East stalemate: Weekend headlines surrounding US-Iran conflict largely focused on Tehran's high ask for a full SoH reopening. Demands have included US permanently ending war, lifting naval blockade, unfreezing assets and paying war reparations. Much quieter from the Washington side. President Trump said US was "low-keying" it with Iran. Added only "semi-negotiating" with Iran and content to watch as the economic pain it is inflicting piles on. Strong earnings: Strong Q2 earnings received more attention in the press this weekend (link). According to FactSet's Earnings Insight, blended growth rate for Q2 earnings currently stands at 50.4%. This is above the 23.2% expected at the end of the quarter. Excluding Alphabet and Amazon, the blended earnings growth rate would still be 32.0%. In addition, 86% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, above the 80% one-year average and the five-year average of 78%. Another big macro week with CPI the highlight: This week brings a few more high-profile July data points with CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. Headline CPI expected to increase 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core expected to increase 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (in line with the post-pandemic lows seen in January and February). Citi's preview pointed out that despite all the talk about sticky underlying inflation, core CPI has met or come in cooler than consensus for 14 of last 15 releases. More FOMO talk: FOMO chatter was back in the mix early last week as momentum caught a big bounce following the July unwind. Reuters article flagged some of signs of this dynamic, including return of spot up/vol up. Also noted one-month average daily ratio of calls to puts on S&P 500 has risen to 0.9, one of the strongest readings in at least four years. Added that a measure of short-term S&P 500 call skew surged to a two-year high last week. JPMorgan raises S&P 500 price target to 8,000: JPMorgan raised its 2026 S&P 500 price target to 8,000 from 7,800 on the back of its latest round of upward earnings revisions. Now estimates 2026 EPS at $365 (+35% y/y) vs consensus $358, with 2027 at $420 (+15% y/y) vs consensus $408. Firm noted that hyperscaler monetization may start ramping faster than spending, a dynamic that should underpin stronger forward revenue growth and further dampen concerns about ROIC. Renewed private credit scrutiny: Private credit under some renewed scrutiny in the financial press after pushing back against a number of concerns on their Q2 earnings calls. Latest report noted that private-credit loan defaults at Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl and Golub reached highest levels since at least 2021. Added funds managed by Ares, Golub and KKR all reported increases this year in number of borrowers on watch for deteriorating performance. Also discussed multiple headwinds on performance. Apple testing CXMT chips, downgraded at Jefferies: Apple's push to offset surging memory costs continues to grab headlines. Latest report over the weekend noted company testing memory chips from China's CXMT across multiple product lines with goal of securing White House approval of using them in some devices sold in China. Stock downgraded to underperform from hold at Jefferies today. Firm said supply checks suggest all-glass iPhone has been canceled due to low yield, marking notable setback in boosting ASP and margin. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Aug-2026 07:05	StreetAccount Event Preview: July Core CPI July core CPI out Wednesday (12-Aug, 8:30 ET). Consensus for 0.2% after June -0.02% print (first contraction since May-20), annualized core forecast of 2.5% down from prior 2.6%, which would be lowest since February. Some economist previews said softer June print an anomaly as services categories should rise back to trend in July. BofA noted large June declines in motor vehicle insurance, wireless services unlikely to repeat. However, some said shelter likely to remain relatively cool, reflecting ongoing slowdown. Core goods overall expected to remain fairly cool, though UBS sees upside risk in IT categories (computers and accessories, software) given Adobe Digital Price Index trends, Apple price hikes. Note JPMorgan economists recently estimated every 10% increase in tech hardware costs raises core CPI by 0.1%, while 0.2-0.4% of inflation levels tabbed to shock in memory prices. Autos may reverse negative June prints, with Goldman Sachs forecasting 0.5% increase in used car prices, 0.1% increase in new vehicles. Street mixed on dynamics between Fed and inflation. Citi said ongoing disinflation in coming months should give Fed reason to hold off on rate hikes, while BofA said based on their forecasts, sticky inflation could push FOMC voters like Cook, Paulson, Waller close to September hike. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Aug-2026 07:00	Iran-US deal remains base case despite Tehran's hardened demands: Relatively busy Iran-US headlines over the weekend, with no official SoH deal and significant gaps remaining; Trump reportedly told advisers he is willing to end the war without nuclear deal, potentially declaring victory if Hormuz fully reopens (Times of Israel); also said Sunday he prefers economic pressure over more strikes, describing the two sides as "semi-negotiating"; FT reported no Iranian oil tankers have loaded at Kharg Island for at least a week due to US blockade, pressuring regime revenues (Axios, FT). However, Iran hardened its terms for reopening Hormuz, with six demands including US troop withdrawals, sanctions relief, and release of frozen assets; demands go well beyond Hormuz-focused terms discussed to date, complicating a quick agreement even as Iran said an Oman-brokered deal over SoH was near (Politico) Reports out of Washington show declining appetite for renewed fighting, particularly ahead of midterm elections; Trump's top general is reportedly urging White House officials to find off-ramp from Iran war as military options remain limited (CNN); other reporting suggests Tehran sees an advantage in keeping Trump entangled in the war ahead of the midterms (The Guardian). General consensus among analysts is that risk of renewed flare-up remains, though both sides appear keen to avoid serious escalation, with near-term deal still the base case; Citi still expects deal but raised its Q3 Brent forecast on Friday to $80/bbl from $75/ to reflect a more drawn-out process (Reuters). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Aug-2026 10:57	StreetAccount Macro Update: Weekend Headlines Middle East: Trump is reportedly privately signaling he's willing to end Iran war without nuclear deal if SoH opens (Times of Israel) Trump's top general urging White House officials to find off-ramp from Iran war (CNN) Iran says deal to reopen SoH is nearing but its conditions must be met (Bloomberg, Reuters) Iran demands lifting of US naval blockade and sanctions, and withdrawal of US military from region (CNBC) Iran rules out direct talks with US on deal to open SoH (Bloomberg) Israel rejects 15-point plan backed by Trump aimed at disarming Hamas in Gaza (NY Times) Yemen is falling back into civil war as fragile truce between Houthis and government deteriorates (NY Times) Corporate: Berkshire turns aggressive buyer under CEO Abel, snapping three-year selling streak with $20B equity spree led by $10B Alphabet stake (FT, CNBC) Sweetgreen, other salad chains seeing falling traffic amid continued Cyclospora fears (CNBC) Barrick's North American mine IPO plan is facing growing investor backlash (Bloomberg) Paramount pledges 30 theatrical releases annually if Warner deal closes (Bloomberg) AI: Apple testing memory chips from China's CXMT across ‌product lines including iPhones and MacBooks (Reuters) Nvidia to invest up to $3B in Stargate data center developer Lancium (The Information) OpenAI to slow some work on AI model Astra due to security concerns (TechCrunch) Moonshot revamping corporate governance as it seeks Beijing's approval for an IPO (FT) Harvey, a legal AI startup, in talks to raise $500M+ at $15.5B valuation (The Information) Situational Awareness' mystery private investment revealed as chip startup Source Foundry (Bloomberg) Switch confidentially files for US IPO (Reuters) Markets: Investors rotate back into European equities as strong earnings and easing Mideast tensions revive inflows (FT) South Korea stock turmoil eases as deleveraging progresses, though foreign selling persists (Bloomberg) Leveraged ETF growth is magnifying momentum-driven market moves (Bloomberg) Energy: No tankers have loaded at Kharg Island for at least a week due to US blockade, pressuring regime revenues (FT) Houthi rebels claim responsibility for weekend fire at Saudi Aramco refinery (CNBC) Turkey restricts commercial ship traffic into Black Sea amid surge in attacks on civilian vessels (Bloomberg) Ukraine agrees to not target some non-Russian oil tankers and critical Black Sea infrastructure (Bloomberg) Washington: Pentagon ramping up pressure on defense companies amid depleted weapons stockpiles (AP) US Senate passes short-term funding bill to avoid shutdown before November midterm elections (NBC) China: China reports cooling inflation as price pressures from Iran war ease (FT) China's trade surplus with Germany grows as reliance on European industry declines (Reuters) AI Chip designer Moore Threads says it plans to list in Hong Kong (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, B, BRK.B, NVDA, PSKY, SG, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
07-Aug-2026 12:30	StreetAccount Event Recap: July nonfarm payrolls July nonfarm payrolls declined 23K m/m vs consensus for 80K m/m increase, making it softest print since Feb-26 (-156K); nonfarm payrolls have now steadily decelerated for fourth straight month; June/May revised down a combined 103K, cutting 3M average growth to just +20K. Unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% vs expectations for a steady reading of 4.2%, now lowest since Jun-25, driven mostly by participation rate slipping to 61.4%; participation rate has fallen ~70 bp since Jan-26, largely among prime-age workers, to lowest in over five years. Wage growth was cooler than expected with AHE rising 0.1% m/m (vs consensus +0.3%, June +0.3%); annualized AHE up 3.2% (vs consensus +3.5%, June +3.4%). Job losses were led by government (-53K), leisure/hospitality (-40K) and retail (-19K), though private payrolls actually again rose 30K; analysts note the 53K decline in government payrolls was almost entirely driven by 50K drop in local government education, viewed as largely seasonal/noisy; job gains were led by health care/social assistance (+23K), construction (+22K) and professional/business services (+18K). Health care/social assistance gain came largely as expected, though some analysts had also anticipated a leisure/hospitality rebound from June's decline; weaker summer hiring (particularly among new grads), and a potential pullback in government hiring were flagged as downside risks. Analyst reactions emphasized report's dovish Fed implications, with weaker payrolls, negative revisions, and softer household employment making hikes harder to justify, particularly if inflation continues to cool; however, potential sticky inflation flagged as a complicating factor for Fed's path. September rate hike odds fell to 41% from 55% immediately before the release, per CME FedWatch. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Aug-2026 11:35	Bearish talking points for week-ended 7-Aug: July employment report much weaker than expected. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23K, below consensus expectations for a ~80K gain. Two prior months revised down by 103K, pushing three-month moving average to just 20K. Unemployment rate unexpectedly fell 0.1pp to 4.1%, though this was driven by a similar-size decline in the labor force participation rate to 61.4%, the lowest level in over five years. Household employment fell 87K. Fed credibility concerns may linger following FT report that new Fed Chair Warsh plans to stick with leaner communications style, despite market backlash. Reaction function uncertainty has been the key area of scrutiny and flagged as a potential upside driver of rate vol. Also concerns this dynamic could trigger a spike in inflation expectations and extend monetary policy lags. Strait of Hormuz deal looked increasingly complicated as the week progressed and there continued to be widespread skepticism surrounding durability of any interim agreement that may be reached. Reports highlighted myriad complications, including Iranian demands to bar US and Israeli vessels and collect 5-7% fees. Also more focus on pressure from Iranian hardliners and pickup in attacks from the Houthis. At the same time, US options said to be more limited amid munitions shortage. High-profile semi/storage names underperformed following earnings (despite positive fundamental takeaways). AMD lagged on elevated expectations and SpaceX comments about exclusivity with Nvidia. SanDisk takeaways flagged mixed Sep Q guidance that lagged buyside expectations. Western Digital pullback blamed on elevated expectations and high bar from SanDisk's blowout Q. Also some scrutiny on EB shipment growth deceleration Renewed AI capex scrutiny as SpaceX fell 13.5% despite its better-than-expected debut earnings and positive outlook commentary. Selloff blamed on much larger than expected capex of $18.4B (more than 2x sales) and management commentary indicating Q3 and Q4 could be same. However, following the better ROIC takeaways from Microsoft and Amazon, SpaceX did note payback period on AI running < one year. Google meaningfully lagged the Mag 7 rally despite a strong start to the week. Stock fell just over 4% on Wednesday following latest AI brain drain concerns. Jeff Dean, company's chief scientist (30^th employee), and three other high-profile researchers leaving to start an AI-focused scientific discovery startup. Separately, Demis Hassabis stepping back from day-to-day DeepMind leadership. Both SemiAnalysis and NY Times also cast doubt on Google as a frontier name. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Aug-2026 11:34	Bullish talking points for week-ended 7-Aug: Strong Q2 earnings the big theme in the strategist commentary to start the week. Goldman Sachs noted nearly 65% of S&P 500 reporters have beaten consensus expectations by at least 1SD, one of highest levels on record. Deutsche Bank highlighted record beat rate, sales growth at a 25-year high and margins at a new record. Morgan Stanley pointed out median stock earnings growth has accelerated to 14%. Strong guidance and revision trends another area of focus this week. JPMorgan noted that of the US companies that have provided guidance data, the percentage that has revised up their profit outlook is the highest since 2021. Deutsche Bank noted consensus has continued to take forward earnings in 2H26 and 2027 higher in contrast to typical cuts. Jefferies highlighted acceleration in 2FY EPS revision ratio from already very strong levels. Cleaner positioning highlighted as a bounce tailwind following outsized de-grossing/deleveraging amid the July momentum unwind. Goldman Sachs pointed out that its prime data showed that overall book gross leverage saw largest decline in July in the history of its data set, behind only July 2025. JPMorgan said US HF de-grossing more negative than every year except 2020 and 2022. Added recent sharp 3-day de-gross episode was comparable to late-Jan '21 and mid-Nov '22. Back to the de-escalation phase of the escalate to de-escalate narrative surrounding the US-Iran conflict, pressuring oil. Trump said over the weekend he canceled plans for strikes after lobbying from Gulf countries and Iran. Added denuclearization deal also close. Reports throughout the week focused on talks between Iran and Oman over an interim agreement to open/reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Bad news is good news spin surrounding the weaker-than-expected July employment report, which helped drive a bullish steepening move in Treasuries on Friday. Not expected to trigger a meaningful shift in macro sentiment (partly due to structural influences) though expected to dampen some of the Fed's current outsized focus on inflation. Softer average hourly earnings print also helpful on the inflation front. ISM manufacturing remained one of the higher-profile signals for the solid macro narrative. Headline reading hit a four-year high in July, new orders (strong leading indicator of both capex and S&P 500 earnings growth) ticked up to 56.7 from 56.0 and employment swung back into expansion. Percentage of positive respondent commentary improved 4pp to 38%. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Aug-2026 11:13	NY Fed consumer survey sees slight downtick in year-ahead inflation expectations: NY Fed's July Survey of Consumer Expectations found median year-ahead inflation expectation sticked down to 3.6% from June's 3.7%; expectations at the three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. On the labor market, survey noted mean perceived probability of losing one's job over the next year rose to 14.2% from the prior 14.1%, though remained below the 14.5% trailing-twelve-month rate. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if a current job is lost rose by 1.3pp to 46.2%, with the increase most pronounced for those with household incomes below $50K. Expected income growth and spending levels over the coming year changed little, though there was an uptick in respondents concerned about missing a minimum debt payment (to 12.0% from 10.8%), though again this remains below recent averages. A larger share of households reported better perceptions of their current financial conditions, with year-ahead expectations improving as well. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Aug-2026 08:53	July nonfarm payrolls well below consensus; unemployment rate ticks lower: July nonfarm payrolls declined 23K m/m vs consensus for 80K m/m increase, making it softest print since Feb-26 (-156K); nonfarm payrolls have now steadily decelerated for fourth straight month; June payrolls revised down to +20K from +57K, while May was lowered to +63K from +129K. Average hourly earnings (AHE) increased 0.1% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% increase and June's 0.3% rise; annualized AHE up 3.2% vs consensus 3.5% and June's 3.4%. July unemployment rate came in at 4.1% vs consensus 4.2% and June's unrevised 4.2%; July labor force participation rate of 61.4% vs consensus 61.5% and June's 61.5%. Breaking down the report, biggest areas of job losses were seen in government (-53K), leisure/hospitality (-40K) and retail trade (-19K); largest job gains seen in health care/social assistance (+23K), construction (+22K), professional/business activities (+18K). Analyst previews generally expected continued solid headline job growth, citing low jobless claims during the reference period, while ADP's private employment data also remained positive. July's weaker-than-expected payrolls report saw September rate-hike odds fall to 42% from 55% immediately before the release, per CME FedWatch. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Aug-2026 07:33	Friday morning check-in: July NFP on tap: July employment report out this morning. Street looking for ~80K m/m increase in NFP following the 57K gain in June. Unemployment rate seen holding at 4.2% (though risk skewed higher) while average hourly earnings expected to post another 0.3% monthly rise. Previews discussed depressed claims, softer (but still solid) ADP weekly private payrolls trend, World Cup hiring, education/health services leadership, and below-consensus July NFP prints in recent years. SoH deal looks increasingly complicated: Still waiting for an interim agreement to open/reopen SoH that has reportedly been "close" for better part of the week. The more optimistic messaging has come from the White House, while Iran has repeatedly said US not involved in the discussions. Recent reports have highlighted myriad complications, including Iranian demands to bar US and Israeli vessels and collect 5-7% fees. Also more focus on pressure from Iranian hardliners and pickup in attacks from the Houthis. Trump says he won't criticize Warsh: President Trump was asked by Punchbowl News whether new Fed Chair should avoid hiking rates before the election. Trump said it's up to Warsh, but not completely, arguing that he has a Fed board that is "very political'. Stressed that he think Warsh is great and said he would not be criticizing him. Recent FT report noted Warsh plans to stick with tight communications style and open to tightening in September if inflation readings come in hot and bond market prices in a policy shift. Another high-profile macro week on tap: Week of 10-Jul brings a couple more high-profile July data points with CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. Headline CPI expected to increase 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core expected to increase 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (inline with the post-pandemic lows seen in January and February). Headline inflation in June was dragged down by lower energy prices while core inflation readings came in cooler than expected. Extreme bullishness: Latest Flow Show report from BofA noted Bull & Bear indicator pushed up to 9.7 from 9.4, highest level since 2021. While there has been a recent flurry of updates highlighting the meaningful de-grossing/deleveraging with the July momentum unwind, bounce earlier this week also came with some FOMO chatter. Report also flagged another $9.6B in net inflows to US equities through week-ended 5-Aug, putting US on track for a record year of inflows. Good guidance: Some of the discussion about very strong Q2 earnings metrics continues to be accompanied by a focus on favorable guidance and revision trends. JPMorgan highlighted 25% y/y earnings growth for Q2 with 88% of reporters beating consensus and earnings surprising to the upside by 11% in aggregate. Also noted that of the US companies that have provided guidance data, the percentage that has revised up their profit outlook is the highest since 2021. Homebuilder M&A: M&A back in the headlines Homebuilder space in focus as Beazer Homes agreed to be acquired by Dream Finders in an all-cash deal valued at $916M, or $2.2B when including debt. The $33.50 per share Beazer Homes shareholders will receive represents a negligible premium to prior close but compares to the $25.75 Dream Finders offered in May. Deal will create sixth-largest US homebuilder. Alibaba seeking revenue share from Qwen3.8-Max users: More focus on monetization push surrounding open-weight models from China. Reuters reported Alibaba plans to seek revenue share from Qwen3.8-Max users ahead of its release. Also noted Moonshot's Kimi K3 includes licensing provision seeking 30% of revenue from users offering model as a service and generating $20M+ in yearly sales. Added Alibaba planning similar. Follows recent price hike announcement from DeepSeek. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Aug-2026 15:01	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: Iran seeking to bar US, Israeli ships from the SoH until Tehran has been compensated (Bloomberg) Iran warns Gulf states to convince Trump to end strikes, otherwise face attacks on their oil, power, and energy facilities (Reuters) Industry sources warn proposed Iran-Oman deal on the SoH not workable (Reuters) Trump says Washington Post story about Hegseth and munitions depletion is completely false (Truth Social) Central banks: Kevin Warsh sticking with lean Fed messaging, prepared to hike if inflation comes in hot (FT) Warsh relying on the market to tighten risks heightened volatility, pricing overshoots (Bloomberg) Corporate: Nuscale reportedly has $51B in contracted revenue ahead of September US IPO (Bloomberg) Krispy Kreme cuts capital spending 70% as franchising push helps reduce debt (Bloomberg) Markets: Kalshi traders now see ~66% chance the S&P 500 hits 8,000 in 2026, up from 40% at end of June (CNBC) Economy: Rates for US 30-year mortgages at highest level since July 2025 (Bloomberg) Trade/tariffs: Bill on Russia sanctions could give Trump ability to levy up to 100% tariffs on importers of Russian energy (Axios) Trump administration officials considering phase-in of polysilicon tariffs to help companies working on US projects (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: DNUT	show story hide story
06-Aug-2026 11:58	Thursday midday check-in: Another day without a clear theme: Tough to attach a narrative to today following earnings/positioning/macro/Middle East diplomacy tailwinds earlier in the week. S&P, Nasdaq and R2K not far from unchanged level. Very busy from an earnings perspective with some scrutiny in tech surrounding semis/HDD/software results. Higher oil and yields in focus but not really a risk-off driver. Macro the focus over the near term with July NFP tomorrow and CPI next Wednesday. Oil up, yields up: Oil higher as market continues to wait for an interim agreement to open/reopen SoH that has been teased for days now. Latest headlines continue to highlight myriad complications on multiple fronts. Escalate to de-escalate dynamic expected to persist. Higher oil likely a factor behind higher yields though Fed credibility/independence issues have also received a lot of attention today. Warsh to stick with tight communication strategy, prepared to raise rates if inflation readings come in hot: New Fed Chair Warsh has been under some scrutiny, particularly when it comes to unwillingness to discuss central bank reaction function. FT, citing sources close to Warsh, said he plans to stick with leaner communications style. Also pushed back against market credibility concerns, noting inflation expectations remain low. Noted Warsh would be prepared to tighten in September if inflation readings come in hot and market dials up its expectations for higher Fed funds. Initial claims stay low, Challenger Layoffs down: Initial claims little changed at 199K in week-ended 1-Aug. Marked third straight reading below 200K. Four-week moving average also fell below 200K level. However, Citi did note that if seasonal patterns hold, this week should close to trough with higher initial claims in coming weeks. Separately, Challenger Layoffs down 27% m/m and 46% y/y to 33,429 in July. Lowest monthly total in three years. AI still cited as key driver of job cuts but report also noted it is shifting, not dismantling labor market. July NFP up next: July employment report out on Friday morning. Street looking for ~80K m/m increase in NFP following the 57K gain in June. Unemployment rate seen holding at 4.2% (though risk skewed higher) while average hourly earnings expected to post another 0.3% monthly rise. Previews discussed depressed claims, softer (but still solid) ADP weekly private payrolls trend, World Cup hiring, education/health services leadership, and below-consensus July NFP prints in recent years. Bull-Bear spread improves but still negative: AAII bullish sentiment jumped 6 pp w/e to 37.0% in week-ended 5-Aug, the highest in three weeks. Bearish sentiment fell nearly 4pp to a three-week low of 38.0%. Bull-Bear spread improved to -1.0% from -11.1% though still negative for third straight week. Lots of moving pieces in recent flow/positioning/sentiment updates, including some discussion about the favorable corporate flow dynamics typically seen in August as buyback windows reopen. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Aug-2026 08:47	Jobless claims remain subdued; July's Challenger report shows AI still top driver of layoffs: Initial claims came in at 199K vs consensus 202K and previous week's upwardly revised 198K (was 197K); 4-week moving average was 198,750, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's; continuing claims came in at 1801K vs consensus 1790K and prior week's downwardly revised 1777K (was 1782K). Elsewhere, this morning's July's Challenger layoffs report showed layoffs fell to 33,429, down 27% from June, and down 46% on annualized basis; hiring plans improved, with employers announcing 16,095 hires, up 47% m/m. Technology remained the layoff epicenter, announcing 9,867 cuts in July and 149,023 YTD (+67% y/y), accounting for 31% of all layoffs in 2026 thus far; AI remained the top layoff driver, cited in 33% of July's, marking its fifth straight month as the leading cause. After AI, largest reasons for layoffs were market/economic conditions (90,075 YTD), business closures (84,630), restructuring (57,476), and loss of contracts (40,758). Finally, US Q2 Productivity increased 1.4% q/q vs consensus for 0.6% increase and Q1's revised 0.8% increase (was +0.3%); Unit Labor Costs up 1.3% q/q vs consensus for 2.1% rise and Q1's revised 1.3% increase (was +1.8%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Aug-2026 07:35	Thursday morning check-in: SanDisk pullback more about expectations: SanDisk a laggard despite a fiscal Q4 beat on the back of strong memory demand, limited supply, and pricing power. Datacenter revenue surged 100%+ sequentially. Takeaways flagged mixed Sep Q guidance that lagged buyside expectations. Also some scrutiny surrounding pricing momentum sustainability. However, NBM story a standout. New Business Model agreements now represent $93.9B of minimum contracted revenue, covering over half of FY27 bits and ~67% of FY28. Western Digital pullback exacerbated by SanDisk blowout Q: Western Digital under pressure despite a fiscal Q4 beat and better Q1 guidance. Takeaways blamed pullback on elevated expectations and the high bar from SanDisk's blowout Jun Q. Also some scrutiny on EB shipment growth deceleration (below long-term CAGR). However, overdone selloff talk focused on timing/mix issues surrounding product transitions, LTAs now extending into 2029-2031, accelerating price trends, HBD progress. Deal (still) close but may be messy: Consensus continues to revolve around an interim agreement to open/reopen SoH. However, still in waiting mode and lots of potential complications. Iran said understanding in principle has been reached with Oman on almost all key issues, though still needs to be signed by Khamenei and cautioned that full normalization ultimately dependent on US lifting its blockade (Bloomberg). Iran's continued push for fees another widely discussed stumbling block (Reuters). Trump talks to Warsh: Lot of attention around the headline, but nothing really stood in report that President Trump has talked repeatedly with Warsh since he became Fed chair. Noted Trump has tapped Warsh's insight on a number of matters, including potential economic impacts from war in Iran and rapid rise of AI. Article did not flag any explicit White House pressure on Warsh from a monetary policy perspective. Cook and Daly still in waiting mode: Latest Fedspeak seems to fit with the waiting mode mantra that prevailed at the July FOMC meeting. Fed Governor Cook said she would support tightening policy if inflation pressure does not start dissipating. Also conceded a rate hike may not be needed. Fed's Daly said she was fully supportive of decision last week to hold rates steady. Stressed Fed has a lot of information it still needs to collect. Added there are good reasons to believe supply shocks won't have a lasting impact on inflation. DeepSeek raising prices: Proliferation of open-weight Chinese models has been one of the bigger stories in AI. Plays into narrowing performance gap with frontier models, better value proposition for corporates looking to control costs and broader scrutiny surrounding frontier model economics. Bloomberg reported DeepSeek planning a substantial price increase across its AI services. Noted move could mark an inflection point as Chinese players shift focus from market share grab toward monetization. Hedge funds hit on momentum unwind: July momentum unwind unleashed plenty of hedge fund pain beyond the Situational Awareness saga (Bloomberg). Latest Flows & Liquidity report from JPMorgan noted TMT Equity Sector hedge funds lost an unprecedented 10% in July excluding the Situational Awareness loss. Added Multi Strat lost 2.3%, fourth largest in their history. Also pointed out that if capacity of HFs to hold tech exposures is structurally reduced, could put the onus on retail, a dynamic that could bring more volatility. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: Iran says agreement with Oman has been reached on a proposed route for shipping through SoH (NY Times, Bloomberg) Yemen's Houthis are supposedly preparing for full-scale confrontation with Saudi Arabia, according to Iranian media (link) Senior Gulf official sees 50-50 chance Iran-Oman formalize SoH deal by Friday (CNN) AI: Google chief scientist and three other leading researchers leaving to start AI-focused scientific discovery startup (NY Times) Microsoft generates most of its AI revenue from OpenAI, according to company disclosure (Bloomberg) Anthropic forming in-house team to design custom chips for Claude models (Reuters) Corporate: Amazon-owned Zoox to begin charging passengers for robotaxi rides in Vegas next week (Reuters) Kraft Heinz says turnaround making progress, commits another $100M to the plan (Bloomberg) Starboard Value has taken stake in Shake Shack worth several hundred million dollars (Bloomberg) Markets: SpaceX shares poised for more volatility as $101B becomes eligible for sale Thursday (Bloomberg) Commodities: US crude inventories up 2.5M barrels compared with expectations for a 1.2M barrel decline (EIA) Lumber prices at four-year highs with tailwind from tariffs, capacity reductions (link) US shipped record amount of distillate fuel overseas last week (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed's Kashkari says it's time to start slowly raising rates to avoid more drastic hike later (CNBC) Economy: US worker pay appears to be accelerating at a time of lackluster job growth (Axios) Homebuying income gap in the U.S. falls to $22K from $26K a year ago (Redfin) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, GOOGL, KHC, MSFT, SHAK, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 13:36	StreetAccount Event Preview: July nonfarm payrolls July nonfarm payrolls report out Friday at 8:30am Eastern. Street looking for ~80K m/m increase after June's 57K. Unemployment rate seen holding at 4.2% while average hourly earnings expected to post another 0.3% monthly rise. Recall June headline growth came in below consensus, with May and April revised lower. June's unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%, though reflected a notable decline in labor-force participation. Note June JOLTS job openings came in slightly below consensus. Employment component in July's ISM manufacturing report improved to 52.8, flipping from the contractionary 49.7 in June's report; in contrast, employment in July's ISM Services report slipped back into contraction. And July's ADP private payrolls undershot forecasts, printing at 44K (softest since January) after June's 95K. Analyst previews generally expect still-solid headline job growth, with many citing low jobless claims data during the reference period. ADP's weekly private-employment pulse has also remained positive (though has decelerated in recent readings). Education/health services still seen leading job gains while leisure/hospitality could rebound from June's 61K drop (largest since 2020). Several analysts argued recent shifts in summer-employment dynamics (including weaker hiring of new graduates) could be a headwind. Also some thoughts government hiring could flatline or reverse after a return to growth the past couple of months. And there will be significant attention on potential downward revisions to May and June, which would be consistent with recent seasonal trends. Unemployment rate likely to be a key focus following last month's drop on an unexpectedly sharp decline in the labor-force participation rate. Previews generally see likelihood of at least a partial rebound, though rate may not make it all the way back to 4.3%. Analysts note slower but still-steady job growth coming in ahead of the replacement rate will likely give the Fed more space to focus on inflation data, keeping the possibility of 2026 rate hikes on the table. Citi remains the notable outlier, expecting labor-market weakening in the months ahead to pressure the Fed for more cuts. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 12:44	Wednesday midday check-in: No overriding theme: Busy day from a headline perspective but no overriding theme. August risk sentiment has been boosted by overall strength in Q2 earnings, cleaner positioning following July momentum unwind, solid macro data and diplomatic offramp hopes surrounding US-Iran conflict. Mixed takeaways from latest barrage of earnings. Still waiting on widely expected SoH deal. Economic data mixed to softer. Waiting on a deal: Consensus expectations continued to revolve around an interim agreement to reopen SoH. Much of the recent discussion has focused on how the terms of the deal look favorable to Iran, which continues to prioritize leverage over SoH transit given the global market/macro implications. Despite extent of this week's oil pullback, lots of skepticism surrounding durability of a deal and even more skepticism about potential for an agreement on nuclear in the subsequent negotiations. More than 75% of S&P 500 has now reported: Following another massive volume of earnings last night and this morning, more than 75% of the S&P 500 has reported. Key metrics have been juiced by other income reported by Google and Amazon but still look very good even when excluding those names (2^nd straight Q of 20%+ EPS growth and 7^th straight Q of double-digit growth). In addition, earnings beat rate remains elevated at ~86%, well ahead of the five year average of 78%. Google hit by more AI departures: Google under pressure following news that Jeff Dean, the company's chief scientist (30^th employee), and three other high-profile researchers leaving to start Discovery Loop, an AI-focused scientific discovery startup. Separately Demis Hassabis stepping back from day-to-day DeepMind leadership. AI brain drain concerns have been an overhang on Google in recent months. Coming out of Q2 results late last month, stock was pressured by elevated capex/negative FCF dynamics. Capex ramp weighs on SpaceX (despite upbeat ROIC color): SpaceX Q2 results ahead with AI compute growth and Starlink the standouts. Highlighted expectations for $100B revenue run-rate exiting 2026 and pulled forward ~$1T revenue target by a year to 2030, Also noted heat shield problem largely solved and ship catch attempt imminent. Stock hit by much larger than expected capex of $18.4B and management commentary indicating Q3 and Q4 could be same. However, did note payback period on AI running < one year. AMD unable to meet very elevated expectations: AMD takeaways largely upbeat with focus on accelerating server CPU momentum, Helios/MI455 traction, expanding hyperscaler demand. Looking ahead, company expects Data Center revenue to grow well over 100% in 2027, with server CPU growth of more than 70%. Sees long-term revenue CAGR "substantially above" prior target of 35-40% with EPS to exceed $20 annual target in 2-4 years. However, post-earnings pullback blamed on elevated expectations and SpaceX exclusivity with Nvidia. Disney boosted by Parks: Disney a post-earnings outperformer. Parks a key area of focus. Experiences reported record revenue and OI, driven by strong WDW attendance (+3%) and per capita spending (+4%). Highlighted support from investment/marketing. Noted strong domestic tourist and local resident growth and even flagged some moderation in foreign visitation headwinds. 'Monster' Q from Shopify: Shopify the best performer among the notable reporters today following its beat and raise. GMV grew more than 30% for fifth consecutive Q and company guided for low-30s% revenue growth in Q3. AI key area of focus as company talked up its product catalog as the inventory destination for AI shopping agents (2x better conversion). Also noted outsized benefits for small/niche merchants. In addition, economics the same for traditional search or an AI agent. ISM services a mixed bag: Headline ISM services ticked up 0.1pp to 54.1 in July but a bit below 54.5 consensus. New orders the standout, improving to 57.2 from 55.1. However, employment back in contraction after a big June jump, falling to 47.4 from 51.2. In addition, prices paid remained elevated, pushing up to 70.3 from 67.7. Release highlighted continued overall resilience. Inflation, tariff and Middle East impacts the not surprising areas of concern. World Cup mentioned as a tailwind. ADP private payrolls softer: ADP private payrolls increased 44K in July following a revised 95K gain in June, below the 65-70K consensus and weakest since January. Recent trend of weekly ADP prints has also been softer. However, usual discussion about limited read-through for official BLS report (out Friday). Street looking for nonfarm payrolls to increase ~80K in July following a 57K gain in June, fitting with the broader stable labor market theme. Precious metals rally: Precious metals have rallied to best levels in roughly a month today, driving an outsized move higher in the miners. Positioning and technicals seem to be the easiest explanations. When it comes to the former, latest Systematic Flows Monitor from BofA noted trend followers' gold short position still elevated. Speculative positioning in silver depressed (The Market Ear). Recent pullback in dollar (yen intervention) and real rates (which have been pressured higher since US-Iran conflict) also mentioned. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 10:18	July ISM Services slightly below consensus; new orders better, employment lower: July ISM Services came in at 54.1 vs consensus 54.5 and June's 54.0; new orders rose m/m to 57.2 from 55.1; employment index fell to 47.4 from 51.2, returning to contraction territory after one month of expansion. Prices index rose to 70.3 from 67.7; supplier deliveries fell to 52.8 from 54.4, while inventories index ticked higher to 51.4 from 51.2. Respondent commentary leaned slightly positive with most sectors reporting stable or improving activity, albeit with pockets of softness; fuel, labor, and broader input costs continued to rise, while construction firms cited mounting cost pressures and heavy discounting; firms remained optimistic overall but highlighted uncertainty around inflation and Iran war. Meanwhile, Final July S&P Global Services PMI came in at 54.6 vs consensus 54.0 and prior reading of 53.6; activity rose at strongest rate since Oct-25, while job creation was strongest in eight months. Input cost inflation hit its fastest pace since May-25 on tariffs and higher raw material/fuel costs, with firms passing through costs as selling price inflation reached a 14-month high. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 08:51	Latest Treasury refunding once again maintains auction sizes, as expected: Today's release of Treasury's Q3 quarterly refunding statement largely as expected, maintaining issuance levels at $125B ($58B in three-year notes, $42B in ten-year notes, and $25B in 30-year bonds). This was the tenth consecutive quarter of no change to these levels. Statement made no change to longstanding language that "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." Analyst previews had suggested Treasury could start laying the groundwork for eventual auction size increases (expected to come some time in H1'27); at the same time, there was also a sense that Treasury might not want to spook the market after the recent selloff. The accompanying TBAC statement says Treasury remains adequately funded for the remainder of FY26 though the funding gap will begin to widen in FY27 and FY28, adding that Treasury should consider updating its forward-guidance language to preserve flexibility (though note May's statement suggested this should come "a few quarters in advance"). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 08:34	July ADP private payrolls below consensus, softest since January: July ADP private payrolls increased 44K m/m vs consensus for 70K increase and June's revised 95K increase (was +98K); July's monthly rise is weakest since Jan-26 (+11K); bulk of hiring was again in services-providing industries. Median pay gain for job-stayers held steady at 4.4%, while pay growth for job-changers rose to 7.0% from 6.6%, the largest Y/Y increase since Aug-25. Job gains seen in education/health services (+36K), financial activities (+10K), professional/business services (+9K), other services (+6K), information (+5K), manufacturing (+2K), and construction (+1K); job losses seen in leisure/hospitality (-11K), trade/transport/utilities (-8K), and natural resources/mining (-6K). Small-sized establishments again accounted for majority of the topline job growth, mostly coming from firms with 1-19 employees; mid-sized and large establishments also reported net job gains. Report noted accelerating job-switcher pay signals pockets of labor market tightness, while hiring remained uneven across sectors. Comes ahead of Friday's July Nonfarm Payrolls with Street looking for a monthly increase of 80K following June's 57K rise; unemployment rate seen steady at 4.2%. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Aug-2026 07:33	Wednesday morning check-in: Deal close, Houthi complications: More talk of diplomatic traction in Middle East. Trump said US had very good discussions with Iran on Tuesday. Axios reported US, Iran and Oman closing in on interim agreement to reopen SoH. Inbound traffic would go through Iranian waters while outbound traffic would go through Omani waters, in coordination with Iran. No tolls or fees charged during 60-day period. However, also some focus today on Houthi claims they attacked a Saudi tanker in Red Sea (Reuters). Capex ramp weighs on SpaceX: SpaceX Q2 results ahead with AI compute growth and Starlink the standouts. Highlighted expectations for $100B revenue run-rate exiting 2026 and pulled forward ~$1T revenue target by a year to 2030, Also noted heat shield problem largely solved and ship catch attempt imminent. Stock hit by much larger than expected capex of $18.4B and management commentary indicating Q3 and Q4 could be same. However, did note payback period on AI running < one year. AMD up against elevated expectations: AMD takeaways largely upbeat with focus on accelerating server CPU momentum, Helios/MI455 traction, expanding hyperscaler demand. Looking ahead, company expects Data Center revenue to grow well over 100% in 2027, with server CPU growth of more than 70%. Sees long-term revenue CAGR "substantially above" prior target of 35-40% with EPS to exceed $20 annual target in 2-4 years. However, post-earnings pullback blamed on elevated expectations. Supply constraints and warrants also flagged. FOMO chatter: Path of least resistance has been higher on the back of very strong Q2 earnings, cleaner positioning following July momentum unwind, positive macro surprise momentum and latest bout of diplomatic optimism surrounding Middle East that has weighed on oil and yields. This has all triggered some FOMO chatter. Goldman Sachs noted SPX call option volume was over 4M contracts yesterday, highest on record. Also flagged largest two-day decline in SPX put/call skew in nearly a decade. Cleaner positioning tailwind: Extent of July's momentum unwind and deleveraging/de-grossing has been widely flagged as supportive for the strong August start. Goldman Sachs pointed out that its prime data showed that overall book gross leverage saw largest decline in July in the history of its data set, behind only July 2025. JPMorgan said US HF de-grossing in July was more negative than every year except 2020 and 2022. Schmid stays hawkish: Kansas City Fed President Schmid (non-voter) said given strength of demand and investment, he does not see current policy stance as restrictive. Added he believes bringing inflation back down to 2% target will require tighter policy. Also reiterated skepticism that inflation pressures from supply shocks will prove transitory. Market currently pricing in a ~57% probability of a September rate hike. Tariff refunds: Tariff refunds have received a lot of attention during Q2 earnings season, including as a cushion for input cost pressures. Dynamic expected to get even more attention when earnings focus shifts to the retail sector. FT, citing a court filing update, reported Trump administration has paid out ~$100B in tariff refunds since SCOTUS ruling, representing ~60% of the $165B the government collected. Noted pace of refunds has been faster than expected. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Aug-2026 15:06	Afternoon headlines: US-Iran: Treasury Secretary Bessent says US and Iran could reach deal for free movement in the SoH by today or tomorrow (CNBC) Qatar says a de-escalation proposal has been drafted and circulated to Tehran and Washington (Bloomberg) Iran is considering allowing European nations to remove mines from the SoH (Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia pursuing behind-the-scenes diplomacy with Houthi rebels over direct conflict (Financial Post) US State Department announces Israel-Lebanon talks officially began today, will continue through 6-Aug (Reuters) US has reportedly expended "virtually all" of its long-range precision missile stockpile during war with Iran (Reuters) Corporate: Caterpillar boosts 2026 sales growth forecast as AI buildout tailwinds continue to build (Reuters) Novo Nordisk raises earnings forecast citing higher expectations for its obesity and diabetes drug sales (Bloomberg) Chanel's sales rose by double digits in the first half, surpassing peers including LVMH (link) Chipolte announces it is removing jalapenos linked to Minnesota salmonella cases (Bloomberg) Procter & Gamble to acquire supplements company Thorne for $3.8B (CNBC) Ford posts double-digit percentage sales drop in July reflecting vehicle phase outs (CNBC) Central banks: Philadelphia Fed's Paulson (FOMC voter) says keeping an open mind about rates, looking for progress on inflation (link) Trade / Tariffs: Trump administration preparing price floor, tariffs on imported polysilicon and derivative products for chips and solar panels (Reuters) Energy: Survey shows OPEC July crude output up 1.16M bpd as Gulf producers recover some wartime losses (Bloomberg) White House expected to extend Jones Act waiver in coming days (US News) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CAT, CMG, F, NVO, PG	show story hide story
04-Aug-2026 12:17	Tuesday midday check-in: August off to a strong start: US equities seeing good gains for a second straight session. Momentum rally and diplomatic offramp hopes in Middle East that have pressured oil/rates key areas of focus today. Mixed takeaways from another busy earnings day but AI compute/capex still a bright spot and overall Q2 earnings sentiment remains very upbeat (7^th straight Q of double-digit EPS growth). AI in focus again after the close with results from AMD and SpaceX. Momentum strength: Momentum (semis, memory) a standout after lagging a bit during a Monday rally led by the hyperscalers on AI capex ROIC confidence. Cleaner positioning continues to get the bulk of the attention following outsized July unwind. Memory supply crunch also back in the headlines today. Optical names up big on report Trump administration drafting ban on Chinese data center components. Bessent says SoH deal near: Big downside reversal in oil this morning and WTI crude now off ~10% already this week. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on CNBC US could reach a deal with Iran as soon as today or tomorrow to open SoH. Secretary of State Rubio also said progress has been made. However, Iran has repeatedly said it is only in talks with Oman and any deal would involve it gaining more leverage over transit. Big Caterpillar beat: Caterpillar one of the high-profile earnings standouts from this morning's calendar. Big Q2 beat and raised FY sales guidance. Takeaways positive on better sales and margins across all segments, order acceleration, backlog>$70B, construction dealer inventory build, improving machine demand, data center leverage, pricing, strong FCF. Palantir up over 20% following earnings: Palantir reported Q2 revenue 7%+ above consensus and raised FY revenue guidance by 6.5%. Takeaways upbeat with focus on demand for AI solutions driving US Commercial growth reacceleration to 149% Y/Y, while Government growth accelerated to 90%. Also highlighted record TCV bookings and rising NRR. Some of the more cautious commentary revolved around small customer base and slow customer count growth. McDonald's talks challenging consumer environment: McDonald's higher as largely in-line Q2 comp performance was mentioned as better than feared. On its call, company flagged challenging consumer environment that saw QSR industry traffic in several of its largest markets continue to be flat to negative. Added US comps slightly negative in July. Highlighted importance of value proposition but also blamed some of its issues on execution. More on extent of momentum unwind, deleveraging: Latest cross-asset note from Nomura (Charlie McElligott) put some color behind last month's momentum unwind. Noted "AI Enablers/Bottlenecks vs Hyperscalers" market-neutral trade has moved -20.4% (with DRAM vs Mag10 specifically at -33.2%) since late June. Citadel Securities (Scott Rubner) pointed out leveraged ETF assets have declined $60B+ from their June peak with Semi leveraged ETF assets down nearly 55%. JOLTS job openings light: JOLTS job openings fell by 178K to 7,359K in June from a downwardly revised 7,537K reading in May. Print was a bit below consensus while quits and layoff rates were unchanged at 2.0% and 1.1%, respectively, and hiring rate improved 0.1pp. Lower rate backdrop today more about oil (and NFP on Friday, expected +82.5K, more important) though market seen as even more sensitive to data given reaction function uncertainty) Walmart and Nike catch downgrades: Walmart and Nike two notable consumer names on the defensive today. Walmart downgraded to perform from outperform at Oppenheimer on pharmacy headwinds, peak valuation and elevated consensus expectations. Nike downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan on lingering financial impact of company's WinNow turnaround strategy. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Aug-2026 10:23	June JOLTS job openings slightly below consensus; quit and layoff rates unchanged: June JOLTS job openings came in at 7359K vs consensus 7400K and May's revised 7537K (was 7594K); job opening rate down to 4.4% from 4.5%; both hires and separations were little changed at 5348K and 5351K respectively; hiring rate rose sightly m/m to 3.4% form 3.3%, while separation rate also rose to 3.4% from 3.3%. Quit rate was unchanged m/m at 2.0%, while layoff/discharge rate also unchanged m/m, remaining at 1.1%. Report kicks off a busy week in employment data including July's ADP Employment report on Wednesday, expected to show 75K rise after June's 98K increase; jobless claims out Thursday and are expected to remain subdued, pointing to limited layoffs despite tepid hiring. Big focus will be on Friday's July Nonfarm Payrolls report; Street looking for a monthly increase of ~100K following June's 57K rise; unemployment rate seen steady at 4.2%. Elsewhere this morning, June factory orders down 0.3% m/m vs consensus for a 0.2% rise and May's 1.1% decline; marks second straight negative monthly reading after April notable 5.3% gain (largest since May-25). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Aug-2026 07:18	Tuesday morning check-in: Diplomatic hopes dialed back: No follow-through on recent hopes for some diplomatic traction in Middle East and rhetoric from both sides remains elevated. SoH still the big sticking point. While US continues to insist no tolls should be levied, multiple headlines in recent days have highlighted talks between Iran and Oman focused on a deal that would give Tehran some of its widely sought leverage over transit. Big beat and raise from Palantir: Palantir reported Q2 revenue 7%+ above consensus and raised FY revenue guidance by 6.5%. Takeaways upbeat with focus on demand for AI solutions driving US Commercial growth reacceleration to 149% Y/Y, while Government growth accelerated to 90%. Also highlighted record TCV bookings and rising NRR. Some of the more cautious commentary revolved around small customer base and slow customer count growth. Memory supply crunch: Memory price surge triggered by AI boom remains a key area of focus in tech given it feeds into momentum trade and input cost pressure narrative. Nikkei reported leading PC makers such as HP, ASUS and Acer have started using CXMT DRAM amid shortages. Also pointed out CXMT pricing not cheaper than Samsung or other leading suppliers. DigiTimes reported DRAM/HBM capacity sold out through 2027. US economy all about AI: AI the big tailwind for the US economy right now via infrastructure buildout and stock market rally. Report in the financial press cited one estimate that combined, those factors likely responsible for roughly one-third of US's recent economic growth. However, also discussed concerns that if AI boom fizzled, it would represent a significant macro vulnerability. Reaction function uncertainty: Still a lot of discussion about the Fed following July FOMC meeting. While credibility concerns have been flagged, bulk of the focus has revolved around reaction function uncertainty. Goldman Sachs recently noted that if Fed provides less information about its reaction function, it could extend monetary policy lags and inject unnecessary volatility into financial conditions and the real economy. Cleaner positioning following retail shift: More focus on cleaner positioning following big momentum unwind. In its latest update, Citadel Securities (Scott Rubner) noted material change in retail behavior in July as that cohort increasingly shifted from buying weakness to reducing exposure. Pointed out final week of July marked largest week of retail equity selling since 2022 (sold into big Thursday bounce). Selling was most pronounced in technology. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Aug-2026 06:06	US-Iran conflict again in limbo as Trump saying he wants to give "every last chance": After weekend hopes for a possible US-Iran deal were dashed by denials from both sides, diplomatic prospects for an end to the conflict remain extremely unclear. Speaking to reporters yesterday in the Oval Office, Trump said he wanted to give Tehran "every last chance before decapitation" (Reuters, Bloomberg). Status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key sticking point. Trump insisted again yesterday there should be no tolls for ships transiting (though added if anyone was going to charge, it should be the US, ABC News). Yet recent reports (see NY Times) have centered around Iran-Oman discussions about joint oversight involving shippers paying service fees to offset environmental impacts. While Trump implied yesterday he was hoping for a deal as soon as today, unclear when or if the administration may return to kinetic action to try to force an agreement. Meanwhile, the SoH remains largely locked up; a tanker overnight reported being struck by an unknown projectile (AP). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 15:10	StreetAccount Event Preview: Q3 Treasury refunding Treasury scheduled to announce its latest refunding details Wednesday at 8:30am Eastern time. Follows Monday's Q3 financing update, which notes Treasury expects to borrow $739B in Q4, up from May's estimate of $671B (primarily due to lower projected cash flows). Analyst previews broadly agree there will once again be no change to current auction levels ($58B in 3Y notes, $42B in 10Y notes, and $25B in 30Y bonds). This would be the tenth consecutive quarter with no change to these levels. Attention will once again focus tightly on the guidance that Treasury intends to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels "at least for the next several quarters." But previews note that this guidance has appeared in one form or another since Q1'24 and that the potential for increased issuance is growing. Expectations are that these increases will be well telegraphed, may not begin until some time in H1'27, may be concentrated in tenors shorter than the 10Y, and could be implemented gradually. Morgan Stanley sees the Q3 statement changed to guiding for a hold "for the upcoming quarters." However, several previews suggested Treasury could hold off on any significant guidance change, trying not to spook the market after its recent selloff (recall the 30Y yield has recently touched highs last seen in 2007). There will also be attention for any indication of rising risks surrounding T-Bill absorption given the increased reliance on these as a funding source in recent years. But overall, analysts feel Treasury market functioning has been healthy and demand has remained resilient. Given this backdrop, the refunding is not likely a significant market-moving event. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 15:01	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Iran reaffirms no talks with US are planned despite Trump's claim negotiations set to begin today (Reuters) US officials confirm there are no new negotiations with Iran planned (CBS News) Trump calls Iranian leadership duplicitous, says SoH completely controlled by the US (Truth Social) Senior Israeli official says Israel it "will not retreat" from its current position in Gaza (CBS) Corporate: Investors, analysts questioning need for AstraZeneca to make a transformative acquisition of Bristol Myers Squibb (Reuters) Visa acquiring fraud detection startup BioCatch for $2.4B cash amid rise in AI-powered scams (CNBC) FAA certifies Boeing's 737 Max 7, the smallest model in that aircraft family, after a nearly a decade of delays (CNBC) Amazon's market cap tops $3T for first time (Reuters) Economy: US manufacturing activity expanded in July at the fastest pace in more than four years (Bloomberg) June construction spending in the US down 0.1% m/m, missing expectations for a rise (link) JPMorgan says it will deploy over $750B into US housing through 2035 to increase supply and US homeownership (Reuters) US state-level restrictions are increasingly driving Chinese buyers aways from US housing (Nikkei) Energy: Surge in dark tanker transits through Red Sea indicates Saudis are still moving oil despite Houthi threat (Oilprice.com) Trump again demands US oil majors lower retail gasoline prices for US consumers (Reuters) Saudi oil exports declined to 4.19M bpd in July, down 460K bpd from June (Bloomberg) Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly total of the war (Bloomberg) Washington: Blanche's AG nomination is back on course after he formally rescinded Trump payout fund (Washington Post) White House to meet with AI companies Tuesday to discuss finalized framework for evaluating frontier models (CNBC) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, AZN, BA, BMY, JPM, V...(more)	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 14:13	Fed's latest lender survey finds unchanged standards, mixed demand for C&I loans: Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for July found basically unchanged standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Demand was stronger from large- and middle-market firms but little changed from smaller firms. Report saw a modest increase in inquiries from borrowers about terms for new credit lines or increases in existing lines. Domestic commercial real estate (CRE) lenders generally saw easing standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential and multifamily properties; demand was largely unchanged for these loans. A moderate net share of banks reported weaker demand for construction and land development (CLD) loans. Banks reported leaving standards basically unchanged for most types of residential mortgage loans except for jumbo mortgages, with weaker demand across residential real estate (RRE) loans. A moderate net share of banks reported weaker demand for auto loans while demand for credit card and other consumer loans remained basically unchanged. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 11:46	Monday midday check-in: Multiple tailwinds: A few pockets of support for US equities. Latest de-escalation hopes surrounding US-Iran conflict have pressured oil. Lower oil weighing on rates, while also some focus on Bessent's call for FIMA Repo Facility upsizing. Highest ISM manufacturing print in four years supportive for solid macro narrative. Seemingly biggest bullish talking point continues to revolve around earnings, which has been a key area of focus in latest strategist commentary. Oil pullback holds despite Iran denial of talks: Oil down over 5% despite Iran's denial that it is in negotiations with the US or that any talks have been scheduled. Denial followed Trump's claim over the weekend deal on SoH and denuclearization close. Headlines this morning noted US made a concession to Iran regarding closure of southern shipping route in SoH, though Iran still rejected. Talks between Iran and Oman focused on new third route controlled by Tehran. Good day for the hyperscalers: Hyperscalers among best performers today. Big development last week revolved around the favorable AI capex ROIC signaling from Microsoft and Amazon. Latter provided some well-received details on its call and noted that as revenue growth outpaces incremental capex growth, "resulting revenue, FCF and ROIC is very compelling". Both Meta and Oracle, which have faced heavier capex ROIC scrutiny, also faring well. Broadening out bright spots: Broadening out trade lagging a bit today but still helped by oil/rates. Retail seeing fairly broad-based strength with apparel and dept. stores leading the move. Homebuilders and building materials beating the tape. Travel & leisure another bright spot with airlines best performers. Machinery and multis among best performers in the industrials sector. R2K outperforming S&P 500. ISM manufacturing hits four-year high: ISM manufacturing increased to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, ahead of 53.9 consensus and highest since May 2022. New orders (strong leading indicator of both capex and S&P 500 earnings growth) ticked up to 56.7 from 56.0. Employment swung back into expansion, improving to 52.8 from 49.7. Prices paid little changed (and still elevated) at 71.1. Percentage of positive respondent commentary improved 4pp to 38%. Buy the dip: Some buy-the-dip chatter emanating from recent flow updates. BofA's Flow Show report, which cites EPFR Global data, noted global equities attracted nearly $64B in week-ended 29-Jul, with $30.4B going to US equities, the most in six weeks. Goldman Sachs noted that in its Prime Book, US equities saw largest net buying last week since November 2020 (+3.9 SDs 1-year). Employment report caps off big macro week: July employment report out on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expected to increase 82.5K in July following a 57K gain in June. Early previews have discussed depressed claims, softer (but still solid) ADP weekly private payrolls trend, World Cup hiring, below-consensus July NFP prints in recent years. Unemployment rate expected unchanged at 4.2% though multiple firms highlighted upside risk. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 10:17	July ISM Manufacturing highest since May-22; employment higher, prices index lower: July ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.6 vs consensus 54.0 and June's 53.3; index now highest since May-22 after expanding for seventh consecutive month; new orders rose m/m to 56.7 from 56.0, expanding for seventh straight month; production jumped to 58.5 from 52.2, highest since Nov-21. Employment rose to 52.8 from 49.7, putting the index in expansion territory for first time in 33 months; prices index fell to 71.1 from 73.0, though still in expansion territory. Respondent demand commentary was constructive and continued to highlight strong demand from AI infrastructure, semis, data centers, and defense; however, companies also flagged renewed geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and shipping disruptions as drivers of higher freight, energy, and sourcing costs. Elsewhere, final July S&P PMI Manufacturing came in at 53.9 vs consensus 54.2, unchanged from June; new order growth eased for the third consecutive month, while production volumes rose at weakest pace since March; cost pressures remained elevated on higher energy prices and tariffs, though inflation eased modestly. Finally, June construction spending fell 0.1% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% rise and May's essentially flat reading. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 07:30	Monday morning check-in: Escalate to de-escalate: Trump said this weekend he canceled plans for strikes after lobbying from Gulf countries and Iran. Hinted a deal may be near and said talks would take place on Monday. However, Iran said this morning no talks under way with US and it has no plans for any meetings (Reuters). Iran did say over the weekend it was nearing an agreement with Oman regarding a new route through SoH. Strong earnings highlight strategist commentary: Strong Q2 earnings the big theme in recent sell-side strategist commentary. Deutsche Bank highlighted record beat rate (87%), strong aggregate beat level (7%), sales growth at a 25-year high and margins rising to a new record. Goldman Sachs noted 64% of S&P 500 names have beaten consensus by at least 1SD, one of highest levels on record. Added median S&P 500 company on pace for 12% earnings growth, above 9% consensus. Earnings estimates going up: Deutsche Bank noted consensus has continued to take forward earnings in 2H26 and 2027 higher in contrast to typical cuts. Goldman Sachs noted bottom-up consensus for S&P 500 2027 EPS has been lifted by 1%, with positive revisions in most sectors and positive revision breadth across S&P 500. Jefferies noted while acceleration in 2FY EPS revision ratio for the major indexes has been unbelievably strong, trend has been accelerating. Open-weight models continue to close the gap: Alibaba released new 2.4T parameter flagship AI model, Qwen3.8-Max. Company claimed performance in line with Anthropic and said model ranks higher on several benchmarks than Kimi K3 from Moonshot. Weights to be released for public download next week. Late last week, DeepSeek released its new model, V4 Flash. Both offerings have further highlighted narrowing performance gap with frontier models and cost advantages. Warsh floats fewer Fed meetings: Multiple outlets (NY Times, link) reported late Friday that new Fed Chair Warsh floated idea of reducing number of FOMC meetings from eight to six per year. Fits with Warsh's broader belief that providing less information will force market to assess state of economy on its own terms. However, this has received a lot of pushback given the potential heightened volatility surrounding Fed reaction function uncertainty. Musalem keeps focus on Fed credibility: Fed credibility concerns one of the big takeaways from the July FOMC meeting press conference. St. Louis Fed President Musalem told the FT the selloff in longer-dated Treasuries was a signal Fed must earn its "credibility" on fighting inflation by backing up its tough talk on returning to 2% target with rate hikes. Argued Fed should act sooner rather than later to avoid larger actions that could be disruptive. Bessent wants to minimize impact of yen intervention on Treasuries: US and Japan confirmed joint intervention late last week to support yen. Thursday's intervention estimated at ~$60B vs the ~$25B flagged during last intervention in April/May. Some focus on seeming US push to limit impact of intervention on Treasuries (Reuters, Bloomberg). Bessent confirmed FIMA Repo Facility (avoids outright UST selling) was used on Friday and argued it should be upsized in coming months. AstraZeneca and Bristol Meyers in merger talks (Street skeptical): Big M&A in the headlines over the weekend as FT reported AstraZeneca in talks to combine with Bristol Myers in a ~$400B deal. Early sell-side takeaways highlighted skepticism about a deal. Flagged significant therapeutic overlap that would invite regulatory scrutiny. Also noted political/geopolitical headwinds. Deal seen as risky for AstraZeneca given revenue and LOE challenges at Bristol Meyers. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Aug-2026 06:17	Trump calls off threatened Iran attacks to make room for diplomacy, again: Reports Friday said Trump was considering a widespread bombing campaign against Iran, focused on energy and infrastructure targets (CBS News). But on Saturday night, Trump said he had been asked by both Iran and US regional allies to hold off, adding that agreement on the parameters of a deal had been reached (Truth Social, Axios). Trump told reporters Sunday night that negotiations would begin on Monday afternoon (Reuters). However, it remains unclear what US-Iran negotiations will take place, if any. Iran's foreign ministry said Tehran remains in talks with Oman about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, but said it is not currently holding talks with the US (Al Arabiya). Much commentary this weekend about Trump's frequent escalate-to-deescalate tactics (AP), but also discussion about how US has limited options to pursue an acceptable deal with Iran that could obtain an open SoH and achieve US nuclear objectives (Politico). This comes as a rivalry is developing in the Tehran government between those who favor negotiation and those pushing for continued military resistance (AP). The market reaction has so far been fairly typical, with oil pulling back and Treasury yields coming down, though the slides for both are limited. Equities are higher, but recall investors have seen this pattern many times before (AP) and have begun to view the conflict as an ongoing, chronic condition, expecting neither a quick resolution nor a significant step-up in kinetic action. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Jul-2026 12:28	Bearish talking points for week-ended 31-Jul: Fed/Warsh credibility concerns as long-end sold off during press conference with 30-year yields through 5.20% and highest since 2007. Takeaways focused on comments about market already doing Fed's work, gap between heightened commitment to return inflation to target and policy inaction, potential shift away from core PCE to alternative measures (and task force timing issues) and broader reaction function uncertainty. Fundamental areas of concern surrounding AI took some additional attention from the technical excuses surrounding momentum unwind. This week's scrutiny revolved around circular financing, potential China competitive threat in DUV and hyperscaler FCF deterioration. Open-weight proliferation, hyperscaler capex sustainability, ROI uncertainty, frontier model economics, and credit market dynamics some other high-profile areas of scrutiny. Meta and Apple notable big tech earnings laggards this week. Meta Q3 guidance light with takeaways largely focused on concerns about payoff from big AI investments (raised capex guide again), particularly with comments about internal compute focus. Apple Sep Q guidance missed on supply constraints and input cost pressures. Bar also high with stock a big July outperformer on defensive rotation amid momentum unwind. Only brief pause in kinetic hostilities in the Middle East. Despite lower oil, global energy supply concerns ramped up on report Houthis want to impose fees on most traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint. In addition, strike on Egyptian port put Suez Canal risk into play. Iran insistence on SoH control remained key sticking point in this week's headlines surrounding diplomacy efforts. Bond yield backup not just about Warsh. Other factors that received discussion included corporate supply/hyperscaler capex (Goldman Sachs estimated $489B of AI-related supply already this year vs $322B in 2025), growth (AI boom, solid labor, resilient consumer), fiscal (recent focus on $37.5B war cost), and foreign (BoJ under pressure to pull tightening forward and Japan intervened to support yen). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Jul-2026 12:28	Bullish talking points for week-ended 31-Jul: Hyperscaler results dampened AI capex ROI concerns (mostly). Microsoft takeaways focused on better Azure growth (+43%) and guidance (+45%) despite continued capacity constraints, along with ~10M ramp in Copilot paid seats to 30M+. Amazon takeaways focused on better AWS growth (+37%), AWS margin expansion and backlog surge, and $25B+ ARR in AI and chips businesses. Big momentum bounce Thursday that seemed supportive of pickup in talk unwind largely exhausted. Fit with news that Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that suffered heavy losses from the AI trade selloff (~4x leverage), had exited all public investments (Citadel bought). JPMorgan Positioning Intelligence noted three-day reduction in gross to start the week was third-largest since 2020. Consumer resilience theme continued to find support from corporates. Visa noted consumer spend environment remains strong and highlighted broad-based strength across credit, debit, discretionary and non-discretionary categories. Added not seeing weakness among lower-spend consumers (more K-shape concern pushback). Mastercard made similar remarks and said its base case is for continued healthy spending in 2H. Rotation>Risk Off as momentum unwind persisted through middle of week. Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed benchmark for six straight sessions through Wednesday. Broadening out trade had a lot of moving pieces but a fairly consistent fundamental narrative underpinned by earnings. Morgan Stanley noted at start of the week earnings growth had accelerated to 17% for median stock. Good earnings metrics, good earnings themes: Just over 60% of S&P 500 has now reported for Q2. Even when excluding Google (Anthropic boost), blended earnings growth rate is over 35%, with earnings surprising to the upside by ~18% in aggregate. AI compute/capex boom, pricing power (revenue growth rate nearly 14%), productivity/cost-control measures, industrial broadening, consumer resilience some of the other high-profile themes. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Jul-2026 10:14	UMich consumer sentiment rises to highest since February: Final July University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 55.2 vs consensus 54.4, which was also the preliminary reading; sentiment now highest since February. Current Economic Condition Index fell to 54.8 from July prelim 54.9, while Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 55.4 from July prelim 54.0. Year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged from July prelim of 4.2%, though still down from June's final 4.6%; long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3%. Report noted consumers remain focused on personal finance issues like purchasing power, while political/military developments remain more in the background. Elsewhere, July Chicago PMI came in at 57.6 vs consensus 56.0 and June's 56.7; increase was driven by stronger New Orders, largely offset by weaker Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs, Employment and Production. Employment held in contraction territory for fifth consecutive month and is now lowest since March; Prices Paid were essentially unchanged with respondents continuing to cite geopolitics and energy as pricing pressures, though some reported improving price stability. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Jul-2026 10:11	Hammack, Logan, Kashkari say inflation concerns behind their FOMC dissents: Regional Fed Presidents Hammack (Cleveland), Logan (Dallas), and Kashkari (Minneapolis) today released statements explaining their dissents favoring a 25 bp hike at Wednesday's FOMC meeting (which saw the committee vote 9-3 to hold rates steady). Concern about inflation remaining persistently above the Fed's 2% target was the common theme. Hammack said inflation has been too high for too long, adding it is a more pressing problem than employment and that she is not confident it will return to target on its own. Said pressures coming from the demand side of the economy, and a hike could help reduce these. Logan said even accounting for productivity gains and temporary supply shocks, inflation is trending toward the mid-2s with risks to the upside. She argued inflation will likely continue to trend above target until there is an unanticipated shock, which cannot be counted upon. Kashkari said while theory suggests policymakers look through supply shocks, monetary policy should also address a series of successive shocks that might lead to entrenched higher inflation. Added a potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting until bolder actions are necessary. Recall despite some dovish-leaning statements by Chair Warsh in his post-meeting press conference, this week's FOMC meeting seemed to solidify expectations for one hike for the remainder of 2026, in September (FedWatch odds now at 67%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
31-Jul-2026 07:50	Friday morning check-in: Amazon results highlighted by 37% AWS growth: Amazon a big gainer following Q2 results. Takeaways focused on better AWS growth acceleration to 37% (fastest in 18 Qs), margins expanding ~650 bp to ~39% and backlog up ~150% y/y to nearly $500B. In addition, both AI and chips businesses now running at $25B+ ARR with triple-digit growth. Capex guidance raise and negative FCF overshadowed by upbeat AI capex ROI sentiment (bolstered by unit economics company highlighted). Apple guidance softer on supply constraints, input cost pressures: Apple Jun Q mostly better though some scrutiny surrounding Services revenue deceleration/miss (FX headwinds and tougher comps cited). iPhone and Mac beat. Bulk of the focus was on softer fiscal Q4 guidance. Revenue expected +9-11% vs consensus around +12%. Company flagged materially higher supply constraints across iPhone, Mac and iPad. Also some discussion about high bar with stock a big outperformer during momentum unwind. South Korea remains ground zero for momentum: Momentum bounce in focus again today with KOSPI up ~18% overnight after losing 17% over prior three sessions. SK Hynix rallied 30% limit and Samsung Electronics surged 27%. More talk about deleveraging being largely done, along with support for compute/capex demand narrative from hyperscaler earnings. JPMorgan noted record foreign buying. Also some focus on government support for strategic AI investments. Momentum and breadth diverged during Thursday rally: Thursday's big momentum bounce came at the expense of the broadening out trade. BTIG noted Thursday marked worst breadth (107 net decliners) on record for a day when SPX gained 1.5%. Added also marked first day ever that SPX gained 1.5% or more and equal-weight S&P 500 ended down. Consumer and healthcare stocks, some of the higher-profile broadening out trade winners, among notable laggards Thursday. Anthropic latest models to escape, frontier pricing coming down: Anthropic disclosed some of its AI models hacked into systems of three companies. Follows recent disclosure from OpenAI two of its AI models inadvertently escaped and hacked. Plays into cybersecurity, model oversight and regulatory concerns. Also some focus on OpenAI price cuts announced on Thursday. Plays into concerns about frontier model economics and open-weight competition but also fits with expectations lower costs will boost adoption. Seasonally sluggish August but buybacks should be ramping back up: Friday marks month-end and according to JPMorgan, market entering a period of seasonal weakness with August returns flat and September worst month of the year. However, Goldman Sachs did point out that buybacks should start ramping back up. While only ~31% of S&P 500 corporates in their open window, that should jump to ~53% next week and ~90% by middle of August. High-profile July data on tap for next week: Week of 3-Aug (which is also another peak earnings season week) features a high-profile set of data for July, including ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM services on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. In terms of the latter, Street currently looking for nonfarm payrolls up ~82.5K following a 57K increase in June. Unemployment rate expected to tick up 0.1pp to 4.3%. BoJ unchanged, reaffirms intent to hike amid inflation risks: No surprise as BoJ left policy unchanged, though some hawkish spin. Reaffirmed intent to continue raising interest rates with underlying inflation approaching 2% and risk of overshooting target. Economists don't expect BoJ to tighten again until December meeting, though market pricing in ~80% probability of an October move. Notion of BoJ behind the curve in focus Thursday with suspected yen intervention. China PMIs back in contraction: China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted for first time since February. NBS cited base effects and seasonality while equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing outperformed amid AI-related demand. Non-manufacturing PMI fell to lowest since late 2022 amid slump in construction with services also weaker. Recent Politburo headlines highlighted continued aversion to major stimulus. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jul-2026 15:08	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia this week from Iraqi territory in coordination with Iraqi armed groups (Reuters) Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo are reportedly seeing rare progress (Reuters) Markets: Citadel buys entirety of hedge fund Situational Awareness' $16B equity holdings equity holdings after steep losses in AI stocks (Axios, FT) Yen sees largest intraday rise since April, raising intervention speculation (Bloomberg) Blue Owl flagship credit arm sees slowest fundraising pace in three years (FT) AI: Google to provide financial guarantees and chips for $15B Anthropic data center (link) OpenAI cutting prices for its lower- and mid-tier versions of the new GPT-5.6 model as customers increasingly focus on price (Axios) Oracle expands partnership with Google Cloud to bring Gemini tools to its business customers (Bloomberg) DeepSeek is developing a massive AI data center in Mongolia; seeks to add one gigawatt worth of compute (Bloomberg) Corporate: Yum Brands CEO says cyclospora outbreak linked to Taco Bell hit the chain's sales in July, though trend improving (CNBC) Qualcomm CEO says growing manufacturing costs are keeping smartphone market suppressed (Bloomberg) Ford CEO says Chinese automakers could enter US market in next five to ten years (Reuters) Amazon-owned Zoox clears final federal hurdle to launch paid robotaxi service (TechCrunch) Fiserv being pressured by Activist Jana to review entire portfolio and refresh board (Reuters) Energy: Strike on Port of Damietta in Egypt intended to show ability to further disrupt global shipping and energy supplies (NY Times) Russian government bans diesel exports until end of January 2027 (Moscow Times) Central banks: Wall Street analysts question credibility of the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh (Bloomberg) Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75%, Bailey says bank could adopt looser stance if conflict resolved (FT) Economy: US mortgage rates rise to 6.66%, highest level in a year (Relator.com) Washington: Trump considers temporarily withdrawing Blanche AG nomination to bypass opposition from GOP senators (Bloomberg) Musk reportedly planning a $100-120M political spending push for GOP ahead of midterm elections (NY Times) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, F, FISV, GOOGL, ORCL, OWL, QCOM, YUM, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
30-Jul-2026 11:29	Thursday midday check-in: AI trade bounce: Momentum a big outperformer with the AI trade working again. More desk chatter momentum unwind exhausted and CNBC's Faber reported Situational Awareness has exited all public investments. Plenty of support for the compute/capex demand narrative from latest batch of earnings reports (hyperscaler capex, compute capacity constraints, memory shortages, data center buildouts), though that dynamic not really new. Broadening out trade lags: Broadening out trade a notable laggard (RSP trailing SPX by ~200 bp) today with the momentum bounce. Consumer-facing pockets of the market seeing a fairly broad-based pullback. Bulk of transports also on the defensive. Healthcare, which has been a high-profile rotational beneficiary (HF buying), under pressure. BTIG recently noted 40-day rate-of-change in RSP vs. QQQ now nearly +15%, around highs of last 20 years. Data does not seem to matter today: Busier day on the economic calendar seemingly a non-factor for markets today. Core PCE inflation a touch cooler on a sequential basis while in line at +3.3% y/y. Lot of discussion today about Warsh hints Fed could deemphasize this indicator. Claims remained depressed at just below 200K. Q2 GDP expanded a softer-than-expected 1.5%, though trade a drag and consumer and AI bright spots. Amazon and Apple tonight: Amazon and Apple report after the close. Amazon seemingly more important for the market given hyperscaler focus. AWS growth (expected to beat ~31% consensus), capex ROI, Trainium ramp and consumer health key areas of focus. When it comes to Apple, price increases, input cost pressure/margins, product launches (smart home push in the headlines as of late) and AI strategy/impact among the areas of interest. Yen intervention: Yen rallied more than 2.5% this morning on intervention speculation. Record intervention in April-May failed to stem broader yen weakening trend (weakest relative to dollar in 40 years), despite repeated threats to act again. Yen weakness a function of perception BoJ behind the curve. BoJ expected to hold policy steady at Friday's meeting. Economists expect next tightening in December though market now largely pricing in October move. Seasonally sluggish August: Friday marks month-end and according to JPMorgan, market entering a period of seasonal weakness with August returns flat and September worst month of the year. However, this is followed by Q4, the strongest Q of the year. Goldman Sachs noted that during the 13 midterm election years since 1974, S&P 500 has generated a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jul-2026 08:56	June core PCE cooler than expected, annualized in line; first read of Q2 GDP below consensus; jobless claims remain subdued: June core PCE increased 0.1% m/m vs consensus for 0.2% rise and May's unrevised 0.3% increase; annualized core up 3.3% vs consensus 3.3% and May's unrevised 3.4%; headline PCE fell 0.1% m/m vs consensus for 0.1% decline and May's unrevised 0.5% increase; annualized headline up 3.7% vs consensus 3.7% and May's 4.1%. June personal spending increased 0.3% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% rise and May's revised 0.85% increase (was +0.7%); personal income up 0.2% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% rise and May's unrevised 0.7% increase. Elsewhere, Q2 GDP (advance) of +1.5% vs consensus +2.1% and Q1's GDP of +2.1%; report noted a drag from lower government spending, though consumer spending increased; Q2 GDP Price Index of +6.2% vs consensus +4.0% and prior +3.6%; core PCE Price Index of +3.4% vs prior +4.4%. Finally, initial claims came in at 197K vs consensus 200K and prior week's upwardly revised 188K (was 187K); 4-week moving average was 202,750, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's; continuing claims came in at 1782K vs consensus 1800K and previous week's downwardly revised 1798K (was 1796K). Recall last week's initial claims were lowest since 1969, underscoring continued labor market resilience with layoffs remaining limited despite tepid hiring. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jul-2026 07:20	Thursday morning check-in: Microsoft boosted by better Azure growth, guidance: Microsoft delivered strong fiscal Q4 print. Takeaways highlighted AI traction/monetization. Azure growth of 43% y/y was ~300 bp better and guided to ~45% for Sep Q despite continued capacity constraints. Copilot paid seats exceeded 30M, up from 20M+ last Q. CY26 capex guidance came down to $175B from $190B on useful life change, while company only committed to growth in 2027, talked up capex flexibility and guided for positive FCF. Meta hit by capex ROI uncertainty surrounding AI initiatives: Meta guided Q3 revenue light, raised low end of FY capex guide and management commentary suggested further upward pressure in capex/opex going forward (internal compute focus). Takeaways positive on AI tailwind for engagement and ad monetization but noted ROI uncertainty (particularly as management remained largely qualitative) surrounding its barrage of AI forays (agents, API "business in a box"). Reaction function uncertainty putting upward pressure on longer-term yields: No surprise Fed left policy unchanged and Warsh refrained from reaction function color and forward guidance. Lot of focus on his comments about rise in real yields having done "quite a bit of work" and reflection of commitment to 2% inflation target and removal of forward guidance. However, also thoughts he is misreading market and credibility dented by gap between inflation talk and policy inaction. Moving pieces in Middle East headlines: US launched retaliatory strikes on Iran and report noted CENTCOM Commander preparing option for 10-14-day period of intense airstrikes to destroy Iran's missile capability. However, Pakistan said negotiations between US and Iran ongoing to restore stability, particularly in terms SoH. Another report noted transit across SoH has picked up in recent days despite the elevated levels of kinetic activity. Good reports from the restaurants: Starbucks and Chipotle Mexican Grill higher following earnings. Starbucks takeaways focused on better US comps driven by both traffic and ticket growth, with strategic initiatives/operational fixes and menu innovation tailwinds. Chipotle comps ahead and raised FY guide despite softening in Q3 from Cyclospora industry scare. Lower-income and younger guests showed most improvement in Q2 and wallet share gains highest since 2024. Momentum unwind fallout: Some sell-side trading desk talk in recent days about how momentum unwind may be largely exhausted, particularly given the extent of HF de-grossing. However, also some discussion in the press about the fallout. FT noted that Situational Awareness, a $20B HF founded by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner, has looked to raise fresh capital from investors after suffering heavy losses from the AI trade selloff. Samsung says memory shortages could worsen: Samsung Q2 headline metrics narrowly mixed and largely in line with preliminary update. Takeaways not surprisingly focused on semi segment, which posted a 250-fold increase in operating profit on continued tightness in DRAM, eSSD and HBM demand. Noted supply shortages could worsen in 2027 and linger into 2028. Also talked up long-term supply agreements from an improved visibility/dampened cyclicality perspective. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jul-2026 07:13	US conducts heavy wave of airstrikes after Trump threat to hit Iran hard: The US launched retaliatory strikes against Iran on Wednesday in response to the Tuesday attacks on US troops in Jordan, marking the first strikes since Trump paused bombing campaign on Friday (Axios). Followed Trump's threat Wednesday that the US would hit Iran very hard following surprise attack (CNBC). Press focus also on a 10-14 day plan offered by US CENTCOM Commander Cooper, who has prepared plan that could hit Iran with intensive airstrikes to cripple Iran's missile capabilities despite some fearing (including chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Caine) US running low on air defense ammunitions (link). Despite latest ramp in hostilities, diplomatic efforts continue in the background. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said negotiations between US, Iran are ongoing to restore stability (Bloomberg), while latest flareup in line with long-running escalate-to-deescalate strategy. However, Semafor highlighted fears that the war could switch between a hot and cold war indefinitely, particularly as more countries ensnared in conflict. This week, the US and Saudi Arabia took part in strikes against Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq, while Egypt said Thursday that a drone likely caused fires on two ships in Egyptian port of Damietta (NY Times). No country has claimed responsibility, though Trump implied Iran was to blame. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jul-2026 06:50	StreetAccount Event Recap: July FOMC meeting The Fed kept rates at the 3.50-3.75% target at its July meeting. The hold was in line with consensus though uncertainty ahead of the meeting was unusually high given the apparent split in the committee. There was almost no change to the statement, though recall it had been radically reworked and shortened for the June meeting. There were three dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) in favor of a 25 bp hike at this week's meeting, somewhat higher than expected. Analysts had seen Hammack and Logan dissents as very likely with a third as possible. Note that these three members had dissented in April, though in disagreement about language in the statement. That said, several analyst recaps noted a hike at this meeting might have been difficult to justify given recent cooler inflation data. Chair Warsh's press conference was the main event. He again stressed that the committee remains resolute in delivering price stability, but was careful in his answers to provide no forward guidance (or even, as JP Morgan suggested, much in the way of a coherent macro view). But several dovish-leaning statements seemed to catch analysts' attention. He noted markets have already done "quite a bit" of tightening work without the Fed moving. Warsh suggested the lack of forward guidance was a good thing as it meant the market was responding directly to incoming data ("market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee"). And while he recommitted to the Fed's 2% inflation target, he also said "my lens is broader" than core PCE in evaluating inflation trends. In the end, post-meeting market pricing solidified market expectations for a 25 bp hike in September (a ~63% chance seen, per FedWatch) but then rates holding through year's end; December Fed funds futures pricing dropped ~8 bp to include just ~31 bp in hikes. However, there remains a broad spectrum of analyst opinion on the Fed's road ahead: BofA sees hikes at each of the Fed's next three meetings, Goldman Sachs expects a hold through December, and Citi still forecasts 75 bp in cuts amid rising unemployment. Analysts suggested the 19-Aug release of the July meeting minutes could be meaningful in illustrating the committee's debates around key policy questions. Warsh was equivocal about his August speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, musing it could be a big-picture approach or a setup for the Fed's action through year-end. Warsh also committed to continuing press conferences each meeting at least through the end of the year. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jul-2026 15:05	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Trump warns US will be hitting Iran "hard" after surprise missile attack against US bases in Middle East (CNBC) Explosion reported at LNG terminal at Egypt's Damietta port, some sources say possible drone strike (ISS, Jerusalem Post) Houthis consider imposing transit fees on Red Sea shipping with guidance from Iran (Reuters) Central banks: Fed keeps rates steady, though Hammack, Logan and Kashkari dissent in favor of a hike (CNBC) BoC sees economy adjusting to shocks, though recovery and inflation concerns persist (Bloomberg) Corporate: Hims & Hers sued by US FTC for sharing private data, deceptive billing/cancellation practices (Reuters) PPG, Sherwin-Williams find growth in booming data center market (Bloomberg) Grant Thornton to acquire CBIZ for $5B in largest accounting sector takeover since formation of Big Four (FT) DoorDash launches in-house drone delivery program after receiving FAA certification (Reuters) Ferrari hits 2026 sales target for its polarizing Luce electric vehicle within two months of launch (FT) Energy: US crude oil inventories down 7.2M barrels during the week ending 24-Jul (Oilprice.com) Trade/tariffs: Companies reconsider moving supply chains back to China as US tariff rates stabilize (NY Times) AI: Rising AI-linked CDS costs signal investor anxiety, could force companies to throttle capex (Bloomberg) Markets: South Korea plans new curbs on leveraged ETFs to stabilize volatile stock markets (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CBIZ, DASH, HIMS, PPG, SHW	show story hide story
29-Jul-2026 14:19	Fed leaves rates unchanged; Hammack, Logan, Kashkari dissent: Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at July's FOMC meeting, as expected, though markets had priced a ~36% chance of a rate hike; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented, voting in favor of a 25 bp rate hike; Hammack and Logan were expected by many to dissent though Kashkari's comes as somewhat of a hawkish surprise. Regarding the statement, there were no meaningful changes; Fed reiterated inflation "remains elevated", "job gains have kept pace with workforce" and unemployment has "changed little". Sell-side previews had largely expected a hold, with debate centered on balancing inflation credibility against Warsh's preference to look through supply-driven price shocks; despite heightened uncertainty from renewed Iran hostilities during the Fed blackout period, some analysts argued a rate hike would have little impact on supply-driven inflation as expectations remain anchored; however, some have suggested an increasingly hawkish FOMC composition, as reflected in today's three dissents, could put greater pressure on Warsh at upcoming meetings. As expected, not much from Chair Warsh during the press conference; reiterated his commitment to 2% inflation target and noted if inflation stays high, rates could be part of the solution; praised the economy's "impressive" resilience despite multiple shocks, while downplaying labor market concerns, noting unemployment remains steady. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jul-2026 12:10	Wednesday midday check-in: Momentum selloff continues: Momentum under pressure again despite talk de-grossing/deleveraging largely exhausted. No specific catalyst today. Earnings have not helped to put the focus back on the favorable fundamental narrative and while technical dynamics have continued to receive a lot of blame, so have the cautious talking points surrounding capex sustainability/ROI, open-weight proliferation, China competition, circular financing. Equal-weight S&P 500 holding up better: Equal-weight S&P lower but still holding up better with energy, consumer staples and healthcare all higher. Latter two sectors have been involved in the broadening out trade, though some cyclical participants have lagged (higher oil, rates). Some thoughts equal-weight upside may be limited. BTIG noted 40-day rate-of-change in RSP vs. QQQ now nearly +15%, around highs of last 20 years. Oil up big as situation in Middle East deteriorates: Trump delivered an expletive-laden warning this morning of fresh strikes on Iran after Tehran's surprise attacks on US bases. Supply dynamics also in focus with report Houthis want to impose fees on most traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint. However, Chinese ships would be exempted. TS Lombard recently discussed how China key to oil market given potential for restocking push. Fed uncertainty overhang: Fed reaction function uncertainty continues to be flagged as an overhang on risk sentiment, though may be getting more traction today with the stock pullback, yield backup into the 14:00 decision. Reaction function uncertainty further complicated by some of the moving pieces surrounding the temporary inflation drivers (oil, tariffs) and task force waiting game. Microsoft and Meta after the close: Microsoft and Meta report after the close today. Key area of focus will not surprisingly revolve around whether elevated AI capex is driving sufficient revenue growth. Some uncertainty about whether Microsoft will provide more color on FY27 capex. Meta widely expected to raise its capex guide. Google sold off last week on higher capex guide despite the +82% Google Cloud growth. Mixed earnings takeaways, good earnings stats: Massive volume of earnings for today with mixed takeaways. Big themes continue to revolve around AI compute/capex boom, consumer resilience, pricing power, input cost pressures and a fairly high bar (particularly for AI). Just over 40% of S&P 500 has now reported. Earnings beat rate remains elevated at just under 87%. Revenue beat rate also strong at 76% (and revenue growth rate +13.2%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jul-2026 09:06	Next batch of Mag 7 results comes after cautious start to big tech earnings season: Next round of Big Tech earnings include Wednesday's Meta, Microsoft results, followed by Thursday's Apple and Amazon reports. Some caution into results that hyperscalers Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon may face similar pressure to Google, which sold off last week after it announced an increased capex forecast (CNBC). Focus on capex also comes as CDS for hyperscalers including Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have risen to record levels in recent days, driven by uncertainty and fears around AI spend (FT). Despite increasingly cautious market view around capex, Goldman Sachs recently noted ~$250B of hyperscaler capex to be financed with debt (or a third of 2026 total), rising to a 35% share next year even as overall AI capex level rises. However, results also come amid multiyear lows in valuations across several Big Tech names (excluding Apple), potentially offering lower bar into results. Apple, however, hit $5T market cap this week (overtaking Nvidia as largest company), has seen forward P/E rise to ~36x (surpassing the post-Covid peak) as company has been beneficiary of fears around AI spend. Sell-side previews for Microsoft looking at Azure growth, where company guided 39-40% y/y growth. Street looking at Meta commentary on compute deals, expect capex bump given higher memory prices. Amazon focus on how much Anthropic, OpenAI a tailwind to AWS, Trainium commentary. Apple focus on Services growth, component cost commentary. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT	show story hide story
29-Jul-2026 07:28	Wednesday morning check-in: SK Hynix misses: More momentum scrutiny after SK Hynix missed on Q2 operating profit (despite a 550%+ y/y increase). Takeaways flagged DRAM ASP miss, but pointed out this was largely due to mix/timing issues. Company expects stronger 2H and finalized 10 LTAs. Along with technicals, worries about capex ramp and peak pricing among the go-to overhangs with stock down ~45%/$550B since June. AI trade selloff may be winding down: Magnitude of the momentum unwind has triggered talk end may be near (Bloomberg). Goldman Sachs noted that following a 41% drawdown, its High Beta Momentum Pair has erased all YTD gains, just weeks after record 1H performance. Added overall book gross leverage has come down 15pts since end of May and momentum exposure for Fundamental L/S funds has come down to lowest level since late January. Middle East tensions ramp back up: Recent pause in kinetic activity in Middle East upended. Iran launched surprise attack on US bases, though Centcom said all missiles intercepted. US and Saudi Arabia struck "Iran-aligned terrorists" in Iraq in response. Iran reportedly rejected proposal from Oman to share control of the Strait. IRGC also said its forces struck three oil tankers in SoH after they ignored warnings. Market wants to ignore geopolitics: Limited equity market spillover from oil bounce. Escalate to de-escalate dynamics expected to persist but remain constrained at both ends. US seemingly has limited appetite for more aggressive scenarios that involve ground troops, while White House also sensitive to markets. At the same time, narrow diplomatic off-ramps difficult given Iran's insistence on SoH control. Hawkish hold expected from Fed: Sell-side previews highlighted expectations for a hawkish hold (featuring some dissents, potential upgrade of inflation risk language in statement and reiteration of resolve to get inflation back to 2%) from the Fed today. However, Fed funds pricing still pricing in a ~32% probability of a hike. Uncertainty the big theme going into the meeting, particularly when it comes to the central bank's reaction function. Visa talks up consumer: Visa posted 10% US payments volume growth in Jun Q, highest since pre-COVID 2019. Noted consumer spend environment remains strong and highlighted broad-based strength across credit, debit, discretionary and non-discretionary categories. Noted not seeing weakness among lower-spend consumers (there was also some K-shaped pushback from the banks earlier this month). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jul-2026 06:36	New surge in Mideast strikes after recent pause, diplomatic impacts unclear: After several days of relative calm and indications of some diplomatic activity, Iran overnight launched a missile strike on a US base in Jordan, though these projectiles were all intercepted (Axios, AP). Also said it launched attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. And in a joint operation, the US and Saudi Arabia launched joint strikes against Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq (Reuters, Bloomberg). Followed two days of drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities from these groups. US Central Command characterized Iran's actions as a "surprise attack" and cautioned that Iran's "terrorist proxies" must cease attacks or suffer further military response. That said, it does not yet appear that these strikes represent a return to broader hostilities. Recall the White House has said the pause in attacks was to give space for negotiations, though Trump told Axios Monday he was willing to restart military action soon if diplomacy did not progress quickly. Recent days have seen an uptick in headlines about negotiations around the SoH, though Iran rejected an Omani proposal for joint oversight of the strait as "unreasonable." But there has been no sign of movement toward direct US-Iran talks and no signal of movement toward compromise on the strait. Despite the flare-up, the market is taking the developments in stride. The pause in kinetic activity and headlines about diplomatic efforts had sparked a multi-day retreat in oil prices and Treasury yields, helping bolster the broadening-out trade. While that is partially reversing today, does not seem to be broad worry about a return to full-scale war. Recall market's attitude recently has been to view the conflict as a chronic condition with occasional flare-ups rather than an acute crisis. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Jul-2026 14:59	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: US-Iran mediators believe breakthrough for deal is nearing as Netanyahu holds talks with Trump at White House (Times of Israel) Iran officials deny reaching a ceasefire with the US, asserting they remain in a position of strength (NY Times) Ukraine strike on Iranian cargo ship risks direct confrontation between Kyiv and Tehran (NY Times) Yemen's Houthis claim to have again fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker (Times of Israel) China in contact with Yemen's Houthi to ensure safe passage through Red Sea (Reuters) AI: OpenAI and Anthropic push for US to review for models, build national evaluation framework (The Information) China has reportedly already begun mass producing its own immersion deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines (Reuters) Moonshot AI is seeking access to more of Nvidia's advanced Blackwell chips (The Information) Corporate: Visa planning to cut ~2,600 jobs, mostly in its tech and product operations, representing ~7% of its workforce (CNBC) PayPal earnings call signals company still open to Stripe's takeover bid though at higher price (TechCrunch) Gucci Q2 sales decline less than feared as US demand offsets weaker spending elsewhere (Reuters) Apple prepares major smart home expansion featuring new devices powered by Siri AI (Bloomberg) Palantir under scrutiny after study found no measurable NHS performance impact and reports said the NHS failed to disclose staff access to patient PII (FT) Shein reveals US FTC investigation ahead of Hong Kong IPO (CNBC) Fifa plans $20B commercial vehicle to lure external investors (FT) Energy: OPEC+ expects to pause oil-production quota hikes after a final hike in September (Bloomberg) Anti-government protests in Libya increasingly putting country's oil and gas supply at risk (Oilprice.com) US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest levels since 1983, and in desperate need of repairs (CNBC) Markets: Apple market valuation exceeds $5T as investors seek safety from semiconductor sell-off (FT) Nasdaq 100 in correction territory as investors grow skeptical of sustainability of AI spending (FT) Trade / Tariffs: Trump Administration to roll out bans on foreign imports of new models of robots and inverters, targeting China (Reuters) Economy: Economy-wide productivity gains may have more to do with better use of existing capital than AI (Axios) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, NVDA, PLTR, PYPL, V, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
28-Jul-2026 12:35	Tuesday midday check-in: AI under pressure: AI trade under fairly broad-based pressure with memory/storage, semis and servers among worst performers. Nothing incremental behind the move. Deleveraging, proliferation of open models, China competition in DUV and memory, circular financing and widening hyperscaler credit spreads among the recent areas of scrutiny. Rotation>Risk Off: Market holding up despite another big selloff in AI space. Lower oil, lower rates and earnings all supportive of broadening out trade. Staples a broad-based rotational beneficiary, along with healthcare. Retail, restaurants, builders autos, software, insurance, exchanges, paper & packaging, chemicals, telecom and media/streaming some of the other outperformers. Mag 7 also stronger. Oil under pressure on diplomacy chatter: Oil on the defensive again after falling 7.5% on Monday. Stability of the recent pause in kinetic activity has helped. Also some hints of traction on the diplomacy front, including a revival of the MOU signed last month (Times of Israel). Iran also reportedly presented with a plan, backed by the Gulf states, to manage SoH, including collecting voluntary toll (Reuters). Coke boosts staples: Consumer staples best performer on broadening out/rotation and earnings. Coca-Cola the earnings standout despite elevated expectations into the print. Organic growth of +6% beat by 240 bp on +4% volume and +2% price/mix. Takeaways positive on strong unit case growth, marketing initiatives and share gains in non-alcoholic ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage category. Consumer confidence slips: Consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July from upwardly revised 92.2 in June, below 92.3 consensus. Present situations index fell for a third straight month. Labor differential deteriorated 0.7pp to 3.8%. Report noted consumers' write-in responses highlighting oil and gas prices eased in frequency but remained elevated. Comments about food and grocery prices increased. Visa cutting jobs: Layoffs back in the headlines with Visa cutting 2,600 positions, or ~7% of its workforce. CEO cited transformational technology trends in the payments industry. Recent labor market headlines have been upbeat, including lowest claims since 1969 and report big companies have started to hire again. However, ADP private payrolls growth slowed for fifth straight week in latest report. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Jul-2026 10:17	July consumer confidence below consensus despite easing inflation worries: July consumer confidence came in at 90.8 vs consensus 92.3 and June's revised 92.2 (was 91.2); Present situations Index fell 3.6 points to 114.9, a third consecutive decline, while Expectations Index was unchanged at 74.7. Labor market differential deteriorated with 24.6% of consumers saying jobs were "plentiful," down from 25.5% in June, while 21.5% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down slightly from 21.7%. Write-in responses showed sentiment remained pessimistic, though concerns over prices, oil, and geopolitics eased, while mentions of food costs and labor market worries increased; 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated. Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over next six months, but expectations for labor market were slightly less negative. Elsewhere, July Richmond Fed Index came in at +5.0 vs consensus +6.0 and June's +4.0; shipments increased to +8 from +4 and employment to +2 from −1, while new orders index edged down to +5 from +8. Price pressures eased, with slower growth in both input costs and selling prices, while firms expect further moderation over the next year. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-Jul-2026 07:19	Tuesday morning check-in: Multiple momentum unwind drivers: Technical dynamics (including positioning) continue to get a lot of blame for weakness in the AI trade. Some of the more recent (and often intertwined) fundamental excuses have revolved around sustainability of elevated hyperscaler capex, corporate cost pushback, open-weight model proliferation, China competition (DUV and memory) and circular financing. Broadening out has helped cushion AI trade selloff: Broadening out trade has helped cushion market from AI selloff. Some help this week from lower oil and yields. However, also support from still elevated macro surprise momentum and earnings. Morgan Stanley cited the latter as the key driver of the broadening, noting growth has accelerated to 17% for the median stock this Q. China lithography concerns seen as overdone: One of the excuses for Monday's weakness in the AI trade was a report in The Information that China has begun mass-producing domestic DUV chipmaking tools. Triggered an 8.5% selloff in ASML. However, Street has pushed back, noting China DUV development story not new, production still negligible, commercial viability remains unproven and no threat yet to EUV. Big selloff in South Korea: South Korea remains ground zero for the momentum unwind (and related market structure scrutiny) as the Kospi fell nearly 11% overnight, its biggest one-day decline since early March and lowest level since April. Shares of SK Hynix fell nearly 15%. Samsung Electronics lost nearly 13.5%. SK Hynix and Samsung account for nearly half the Kospi. AI capex concerns in credit markets: Credit markets increasingly becoming a focal point for the scrutiny surrounding the AI capex boom. FT discussed how CDS spreads on Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia are hitting record highs. Flagged uncertainty over pace and cost of funding, along with ROI/monetization. Goldman Sachs estimated hyperscaler debt will represent 33% of FY26 capex. Fed uncertainty remains elevated: Reaction function uncertainty the big theme heading into Wednesday's FOMC decision. Street widely expecting a hawkish hold while market still pricing in a ~34% probability of a rate hike. Also pricing in more than 40 bp of tightening this year. Some thoughts that whether Fed holds or tightens, Warsh is going to have to address the reaction function issue to optimize effectiveness of Fed policy (link) Pause in kinetic hostilities puts focus on narrow diplomacy efforts: Trump said yesterday US and Iran are talking and there is a good chance of a deal. Press reports have largely focused on talks between Oman and Iran regarding a deal to reopen SoH shipping. Oman cautiously optimistic about a near-term agreement. However, Iranian insistence on SoH control/transit fees still a big sticking point. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 15:05	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Trump says he could return to expanded military operations if diplomatic efforts fail (Axios) Trump tells reporters US and Iran are talking, says "good chance that something could happen" (Reuters) Mediators reportedly making progress to bring the US and Iran back to serious negotiations (AP) Shipping traffic in Bab el-Mandeb strait slowest in months following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites (Reuters) Negotiations between Iran and Oman aimed at restarting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg) Middle East tensions persist as drone attacks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq reported (Reuters) AI: Nvidia CDS rates jump following reports of massive AI infrastructure financing deals (Bloomberg) ASML shares drop as Chinese firm begins mass production of rival chipmaking equipment (Bloomberg) Chinese AI firms like DeepSeek, Moonshot struggle to balance high development costs with low revenue (NY Times) Nvidia invests in former OpenAI chief scientist Sutskever's AI startup Safe Superintelligence, firm to receive access to Vera Rubin platform (Bloomberg) Nvidia, SpaceX, Microsoft launch AI safety initiative following cyberattack by rogue models (CNBC) Corporate: Peacock content to be integrated directly into YouTube Premium subscriptions starting in early 2027 (CNBC) Porsche to cut around one in five ⁠jobs (9K positions) by 2035 (CNBC) TPG in exclusive talks to buy Neutrality Data Centers in a deal potentially valued at $2-3B (Bloomberg) Cracker Barrel CEO departs following backlash over brand modernization efforts (Axios) Markets: Hedge funds bets on healthcare stocks hit five-year high amid enthusiasm for AI-powered drug discovery (Reuters) Jersey Mike's IPO reportedly 10X oversubscribed; shares expected to begin trading on NYSE on 30-Jul (Bloomberg) Central banks: Trump praises Fed Chair Warsh but says other board members are "very political" with possibly bad intentions (CNBC) Trade/tariffs: China claims US agreed to cap replacement tariffs on Chinese goods at 20% (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: ASML, CBRL, CMCSA, MSFT, NVDA, SPCX, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 15:03	Recent Street commentary offers a stack of divergent market signals: Ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, Soc Gen strategists noted S&P 500 has already derisked around 15% as forward P/E has fallen from 23.5x to 19.5x, suggesting some Fed hikes already priced in. Goldman Sachs also noted Nasdaq trading at 21.8x forward P/E, a 10% discount to 10Y average, lowest since early 2023. However, Goldman Sachs' trading desk recently noted nominal rates remain high, financial conditions have tightened via real rates, which are rising high enough to compete with equities and have turned into a valuation headwind. BofA strategists highlighted strong earnings trends so far, including 1.3x more above- than below-consensus EPS guides (better than July historical 1.0x average). However, while companies that beat on EPS or EPS+revenue have seen positive outperformance, performance more muted than historical averages. Also noted high bar to tech, with EPS+revenue beats met with 1.0 pp underperformance. Positioning and sentiment dynamics somewhat cautious. Goldman noted CTA longs in 49th percentile, though likely sellers in all scenarios over next week. Also noted its US Equity Sentiment Indicator has fallen from stretched levels to something more neutral, while Vanda Research noted retail net flows retreating near post-pandemic lows. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 12:09	Monday midday check-in: Broadening out vs AI selloff: Broadening out trade an outperformer with help from oil selloff and lower yields. Consumer-facing pockets among best performers. Software, healthcare, alts, media and A&D also standouts. However, regional banks, machinery and transports all lagging. Big story today has been selloff in AI trade following capex scrutiny last week, with circular financing concerns highlighted as an overhang. Energy a laggard on weaker oil. Positioning in semis still elevated: Semis under pressure for a second straight session. While headlines and earnings have underpinned the compute/capex narrative, elevated hyperscaler capex under scrutiny and earnings bar high. Circular financing concerns flagged today (even though not new), along with China competition (ASML, CXMT IPO). JPMorgan Positioning Intelligence also noted global Semis L/S is still at the 98^th percentile. Big oil selloff but still diplomacy doubts: Oil down over 6% today on recent pause in kinetic hostilities in the Middle East. This has put some renewed hope behind the escalate to de-escalate narrative. At the same time however, significant skepticism about a credible/sustainable diplomatic offramp. Neither side willing to back down on SoH control issue, which was initially expected to be one of the least contentious issues (particularly vs nuclear). Consumer resilience theme should get more support this week: Consumer-facing pockets of the market among best performers today with the broadening out trade underpinned by the oil selloff and lower yields. Depressed positioning may also be helping. Consumer resilience theme expected to be back in focus this week with Visa and Mastercard reporting. First week of earnings saw big banks talk up healthy consumer spending and improved delinquency trends. AI a tailwind for durable goods orders: Headline durable goods orders increased a less-than-expected 0.3% m/m in June following a 4% decline in May. Takeaways flagged downside surprise in aircraft orders. However, strength in new orders for computers and electronics fit with continued AI tailwind. Core capital goods orders increased a better-than-expected 0.9% m/m, while core capital goods shipments increased 1.9%, the most since 2021. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 08:55	Headline June durable goods orders miss, though core capital goods orders/shipments beat: Preliminary June durable goods orders increased 0.3% m/m vs consensus for a 2.8% increase and May's revised 4.0% decline (was -4.5%); durable goods orders (ex. transportation) rose 0.6% m/m vs consensus for 0.7% rise and May's 1.8% increase (was +1.3%). Core capital goods orders (non-defense, ex aircraft) up 0.9% m/m vs consensus for a 0.5% increase and May's revised 1.9% increase (was +1.6%); core capital goods shipments (which feed into GDP) increased 1.9% vs consensus for 0.6% rise and May's rise of 0.2%. Elsewhere, July Dallas Fed Index came in at +1.3 vs consensus +3.0 and June's +0.0; new orders and production rose while shipments were mostly unchanged; employment remained steady, while price pressures stayed elevated, finished goods inflation cooled while raw material prices were essentially unchanged. Looking ahead at this week's notable macro events, Wednesday's FOMC meeting the main event with market pricing in a ~34% chance of a rate hike, though Street broadly expects Fed to hold rates steady, with previews pointing to a hawkish hold and at least one dissent. Thursday brings first look at Q2 GDP with consensus expecting +2.3% Q/Q after +2.1% in Q1. June PCE also in focus Thursday with market looking for 0.1% m/m decline following May's 0.45% rise. Persona; consumption and income both seen steadily rising again. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 08:03	Monday morning check-in: Big macro/micro week ahead: Week of 27-Jul set to be one of the busiest of the year. July FOMC the macro highlight with headlines highlighting heightened uncertainty into the meeting. Core PCE inflation and first look at Q2 GDP the notable data points this week. Roughly 35% of S&P 500 market cap set to report Q2 results this week, including four of the Mag 7 names (Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft). US and Iran pause hostilities: US paused attacks on Iran over the weekend following nearly two weeks of escalation. Iran paused its attacks in response. US reportedly concerned about effectiveness of additional bombing and dwindling munitions. Diplomacy efforts continue to take place in the background with various reports about the extent of the (still nascent) traction. However, pause in kinetic activity at least fits with longstanding escalate to de-escalate narrative. Open-weight AI model debate: Open-weight models have started to dominate the AI discussion. Recent support for open-weight ecosystem from Nvidia and other leading tech names. Companies that sell chips and hardware benefit from compute demand proliferation expected from cheaper open-weight models (Axios). However, the frontier labs have pushed for tighter restrictions amid concerns about IP theft, distillation and cybersecurity risks (NY Times). Nvidia in talks to backstop OpenAI data center deal: Nvidia reportedly in talks to provide ~$250B of financial backing for OpenAI as part of a massive, 10-gigawatt data center project in Ohio. Total project cost could exceed $500B+. Report noted Nvidia also discussing a deal to finance the chip purchase for OpenAI, which could total $350B. Fits with both the insatiable compute/capex demand and circularity scrutiny narratives. Strong debut for China's CXMT: Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT surged nearly 466% on Monday following its IPO. Stock gained as much as 535% at one point. Memory space in focus given surge in pricing from the AI boom. That surge has been a margin headwind for companies like Apple, which has been aggressively lobbying White House for permission to utilize memory chips from CXMT for devices sold outside the US while Micron has pushed back (link). FOMC likely on hold: Headlines continue to highlight elevated uncertainty into the July FOMC meeting. In addition, market still pricing in a ~34% probability of a rate hike. However, Street widely expects Fed to remain on hold, albeit with some likely dissents. No major changes expected in the recently shortened policy statement. Warsh expected to reiterate Fed's resolve to get inflation back to 2% but not expected to provide color on reaction function. Elevated earnings metrics: According to FactSet's latest Earnings Insight, blended growth rate for Q2 S&P 500 earnings now stands at 37.9%, up from 23.2% at the end of the Q. When excluding Google, whose results included a $98B unrealized gain from Anthropic, blended growth rate a still strong 25.9%. Report also noted 86% of reporters have surpassed consensus earnings expectations. Excluding Google, earnings have surprised to the upside by 12.6%. Good guidance one of the early Q2 earnings season themes: Early Q2 earnings season themes have included the AI capex boom, pricing power, productivity initiatives, industrial recovery momentum/broadening out and consumer resilience. BofA also noted that MTD, companies have issued 1.3x more above- than below-consensus EPS guides, stronger than the historical average of 1.0x in July. Added 3-month guidance ratio is tracking 1.9x, the highest since 2021. Big companies hiring again: Last week saw more support for the solid labor market narrative with lowest level of claims since 1969. Financial press also discussed how after a year of holding back due to economic uncertainties and AI, big companies from a wide range of industries have started to hire again. Noted that both costs and limitations of AI now demand that more people be added (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 07:22	StreetAccount Event Preview: July FOMC meeting July FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday (29-Jul) with policy statement (14 ET), Chair Warsh press conference (14:30 ET). Previews expect few changes to policy statement, though could include update to reflect improving unemployment rate. Previews said press conference unlikely to contain any new information, though UBS speculated whether having a press conference (which Warsh himself said may be unnecessary unless Fed has something to say) could signal a policy change. Several previews said rate decision will reflect Warsh's position with committee ultimately supporting the Chair. BofA sees hold, arguing not hiking could dent Fed's credibility on inflation, though hiking goes against Warsh's framework of looking through supply shocks. Goldman Sachs also sees hold, though noted elevated uncertainty given re-escalation of Iran hostilities happened during blackout period. Citi expects officials to ultimately decide policy in a good place, though argued a hold would be interpreted by markets as dovish. However, expect dissents from Hammack, Logan, while a third dissent could be interpreted as hawkish. Goldman also argued that a hike would have minimal disinflationary impact given inflation pressure from supply shocks, while inflation expectations remain anchored. Despite this weekend's dovish Iran updates and pullback in oil prices, futures markets pricing ~33% chance of a hike as of Monday, up from 16% a week ago. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
27-Jul-2026 06:26	US-Iran hostilities remain paused, mediators work to reopen formal talks: US attacks on Iran remained on hold over the weekend after an escalation that ran nearly two weeks; Iran has also said it will pause its attacks (Reuters, Bloomberg). Trump administration officials said yesterday the president is keeping all options on the table while "giving talks some space" (Washington Post). Pause comes after CENTCOM commander Cooper last week recommended stopping the current campaign to degrade Iranian assets capable of targeting the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the air attacks had reached the limit of their effectiveness (Axios). Also comes amid multiple press reports about dwindling US stockpiles of antimissile interceptors (see NY Times), though White House officials this weekend dismissed those concerns (NBC News). However, while there is a pause in the fighting there is not yet any ceasefire or clear road to a resumption of talks. Regional mediators suggest there has been some progress by Qatar and Pakistan to return to the prior ceasefire agreement (AP), though Reuters reports there is "more skepticism than optimism" within Iran about the recent pause, with the prevailing view that it is a tactical step by the US. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to warn ships attempting to pass the SoH amid ongoing dialogue between Iran and Oman about the future of the strait (CBS News). Market welcoming the step-down in tensions, with crude prices and Treasury yields both coming down. But no visibility yet into any sort of firm offramp. Reports about US munitions shortages are not new, and it is not clear the parties are anywhere near a compromise on the SoH after both sides have drawn red lines. But as military officials have reportedly warned about the limits of an air-only campaign, recall the broad consensus that Trump may have limited (or no) appetite for any kind of escalation involving ground troops. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jul-2026 13:02	Bullish talking points for week-ended 24-Jul: Momentum stabilized this week with help from an outsized Tuesday rally. Goldman Sachs said its High Beta Momentum Pair gained 9.3%, the best one-day rally in last five years following a 33% drawdown. Highlighted likely help from much cleaner positioning, which it pegged in the 64^th percentile over the one-year period, as well as lack of a fundamental catalyst behind the selloff. Strong Q2 earnings metrics and upbeat thematic takeaways. Nearly 85% of reporters have surpassed consensus EPS. Even when removing Google (Anthropic boost) from the equation, earnings have surprised to the upside by nearly 13%. Thematic takeaways have revolved around the AI capex boom, pricing power, industrial recovery momentum/broadening out, consumer resilience, strong travel demand, productivity initiatives. Several bright spots in the Q2 results from Google despite stock selloff (including from perspective of capex ROI/monetization). Takeaways focused on +82% y/y growth in Google Cloud (Street was ~65% and buyside was 70%+), continued Gemini ramp (app 950M MAU, 22B tokens per minute, nearly 90% of Fortune 100 using Gemini Enterprise), AI tailwind for Search and above-target TPU output. AI compute/capex narrative support not limited to earnings this week. Anthropic and AMD announced 2GW partnership. OpenAI reportedly lifted its pre-2030 compute budget by 25% to $750B. Bigger story may have revolved around the flurry of coverage on Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, some of which focused on lower cost of inference as a meaningful driver of AI use case expansion (more compute demand). Solid labor market narrative supported by lowest level of claims (187K) since 1969. While seasonality flagged, four-week moving average also depressed (208K). Citi discussed the print as further evidence of a low-churn labor market. BofA noted support for a healthy labor market from both claims and ADP average weekly job growth, even amid the recent moderation in the latter. Escalate to de-escalate narrative not going away. Still seen as a constraint on oil rallies, even with little traction behind potential diplomacy offramps and Iran's reported rejection of a short-term US ceasefire proposal. This gets back to perceived White House market and affordability sensitivity. Also a headline on Friday about a push from China for US and Iran to re-engage in talks. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jul-2026 13:02	Bearish talking points for week-ended 24-Jul: Further upward pressure on oil (Brent briefly pushed back above $100 a barrel Thursday) as kinetic hostilities in the Middle East remained elevated, multiple reports highlighted potential for US expansion, diplomacy offramp hopes dissipated (though back in the headlines Friday) and Red Sea emerged as second regional chokepoint concern with Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers. Also more focus on waning levers to offset supply shocks. Further upward pressure on bond yields with 10-year Treasury yield above 4.70% for first time since early 2025 and 30-year bond yield above 5% for longest stretch since 2007. Oil the widely cited driver, along with more discussion about structural/fiscal and corporate supply (AI heavy) pressures. Also concerns about a renewed pickup in bond vol, particularly given heightened Fed guidance and reaction function uncertainties. Rough start to Mag 7 earnings with Google down 7.1% and Tesla down 14.5% on Thursday (Mag 7 lost nearly $800B in market cap). Google pressured by 2026 capex guidance raise, negative FCF, near-term margin drag from "bridge" capacity and compute forays and reiteration of another big capex ramp in 2027. Tesla hit by softer Auto GMs and elevated capex/opex. High earnings bar for AI plays and semis, which despite select issues, were still accompanied by largely upbeat takeaways. GE Vernova fell 8.5%+ despite its Power backlog raise. STMicroelectronics fell 18.5%+ despite strong bookings. TE Connectivity fell 4%+ despite strong AI-related order momentum. Intel lagged Friday despite strong server CPU demand. Texas Instruments fell 3%+ despite its beat and raise. Busy week of tariff headlines highlighted by Trump's official tariff reset on Thursday. White House announced new tariffs, ranging from 10-12.5%, on ~60 economies. Cited prevention of forced labor in supply chains under Section 301. No meaningful impact on US effective tariff rate but some focus on broader affordability dynamics and less favorable policy mix narrative following recent tariff refund and OBBBA tailwinds. AI caught up in geopolitics. Reports this week noted Trump administration could ban cutting-edge models from China or implement a pressure campaign focused on security and governance issues. Trump administration also accused Moonshot AI of distilling Anthropic model and accessing banned Nvidia chips. China reportedly considering export controls on its AI and semi technology, including downloads of model weights AI disruption in enterprise software and margin pressure from memory price spike highlighted again this week. Pegasystems fell 16% after it missed and noted unprecedented changes in the AI market caused clients to delay their purchasing decisions. Calix fell 2%+ as higher memory costs drove a 460 bp sequential decline in appliance GM and company noted demand headwind from tighter customer inventory management. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jul-2026 10:13	July flash manufacturing PMI slightly below consensus, while services beat: July flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8 vs consensus 54.3 and June's reading of 53.9; flash services PMI came in at 53.6 vs consensus 51.3 and June's reading of 51.2; manufacturing PMI now at four-month low, while services reached highest level in eight months. Report noted supplier delays worsened to their most severe level in nearly four years amid ongoing Middle East conflict; input cost inflation hit a 14-month high, while selling price inflation neared a four-year peak; employment rose after two months of declines. Growth was supported by FIFA World Cup-related spending, stronger 4-Jul demand, and increased business investment, while exports continued to decline; manufacturers also continued precautionary inventory building amid Middle East supply concerns. Regarding future outlook, business output expectations improved in to an eight month high, but prospects diverged by sector. Elsewhere, June new home sales came in at 628K vs consensus 610K and May's revised 618K (was 580K); median sales price was $398,300, up 3.3% from May. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jul-2026 07:40	Friday morning check-in: Iran rejects ceasefire proposal: Iran reportedly rejected a ceasefire proposal from President Trump that was delivered to Tehran by the Iraqi prime minister. NY Times said details of the proposal were not immediately clear, but noted Iranian officials said it was the only offer on the table and Tehran not interested in a temporary agreement that does not resolve the key question related to control over Strait of Hormuz. US continues attacks in Iran: US completed 13^th consecutive wave of strikes on Iran on Friday. Continued to frame strikes as effort to dampen Iranian influence over SoH transit and said strait remains open for commercial vessels with US military support. Nothing seemingly incremental when it comes to the Red Sea, which has emerged as the second chokepoint concern in the conflict with the Houthi threats/attacks on Saudi vessels this week. Trump tariff reset: Trump administration announced new tariffs, ranging from 10-12.5%, on ~60 economies. Cited prevention of forced labor in supply chains. Widely telegraphed as a replacement for the temporary 10% tariffs Trump imposed following SCOTUS. Not much change in US effective tariff rate but some focus on broader affordability dynamics and less favorable policy mix narrative following recent tariff refund and OBBBA tailwinds. Mag 7 lost nearly $800B on Thursday: Mag 7 fell 4.8% on Thursday, its biggest decline since "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April 2025. According to Bloomberg, the selloff erased $797B in market value from the group. Elevated capex the big overhang following earnings from Google and Tesla. While former delivered 82% Cloud growth and other dynamics that supported monetization, not enough to counter latest capex guidance raise and negative FCF. Intel rallies on strong results and guidance: Intel outperforming following strong Q2 results and better Q3 guidance. Takeaways noted beats in both DCAI and CCPG. DCAI grew nearly 60% y/y on the back of strong server CPU demand. Company said demand continues to far outpace available supply and sees momentum extending into 2028. Street also put a positive spin around Intel's capex boost, noting it highlights confidence in foundry strategy. Fed the macro highlight next week: FOMC policy decision and Warsh press conference on Wednesday, 29-Jul. Market currently pricing in a nearly 30% probability of a 25 bp rate hike. Street widely expects Fed to leave policy unchanged. Market currently pricing in just over 40 bp of tightening this year. Policy expectations complicated by forward guidance policy shift and debates over reaction function to temporary/supply shocks, extent of spillover effects and AI. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jul-2026 06:18	Trump reimplements tariffs, to collect duties up to 12.5% from most major trading partners: Trump administration announced new import duties ranging from 10-12.5% on ~60 economies, citing prevention of forced labor in supply chains to the detriment of American workers (Bloomberg, FT, NY Times). A second set of investigations underway, focused on trading partners including China, Japan, Mexico, and the EU over claims of excess capacity, though rates for these countries not yet finalized. Duties authorized under Section 301 of Trade Act of 1974, which allows administration to avoid relying on emergency powers. New tariffs meant to replace the 10% duty (that was valid for only 150 days) that Trump imposed globally shortly after the Supreme Court invalidated previous wave of Liberation Day tariffs. Latest duties include exemptions for oil, gas, fertilizer, some goods that US does not produce, also includes some exemptions for covered by Trump's 2020 trade deal with Canada. Latest tariffs follow broader ramp in tariffs in recent weeks. On Monday, Trump announced 50% tariff on some Canadian goods earlier this week, followed 25% tariff on many Brazilian imports last week. Early economist takeaways noted impact may be somewhat muted given rates lower than prior IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, was expected given administration's desire to figure out tariffs under other rules after Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. However, overhang of further tariffs adding uncertainty, adds risk of higher than expected tariffs into 2027. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jul-2026 15:06	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Trump warns Iran (and the Houthis) will face consequences for attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea (CNBC) Trump says he is seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran, but has not yet made a decision (Axios) Energy: Despite current volatility, futures markets suggest investors expect oil prices to moderate to $86 per barrel by December (NY Times) Three VLCCs navigate Strait of Hormuz Thursday amid rising tensions with Iran (Bloomberg) Kazakhstan cutting crude oil production following drone strikes on commercial tankers at the CPC terminal (Moscow Times) Russia considering extending its gasoline ban for another six months amid domestic shortage (IFX) Markets: US Treasury yields hit yearly highs as Iran war fears fuel hawkish Fed bets, market pricing 35% chance of July hike (Bloomberg) Rising inflation volatility threatens to trigger earnings disappointments, wider credit spreads (Bloomberg) US Treasury ramps up short-term bill issuance amid rising federal deficits and borrowing needs (Reuters) Investors shift away from bonds, toward commodities, real assets as inflation hedges (Reuters) Corporate: Cerebras Systems announces partnership with AMD on disaggregated inference (BI, Press Release) Mobileye co-founder Amnon Shashua to step down as CEO (Bloomberg) Trade/tariffs: USTR Greer to make announcement later Thursday about the administration's tariff plans (Bloomberg) EU fines Google €890M in test of Trump's threats to protect Big Tech (FT) Central banks: ECB officials signal potential September rate hike amid Middle East conflict (Bloomberg) ECB's Lagarde signals she will not leave bank until at least 2027 (Bloomberg) Washington: House lawmakers approve largely symbolic war powers resolution to end conflict in Iran in second rebuke of Trump (Politico) DoJ restructuring merger review process to focus on key competition concerns rather than expansive probes (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMD, CBRS, MBLY	show story hide story
23-Jul-2026 12:37	Thursday midday check-in: Risk off but a few bright spots: Risk off on Mag 7 drag, higher oil, higher yields. However, elevated hyperscaler capex has helped some pockets of the AI infrastructure trade. Momentum outperforming again. Machinery has also fared well. Earnings a tailwind for A&D and rails. Biopharma a standout in a fairly strong healthcare sector, where earnings outside of Molina have been well received (labs a particular bright spot). Energy boosted by crude spike. Trump seriously considering renewing major operations in Iran: Oil up ~6% in Thursday midday trading on Middle East tensions. Trump told Axios he is seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran. Report also highlighted Iranian resistance to near-term ceasefire proposal. The other big story as of late has been the emergence of the Red Sea as a chokepoint. Houthis recently attacked two Saudi oil tankers while other vessels have had to reroute. Mag 7 leading market lower: Mag 7 down ~5% in Thursday midday trading and on track for biggest one-day selloff since "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April 2025. Google pressured with strong Cloud growth overshadowed by another capex guidance raise and negative FCF. However, Street still positive given perceived AI capex ROI traction. Tesla a double-digit % decliner on softer Auto GMs and elevated capex/opex, though Robotaxi takeaways leaned more upbeat. 10-year yield pushes through 4.70%: More upward pressure on bonds yields today with 10s above 4.70% for first time since January 2025. Usual suspects in focus, particularly oil, along with structural/deficit and corporate supply (hyperscaler debt wave has been the big story) headwinds. Fed policy uncertainty another area of focus following forward guidance shift. Market now pricing in a nearly 40% probability of a tightening next week and just over 45 bp of rate hikes this year. Rail rally: Rails a standout in a strong industrials sector. Earnings and M&A the tailwinds. CSX, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern all beat on EPS with focus on yields/pricing. Tighter truck capacity, data centers and some broadening of industrial demand mentioned as bright spots. M&A the other big story today with Canadian National dropping its opposition to the proposed tie-up between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. Thursday earnings themes: Still all about AI, particularly infrastructure. Data center demand a standout. Also some industrial broadening out and non-res construction strength. A&D among best end markets with orders/backlog bright spots. Consumer read-throughs today more about bifurcation than resilience. Pricing power and productivity measures (to help margins) remain broad earnings themes. Inflows and market-related activity in focus again in financials. Initial claims lowest since 1969: Initial claims fell by 22K to 187K in week-ended 18-Jul, well below the revised 209K and 210K consensus and lowest level since 1969. Four-week moving average of claims decreased by 7K to 208K. Street takeaways flagged residual seasonality. Citi also mentioned slower population growth and noted depressed level of claims fits with widely discussed low-churn labor market. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jul-2026 08:51	Initial claims fall to lowest level since 1969: Initial claims came in at 187K vs consensus 208K and previous week's upwardly revised 209K (was 208K); 4-week moving average was 207,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's; initial jobless claims now lowest since 1969, underscoring continued labor market resilience with layoffs remaining limited despite tepid hiring; continuing claims came in at 1796K vs consensus 1807K and prior week's downwardly revised 1798K (was 1805K). Largest increases in initial claims for the week ending 11-Jul were in New York (+12,580), Michigan (+3,143), Florida (+2,799), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-5,603), Missouri (-5,391), and California (-2,311). Elsewhere this morning, June Chicago Fed Index came in at -0.02, improving from May's reading of -0.19; production indicators weakened modestly m/m, while sales, orders, and inventories improved, turning positive. Employment indicators were unchanged at -0.04, continuing to weigh on activity; personal consumption and housing strengthened, improved and provided the largest positive contribution. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jul-2026 07:34	Thursday morning check-in: Oil higher again: Oil higher again with WTI crude up over 10% thus far this week and up nearly 30% thus far in July. Diplomatic off-ramp hopes have dissipated in recent days, headlines have hinted at further escalation, and Red Sea has emerged as the new chokepoint. Recent press reports have focused on how global economy now facing energy supply pressure on three fronts at a time when reserves are at lowest levels in years (link, Reuters). Google Cloud growth strong but capex concerns linger: Google a post-earnings laggard despite some reprieve for AI capex ROI concerns via 82% Google Cloud growth (Street was ~65% and buyside was 70%+), continued Gemini ramp (950M MAU) and more discussion about AI as incremental for Search. However, capex still an overhang with 2026 guidance boosted to $195-205B from $180-190B, 2027 still expected to rise significantly and the negative turn for FCF. Google capex a positive for AI infrastructure trade: The capex scrutiny headwind on the hyperscalers is also a tailwind for the broader semi infrastructure trade that has seen some stabilization this week following an outsized unwind in recent weeks. That unwind was largely chalked up to technical/market structure dynamics, though there were still a lot of attempts to backfit a narrative. Some thoughts momentum bounce has legs given cleaner positioning and compute/capex headlines. Tesla misses on margins: Tesla pullback largely blamed on softer auto GM ex-credits, driven by weaker pricing and mix. Also some scrutiny surrounding higher AI and R&D spending, while company said it continues to expect 2026 capex > $25B. Maintained Optimus timeline but also flagged supply chain and complexity issues. Robotaxi takeaways leaned more upbeat with Florida expansion and safety record. Wednesday evening earnings themes: Several themes in focus from Wednesday evening's batch of earnings. These include elevated hyperscaler capex (key to AI infrastructure trade), deteriorating hyperscaler FCF trends, capex monetization, higher bar for semis vs lower bar for software, broadening cyclical/industrial recovery, non-res construction strength, memory cost pressures, fuel cost pressures, still strong travel demand. Fed's forward guidance shift in focus into July meeting: Fed's shift on forward guidance under new Chair Warsh and potential for it to drive bouts of elevated bond volatility (negative for risk assets) in focus again heading into next week's FOMC meeting (Bloomberg, Axios). Market pricing in a ~30% probability of a rate hike, up from ~15% at the start of the week despite a dearth of fresh data (and following cooler inflation prints last week). Also pricing in just over 40 bp of tightening this year. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jul-2026 06:59	Iran-backed Houthi attacks in Red Sea add to mounting oil supply risks: Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea overnight, signaling a broadening of the Iran conflict, while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and Ukrainian attacks continue to hinder Russia's Black Sea exports (BBC, Bloomberg). UBS said Red Sea attacks threaten Saudi export routes, undermining key alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz and increasing shipping costs and transit times; sees further upside to oil as geopolitical risks escalate across the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Goldman Sachs maintained Q4 2026 Brent forecast of $80/bbl, assuming Q4 de-escalation, though Houthi attacks and weaker Kazakhstan exports (linked to Ukraine war) raise near-term upside risks; noted ~4M bpd of Red Sea crude flows could face rerouting challenges if disruptions spread across Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez. Reuters warned simultaneous disruptions across Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea risks a sharp tightening of global oil markets, while low inventories leave the market with limited buffers against further shocks (Reuters, Oilprice.com). However, 2027 global oil supply surplus remains the base case for many if Gulf production recovers, refining activity normalizes, and supply growth outside the Middle East continues (Reuters). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jul-2026 06:41	Alphabet falls on capex, FCF concerns, Tesla lower after results: Alphabet beat on top and bottom lines with Cloud segment the standout. Cloud revenues up 82% y/y (up from Q1 63% and outpacing 24% y/y total revenue growth), while segment margins beat, Cloud backlog grew $50B q/q to $514B. However, shares lower as FCF negative for first time (and analysts see deeper negative FCF for FY27), while company raised its FY26 capex forecast by $15B to $200B midpoint, said FY27 capex to increase significantly (some analysts estimated over $300B). While market cautious on capex increase and medium-term margin impact, some takeaways noted backlog growth, consumption outpacing commitments by over 50%, enterprise AI momentum may help alleviate some capex ROI fears. Other takeaways included also cautious commentary on Gemini 3.5 Pro release (timeline remains unspecified), resilient Search usage but revenue only in-line, AI improving ad results, recognizing TPU revenue for first time. Tesla EPS, EBITDA missed, though revenue slightly ahead. Margins missed as Autos ex-EV credits light and vehicle ASPs lower, R&D elevated, and company unable to repeat Q1 warranty, tariff benefits. Street cautious on weaker Auto margins despite bigger increase in FSD than expected, Energy segment hit from warranty changes and lower ASPs, capex increase to $25B, mixed commentary around Optimus (affirmed timeline but noted lack of supply chain, complexity) but some positive Robotaxi takeaways (confirmed Florida expansion, highlighted safety record). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, TSLA	show story hide story
22-Jul-2026 15:03	Afternoon headlines: Iran conflict: Latest statements from US, Iran give no indication negotiations are imminent (Bloomberg) Trump threatens to destroy a bridge or power plant for each ship Iran attacks in the Strait of Hormuz (Truth Social) Houthis have deployed missiles and drones to Red Sea, stand ready to attack ships (CNBC) Lebanon and Israel set to hold their next round of U.S.-brokered talks on 4-Aug in Italy (Times of Israel) AI: OpenAI launching corporate AI product to help enterprises deploy AI agents with internal data and workflows (BI) Anthropic and AMD announce 2GW partnership (The Verge) OpenAI raises its projected spending on computing infrastructure to ~$750B through 2030 (Quartz) Amazon cutting jobs on its Artificial General Intelligence team (Reuters) SpaceXAI is looking into a large-scale data center expansion in Texas (The Information) Moonshot accused by White Houe official of improperly using US AI models and Nvidia chips to create Kimi k3 (Bloomberg) Corporate: Porsche planning to cut another 5K jobs, according to German media (US News) Phillip Morris is boosting its investment in Zyn pouches as competition intensifies (Reuters) Nestlé nears deal to sell 50% stake in water unit to Platinum Equity for around €5B (FT) Paramount Skydance merger receives EU approval, still faces significant legal hurdles in the US (Bloomberg) Market: 30Y bond has traded above 5% for nearly 20% of 2026's sessions, the most since 2007 (Bloomberg) BofA urges clients to buy US momentum stocks following recent profit taking (Bloomberg) Japan may prioritize controlling yields over FX intervention to fund economic growth, according to Deutsche Bank (Bloomberg) Energy: Global economy facing energy supply pressure on three fronts at a time when reserves are at lowest levels in years (link) Russia's fuel shortage reportedly easing as Ukraine shifts attacks from refineries to ships (Bloomberg) US refiners are ramping up diesel production to near-record levels amid global shortage (Bloomberg) Crude oil inventories in the US increased 2.0M barrels during the week ending 17-Jul (Oilprice.com) Geopolitics: New UK defense secretary Streeting declines to commit to 3% defense spending target by 2030 (FT) Trump weighing military action in the African country of Mali to target an al-Qaeda-affiliated group (Washington Post) Trade/tariffs: Mercedes faces potential US sales ban under new legislation targeting Chinese ownership in autos (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMD, AMZN, NVDA, PM, PSKY, SPCX, WBD, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
22-Jul-2026 12:57	Wednesday midday check-in: Waiting game: Several moving pieces as market waits for some high-profile earnings after the close (including Google). Momentum mixed to better following big bounce yesterday. Energy, machinery, A&D, building materials, builders, metals, chemicals, IBs, exchanges, staples, telco and auto parts some of the outperformers. Laggards include software, big tech, China tech, alts, insurance and healthcare US-Iran rhetoric remains elevated, Red Sea disruption concerns ramp: President Trump said this morning US would destroy a bridge or power plant in Iran any time Iran attacks a ship in Strait of Hormuz. Followed recent batch of headlines highlighting dampened expectations for a near-term diplomatic solution. Oil boosted by recent ramp in supply concerns focused on the Red Sea. Four more tankers reportedly changed course today following threats from the Houthis (Reuters). Yields up again: Bond yields higher again today with oil still the easiest excuse. Market now pricing in just over 40 bp worth of Fed tightening this year. While front of the curve hit harder, also some scrutiny surrounding the long end. Bloomberg pointed out 30-year bond trading above 5% for longest stretch since 2007. Highlighted structural/deficit concerns and corporate supply (AI). Former in focus yesterday with military funding request. Anthropic and AMD announce 2GW partnership (and investment deal): Anthropic to deploy up to 2GW of AMD's Instinct MI450 (Helios) chips, starting in 2027. AMD will also invest up to $5B in Anthropic and is reportedly in talks to backstop some of Anthropic's data-center lease costs. Deal supportive of broader AI compute/capex demand narrative (even though expected). Also plays into chip diversification/Nvidia-challenger narrative, along with vendor financing/circular deal structure scrutiny. Wednesday's earnings themes: Several themes to pull from the latest batch of earnings. These include continued strength behind AI infrastructure demand, further traction for the industrial recovery theme, more signs of consumer resilience (this was part of the takeaway from bank earnings last week) and pricing (which is helping offset cost inflation). GE Vernova lags but takeaways still largely upbeat: GE Vernova one of the higher-profile laggards today. Pullback largely chalked up to combination of a margin/EBITDA miss and a high bar. Move to expand turbine capacity to 30GW by 2030 (from 24GW) also plays into some concerns surrounding oversupply. However, takeaways upbeat overall, highlighting strength and durability of demand backdrop. Orders +88%, gas turbine backlog raised again and FCF guidance boosted. Pulte highlights some signs of housing stabilization, but affordability challenges linger: PulteGroup's earnings release noted early signs that conditions may be stabilizing in select geographies. Company also noted higher y/y orders across all buyer groups. However, highlighted continued sensitivity to global tensions, macro uncertainty and rate movements. Also said incentive environment expected to remain elevated given affordability challenges. Google kicks off earnings for the hyperscalers amid capex scrutiny: Google reports Q2 results after the close today. Capex ROI dynamics expected to get outsized attention, particularly with the recent pressure on the AI hardware trade. This will put the focus on Google Cloud growth and backlog momentum. Street looking for ~65% Cloud growth, though buyside expectations seen above 70%. TPU revenue will also be closely watched, along with any color on delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro launch. Tesla all about autonomous: Tesla the other Mag 7 name scheduled to report after the close today. Robotaxi expansion the key area of focus, though some previews cautious on limited ramp in key markets. Optimus also in focus given company's timeline to start production in late July or August, though limited until FY27. Still a lot of discussion surrounding a potential combination with SpaceX. Positive sentiment into earnings from Texas Instruments: Q2 earnings previews for Texas Instruments, which reports after the close, were upbeat. Focused on continued DC growth, cyclical recovery (PMI expansion) tailwind for industrial and pricing. Some talk of elevated expectations into the print. Stock rallied sharply following Q1 earnings in late April (despite elevated expectations) with takeaways focused on strong DC and industrial performance. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
22-Jul-2026 07:18	Wednesday morning check-in: Diplomacy talk dissipates, supply concerns ratchet up: Oil higher again as near-term diplomacy hopes have dissipated and supply concerns gain renewed traction. Rubio said today Iran not serious about peace talks and noted SoH remains key sticking point between the two sides (CNBC). Houthis reportedly ready to attack shipping positions near Bab el-Mandeb strait in Red Sea after announcing earlier this week they would be blocking shipping tied to Saudi Arabia (Bloomberg). Google kicks off earnings for the hyperscalers amid capex scrutiny: Google reports Q2 results after the close today. Capex ROI dynamics expected to get outsized attention, particularly with the recent pressure on the AI hardware trade. This will put the focus on Google Cloud growth and backlog momentum. Street looking for ~65% Cloud growth, though buyside expectations seen above 70%. TPU revenue will also be closely watched, along with any color on delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro launch. Big momentum bounce on Tuesday: Momentum saw a big bounce on Tuesday after an initial recovery attempt on Monday faded throughout the day. Goldman Sachs said its High Beta Momentum Pair gained 9.3%, the best one-day rally in the last five years following a 33% drawdown in the factor. Highlighted likely help from much cleaner positioning, which it pegged in the 64^th percentile over one-year period, as well as lack of a fundamental catalyst behind the selloff. Tariff reset on tap: Pickup in tariff headlines has continued. White House to impose 100% tariff on generic drugs starting in August 2028 in push to reshore pharmaceutical production. Tariff would then ramp to 200% in 2029. Some concerns this goes against White House affordability focus. Also more discussion in the press about fresh wave of levies under Section 301 coming to replace the temporary 10% tariffs set to expire on Friday (Bloomberg, link , CNBC ). OpenAI models escape and go hacking: OpenAI said two of its AI models escaped a test environment, accessed the internet and hacked the infrastructure of Hugging Face, a provider of open-source AI tools. OpenAI categorized it as an unprecedented cyber incident, involving state-of-the-art cyber capabilities. Incident expected to exacerbate scrutiny surrounding ability of advanced models to carry out cyber attacks and drive more debate about regulatory oversight. Enterprise software gets another AI warning following IBM: Pegasystems under pressure following its Q2 miss/ACV growth slowdown. Company said customers delaying purchasing decisions amid "unprecedented changes" in the AI market. Last week, IBM fell more than 25% following its negative Q2 preannouncement, which underpinned concerns about an AI-driven spending share shift from software and also played into the AI-driven input cost surge theme. Quick earnings theme update: Still very early when it comes to Q2 earnings themes. Last week was largely about capital markets/trading strength and consumer resilience. Latter has also been in focus this week, even with the challenging macro backdrop (and selectivity dynamic). Cost inflation also flagged this week, though pricing has continued to provide a cushion. Good execution, guidance>Q2 results and soft housing demand some other takeaways. BoJ could accelerate tightening: BoJ widely perceived as behind the curve, a dynamic that has been best evidenced by yen weakness, which in turn has driven more scrutiny surrounding upside inflation risks. According to Bloomberg, BoJ officials open to tightening at a faster pace than consensus expectations, which currently revolve around one rate hike every six months (next rate hike expected in December). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Jul-2026 15:15	Afternoon headlines: Iran conflict: Trump says US not interested in meeting until Iran is serious, says heavy strike on Pickaxe Mountain could come soon (Axios) Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges deep inside Pickaxe Mountain last fall (link) AI: China's Moonshot AI raising pre-IPO funds at a $50B valuation (Bloomberg) Google releases cheaper versions of Gemini AI model but doesn't give color on timing of delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro launch (Reuters) Anthropic and AI robotics software developer Physical Intelligence held early acquisition talks last spring but did not go further (The Information) Microsoft expands ties with France's Mistral AI , to help build European data centers (link) At least six Chinese startups that develop AI models preparing for IPOs through 2027 (link) Energy: Two Chinese VLCCs carrying Saudi crude make U-turn in Red Sea after Houthi warnings (Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia exported record volumes of crude via Red Sea terminals in days before Houthi blockade threat (Bloomberg) IEA warns ramp in Middle East hostilities increases securty of supply concerns and uncertainty over market outlook (FT) Corporate: SpaceX sets first earnings report for 4-Aug, at which point investors can sell up to 20% of any locked-up shares (CNBC) Novo Nordisk sues Eli Lilly, alleging false advertising over weight-loss drug claims (Reuters) Apple to launch leasing program for most iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Watch models next week (Bloomberg) Washington latest state to win court order restricting Kalshi's activities (Reuters) M&A: Utz Brands to be taken private by Germany's Intersnack at 91% premium to Monday's close in $2.9B deal (Bloomberg) Icahn Enterprises to sell Pep Boys to PE-owned Mavis Tire Express for $700M cash (link) Market: US Treasury looking to clamp down on "tax alpha strategies" helping wealthy investors reduce or delay taxes owed (Bloomberg) Trade/tariffs: USTR Greer says he expects to see action soon on a new round of US tariffs (CNBC) Boeing asks for the US government's intervention after EU extends a €3+ billion loan package to Airbus (Reuters) Canada's Carney says he and Trump agreed to accelerate trade talks ahead of next month's planned 50% tariff (Bloomberg) Crypto: Treasury Secretary Bessent says Clarity Act is at the '1-yard line' (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, BA, GOOGL, LLY, MSFT, NVO, SPCX, UTZ, +ANTHROPIC, +KALSHI, +MISTRAL, +MOONSHOT.HK...(more)	show story hide story
21-Jul-2026 12:06	Tuesday midday check-in: Momentum outperformance: Momentum leading the market higher today after yesterday's bounce waned throughout the session. Similar to yesterday, nothing specific behind the move. Still some efforts to back-fit a narrative, with the TSMC price hike headline highlighted today. Also some pushback against concerns about open-source model proliferation as a threat to the AI capex narrative. Broadening out trade trails but momentum not the only area of strength: Equal-weight S&P underperforming benchmark by ~70 bp. Several higher-profile broadening out trade plays have lagged today, including retail, regional banks and homebuilders. Software and Mag 7 also underperforming. However, a number of pockets of strength beyond momentum, including small caps. Autos (OEMs, parts, parts retailers), machinery, metals, chemicals, big banks and pharma some of the other notable gainers. Oil higher with SoH and Red Sea transit complications: Oil back to reacting to geopolitics following recent hope surrounding behind-the-scenes diplomacy efforts (despite scarce details). Stalled SoH transit (and more attacks on commercial ships) and reports of Saudi tanker U-turns in the Red Sea following Houthi warning on naval blockade in focus (Reuters). Saudis exported record volumes of crude from Red Sea in days and weeks before Houthi threat (Bloomberg). Bond yields up again: Further upward pressure on rates today, particularly at the front of the curve. 10-year yields at highest levels in about two months. Oil strength a go-to excuse, though yesterday's backup came despite a fairly muted move in oil. Fed not expected to hike at next week's meeting but market currently pricing in just under 40 bp worth of tightening this year. 3M boosted by organic growth outperformance: 3M one of the higher-profile earnings gainers today. Takeaways focused on Q2 organic growth of +5.4%, which beat by 200 bp+ and according to UBS, was best in 19 Qs. Innovation momentum another bright spot with new product launches up nearly 45%. Company also talked up Expanded Beam Optics/DC opportunity on its call. Danaher under pressure on Bioprocessing disappointment: Danaher a notable earnings decliner today. While Q2 EPS beat and company raised FY26 EPS guidance, takeaways focused on Bioprocessing revenue miss and push-out to FY27. Company narrowed 2026 organic growth guide to +3-4% from prior +3-6%. However, did stress that underlying demand remains healthy. Texas Instruments reports after the close: Q2 earnings previews for Texas Instruments were upbeat with focus on continued DC growth, cyclical recovery (PMI expansion) tailwind for industrial and pricing. Some talk of elevated expectations into the print. Stock rallied sharply following Q1 earnings in late April (despite elevated expectations) with takeaways focused on strong DC and industrial performance. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Jul-2026 07:44	Tuesday morning check-in: Momentum tries to bounce again: Nothing specific behind the latest momentum bounce attempt (stabilized on Monday but bounce faded throughout the day). Some focus on magnitude of the unwind, cleaner (though still elevated) positioning, along with a looming pickup in earnings activity that could help put the focus back on the compute/capex demand narrative. Semis expected to account for nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth in Q2. Ceasefire hopes helping market largely ignore geopolitics: Reports continue to focus on a 10-day US-Iran ceasefire proposal from Middle East mediators, though details remain scarce (and there were headlines yesterday Iran rejected). At the same time, kinetic hostilities remain elevated, Trump reportedly considering expanding the war, SoH transit has seen a sharp drop off and supply shock concerns have been exacerbated by Houthi threats to the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Trump hits Canada with tariffs: Trump administration said it would impose a 50% tariff on certain Canadian products, including milk and cream, hockey equipment and alcohol. Cited unfair treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy. Tariffs to be applied under Section 338 (which has not been used for tariffs before). Fits with heightened US-Canada trade tensions and White House continued focus on tariffs as a policy tool. Expected to trigger legal challenges. Trump readying new flurry of tariffs: More tariff headlines as FT discussed how US could announce new Section 301 tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week. They would replace the 10% global duties (imposed following SCOTUS ruling on IEEPA tariffs) that are set to expire on Friday. New tariffs likely to fall between 10-12.5%. Report noted some advisors urging Trump to honor existing trade deals and consider affordability issues into midterms. China considering AI export restrictions: Geopolitics continue to play a big role in AI. Some of the focus yesterday revolved around an Axios report that the Trump administration has hinted it could ban cutting-edge models, while an alternative strategy could revolve around a pressure campaign focused on security and governance issues. Subsequent FT report said China considering tightening export controls on AI and semi technology, including downloads of model weights. China ramps up market support: Broad push by China to stabilize stock market, with tech stocks in focus. Bloomberg highlighted involvement of regulators, state-backed investors, insurers and asset managers. Noted ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF saw record CNY13.8B ($2B) inflows Monday, with traders saying scale suggested state-backed support. FT also recently discussed stimulus expectations surrounding accelerated bond issuance to boost infrastructure spending. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Jul-2026 07:20	White House hits some Canadian goods with 50% tariffs, more tariff actions may be on the way: Notable uptick in trade/tariff headlines out of the Trump administration. Yesterday afternoon, the White House announced additional 50% tariffs on a range of imports from Canada under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (Reuters, Bloomberg). Duties to cover items such as milk, beer, and plywood accounting for more than 5% of Canadian exports, but will not apply to items like energy, minerals, or categories with current, specific tariffs. Tariffs will apply even if shippers follow USMCA rules. USTR Greer said new duties a response to Canada retaliating against earlier US tariff efforts. In a statement, Canada's PM Carney said Canada has been within its rights to match earlier tariff actions but stands ready to engage with the US on trade issues. Note the US and Mexico will hold bilateral trade talks this week on revising the USMCA, not involving Canada (Reuters). FT also out with a report the US could announce new Section 301 tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week, coming as the administration's 10% global duties (imposed following the Supreme Court's February decision) expire on Friday. Article adds new tariffs likely to fall between 10-12.5%; also notes administration may be sensitive to cost pressures as November's midterm elections approach. Reports come after Trump administration yesterday announced measures to counter the threat from aluminum imports (Reuters). Also some recent developments on investment agreements under prior bilateral trade deals. Bloomberg reported EU is confident it can achieve the $1.35T in investments outlined in its 2025 US trade deal; Reuters reported Japan working with JP Morgan and other US banks to secure the dollars it needs to fulfill its $550B investment pledge. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
21-Jul-2026 06:58	Alphabet, Tesla kick off Big Tech earnings this week: Alphabet results (22-Jul, after the bell) expected to show another strong quarter of Cloud growth given strong demand indicators (previews noted capital raise, capacity limitations to certain clients, Amazon price increases, Gemini share gains), Cloud backlog. Street also looking for commentary around AI capex outlook, ROI indicators, why it recently delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro model release, and potential implications of recently reported Frozen v2 AI chip. Tesla (22-Jul, after the bell) focus around robotaxi expansion, though some previews cautious on limited ramp in key markets. Optimus also in focus given company's timeline to start production in late July or August, though limited until FY27. Vehicle deliveries recently outperformed, but margin follow-through limited given raw materials costs, ramp in financing promos. FactSet recently noted Mag 7 companies expected to post 31.1% y/y earnings growth rate for Q2, outpacing the 22.8% pace for the S&P 493. However, group's earnings growth expected to decelerate to 22.8% by Q4, while remaining 493 stocks to accelerate to 25.3%. Some strategists recently noted Big Tech could be rotational beneficiary to momentum selloff. However, Citi recently said Mag 7 moniker no longer relevant, investors should focus instead on "growth cluster" of biggest tech stocks, names tied to AI infrastructure buildout, which makes up ~48% of S&P 500 earnings (Bloomberg). Some recent press articles sharp slowdown of retail purchases of Big Tech in favor of names tied to AI buildout (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, TSLA	show story hide story
20-Jul-2026 14:55	Afternoon headlines: Iran conflict: Yemen's Houthis announce naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening to open new Red Sea front (Reuters) Trump says Iran will pay "many times over" for each American it kills (Truth Social) Iranian Interior Minister Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday with aim of advancing cooperation with Pakistan (link) One shipowner offering crews six months' pay as a bonus for attempting to transit the SoH (Bloomberg) AI: Google developing new "Frozen v2" server chip designed to help run Gemini more efficiently (The Information, CNBC) AMD announces new Helios rack AI system, has signed Microsoft Azure as a customer (CNBC) Trump administration hinting it could ban cutting-edge AI models from China (Axios) Trump's head of AI safety resigns just three months after assuming post at Department of Commerce (Reuters) Corporate: Paramount's merger with Warner Bros. temporarily paused for 14 days by federal judge (Bloomberg) ASML offering employees three-year retention bonuses worth €20,000 (Reuters) Immix Biopharma's CMO was a convicted sex offender on the run from the law (StatNews) Kalshi added 3M new users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Quartz) Taco Bell traffic has declined sharply since the cyclosporiasis outbreak, worse than average fast-food locations (Bloomberg) Markets: Goldman Sachs says hedge funds pulled back from tech stocks at a record pace in the past two months (Bloomberg) Short interest in S&P 500 stocks near its highest level in data going back to 2010 (Bloomberg) Citi strategists say Mag 7 moniker no longer relevant, investors should instead focus on growth cluster tied to AI buildout (Bloomberg) UK gilts underperform other markets after new PM Burnham said he will use flexibility within fiscal rules (FT) Economy: US credit application rate hits highest level nearly five years, according to Fed survey (US News) Geopolitics: Ukraine carries out one of its largest drone attacks on Moscow yet, striking an oil depot and logistics facilities (Fox News) Andy Burnham becomes UK's prime minister, the seventh new leader in just over a decade (NBC News) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMD, ASML, GOOGL, MSFT, PSKY, WBD, YUM...(more)	show story hide story
20-Jul-2026 12:41	Monday midday check-in: Diplomacy chatter but Houthis add to tension: Limited spillover from latest ramp in kinetic activity in Middle East over last few days. Escalate to de-escalate narrative back in play with Iran confirming it has been in touch with negotiators and Araghchi reportedly to travel to Pakistan. However, Iran reportedly already rejected a 10-day ceasefire proposal and Houthis said they are imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. Momentum bounce: Momentum bounce with memory complex and semis standouts. Nothing specific behind the move, though recent unwind has been viewed as more about market structure than fundamentals. While positioning remains elevated, still seen as more conducive for a bounce attempt. Also plenty of discussion about the unrelenting demand behind the AI capex boom and Jevons Paradox implications surrounding open-source models. Broadening out trade lags: A few key pockets of the broadening out trade lagging today with the momentum bounce and higher rate backdrop. These include regional banks, homebuilders and a number of consumer-facing pockets of the market. Machinery, multis, alts, chemicals, industrial metals and pharma some of the other laggards. Software, China tech, airlines and A&D all higher. Google boosted by report of new chip: Google a notable gainer following report by The Information that company is developing a new AI chip, internally called "Frozen v2", that can run Gemini models 6-10x more efficiently than latest TPUs. Stock lagged late last week on Bloomberg report company is months behind schedule on launch of Gemini 3.5 Pro. Google reports Q2 results Wednesday after the close. Capex ROI (via Cloud revenue, backlog) the key issue. Bond yield backup: Some upward pressure (4-5 bp) on bond yields today despite the dampened spillover effects for oil from the ramp in Middle East tensions (though elevated product prices continue to get scrutiny). Light week ahead on the macro front with Fed in blackout period into 29-Jul policy decision. Meeting partly de-risked following cooler inflation prints last week, though market still sees probability of a September rate hike as ~50/50. China AI models could see US crackdown: Ramp in US corporate adoption of cheaper open-source models from China one of the leading themes in AI right now, particularly as they close the performance gap with the leading frontier offerings. Axios reported this morning Trump administration hinting it could ban cutting-edge models from China. Added an alternative strategy could revolve around a pressure campaign focused on security and governance issues. Early Q2 earnings themes: A few themes in focus following first week of Q2 earnings season. Capital markets and trading strength the big takeaway from the big banks, along with resilient consumer backdrop. The big semi names highlighted an extended AI capex cycle (and improved visibility). Also some focus on higher input prices from the AI capex boom. In its Earnings Tracker note, BofA also pointed out modest demand improvement from early cycle industrials. Broadening out trade likely to continue: Morgan Stanley discussed how momentum unwind has helped to fund the broadening out trade. Highlighted fundamental support from strong EPS revisions in underappreciated areas, particularly consumer discretionary goods and transports. Noted that while it would not be surprised to see a bounce in semis, it continues to expect leadership to broaden, a dynamic that may lead to further consolidation in major indices. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Jul-2026 07:32	Monday morning check-in: Escalate to de-escalate narrative back in play: While Brent pushed above $91 a barrel earlier today, no meaningful spillover from another ramp in kinetic activity in the Middle East over the last few days, including death of three US servicemembers and targeting of regional infrastructure. Reprieve has reportedly come from Iranian confirmation it has received proposals from mediators and Rubio comments that Iran has continued to signal a desire to negotiate. Momentum stabilization attempt: Momentum stabilization in focus this morning. No fundamental catalyst for the move, though recent unwind has been viewed as largely technical in nature (with a lot of scrutiny surrounding market structure and seasonality). Next big fundamental catalyst for the group expected to be hyperscaler earnings, with Google kicking things off Wednesday after the close. Capex ROI (via Cloud revenue) the key issue. Moonshot AI dominates the headlines: Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, which rivaled performance of leading offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI in early testing, grabbed another batch of headlines over the weekend. Discussion continued to revolve around broader corporate shift away from frontier model exclusivity toward cheaper open-source offerings from China. Risk to outsized hyperscaler capex and another "DeepSeek" moment also flagged. Momentum unwind and vol metrics: Momentum unwind has been the big market story in July following an outsized Q2 rally. Goldman Sachs noted its High Beta Momentum basket -32% from ytd highs and now only +15% after having reached +60% less than a month ago. Also pointed out momentum factor realized annual volatility now stands at 36%, highest level in 45-year history outside recessions. Momentum positioning still elevated but setup better: Latest JPMorgan Positioning Intelligence update noted positioning in Momentum, Semis, Tech HW still quite elevated, though firm has seen some selling in past couple of weeks. Also pointed out 6m z-score of combined HF positioning and factor performance hit a -0.7z level last Thursday, nearing the -1 to -2z lows seen in the past. Added 1-3m forward returns have swung from worst setup in late June to best now. Mag 7 losing some of its luster: Mag 7 lagging S&P 500 this year after leading it higher for most of the past four years (Bloomberg). Retail investors cooling on the group, shifting their attention to stocks leveraged to the AI buildout (link). Citi said it believes Mag 7 dead as a construct for assessing large-cap growth dynamics. Argued instead for a "cluster" approach that better captures AI infrastructure buildout and its enablers. Early beat rates elevated: According to latest Earnings Insight report from FactSet, ~10% of S&P 500 companies have now reported. 88% have surpassed consensus EPS expectations, above the 5-year average of 78% and 10-year average of 76%. In aggregate, companies have reported earnings 16.4% above expectations, above 5-year average positive rate of 7.0% and 10-year average of 7.4%. Earnings season tailwind tends to come a bit later: Very elevated earnings bar has been mentioned as an overhang and early Q2 earnings season stats show earnings beats unexpectedly punished and misses punished much more meaningfully than average. However, Jefferies (Equity Product Management) also pointed out that while first two weeks of earnings season tend to be lackluster from a market perspective, SPX tends to rally by ~30 bp per week from weeks 3-5. Domino's Pizza talks up order growth: Domino's Pizza higher following a mixed Q2 print. US eked out a +0.1% comp vs -0.3% consensus, while revenue and operating income largely in line. Company said it drove meaningful order count growth in Q2 even as broader US QSR industry continued to face pressure on consumer demand. Stock fell nearly 9% after Q1 earnings, when company flagged outsized pressure on lower-income consumer. Quiet macro, busier micro week on tap: Very quiet on the macro front this week. Fed in its blackout period ahead of a 29-Jul policy decision. Widely seen on hold following cooler inflation prints last week. Not much on the economic calendar with July flash PMIs on Friday the highlight. Earnings activity picks up with Google, Tesla, GE Vernova, IBM, Texas Instruments, Intel, SAP, ServiceNow and United Rentals among the notable reporters. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
20-Jul-2026 06:29	US steps up attacks on Iran after latest US casualties: US conducted a fresh wave of strikes on Iran over the weekend in retaliation for attacks that killed US service members in Jordan on Friday in effort to degrade Iran's ability to restrict traffic of oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz (AP, Axios). The two soldiers were killed in Jordan from an Iranian missile barrage on Friday, and followed a series of attacks on US forces on bases in Jordan over past week. The Pentagon also said Sunday a third member of American military died in Iraq during disposal of downed Iranian attack drone Saturday, with total US casualties hitting 17 (NY Times). However, both US and Iranian negotiators signaled they remain open to talks even as hostilities escalate (NY Times). Iranian foreign ministry said Monday Tehran has received proposals from mediators trying to prevent escalation of tensions and talked up diplomacy, while US Secretary of State Rubio said Sunday US to continue to try for negotiations, though cautioned Iran's behavior must change before US changes. Traffic through Strait of Hormuz slowed amid latest escalation. Iran said Monday two tankers had exploded, were immobilized attempting transfer through Strait of Hormuz (Reuters). Overall strait traffic fell to four ships on Sunday, down from eight Saturday, while traffic appeared to be at standstill Monday (Bloomberg). Brent crude jumped above $90 overnight for the first time since early June before retreating. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jul-2026 10:31	Bullish talking points for week-ended 17-Jul: June core inflation data came in cooler than expected and provided some reprieve for increasingly hawkish spin surrounding the Fed. Core CPI fell 0.02% m/m in June, below consensus for a 0.2% increase and first monthly decline since early in the pandemic in May 2020. Core PPI increased 0.2%, below consensus for a 0.4% increase. Both CPI and headline readings were down m/m on lower energy prices. Rotation > risk off amid continued momentum despite all the concern about how US markets and economy are one big bet on AI. A number of cyclical pockets of the market fared well with the broadening out trade this week, including regional banks, homebuilders, retail and transports. Defensives also outperformed with consumer staples the standout. Positive consumer/macro read-throughs from the big banks that reported this week. Multiple firms reiterated the resilience/strong spend growth dynamic (solid labor market, tax refund tailwind), while there was also some pushback against K-shaped concerns via better delinquency trends. Latter received some attention in the financial press (link). Strong capital markets and trading drove the largely positive sentiment surrounding big bank earnings, despite elevated expectations. Big banks' Q2 equity capital markets (ECM) revenue highest since 2021 with record $75B SpaceX IPO and Google's $85B plus equity financing the highlights (link). Following Q2 boom, big banks on pace to post record ~$180B in trading revenue in 2026 (link). Earnings underpinned the fundamental AI compute/capex narrative (despite this week's selloff). TSMC beat, raised both FY revenue and capex guidance, highlighted "extremely robust" AI demand and particularly talked up momentum behind agentic AI. ASML beat, raised, talked up order strength and delivered on market expectations for more color around EUV capacity expansion. Early July economic data surprised to the upside, highlighting traction for solid macro narrative. Philly Fed manufacturing jumped to 41.4 in July from 10.4 in June, well above 8.0 consensus and best print since late 2021. Both new orders and shipments saw big gains. Empire manufacturing increased by 9.9pt to +15.6, above the +8.8 consensus. Composition also strong with big increases in new orders and shipments. BlackRock had some relatively upbeat comments on private credit on its earnings call (and alts outperformed this week). Talked up strong institutional demand and said that following the idiosyncratic risk that grabbed a lot of attention earlier this year, it has actually seen stabilization. Added that it has not seen any real change in the credit quality surrounding its private investments. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jul-2026 10:30	Bearish talking points for week-ended 17-Jul: AI complex sold off as the momentum unwind accelerated this week.Technical/mechanical dynamics continued to get the bulk of the blame. However, magnitude of the unwind also led to ramp in narrative backfitting with the usual (sometimes intertwined) suspects in focus, including capex sustainability, open-source competition, memory competition (China), planned memory capacity expansion, broader AI backlash and earnings bubble. Momentum unwind could have more room to go and deliver more meaningful spillover effects. Goldman Sachs noted momentum exposure down to 77^th percentile over one-year but still at 95^th percentile over five-year period. Stretched long semi positioning highlighted in multiple surveys this week. BTIG and BofA both touched on the risk of higher index vol from a correlation uptick. Oil rallied as kinetic activity in the Middle East remained elevated and weighed on SoH transit,while the de-escalate piece of the escalate to de-escalate narrative looked more complicated. Supply shock fear headlines resurfaced this week (and more focus on elevated product pricing, including diesel), as did threats that the Houthis could close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Very high bar for Q2 earnings. This was one of the takeaways surrounding the disappointing price action in TSMC and ASML following their prints (GE Aerospace also seemed to fall into this camp). According to FactSet, the bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate increased by 3.4% over the course of Q2 vs average 5-, 10- and 20-year declines of 2.0%, 2.7% and 4.2%. IBM fell more than 25% following its negative Q2 preannouncement, which underpinned concerns about an AI-driven spending share shift from software (and also played into the AI-driven input cost surge theme). Company highlighted shift in client capex toward servers, storage and memory to lock-in supply-constrained components ahead of expected price hikes (Ericsson also flagged component cost drag on margins). Some hawkish leaning Fedspeak, even after the cooler June inflation data. Logan said higher rates now would better balance outlook and risks. Schmid said inflation remains too hot and pushed back against one-time factors. Cook noted shift in risks surrounding dual mandate and said prepared to act if no signs of inflation soon. Prior to CPI, Waller specifically warned about near-term tightening if inflation came in hot this week. ACA subsidy expiration headwinds highlighted by both HCA and Intuitive Surgical. HCA negatively preannounced for Q2 and lowered FY26 EBITDA guidance. Weaker outlook attributed to a worsening payor mix, driven by higher uninsured volumes, along with softer surgical volumes. Intuitive Surgical takeaways focused on softer US procedure growth, which company partly chalked to headwind from ACA subsidy expirations. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jul-2026 10:17	Consumer sentiment rebounds to highest since Feb-26: Preliminary July US Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 54.4 vs consensus 51.0 and June's final reading of 49.5; consumer sentiment now highest since Feb-26 amid lower gasoline prices; comes after Iran war and gasoline surge caused consumer sentiment to hit lowest on record in May. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down m/m to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, while long-run inflation expectations held steady from last month at 3.3%. Current Economic Conditions Index rose m/m to 54.9 from 47.7, while Index of Consumer Expectation increased to 54.0 from 50.7. Report highlighted 20% gains in buying conditions for durables and year-ahead business expectations; increase was broad-based across demographic groups, though sentiment remains 12% below year-ago levels; notably, most responses were collected before renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and the recent rebound in gasoline prices; WTI crude is now up roughly 15% since Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over on 7-Jul. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jul-2026 08:51	June housing starts beat; June import price index posts surprise gain: Housing starts increased 19.0% m/m in June to 1.427M vs consensus 1.310M and May's revised 1.199M (was 1.177M); June's m/m gain is largest since May-23; single-family housing starts were at a rate of 895K, down 0.2% from May's 897K. Building permits fell 3.0% m/m to 1.367M vs consensus 1.406M and May's revised 1.410M (was 1.413M); single-family authorizations of 871K, down 2.4% from May's 892K. Elsewhere in data this morning, June Import Price Index rose 0.3% m/m vs consensus for a 1.5% decline and May's 1.7% gain; import prices increased 7.1% y/y, the largest annual rise since Aug-22. June Export Price Index fell 0.6% m/m vs consensus for a 0.4% decline and May's 1.2% increase; first monthly decline since May-25, as lower nonagricultural export prices more than offset gains in agricultural exports. Meanwhile, June US Industrial Production up 0.1% m/m vs consensus for a 0.2% gain and May's unrevised 0.1% increase; June Capacity Utilization of 76.1% vs consensus 76.2% and May's revised 76.1% (was 76.2%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jul-2026 07:35	Friday morning check-in: Backfitting narratives to momentum selloff: Technical dynamics continue to get bulk of blame for momentum unwind, though extent of move has triggered a more recent pickup in narrative backfitting. Usual (sometimes intertwined) suspects in play. These include capex sustainability, earnings bubbles, open-source competition, China DRAM competition, memory capacity expansion plans and broader AI backlash (data centers in focus this week). Moonshot grabs the AI headlines: Open-source model competition from China one of the biggest themes in AI with a lot of moving pieces (frontier lab spending, broader compute demand, corporate costs, geopolitics). Latest development has revolved around Moonshot's new 2.8T parameter Kimi K3 model, which in early testing has rivaled the performance of the leading offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI (Axios, FT ). The de-escalate piece of the escalate to de-escalate narrative is missing: Latest Middle East headlines have focused on US attacks to dampen Iran's ability to exert leverage over SoH transit (targeting bridges around port city of Bandar Abbas to cut supply lines). Also more discussion about potential for US to expand attacks to Iranian infrastructure. Big concern for oil (as supply shock headlines resurface) is whether this would be met by effort by Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Netflix pressured following earnings as engagement concerns linger: Netflix Q2 results seen as largely in line, though some scrutiny on UCAN revenue growth deceleration. Light Q3 revenue guidance one of the widely cited overhangs. While 1H engagement looked better than expected, engagement concerns not going away and company said it would reduce frequency of engagement disclosures. More positive commentary revolved around track record on content, along with product improvements. PC brands looking to CXMT for memory: Memory competition from China back in the headlines. Ahead of widely anticipated IPO from CXMT, Digitimes reported PC brands such as Dell, HP and Lenovo (Apple as well) all rushing to secure memory from the company, with orders extending to end-2027. Noted that following testing and lobbying from Apple, US may not add CXMT to its entity list, as had previously been expected (they could use for products sold in China). ACA subsidy expiration also an issue for Intuitive Surgical: Intuitive Surgical under pressure despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 results. Takeaways focused on ~200 bp sequential deceleration in US procedure growth, which company partly chalked to headwind from ACA subsidy expirations. Also some disappointment it left FY26 procedure growth guidance unchanged. HCA also flagged the ACA issue in its negative Q2 preannouncement this week. PayPal board believes takeout proposal undervalues company: PayPal up over 20% this week following report Stripe and Advent offered to acquire company for $53B. Latest report from Reuters (which broke the story) noted board believes proposal undervalues company and faces regulatory and financing stumbling blocks. Street takeaways earlier in the week noted board may push for a higher premium, though also highlighted skepticism about a bidding war. Supply from corporates and insiders: Supply was once again flagged as a potential headwind for broader risk sentiment earlier this week (link). Supply deluge also evident in the strong ECM results reported by the big banks this week. Another pocket of supply in focus today. According to Bloomberg, corporate insiders selling shares at fastest pace in more than 20 years. Noted they sold $77.6B in 1H, up 20% from year-earlier period. Quiet macro, busier micro week on tap: Week of 20-Jul looks quiet on the macro front. Fed in its blackout period ahead of a 29-Jul policy decision. Widely seen on hold following cooler inflation prints this week. Not much on the economic calendar with the July flash PMIs on Friday the highlights. Earnings activity picks up next week with Google, Tesla, GE Vernova, IBM, Texas Instruments, Intel, SAP, ServiceNow and United Rentals among the notable reporters. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 15:35	Fed's Logan, Schmid latest to offer hawkish takeaways: Speaking in Houston, Dallas Fed President Logan (voter) urged "modestly" higher rates, saying current inflation remains too high to meet the Fed's 2% target (speech, CNBC). Logan noted that she believe higher rates now would better balance outlook and risks to dual mandate. Also argued one month of relief (June CPI, PPI) is not enough, inflation still doesn't appear headed sustainably back to 2%. Also argued entrenched inflation would require sharper increases, and that modest policy tightening now is preferable to sharper hikes later. However, did not offer if she would push for hike in July meeting or how many hikes may ultimately be needed. Speaking in Grand Island, Nebraska, Kansas City Fed's Schmid (non-voter) said inflation remains too hot. Also noted breadth of inflation goes beyond energy, warned that despite better June data, it is insufficient to signal a lasting trend (speech, Bloomberg). Schmid also offered upbeat assessment of the economy, saying the labor market in balance, growth remains resilient, though strong demand remains key upward pressure on inflation. Markets currently pricing just a ~10% chance of a hike at the 29-Jul FOMC meeting, and 26 bp of hikes through year-end, down from 40 bp before this week's cooler inflation data. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 15:09	Afternoon Headlines: AI: Google months behind schedule on Gemini 3.5 Pro launch as it tries to improve its capabilities (Bloomberg) Intel to integrate advanced, Gemini-powered generative AI across its global workforce (link) Nvidia-backed Fireworks, which runs open-source AI models for software developers, raises $1.5B at $17.5B valuation (CNBC) DeepSeek valued at $51.8B in first external fundraising, filing suggests (US News) China's Moonshot set to release 2-3T parameter Kimi K3 model, expected to exceed performance of Anthropic's Opus 4.8 (FT) Corporate: Apple preparing to introduce biggest overhaul to iPad mini in half a decade (Bloomberg) Verizon to sell 274 company-owned retail locations and cut about 500 corporate jobs (Reuters) Boeing expected to complete certification process for three planes, including 737 Max 7 (Bloomberg) Headcounts at Wall Street banks fell by more than 10K in Q2, according to quarterly earnings data (Bloomberg) Trump Media & Technology launching paid API feed for financial services companies (Axios) Kalshi to offer wagers on outcomes of biotech clinical trials, regulatory decisions (Bloomberg) Visa unveils platform that allows financial firms to issue, move and manage stablecoins (CoinDesk) GameStop CEO says he is 'coming for eBay one way or another' (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed's Logan calls for modestly higher interest rates due to high inflation (Quartz) Fed's Schmid says inflation is too hot and has been high for too long (Financial Post) Markets: Bond traders exit positions bought in anticipation of at least one Fed rate hike this year (Bloomberg) SpaceX short sellers sitting on $8.7B paper profit since June IPO (Reuters) SpaceX short interest rises to 29% of publicly tradeable float, up from ~5-7% three weeks ago (CNBC) Iran war: Iran tells Yemen's Houthis to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure (Reuters) Pakistan fears being pulled into widening US-Iran conflict after Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia (Reuters) Powerful explosions reportedly occurred in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, though Dubai denies report (Jerusalem Post) Energy: US diesel futures up 20% since beginning of last week on supply concerns (link) Chevron to join investor consortium considering construction of Iraqi pipeline to dampen SoH reliance (link) EU unveils plan to double electrification rate by 2040, cut use of oil & gas (Oilprice.com) US Economy: Grocery unit sales down as shoppers cut back, outweighing food price increases (CNBC) Builder sentiment tied for lowest this year, index holds below 40 for longest stretch since 2012 (Bloomberg) US business inventories increased moderately in May amid continued strength in sales (Reuters) US mortgage rates rise to the highest level in almost a year at 6.55% (Bloomberg) Global economy: IMF warns Burnham government in UK cannot afford to boost public spending given challenging budget outlook (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, BA, CVX, DJT, EBAY, GME, GOOGL, INTC, NVDA, SPCX, V, VZ, +ANTHROPIC, +DEEPSEEK...(more)	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 12:44	Thursday midday check-in: Momentum weakness, cyclical strength: Bulk of the AI trade lagging with semis/memory/storage under pressure again. Rotation > risk off with a number of cyclical pockets of the market outperforming, including retail, builders, regional banks and transports. Mag 7 had been a recent rotational beneficiary but mixed today. Cloud software and China tech outperforming again. Energy and defensives also seeing good gains. Retail sales largely in line: Retail sales increased 0.2% m/m in June, in line with expectations. As expected, gasoline sales weighed on the headline reading. Control group sales increased 0.5%, also largely in line, while April and May revised up. Nonstore retailers and sporting goods stores standouts. Strength in former may fit with Prime Day tailwind highlighted in previews. Flat restaurant sales mentioned as sign World Cup may not have had much impact. Strongest Philly Fed since 2021: Philly Fed manufacturing jumped to 41.4 in July from 10.4 in June, well above 8.0 consensus and best print since late 2021. Both new orders and shipments saw big gains and employment highest since December. However, both price components moved higher. Philly Fed manufacturing follows Empire manufacturing from earlier this week in supporting a spillover of the solid macro backdrop narrative into July. Subdued claims, Manpower talks SMB reengagement: Initial claims fell to 208K in w/e 11-Jul from 219K in prior week. Lowest since early May, while four-week moving average fell to lowest since late May. In terms of labor market read-throughs from corporate commentary, Manpower said today it is seeing signs of convenience improving with smaller and up to middle sized clients starting to reengage. Healthcare reporters outperform: UnitedHealth an outperformer following its beat and raise with takeaways focused on Medicare Advantage and Optum Health outperformance, along with better-than-feared cost trend (still elevated) in Medicare Advantage. Abbott Laboratories a big gainer following its beat and raise. Company noted industry-wide procedure volumes in the US remain robust. GE Aerospace beats and raises but stock lags: GE Aerospace a high-profile laggard despite its beat and raise and largely upbeat early takeaways. Conference call highlighted continued robust services demand and far more resilient demand than anticipated in the face of geopolitical/macro volatility. Deceleration in revenue/orders growth against high valuation mentioned as a potential overhang. Elevated expectations also flagged (broader Q2 earnings season issue). Netflix earnings focus will be on engagement: Netflix the notable reporter after the close today. Previews flagged expectations for a largely in-line print and guide. Bulk of the discussion revolved around engagement trends. Recent report discussed company concerns about signs of a decline in engagement and potential response measures, including live channels and bundle partnerships. Some sell-side firms expressed concern about such moves. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 08:50	June retail sales mostly in line; May revised slightly higher: Headline June retail sales increased 0.2% m/m vs consensus for 0.2% increase and May's 1.0% gain (revised from +0.9%); June retail sales ex-autos down 0.2% m/m vs consensus for 0.1% decline and May's 1.0% gain (revised from +0.8%); Control group sales (which feed into GDP) up 0.5% vs consensus for 0.4% increase and May's 0.8% rise (revised from +0.7%) Declines in sales seen in gas stations, health/personal care stores, miscellaneous stores, clothing/accessories stores, and food/beverage stores; gains seen in online stores, cars/parts dealers, sporting goods/hobby stores, electronics/appliances stores, building materials/garden stores, general merchandise stores, and restaurants/bars; furniture/home store sales were flat. Report largely in line with economist previews, with falling gasoline prices weighing on headline sales while stronger motor vehicle spending and Prime Day-related online sales provided an offset. Follows a somewhat mixed read on consumer spending yesterday with Fed's Beige Book noting slight rise in consumer spending despite higher fuel prices prompting some consumers to trade down, while BofA CEO said affordability pressures remain but resilient consumer spending continues to underpin economic growth. (Axios). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 08:44	Initial claims subdued, Philly Fed index highest since late 2021: Initial jobless claims for the week to 11-Jul of 208K below consensus 219K and down from last week's upwardly revised 216K (was 215K). Also marks lowest since week to 2-May. Four week moving average of 214.25K down 4.75K w/w, lowest since 23-May. Continuing claims for the week to 4-Jul of 1805K also below consensus 1815K and prior upwardly revised print of 1821K (was 1814K). However, four-week average up 1.25K to 1,811K, tied for highest since late March. July Philly Fed Index of 41.4 well ahead of consensus 8.0 and prior 10.4, and highest print since Nov-21. Report said 53% of firms reported increases in activity, up from 32% in June, while new orders up 10 points to 37, highest since Nov-21, shipments up 19 points to 33.7, highest since April. Employment index up two points to 10, highest since December. However, prices paid up 0.7 points to 53.9, while prices received up seven points to 27.4. July NAHB builder sentiment (10 ET) down two points m/m to 34, a surprise decline vs consensus for uptick to 37 (May revised up one point to 36). Current sales index down one point to 37, futures sales index down two points to 43, traffic index down two points to 23. June pending home sales index fell 5.4% m/m, a bigger drop than -0.2% m/m consensus and biggest decline since December. NAR economists blamed highest mortgage rates in nearly a year, record-high median prices. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 07:47	Thursday morning check-in: More momentum unwind: Momentum (semi, memory) weakness in focus again following a nearly 6.5% decline in South Korea's Kospi index overnight. Similar to ASML on Wednesday, no help from beat and raise (and higher capex guidance) out of TSMC today. There have been various attempts to backfit select AI headlines to the momentum unwind narrative, but technical/mechanical dynamics (including seasonality) continue to get the bulk of the blame. AI tailwind drives TSMC guidance higher: TSMC posted strong Q2 results, raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to "slightly above" 40% from "over" 30% and raised capex outlook to $60-64B from ~$56B. Highlighted "extremely robust" AI demand and particularly talked up momentum behind agentic AI. However, some focus on elevated expectations, 2nm ramp impact on GM, cost inflation and more cautious commentary around non-AI segments. More strikes and more threats but diplomatic off-ramp still consensus: Kinetic activity in Middle East remains elevated. Reports noted Trump considering expanding military operations. Iran, which continues to focus on SoH control, has threatened to respond to US escalation by targeting regional infrastructure. However, some kind of diplomatic off-ramp still seems to be consensus. Iran released an American citizen it held for more than a year in a move Trump deemed gesture of goodwill. Fuel a drag on United guide but demand strong: United Airlines Q2 results ahead though it guided Q3 and FY26 EPS below the Street to reflect headwind from recent jump in oil. However, takeaways noted upside if fuel returns to early-July levels. Highlighted guidance for 2H TRASM to exceed the 12.1% seen in Q2 on continued demand strength. Also talked up pricing power with United expected to recover 80-90% of fuel price increases in Q3 and 100% in Q4. Retail sales should fit with consumer resilience theme: Headline retail sales expected to increase 0.3% following a 0.9% increase in May. Core group expected up 0.4% following a 0.7% gain. Lower gas prices a headline drag but could help on the affordability front. Spending data widely cited as a positive read-through (and big banks were positive on consumer spending in earnings this week). Prime Day mentioned as a potential tailwind. Some debate about World Cup impact. South Korea tightens restrictions on leveraged ETFs amid volatility: South Korea to temporarily ban new listings of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded products. Ban will remain in effect until market stabilizes. Proliferation of leveraged ETFs a widely discussed factor when it comes to ramp in momentum volatility, where Kospi index has been ground zero. Goldman Sachs said earlier this week AUM of Korea-focused leveraged ETFs has declined 46% to $27B since 22-Jun peak. Supply shock warnings resurface: Extended ramp in kinetic activity in the Middle East and related SoH transit constraints have led to a fresh wave of supply shock warnings. FT latest to discuss this dynamic. Starting point flagged as the big differentiator this time around given depleted global inventories, expected China restocking needs, still elevated product/distillate pricing and impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russia. Capital markets and trading dominate bank earnings headlines: Big takeaway from this week's flurry of bank earnings has revolved around strength in capital markets and trading. Big banks' Q2 equity capital markets (ECM) revenue highest since 2021 with record $75B SpaceX IPO and Google's $85B plus equity financing the highlights (link). Following Q2 boom, big banks on pace to post record ~$180B in trading revenue in 2026 (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jul-2026 06:25	US appears to be widening its Iran strikes, but diplomacy remains a possibility: The US continues to launch strikes aimed at degrading Iran's ability to pressure traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (CENTCOM). Iran again launched multiple missile and drone attacks on US regional allies and threatened that all infrastructure in the region would be "crushed" should the US begin striking its bridges and power plants; added America interfering with the SoH is "Iran's invincible red line" (AP). At the same time, some note of widened scope for American attacks, including areas well to the north of the SoH. AP noted Tehran was targeted for the first time in the current round of escalation as well as several northern provinces. The US also struck an Iranian tanker well outside the SoH and bound for Kharg Island as it began to enforce the reestablished blockade (Bloomberg). This comes amid more reports Trump has been considering expanding military operations against Iran (link). Reuters also reported yesterday, citing US officials, that recent attacks have been targeting Iranian military resources the US would want to destroy before it conducts more complex operations. Amid the escalation, there have been some more positive signs about potential diplomacy. Yesterday Iran released a woman with dual Iranian and American citizenship who had been held on espionage charges, which Trump characterized as an act of goodwill (NY Times). Tehran's lead negotiator Ghalibaf today defended negotiation as a complement to military efforts (Bloomberg). Israel and Lebanon have been having productive discussions around a withdrawal agreement (AP). And recall Trump said yesterday morning he had received a call from Tehran saying they want to meet. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 15:04	Afternoon Headlines: Central banks: Fed Chair Warsh says higher prices driven by AI not necessarily inflationary (Bloomberg) Fed's Williams says inflation has peaked and should edge lower, rates are 'well positioned' (CNBC) Fed Governor Cook says she is "prepared to act" unless there are signs of disinflation soon (Reuters, speech) Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2.25%, says Canadian economy showing signs of improvement (Bloomberg) Latest Fed Beige Book shows continued economic expansion, stable employment, elevated prices (link) AI: Anthropic seeking investor meeting in coming weeks ahead of potential October IPO (Bloomberg) Apple considering acquiring AI chipmaker, found M2 Ultra insufficient for advanced AI (The Information) ASML is planning to increase prices for its chipmaking equipment despite pushback from TSMC (The Information) Trump says datacenters are tremendous wins for states, says NY's ban was a "terrible decision" (Truth Social) Iran conflict: US carried out fresh new wave of strikes on Iran's coastal defense systems and missile sites (Reuters) Some shippers opting not to transit Hormuz under US guidance amid deteriorating security conditions (Reuters) Energy: Nearly 135M barrels of Russian crude oil are currently stranded at sea due Ukraine's energy targeting (Oilprice.com) Trump administration advancing plans to extend a Jones Act waiver to help domestic energy prices (Bloomberg) Economy: BofA CEO says consumer spending continues to underpin growth despite affordability concerns (Axios) Container volumes surging as US imports accelerate amid economic uncertainties (Bloomberg) Higher prices may be a long-lasting side effect of the US-Iran war (NY Times) Corporate: FCC could take action against Disney as soon as next month, could rule "The View" is not a bona fide news show (Bloomberg) New millionaires boosted by latest IPOs funneled more than $74B into Morgan Stanley's wealth management division (FT) UK: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood set to become Britan's next chancellor in Burnham government (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, ASML, DIS, MS, TSM, +ANTHROPIC...(more)	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 14:26	Status quo Fedspeak as officials continue to note concern around upside inflation risks: Not much new in Chair Warsh's appearance before Senate Banking Committee. Said AI is impacting demand more quickly than supply, and expects AI to push up observed price levels over next year, though whether AI causes inflation will depend on the Fed (Bloomberg). In a speech in New York, NY Fed's Williams said there are encouraging signs inflation has peaked, and should decline in the coming quarters to around 3.25% by year-end. However, said inflation remains too high, though policy well-positioned to eventually achieve 2% target. Also discussed two-sided risks to AI, noting the duration of the imbalance between supply and demand is highly uncertain, though AI spend should boost productivity over time. Fed Governor Cook said in a speech that she believe the risks to the dual mandate have shifted away from employment, and is committed to returning inflation to 2% target soon. Also said longer-run inflation expectations remain anchored, though she is prepared to act if there are no signs of disinflation soon. St. Louis Fed's Musalem (non-voter) set to speak after the close. Latest Fedspeak continues to reflect a Fed that remains somewhat split between those who are calling for or are open to hikes and less hawkish members who prefer to hold. However, market pricing just 23 bp of hikes through year-end after latest cooler inflation data (June CPI, PPI), down from ~40 bp on Tuesday after latest escalation of Iran tensions. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 14:18	Latest Fed Beige Book shows continued economic expansion, stable employment, elevated prices: Latest Fed Beige Book largely in line with recent trends/narratives. Economy continues to expand at slight to moderate pace. Consumer spending resilient despite price sensitivity, labor markets stable, and prices still elevated with mixed inflation expectations. Economic activity: increased at a slight to moderate pace in 11 of 12 Fed Districts. Consumer spending rose slightly, though higher prices (especially fuel) prompted some trading down to cheaper options. Manufacturing was supported by data center, machinery, and defense demand. Contacts expect continued economic expansion but cited uncertainty around fuel costs. Employment: increased modestly overall with five Districts showing gains in employment, while seven Districts experienced little to no change. Hiring improved across manufacturing, construction, and retail. Wage growth remained modest to moderate amid continued competition for workers. Prices: rose moderately overall, with price growth steady to slower across all Districts. Higher energy, transportation, raw material costs, and tariffs lifted input prices. A few Districts said contacts saw greater price sensitivity among their customers. Contacts were mixed on inflation outlook, with some expecting easing price pressures as fuel costs come down. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 12:36	Wednesday midday check-in: Momentum weakness despite positive ASML takeaways: Momentum under pressure despite positive takeaways for semi space from ASML beat and raise, order commentary and incremental color on capacity expansion plans. No notable catalyst for the weakness with memory/storage and semis the big decliners. Very elevated momentum vol as of late largely chalked up to mechanical dynamics. Long global semis again flagged as most crowded trade in July BofA FMS. Mag 7, software, select cyclicals outperform: Mag 7 and software (which came under some scrutiny with IBM warning yesterday) among the notable beneficiaries of what seems to be another mechanical momentum unwind. Some cyclical pockets of the market have also fared well today, including banks, consumer-facing names and builders. Banks helped by positive earnings takeaways. Lower rate backdrop (and positive consumer signaling from the banks) another area of focus. Trump says Iran wants to make a deal: Oil lower after extending recent rally earlier in the session. Kinetic activity in the Middle East still elevated and SoH transit stalled. However, diplomatic off-ramp hopes seemingly kept in play by latest Trump comments this morning about Iran calling today wanting to make a deal. Trump recently warned of stepped up attacks, including on Iranian infrastructure, if Tehran did not return to the negotiating table. Another cooler June inflation print: June PPI second straight cooler inflation print this week. Headline PPI fell 0.3% m/m in June vs consensus for a flat print, while core PPI increased 0.2%, below consensus for a 0.4% increase. May growth rates also revised down. Following the release, multiple firms took down their June core PCE estimates. Now looking for a 0.17-0.18% increase, which would put the y/y rate of growth at 3.3%. AI capex boom and higher prices: AI capex boom as a driver of higher prices in focus again. The Information reported ASML plans to boost prices to help margins and fund capacity expansions despite pushback from its largest customer, TSMC. Yesterday, IBM fell 25%+ following a negative preannouncement that highlighted a shift in customer spending to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. Capital markets strength dominates bank earnings: While widely previewed, capital markets strength has been the big takeaway from the flurry of big bank earnings this week. Research note from Wells Fargo today discussed the tailwind for capital markets from the AI capex boom. Noted capital markets are on track for a record 2026 with 25% y/y growth. Empire manufacturing beats, composition strong: Empire manufacturing supportive of a continuation of the solid macro backdrop narrative into July. Headline reading increased by 9.9pt to +15.6, above the +8.8 consensus. Composition strong with big increases in new orders and shipments, while employment also improved. In addition, both of the prices paid components declined. Retail sales on tap for Thursday: Busy stretch of high-profile macro continues Thursday with June retail sales. Headline retail sales expected to increase 0.3% following a 0.9% increase in May. Core group expected up 0.4% following a 0.7% gain. Lower gas prices a headline drag but could help on the affordability front. Spending data widely cited as a positive read-through. Prime Day mentioned as a potential tailwind. Some debate about World Cup impact. BlackRock has positive comments on private credit: Alts among the better performers today. On its Q2 call, BlackRock talked up strong institutional demand and said that following the idiosyncratic risk that grabbed a lot of attention earlier this year, it has actually seen stabilization. Added that it has not seen any real change in the credit quality surrounding its private investments. Noted that it expects funding to continue to accelerate. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 11:09	StreetAccount Event Preview: June retail sales June retail sales out Thursday (16-Jul, 8:30 ET). Headline retail sales consensus of 0.3% would be a deceleration from May 0.9% print. Retail sales ex-autos expected to come in flat m/m, down from prior 0.8%. Control group sales (which feed into GDP) expected to rise 0.4% m/m, down from 0.72% pace in May. Some economist previews noted headline sales headwind from falling gas prices, though likely offset by increased spending elsewhere. JPMorgan estimated 5.5% decline in gasoline station sales (reversing some of the 21% increase in past three months) though upside in motor vehicle dealer and parts on 2.8% jump in unit auto sales. BofA sees upside risk in both ex-autos and control group sales, citing Prime Day, gas price tailwind, and World Cup-linked spend in travel and leisure categories. JPMorgan estimated solid control group sales, noting card data show solid food services spend, though building material sales, electronics/appliances likely to extend recent weakness. However, JPMorgan played down World Cup tailwind, noting FIFA estimate of $6.4B in tourism spend likely concentrated in categories not included in retail sales (hotels, transportation, event sites). Citi also cautioned overall consumer spend has been slowing on a six-month moving average as consumption growth has slowed in recent quarters. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 08:54	June PPI cooler than expected; July Empire State Index beats with employment higher, prices lower: June core PPI increased 0.2% m/m (vs consensus 0.4%, May's revised 0.1%); annualized core at 4.7% (vs consensus 5.2%, May's revised 4.6%); headline PPI declined 0.3% m/m (vs consensus 0.0%, May's revised 0.6%), coolest m/m headline since Apr-25; annualized headline at 5.5% (vs consensus 6.4%, May's revised 6.0%). Final demand goods prices fell 1.4% in June, largest monthly decline since July-22, driven by a 6.4% drop in energy prices; Final demand services prices rose 0.2% in June, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May; increase was driven by a 0.4% rise in trade services margins. Regarding items that flow into PCE, portfolio management up 0.5% (vs May's +4.8%), airline passenger services down 0.4% (vs May's +2.8%), hospital outpatient care down 0.2% (vs May's +0.1%), physician care up 0.1% (vs May's 0.0%). Elsewhere, July Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at +15.6 (vs consensus +8.8, June's +5.7); new orders jumped m/m to +22.2 from +3.5; shipments up to +24.4 from +8.6, a four-year high. Number of employees rose to +11.4 from +9.6, highest since Dec-22; average employee workweek fell to +2.8 from +5.1; prices paid declined to +52.3 from +61.0, while prices received fell to +27.6 from +31.4. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 07:53	Wednesday morning check-in: ASML beats, raises, talks strong demand and capacity expansion: ASML another bright spot for the AI semi capex demand narrative. Q2 results ahead, company raised guidance and talked up order strength (close to receiving all EUV orders it needs in 2027 and has already received a large number of 2028 orders). Takeaways largely focused on plans to add ~30% EUV capacity in both 2027 and 2028. That would get 2028 to ~110 tools, in line with some of the more bullish buyside estimates. PayPal reportedly gets $53B+ takeover offer: Mega-deal activity in focus again with Reuters report that payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International made a joint offer to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share in a deal that would value the company at $53B+. Noted offer, which represents a ~28% premium to Tuesday's close, is backed by ~$50B in committed financing from banks. Trump threatens more strikes unless Iran returns to negotiating table: Kinetic activity in the Middle East remains elevated with SoH still the key sticking point. President Trump told Fox News US could attack Iranian power plants and bridges next if Tehran does not return to negotiating table. While oil up over 15% over last ten days or so, broader spillover effects fairly limited. Market seems to expect some kind of diplomatic off-ramp, while also some focus on stability of regional energy infrastructure. South Korea's Kospi rallies 6%+ overnight: South Korea ground zero for elevated momentum volatility (driven by largely technical dynamics). Kospi jumped 6.2% on Wednesday (it was down nearly 9% on Monday). JPMorgan highlighted support from foreign and institutional demand while domestic retail investors remain sellers. Goldman Sachs noted that as of 13-Jul, 1.2M leveraged retail accounts across Korean market triggered margin calls. Positive consumer spin surrounding bank earnings: The five big banks that reported on Tuesday all beat expectations. Capital markets/trading the big tailwind. Also some focus on positive commentary surrounding the US consumer. Multiple firms reiterated the resilience/strong spend growth dynamic (labor market, tax refunds), while there was also some pushback against K-shaped concerns via better delinquency trends. Latter received some attention in the financial press (link). Revisiting CPI: Unexpected core CPI decline offered some meaningful pushback for recent pickup in July Fed tightening expectations. Probability of a July rate hike fell to 16% from 43% before the release. However, Fed Chair Warsh stressed it is just one data point, UBS flagged declines in a number of volatile components that could be reversed and BofA, which touched on a similar dynamic, noted CPI likely to return to 0.2-0.3% trend in coming months. Supply headwinds: Supply continues to be flagged as a potential headwind for broader risk sentiment (link). Both equity and debt issuance have come under scrutiny, including just last week as hyperscaler debt spreads (and Treasuries) were hit by the unexpected $25B bond sale from Amazon. However, Street has also talked up offsets, including $1T+ of gross buybacks and potential for record M&A this year. China Q2 GDP softer than expected, June activity data mostly better: China GDP expanded 4.3% y/y in Q2, below 4.5% consensus and official growth target range of 4.5-5.0% for 2026. Weakest since late 2022. June activity data looked better as industrial production expanded 5.3% y/y vs the 4.6% consensus (helped by EVs, ICs and robots), while retail sales increased 1.0% against expectations for 0.1% decline. However, FAI fell a worse-than-expected 5.7% YTD. June credit data also disappointed. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jul-2026 06:16	Trump threatens to continue strikes until Tehran returns to the negotiating table: The US mounted a fourth straight night of attacks against Iranian targets overnight while Iran continued hitting US regional allies, including launching a heavy wave of strikes against Kuwait (Bloomberg). Recall Trump told Fox News yesterday the US would continue to hit Iran hard (citing power plants and bridges as possible targets) "unless they get to the table and negotiate." Axios also reported on a White House meeting yesterday to discuss widening the scope of US strikes. The issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains front and center. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to shut all export corridors for Mideast energy, saying the should be either "shared by all, or denied to all" (Reuters, AP). Continues Tehran's signaling it could call on its Houthi proxies in Yemen to attack shipping in the Red Sea (Reuters). Amid the uncertainties, only a handful of ships attempted the SoH passage yesterday (Bloomberg). Despite tensions ratcheting higher, the market is not evincing that much concern; Treasury yields are moving a bit higher (after a post-CPI slide yesterday) and oil is fairly stable after its recent gains. Investors have seen multiple escalation/de-escalation rounds and there seems to be a sense that some statement about renewed negotiations could come and break the tension, though longer-term it remains unclear where compromise can be found between the US and Iranian positions on the SoH. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 15:09	Afternoon Headlines: Corporate: IBM says corporate clients shifted to buying compute infrastructure from elsewhere, offers particularly weak Q2 preliminary results (FT) Uber reportedly in advanced talks with Delivery Hero on buyout; aims to reach deal as soon as this week (Bloomberg) Lucid considering going private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, restructuring adviser AlixPartners to deliver findings to board (Bloomberg) Paramount is still planning on finalizing merger with Warner Bros by end of summer despite lawsuit (CNBC) Boeing says it delivered 64 jetliners in June, highest first-half deliveries since 2018 (CNBC) Banks continue to reap strong fees from AI-related capital raises and loans (Reuters) Verizon to announce another wave of job cuts this week as new CEO seeks to reduce costs (link) Biogen's Alzheimer drug Diranersen fails to show clear clinical superiority over existing Alzheimer's therapies (Bloomberg) Thomson Reuters to sell a 51% stake in its legal and tax publishing business to KKR (Bloomberg) AI: Freely available AI models are increasingly powering AI workloads due to their lower cost, customizability, and flexibility (TechCrunch) DeepSeek reportedly in talks to raise $1.5B at $71B valuation, IPO in 2027 (TechCrunch) Shipments of Nvidia's H200 chips to China have restarted, though only "very few" to start (CNBC) Nvidia and Mitsubishi Heavy considering a collaboration on cooling and energy systems for data centers (Nikkei) JPMorgan urging staff to avoid using AI for simple tasks amid surging costs (Bloomberg) Apple in talks with PrismML, a startup that can shrink AI models to run directly on iPhone (CNBC) Central banks: Fed Chair Warsh says Fed will be resolute in effort to bring down inflation (FT) Fed's Barr says there has been little evidence of broad AI-driven job displacement (link) Fed's Goolsbee says June CPI was "surprisingly good", cautioned against reading into single report too much (link) July rate hike odds plummet to ~10% after much cooler June CPI report (Reuters) European Commission to propose lowering capital requirements for some banks following similar US, UK moves (FT) Iran war: Trump says he will abandon 20% Strait of Hormuz fee, to replace with trade deals (FT) US carries out more strikes on Iran Tuesday afternoon; Iran fires at Bahrain and Jordan (ABC) Energy: US gasoline prices increase for the first time since May on Iran war resumption (Oilprice.com) US and European fuel markets are signaling record tightness as Middle East tensions escalate (Bloomberg) Geopolitics: Ukraine says it has hit more than 110 Russian vessels over nine days in Sea of Azov (FT) Kremlin views Sen. Lindsey Graham's death as removing one of Washington's most influential Russia hawks (Washington Post) Washington: House Speaker Johnson wants budget resolution this week as White House pushes for reconciliation package (Politico) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, BA, BIIB, IBM, JPM, KKR, LCID, NVDA, PSKY, TRI, UBER, VZ, +DEEPSEEK...(more)	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 14:30	Mixed profit trends, resilient consumer, AI tailwinds among takeaways from latest bank earnings: Latest batch of bank results mostly well received, with the five largest US banks that all reported today collectively earning over $49B, or 39% increase y/y (link, NY Times). Profit surge tabbed to areas including IPOs, M&A, trading activity, and demand for AI financing. However, Street takeaways also noted high bar, lack of NII upside, select expense, deposit cost overhangs. Profit outlook also mixed, with Street disappointed by no ROTCE raise from Citi but positive on JPM's 22% ROTCE despite higher investments. In earnings calls, executives highlighted strong consumer spending, with BofA noting 1H consumer spend up 5% y/y, accelerating to 6% in Q2. JPMorgan highlighted broad-based spend, saying data do not support K-shaped narrative. Credit quality broadly seen as stable. Citi noted consumer credit card performance better than expected, Wells Fargo noting NCOs down 10 bp y/y. However, JPM noted very mild deterioration in credit underwriting standards in market, while Wells Fargo flagged substantial capital deployed into risky wholesale assets like AI data center construction. JPMorgan highlighted strong labor market, while Wells Fargo said strong wage growth, employment have counteracted inflationary pressures on consumer. On AI investments, Goldman Sachs said AI investment cycle expanding capital needs beyond technology, said it is in very early innings of significant multi-year cycle. BofA also said capital raising, financing for AI infrastructure boosting global investment banking revenues. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: BAC, C, GS, JPM, WFC	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 13:34	Warsh asserts Fed's independence in first day of congressional testimony: Fed Chair Warsh delivered his first day of semiannual testimony to Congress today, appearing before the House Financial Services Committee (he will speak to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow at 10am Eastern). In his prepared remarks, Warsh reaffirmed policymakers' commitment to restoring price stability. He noted the challenges the Fed faces evaluating inflationary and labor-market impacts from the rapid pace of AI investment. He stressed the need to take a fresh look at the Fed's current practices and again outlined his task-force approach. In his testimony, Warsh parried multiple questions about Fed independence by stressing the value of an independent central banks and asserting he would pursue its statutory mandate; pressed on how he would react if personally challenged by Trump, Warsh said "I will do my job." As expected (and as at the ECB's recent Sintra conference), Warsh provided little that could be considered policy guidance. Asked about today's softer-than-expected June CPI report, Warsh said he is not going to say "mission accomplished" but still sees plenty of work to do. Also pushed back against notion that the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean CPI is his preferred inflation gauge. Disagreed with the premise that Fed's dual mandate presents a "cruel choice" between price stability and jobs. On AI, said it is a supply shock that is happening faster than he would have projected. On the balance sheet, says he is not looking to return to pre-GFC levels but believes there is an equilibrium point below the current level. On Fed communications, said his preference is to be more circumspect (while not "hiding the ball"), adding he has found his colleagues open-minded toward a more deliberate approach. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 12:33	Tuesday midday check-in: Lots of moving pieces: Lots of moving pieces in focus today. June CPI came in cooler than expected and has helped drive a rate rally. All the big banks beat on earnings but expectations elevated and price action mixed. Momentum a standout after another unwind on Monday largely chalked up to technical factors. Oil higher again on elevated Middle East tensions but spillover still largely contained. June CPI comes in cooler, rates rally: Core CPI fell 0.02% m/m in June, below consensus for a 0.2% increase. First monthly decline since 2017. Takeaways highlighted fairly broad-based weakness, renewed slowdown in shelter, signs of tariff roll off, downward pressure from residual seasonality and declines in more volatile components such as lodging away from home, transportation services and communication services (which could be reversed). Rate rally: Cooler CPI print triggered a big rate reprieve following hawkish Waller comments on Monday that had pushed probability of July rate hike near 50%. Waller said Fed would need to consider tightening in near term if it gets another hot reading on core inflation this week. Market now pricing in ~30 bp worth of tightening this year, down from over 40 bp prior to this morning's release. Mixed takeaways from busy day of bank earnings: Bank reporters volatile following a busy morning of earnings. Goldman Sachs best performer on strength in both capital markets and AWM. JPMorgan saw some initial scrutiny surrounding higher expense guidance but also raised core NII guidance. BofA guided NII to higher end of prior range. Wells Fargo a laggard with focus on higher deposit costs. Citi another laggard with beat not accompanied by higher ROTCE guide. Oil higher but spillover still largely contained: Oil helped again by elevated kinetic activity in the Middle East. However, off best levels. Still some focus on limited spillover effects, particularly given track record behind escalate to de-escalate narrative. Deutsche Bank also noted that oil would need to see $110 a barrel on a sustained basis to generate a more negative market reaction (that level, sustained, could trigger hawkish policy response and broader macro damage). Momentum outperformance: Momentum bouncing following another notable unwind on Monday that once again seemed devoid of any credible fundamental catalyst. Technical factors continue to get most of the attention when it comes to elevated momentum vol. However, some incremental support for the AI capex theme today from the IBM negative preannouncement. ASML earnings on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday seen as next potential catalysts. IBM down big on negative preannouncement: IBM down over 20% and weighing on some of the software space following its (rare) negative Q2 preannouncement. Highlighted shift in client capex toward servers, storage and memory to lock-in supply-constrained (thanks to AI boom) components ahead of expected price hikes. Negatively impacted Z mainframe and software. Management highlighted large-deal slippage. HCA hits healthcare: Healthcare under pressure with med-tech and hospitals among the big decliners. Weakness a function of negative preannouncement from HCA. Inpatient and outpatient surgical volumes declined in Q2 (and worsened from Q1) and company lowered 2026 EBITDA guidance by $250M to $15.4-16.1B. Company cited negative mix shift driven largely by patients who lost insurance coverage on the Exchanges. Not much from Warsh: Fed Chair Warsh's prepared statement noted Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. During his testimony, Warsh stressed June CPI just one data point and does not want to overread or cherry pick data. Said he is not looking to get balance sheet back to where it was before GFC. Noted AI supply shock happening faster than he expected. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 11:39	StreetAccount Event Recap: June CPI June CPI came in notably softer than expected, with core CPI flat m/m vs consensus +0.2% and headline CPI down 0.4% m/m vs consensus -0.1%; annualized core cooled to 2.6% and headline eased to 3.5%, both now lowest since early 2026. Headline decline was driven primarily by a 5.7% drop in energy prices, more than offsetting slight increases in shelter (+0.1%) and food (+0.2%); however, shelter still cooled from May; core goods down 0.1% for a second consecutive month and core services flat, suggesting little pass-through from higher energy prices. Car insurance, apparel, medical care services, used vehicles all lower; household furnishings down for fourth straight month, suggesting tariff impacts have largely faded; price gains seen in airfares, vehicle maintenance, and software (which carries larger weight in core PCE). Citi said the softer CPI, easing core PCE outlook, and cooling labor market significantly reduce likelihood of a July rate hike and possibly any hikes this year, while BofA said report gives Fed room to stay on hold in July but still expects 75 bp of hikes starting in September; UBS said June's reading not indicative of a new trend, though noted May was likely recent peak of inflation. Comes after Fed Governor Waller said yesterday a rate hike may be needed if core inflation remains elevated, though today's report pushed market expectations lower, with CME FedWatch pricing a ~12% chance of a July hike (vs. 37% pre-CPI) and Kalshi implying ~50% chance of a 2026 hike (vs. 67% pre-CPI). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 08:57	June CPI notably cooler than expected across headline and core: June core CPI came in at 0.0% (vs consensus +0.2%, prior +0.2%); annualized core at +2.6% (vs consensus +2.9%, prior +2.9%), now coolest since Feb-26. Headline CPI fell 0.4% m/m (vs consensus -0.1%, prior +0.5%); annualized headline at +3.5% (vs consensus +3.9%, prior +4.2%), coolest since Mar-26. Energy index fell 5.7% in June after gains in prior three months, driving the overall decline in CPI and more than offsetting increases in shelter (+0.1%) and food (+0.2%). Core goods declined 0.1% m/m, continuing May's 0.1% decline, while core services were flat following May's 0.3% gain. Elsewhere in the report, car insurance fell 2.0% vs May's 1.7% decline; airline fares rose 0.2% vs May's 2.7% gain; apparel down 0.6% vs May's 0.3% rise; new vehicles flat vs May's 0.3% decline; used vehicles fell 0.2% vs May's 0.1% gain. Comes after Fed Governor Waller said yesterday a rate hike may be needed if core inflation remains elevated, though today's cooler CPI pushed market expectations lower, with CME FedWatch pricing a 16% chance of a July hike (vs. 37% pre-CPI) and Kalshi implying 51% chance of a 2026 hike (vs. 67% pre-CPI). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 07:34	Tuesday morning check-in: Kinetic activity in Middle East remains elevated: US launched more strikes against Iran overnight, while Iran continued to target US assets in the region and launched missile attacks that caused significant damage to two UAE tankers in SoH. Renewed tensions between Houthis and Saudi Arabia also in focus. Oil rallying again after Brent posted biggest one-day gain since March 2020 on Monday. However, spillover effects still limited by the escalate to de-escalate narrative. CPI takes on even more importance following Waller: Core CPI expected to increase 0.2% m/m in June. Lots of moving pieces in the previews, which flagged risk in both directions (and sometimes from the same categories). Report takes on even more importance following hawkish leaning comments from Waller on Monday. Noted Fed will need to consider tightening in near term if it gets another hot reading on core inflation this week. Warsh also on tap for today: Fed Chair Warsh delivers first of two days of semiannual monetary policy testimony on Tuesday. Warsh not expected to offer any meaningful color on forward guidance or reaction function. His last comments came at the ECB's conference in Sintra, Portugal, where he reiterated commitment to getting inflation back to target, noted inflation expectations/risks have come down and seemed to lean more dovish on AI (supply side). Bank earnings present first test for a market up against a high bar: Sentiment surrounding bank earnings seen as elevated, particularly with the widely discussed strength in capital markets/trading. This dynamic presents first test for a market that is up against a very high bar going into earnings season. Along with expectations for a second straight Q of 20%+ growth, bottom-up S&P 500 consensus increased nearly 3.5% over course of Q2 vs average 5-, 10- and 20-year declines of 2.0%, 2.7% and 4.2%. Momentum stabilization: Momentum bounce in focus following renewed pressure on Monday. Seemingly biggest talking point surrounding surge in momentum vol (The Market Ear) is the lack of a fundamental catalyst. Goldman Sachs, which looked at the 27% drawdown in the Kospi from its 19-Jun closing high, focused on mechanical (leveraged ETF gamma unwind) and passive selling pressures, along with SK Hynix ADR "sell the news" rotation. IBM negative preannouncement highlights headwind from capex shift: IBM under pressure after it guided Q2 revenue and EPS below the Street. Flagged worse-than-expected hit from mainframe cycle roll off. Also highlighted cybersecurity distraction and execution issues. Higher-profile drag revolved around shift in client capex toward servers, storage and memory to lock-in supply-constrained (thanks to AI boom) components ahead of expected price hikes. Investor sentiment very bullish: July Global Fund Manager Survey from BofA showed biggest US equity overweight since late 2024, underpinned by highest forecast for "boom" since early 2022. Highlighted big drop in cash levels to 3.6% from 4.1%. Also noted BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at extreme bull reading of 9.4 (suggests reducing equity exposure). Long global semis still seen as most crowded trade. Retail still buying the dip: Retail buying continues to be flagged as a key source of demand for equities. In its latest update, Citadel Securities (Scott Rubner) said retail remains strongest structural buyer of equities. Noted it has yet to see a single net sell day on its retail cash equities platform in July. Added that July 2026 currently ranks as second-strongest month for retail net buying since January 2020 (and strongest July in its dataset). Apple downgraded to underweight at KeyBanc: KeyBanc downgraded Apple to underweight from sector weight. Flagged slowing iPhone builds with price increases, weak US upgrades and changing device subsidy models. Also said '27 estimates likely need to come down for Mac, iPad, and Wearables. Added that as unit growth likely slows, so will user base, likely weighing on Services. Sell-equivalent ratings on Apple at ~8% vs 62% for buy-equivalent. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 07:31	BofA's latest survey cautions bull readings extreme, AI positioning and sentiment extended: BofA's July Global Fund Manager Survey highlighted bullishness given optimism around macro boom, AI capex, and a dovish Fed, with FMS investor sentiment most bullish since February. However, noted US equity overweight largest since Dec-24, forecasts for boom highest since Feb-22. FMC cash level down 0.5 pp to 3.6% (lowest since Feb-26), and BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.4, which it describes as extreme bull reading. Given extended sentiment, recommended reducing equity and high beta exposure, noting summer upside for risk assets to remain stymied by bull positioning. A record 54% said "no landing" most likely outcome, while a net 4% expect lower global inflation ahead, down from net 45% that expected higher inflation last month. AI bubble seen as biggest tail risk, overtaking second inflation wave. AI hyperscaler capex seen as most likely source of systemic credit event, while 82% said long global semiconductors most crowded trade. A net 48% said AI stocks not in a bubble, while 61% do not expect AI hyperscaler to announce capex cut. Despite report's caution on extended AI sentiment and recent high profile strategist calls around broadening, some remain constructive on AI-linked trade. Citi recently said tech continues to screen highly, AI volatility likely to remain elevated but see continued AI capex growth as ROI becomes more apparent, while Evercore ISI said record AI investments to continue supporting above-trend EPS growth. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jul-2026 06:22	US completes third night of Iran strikes, Trump formally informs Congress fighting has resumed: Another night of US strikes against Iran, with US Central Command noting operations to further degrades Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping. Iran also launched missile attacks causing "significant damage" to two UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; the Revolutionary Guard accused the US of "inciting vessels to use an illegal route" (Reuters). Uptick in attacks coming after reports Trump late last week sent formal notice to Congress that hostilities with Iran resumed on 7-July after Iran attacked commercial shipping in the SoH (Reuters, Politico). Likely to renew DC debate about the proper application of the 1973 War Powers Act. Note Trump yesterday also said the US would restart its naval blockade of Iran effective 4pm Eastern today (Axios); added US will be acting as "guardian" of SoH and should be reimbursed at a rate of 20% of all cargo shipped (Truth Social). Market reaction has been limited. Oil is rising again today (WTI back above $80/barrel and erasing its post-MOU slump), though the gain is more moderate. Treasury yields relatively flat after another rise yesterday. Overall, market seems more concerned with Q2 earnings and incoming economic data while the current flare-up is consistent with the escalate/de-escalate pattern to which investors have become accustomed. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Jul-2026 14:55	Afternoon Headlines: Corporate: Tariff refunds helping corporate America offset higher costs (Axios) California and 11 other states file suit to block Paramount's Warner Bros deal, citing antitrust (Politico) TransDigm abandons $960M takeover of Stellant Systems after DoJ threatened lawsuit (Bloomberg) VW CEO says company may need to cut about ~50K jobs to match competitiveness of rivals (Guardian) US appeals court reverses trial decision to dismiss lawsuits against Kenvue over alleged link to autism, ADHD (NY Times) AI: More than 200 economists and researchers call for study of AI impacts before it becomes "radically more powerful" (Bloomberg, statement) White House is expanding effort to keep AI data center costs off household power bills (Reuters) US-Iran: Trump says the US will impose fees in the Strait of Hormuz "at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped" (CNBC) Trump reimposes naval blockade on Iran and will prevent any ships from leaving or entering Iranian ports (Axios) Yemen's Houthis vow to retaliate after suspected Saudi attack on Sanaa airport (Reuters) Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport was struck by Houthi missiles on Monday (Jerusalem Post) Energy: Flows through Strait of Hormuz have now fallen to two-month low, according to shipping data (Reuters) Dubai is planning a new east coast port in Fujairah to bypass the Strait of Hormuz (Times of Israel) Iran shipped at least 57M barrels of crude after the first US blockade was lifted (Bloomberg) OPEC+ crude output (including ex-member UAE) averaged 36.28M bpd in June, up about 3M bpd from May (link) Russia's crude output declined to the lowest in at least two and a half years in June (Bloomberg) EU fails to endorse a 21st sanctions package against Russia, freeze floating oil price cap (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed Governor Waller warns Fed will need to consider rate hikes soon if CPI comes in hot (FT, speech) CME's FedWatch tool shows 47% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike, while Kalshi puts odds at 36% (CNBC) Warsh's balance sheet review will face challenge of balancing shrinking without de-stabilizing funding markets (Bloomberg) Washington: Trump seeing pressure from oil and gas firms to extend waiver of Jones Act shipping restrictions (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: KVUE, PSKY, TDG, WBD	show story hide story
13-Jul-2026 13:05	Monday midday check-in: Trump says US will be the one collecting SoH fees: President Trump said on Truth Social this morning that US is reinstating the Iranian blockade. Noted that this only impacts Iranian vessels. Added that the SoH is open to all other countries. However, said that as a matter of fairness for providing safety and security, US will impose a 20% reimbursement rate on all cargo shipped. Not much to explain momentum weakness: Momentum selloff once again coming without any notable fundamental drivers (some talk of earnings concerns surrounding DRAM ASPs and HBM mix). Big theme surrounding last week's stabilization was that the technical/seasonal unwind had largely run its course. However, JPMorgan did point out that positioning is only slightly off highs and hedge fund selling remains limited. Kospi near max drawdown: South Korea's Kospi index was down nearly 9% overnight. Goldman Sachs noted index now down 25%, near the 30% max drawdown seen over last five years. Firm said it still has yet to hear of a fundamental catalyst that convincingly explains the selloff. Noted excuses have revolved around seasonality, leveraged ETF impact, swaps limit and flows (highlighted passive-heavy dynamic in today's trading). Rotation vs risk off: Rotation getting some attention as a cushion amid another momentum unwind. AI loser basket one of the better performers (software up over 1%). Consumer a relative bright spot with bulk of retail, apparel & accessories and food names among the better performers. Chemicals, industrial metals, credit cards/payments and insurance some of the other outperformers. Higher rates: Rates higher with oil rally (and some continued focus on elevated product prices) and hawkish Waller. Headlines earlier today noted two-year yields (>4.25%) highest since early 2025. While oi/Fed the key areas of focus, some of the blame for last week's backup went to corporate bond supply (unexpected $25B sale from Amazon). This also triggered more scrutiny on deluge of AI debt and recent widening in spreads. More upbeat earnings previews: Street upbeat on earnings. Evercore ISI said it expects S&P 500 EPS to surprise to the upside by 7% in Q2, well above pre-pandemic average beat rate of 3%. Highlighted record AI investments and dampened prospects of triple-digit oil (which should boost consumer). BofA earnings preview noted that while bar is high, no signs earnings momentum rolling over and growth broadening out. CPI kicks off big macro week: Pretty quiet outside of Middle East and momentum weakness ahead of a busy macro week. CPI kicks things off on Tuesday. Core CPI expected to increase 0.2% m/m, leaving the y/y growth at 2.9%. Lots of moving pieces in the previews, which flagged risk in both directions (and sometimes from the same categories). Street also mixed on inflation outlook and Fed reaction function. Warsh also on tap for tomorrow: Fed Chair Warsh delivers first of two days of semiannual monetary policy testimony on Tuesday. Warsh not expected to offer any meaningful color on forward guidance or reaction function. His last comments came at the ECB's conference in Sintra, Portugal, where he reiterated commitment to getting inflation back to target, noted inflation expectations/risks have come down and seemed to lean more dovish on AI (supply side). Card spending data continues to look good: Consumer resilience theme has been underpinned by a number of factors, including still solid labor market, wealth effect from stock market gains, elevated tax refunds from OBBBA and dampened energy intensity. Latest from BofA Institute noted card spend +6.3% y/y in June, strongest in over four years and growth almost entirely a function of discretionary. Also highlighted signs of converging K with lower-income seeing biggest boost. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Jul-2026 13:00	StreetAccount Event Preview: Fed Chair Warsh testimony on Capitol Hill Fed Chair Warsh scheduled for two days of testimony this week, starting with Tuesday's appearance before House Financial Services Committee (14-Jul, 10 ET), followed by Wednesday's appearance before Senate Banking Committee (15-Jul, 10 ET). Follows Friday release of latest Monetary Policy Report, which was fairly uneventful. Said labor market stable though labor supply growth extremely subdued, while upward market assessments of the policy path reflect concern over Middle East, increased confidence in labor market. Previews said Warsh unlikely to offer much new, in line with his strategy to avoid telegraphing Fed policy outside meetings or conveying anything like forward guidance. BofA argued Warsh's commentary might lean closer to what he said in Sintra vs what he said in the June FOMC meeting press conference, which could be interpreted as dovish. Recall in Sintra, Warsh said inflation risks had decreased in weeks since the meeting, declined to comment on whether Fed would raise rates at its next meeting, emphasized importance of ability to adjust to changing economic circumstances, and touted potential AI-related supply side implications for policy (NY Times). Some press previews also noted Warsh has an opportunity to steer consensus of a fairly divided Fed when he testifies this week, particularly as June CPI to be released just before Tuesday's hearing and just two weeks before July FOMC decision (link, FT). However, comes after Monday's hawkish-leaning remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who said FOMC will need to consider tightening in near-term if CPI elevated (Bloomberg). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Jul-2026 09:02	StreetAccount Event Preview: June core CPI June core CPI (14-Jul, 8:30 ET consensus for a 0.26% m/m, up from 0.20% May print. Annualized core expected to hold at 2.9% y/y. Headline CPI expected to contract -0.15% m/m from 0.5% in May, while, annualized headline consensus of 3.8% y/y down from prior 4.2%. In core services, previews see more mild rent, OER inflation, though BofA argued housing disinflationary force waning as price hikes have normalized. However, potential rebound in motor vehicle insurance (down 1.7% m/m in June), World Cup-related impact to hotels, airfares, car rentals upside risks. In core goods, previews said less tariff impact after IEEPA decision. Autos potentially softer with Goldman Sachs forecasting declines in both new, used vehicles. JPMorgan noted computer software/accessories, a recent big upward pressure, may cool as retail memory prices flattened m/m. Street remains mixed on inflation outlook and Fed reaction function. Citi said it expects slower shelter inflation, minimal energy cost passthrough to factor into market pricing out Fed rate hikes altogether. However, BofA argued ongoing firm core CPI readings (expect 0.29% m/m, 3.4% y/y) driven by services should strengthen case for near-term rate hikes. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Jul-2026 07:21	Monday morning check-in: Continued ramp in Middle East tensions: Middle East tensions remain elevated. US intensified attacks on Iranian air defenses, coastal radar sites and missile and drone capabilities, while Iran targeted US sites across multiple Gulf countries. More discussion about how SoH transit leverage has become the big issue for Tehran. Market still seems to be focused on the escalate to de-escalate dynamic, which has been a feature of both the conflict and ceasefire/MOU. Memory weakness overnight: Memory weakness the big story overnight with South Korea's Kospi down nearly 9%, dragged down by a record 15% decline in SK Hynix and a nearly 11% pullback in Samsung Electronics. Nothing really new, though broader capex concerns and SK Hynix specific earnings and rotation scrutiny flagged (Bloomberg). Last week saw momentum stabilization following a big unwind largely chalked up to technical dynamics. Q2 earnings season expected to deliver second straight Q of 20%+ growth: According to FactSet's latest Earnings Insight, estimated S&P 500 earnings growth rate for Q2 is 23.6%. Noted that based on average improvement in earnings growth rate during an earnings season, S&P 500 will likely deliver 29%+ growth for Q2. Pointed out this would be highest since the 32% growth seen in Q4 of 2021. AI earnings tailwind: AI compute and capex demand once again set to provide the big earnings tailwind for Q2. AI infrastructure stocks expected to contribute nearly 60% of total S&P 500 earnings growth in Q2. Semi space expected to account for nearly half of total S&P 500 earnings growth. Solid macro, higher oil prices and weaker dollar some of the other positives for Q2 earnings. Big week of bank earnings on tap: JPMorgan, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo all report on 14-Jul. Morgan Stanley on 15-Jul. Earnings previews have been largely upbeat, with a lot of attention on the tailwind from IB and trading. Strong loan growth (including C&I), benign credit expectations and largely contained expense growth some of the other key areas of focus. Also highlighted fairly stable consumer spending trends. AI competition heating up: AI competition continues to get a lot of attention, with multiple layers in focus. FT had latest in a long line of articles about the corporate shift toward Chinese AI models to cut costs, protect data and dampen dependency on US frontier labs (where national security gating concerns have been in play). Bloomberg discussed how new model releases from OpenAI, Meta and SpaceX have also emphasized cost efficiency dynamic. AI supply weighing on bond market: Unexpected $25B bond sale from Amazon last week put more scrutiny on market's ability to handle a deluge of AI debt (link). Goldman Sachs noted that $75B of AI related issuance over past month (and $241B ytd and $360B over past year) has caused its AI basket to widen by ~25 bp. Noted messaging from investors is clear that it will be very difficult to fund another $360B over next 12 months in same manner. Fed debate focused on potential rate cut reversal: Next Fed meeting, which will be Warsh's second as Fed Chair, set for Jul 28-29. Financial press report discussed how debate within the Fed now revolves around whether to undo some of last year's easing. Noted key complication revolves around idiosyncratic drivers of current elevated inflation rather than the wage-driven inflation Fed's models were built to read. Market currently pricing in just under 40 bp of tightening this year. Apple sues OpenAI over alleged trade secret theft: Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI alleging trade secret theft. Suit largely focused on former employees who joined OpenAI, including Chief Hardware Officer Tang Tan. Tan had spent 24 years at Apple and had most recently been VP of product design for the iPhone and Apple Watch. Alleged improper use or sharing of confidential information to support OpenAI's hardware development efforts. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
13-Jul-2026 06:25	US conducts more strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran hits regional powers: The US and Iran both conducted further strikes this weekend as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. US Central Command reported strikes against air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, drone/missile facilities, and small boats, noting its forces are postured to ensure freedom of navigation. For its part, Iran launched attacks against as many as six Persian Gulf states, including Oman (with which it has been trying to reach a deal for SoH oversight). The strait has been the focal point of the recent escalation, with Iran insisting on some level of control over shipping traffic and the US asserting the need for freedom of navigation. Iran has declared the strait "closed until further notice" (Axios). The US has recently been facilitating some traffic through the SoH's southern passage; but transits have fallen sharply and ships recently attempting passage have done so with their transponders off (Bloomberg). There has been some commentary recently suggesting that Tehran values its newfound influence over the SoH so highly that it is willing to risk the escalation to preserve it (Reuters, link). Note the 17-Jun memorandum of understanding (which Trump has said is "over") included a provision about Iran and Oman engaging in dialogue about the strait's future (CNN). Latest flare-up leaves diplomatic prospects in doubt; Iran said the MOU is now in "crisis stage." However, market reaction has been more cautious than concerned, with higher but limited moves in oil and rates. Recall over the past several months, investors have seen multiple cycles of escalation followed by renewed negotiation momentum, with consensus seeing a return to a fully "hot war" as unlikely. That said, it remains unclear where a compromise can be found on the SoH, and the current dust-up does not deal with Iran's nuclear program, likely to remain another key sticking point. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Jul-2026 10:34	Bearish talking points for week-ended 10-Jul: US-Iran ceasefire/MOU meaningfully strained after Iran attacked multiple commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz and US launched retaliatory strikes against a wide range of Iranian targets, including air defense systems, missile and drone facilities, logistics infrastructure and even civilian infrastructure. US also revoked waiver allowing sale of Iranian oil. Leverage over Strait of Hormuz has become key issue for Iran, with reports noting it is even more important than nuclear. The problem with this dynamic is that Strait of Hormuz is the only real issue for a market inclined to largely ignore geopolitics. Starting point the other big complication given depleted global inventories, still elevated product pricing and impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russia. Concerns about a high bar heading into Q2 earnings season found some support as Samsung Electronics fell nearly 7% despite a 19-fold increase in operating profit. According to FactSet, bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate increased by 3.4% over course of Q2 vs average 5-, 10- and 20-year declines of 2.0%, 2.7% and 4.2%. FT discussed how ramp in growth expectations has started to raise concerns about an earnings bubble. Momentum (particularly semis/memory) still very sensitive to headlines that hint at potential dents/shifts in the broader insatiable AI compute and capex demand narratives. Recent areas of scrutiny have revolved around ramp in enterprise adoption of open-source models/frontier pricing, excess compute capacity, memory supply chain expansion and technological progress in areas like edge inference. Pepsi and Costco notable decliners in consumer staples space on Thursday following their updates. Pepsi strength in international overshadowed by incremental softening in NA. Company flagged inflation headwinds and a more gradual than expected recovery. Costco delivered a solid +7.6% June comp, but it slowed from May and came in slightly below consensus. Takeaways noted high bar given valuation. AI disruption in enterprise software back in the headlines. Microsoft and IBM lagged on Thursday following Bloomberg report that Starbucks is leveraging AI to develop in-house tools that could displace software applications it currently purchases from Microsoft (inventory tracking) and IBM (maintenance management). Rates remained elevated. Oil backup received some blame (on heels of scrutiny surrounding breakdown in correlation between oil and yields). Hawkish Fed reaction function another area of focus despite some debate about which direction FOMC minutes leaned. Fiscal also in the headlines though flavor was more global (Japan, Germany). Corporate supply a big story this week with spillover from $25B bond sale from Amazon. Tariff pass-through still in the pipeline despite some positive spin surrounding refunds (which Walmart said this week it would use to partly fund price cuts).NY Fed Liberty Street Economics blog noted its latest regional business surveys showed nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases. Added some expect to raise prices six months or more in the future. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Jul-2026 10:33	Bullish talking points for week-ended 10-Jul: Momentum stabilized this week, fitting with thoughts recent unwind was much more about technical dynamics (positioning, seasonality) than any meaningful narrative. AI capex narrative also supported by report Meta looking to add a total of 14GW of compute by 2027. Meta CEO Zuckerberg also pushed back against recent excess capacity concerns with comments about company needing all the compute it can get. Oil upside limited despite flareup in kinetic activity in the Middle East and related constraints on SoH transit. Fit with skepticism about a meaningful/sustained re-escalation of military activity. Such skepticism supported by Trump's perceived interest in moving on from Iran. Also came just on the heels of a flurry of headlines about a near-term supply glut. Late-week headlines said technical talks still taking place. Nvidia rallied Wednesday with help from The Information report that China will permit limited buying of Nvidia's H200 chips to top AI firms. While US cleared the way for the chip sales earlier this year, China has not signed off. Despite speculation, nothing came to fruition when Jensen accompanied Trump to China in May for the summit with Xi. Delta highlighted still strong travel demand. Q2 results and Q3 guidance ahead. Company noted broad demand strength and momentum across customer segments. Also said current trends provide a favorable setup for strength to extend into the December Q. Street takeaways remained positive on pricing power, premium positioning and diversified revenue streams. Busy again on M&A front following a nearly 50% surge in 1H. Solstice to acquire Element Solutions in a cash-and-stock deal valued at ~$14.5B. Vertex Pharmaceuticals to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals in a $10B deal. Genuine Parts Company's auto business reportedly in play in a deal that would be $10B+. Qiagen reportedly has attracted takeover interest from PE in what would be another $10B+ deal. ISM services spun as supportive for solid macro backdrop narrative despite some sequential slippage in headline and new orders readings. Employment component pushed back into expansion for first time in four months and while still elevated, prices paid fell back below 70 level for first time since February. Respondent commentary highlighted resilient demand with AI capex boom a big tailwind. All three Treasury auctions stopped through this week despite the elevated rate scrutiny. Citi discussed strong demand at the 10- and 30-year auctions. Highlighted indirects as a bright spot. Bid/cover on the 10-year was in 91st percentile of the past 12 auctions. Bid/cover on 30-year was in 82^nd percentile of the past 12 auctions. Some technical relief coming for the Fed's preferred inflation indicator started to get more attention in sell-side research and the press. Axios highlighted methodological changes for calculation of three subcategories: portfolio management and investment advice services, computer software and accessories, and legal services. Street has talked about a ~0.2pp reduction in y/y core PCE from the changes. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Jul-2026 07:55	Friday morning check-in: Middle East calm: Following two days of attacks between US and Iran earlier this week, latest headlines noted technical talks still taking place and relayed US preference for a diplomatic solution. Market skeptical about a sustained/meaningful re-escalation of kinetic activity. However, also skeptical Tehran will back off its insistence on maintaining some kind of leverage over SoH transit. Fits with some expectations for an escalate-to-deescalate loop. Meta AI momentum: Busy Meta headlines this week, including report it is looking double computing capacity to 14GW by next year (which pushed up 2027 capex estimates), Zuckerberg's comments about needing all the compute it can get (while still considering renting out capacity) and release of Muse Spark 1.1 model. SemiAnalysis also discussed how Meta is emerging as most credible challenger in what has largely been a two-horse frontier model race. Delta positive on 2H: Delta Q2 ahead and company guided for Q3 revenue up mid-teens and EPS nearly 11% above consensus at midpoint. Release highlighted 14% y/y revenue growth, broad demand strength and momentum across customer segments. Also said current trends provide favorable setup for strength to extend into Dec Q. Expectations into the print were elevated given still strong travel demand, pricing power and premium positioning. Netflix concerned about engagement: Ahead of Netflix earnings on 16-Jul, financial press report discussed company concerns about signs of a decline in customer engagement. Noted in an effort to boost engagement, company has recently discussed adding live channels and subscription bundle partnerships. In its Netflix earnings preview, JPMorgan said it does not believe these kinds of more extreme methods would be taken well by the Street. Goldman Sachs sees cooler core CPI print: Heading into June CPI on 14-Jul, Goldman Sachs said it expects a 0.1% decline in the headline reading, in line with consensus. Firm expects a 0.17% increase in core CPI, below the +0.3% consensus. Highlighted expectations for a decline in both new and used vehicles (and insurance), benign shelter category readings, more moderate increases in travel services and pressure from residual seasonality. Big week of bank earnings on tap: JPMorgan, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo all report on 14-Jul. Morgan Stanley on 15-Jul. Earnings previews have been largely upbeat, with a lot of attention on the tailwind from IB and trading. Strong loan growth (including C&I), benign credit expectations and largely contained expense growth some of the other key areas of focus. Also highlighted fairly stable consumer spending trends. Big equity inflows, bull-bear spread improves: According to latest Flow Show report from BofA, global equity funds attracted $56.4B in week-ended 8-Jul, the fourth largest ytd. Added that US equity inflows resumed to the tune of $25.1B. Tech the standout with an $18.8B inflow. AAII bull-bear spread improved to -0.9% from -10.9% in prior week. Fed makes its task force announcements: New Fed Chair Warsh announced leaders of five task forces created to examine potential operational improvements for the central bank. Warsh's selections largely drew on academics, former central bankers and business executives. Task forces focused on areas where Warsh has already highlighted preference for changes/different thinking, including communications, balance sheet, productivity and data sources. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jul-2026 15:12	Afternoon Headlines: AI: Meta to start production of Iris AI chip, double data center capacity to 14GW in 2027 (Reuters) Altman says OpenAI's newest AI model is 54% more token efficient on agentic coding (CNBC) Altman says "lot of inaccuracies" in report saying US government will take stake in OpenAI (CNBC) Meta unveils Muse Spark 1.1, its strongest model for agentic and coding work yet (link) Meta's Zuckerberg says offers to sell compute so high it makes sense to sell capacity (Bloomberg) Anthropic appoints former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke to its governance board (Bloomberg) AI training startup Mercor in talks for $20B valuation amid surging demand (Bloomberg) TeraWulf is preparing to raise $3.5B in debt to build a data center campus in Kentucky (Bloomberg) Palo Alto Networks CEO Arora says high token costs need to come down 90% to promote enterprise adoption (CNBC) Corporate: SK Hynix's Friday IPO set to price at $149/sh, could raise ~$26.5B (Reuters) Micron bumps up size of US investment plan by $50B to $250B+, says New York semiconductor campus project ahead of schedule (Reuters) Goldman Sachs wins deal to manage a combined $70B in retirement assets for Verizon and Lockheed Martin (CNBC) Qiagen seeing takeover interest from PE firms including KKR, EQT, and Advent (Bloomberg) KPMG UK cutting 10% of staff across its support teams, affecting approximately 200 back office roles (Bloomberg) Iran war: Mediator countries working to bring Iran and US back to the negotiating table, according to sources (CNN) Lebanon, Israel enter implementation phase of US-backed Hezbollah disarmament agreement (link) Energy: Low stockpiles, still elevated petroleum products prices mean global oil market will have a hard time with another SoH closure (link) Thirteen tankers crossed the SoH yesterday compared with ~33 per day over the previous week (CNBC) Russia's Saratov oil refinery stopped oil processing on Wednesday following drone attack (Reuters) Qatar pausing efforts to rapidly revive production at LNG facility following tanker attack (Financial Post) Momentum behind green fuels for shippers is fading amid exorbitant costs and supply-constrains (Oilprice.com) Economy: Lower-income workers see accelerating wage growth as K-shaped economy shows signs of narrowing (Axios) North American Class 8 truck orders rose 241% y/y in June amid improving freight conditions (Freightwaves) US direct lending volume fell 55% q/q in Q2 to just under $33.6B, lowest level since Q2 of 2023 despite uptick in flows to private credit (Reuters) Existing-home sales down 2.4% in June; median home price at all-time high (NAR) US pending home sales up 1.3% from a week earlier to highest level in six weeks (Redfin) Central banks: Fed announced leadership and objectives for upcoming task forces (release) NY Fed's Williams says inflation remains too high, labor market remains strong (link) Dallas Fed's Logan says FOMC could centrally clear operations on a voluntary basis to boost efficiency, effectiveness (Reuters) NY Fed's SOMA manager Perli touts flexibility of operations based on money market conditions (Reuters) Markets: Morgan Stanley sees global M&A on track for ~$6.4T in volume for the year, topping 2021's record (Reuters) US relying more than ever on international flows into stocks vs US Treasuries, adding to dollar risks (Reuters) US equity funding costs jumped to 200 bp above fed funds rate in late June, highest since Dec-24 (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GS, LMT, META, MU, PANW, V, WULF, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
09-Jul-2026 14:18	NY Fed's Williams says policy should remain data-dependent, inflation remains larger risk: Speaking at a NY Fed conference on market liquidity and functioning, New York Fed President Williams said policy needs to remain data-dependent, noted labor market has remained strong, sees no signs of second-order inflation, though inflation remains too high (link). On AI, Williams said he is very concerned about AI's impact on inflation, noting that if the AI boom persists and demand outpaces supply, that could be another upside inflation risk. Also noted AI boom could push up neutral rate. However, also noted his baseline expectation is for AI adoption to boost productivity, which would be a large positive supply shock. Not much policy related from Dallas Fed President Logan (voter), though she said at the same conference that the FOMC could make its open market operations more efficient and effective by centrally clearing its operations on a voluntary basis (Reuters). NY Fed's SOMA manager Perli also said that reserve management purchases are not on preset course, can be adjusted any given month depending on money market conditions (Reuters). Also cautioned conditions could tighten through August as market absorbs heavy influx of Treasury bill issuance. Markets pricing ~30 bp of rate hikes through year-end, up slightly from Wednesday despite Treasury rally, playing into recent Street focus on sticky rates as higher real rates offset flattening Fed rate hike path. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jul-2026 12:11	Thursday midday check-in: Momentum rally: Momentum a big outperformer today on semi/memory strength. Follows a Wednesday bounce that played into thoughts recent unwind had largely run its course. Report about Meta doubling compute capacity to 14GW by next year has put more focus on outsized hyperscaler capex narrative. Applied Materials CEO also talked up extended semi cycle and strong visibility over at least next eight quarters. Broadening out trade also working: Big momentum rally has not stopped the broadening out trade (which has seen more positive sell-side commentary this week). Lower oil/rates likely providing a tailwind. Banks (earnings kick off next week), builders, machinery, multis, transports, travel & leisure, restaurants and the bulk of the retail names among the better performers today. Pepsi, Costco weigh on staples: Consumer staples sector under pressure today with Pepsi and Costco big decliners. Pepsi earnings takeaways focused on NA softness (and expectations for a more gradual recovery) and inflation headwinds. Also some scrutiny surrounding broader implications for staples given selloff despite a low bar. Costco June sales solid but decelerated from May and slightly missed consensus. Usual commentary about elevated valuation. Rate reprieve: Treasuries firmer today with some likely help from lack of oil follow through on Wednesday rally. However, 10-year yields still above 4.5% and 30-year yields above 5.0%. Higher rate environment (despite Warsh Sintra comments and softer June NFP) has been chalked up to several factors, including corporate supply. That dynamic in focus this week with surprise new issuance from Amazon (which hit hyperscaler spreads). Oil down despite SoH standstill: Oil on the defensive after finishing off its best levels for the session in Wednesday's rally. Pullback coming despite recent ramp in kinetic activity and reports SoH traffic at a standstill today. Market still skeptical of meaningful reescalation of military activity even as it is also skeptical about MOU negotiations. Also comes on the heels of a flurry of supply glut headlines. AI disruption headline weighs on Microsoft, IBM: AI disruption narrative in focus today. Bloomberg reported Starbucks leveraging AI to develop in-house tools that could displace software applications it currently purchases from Microsoft (inventory tracking) and IBM (maintenance management). Noted company spends $400M a year on software alone. Software still higher overall today. IGV recovered a decent chunk of Q1 selloff in Q2 as SaaSpocalypse fears eased. Negative headlines hit Paramount Skydance: Paramount Skydance a notable decliner. Reuters reported US states could sue to block planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery as early next week. Another report discussed how a nearly $80B debt load following the deal could impact content and sports rights spending, along with investments. Also highlighted limited cost-cutting opportunities. Stock also downgraded to sell from neutral at Arete Research. Claims still subdued, existing home sales miss: Uneventful day of US economic data and nothing on the calendar for Friday ahead of a big macro week next week (CPI, PPI, retail sales, Warsh). Initial claims came in slightly below consensus at 217K. Nothing to change no-hire/no-fire, stable labor market narratives. Existing home sales unexpectedly declined by 2.4% in June vs expectations for a small gain. Report flagged affordability and inventory issues. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jul-2026 08:47	Jobless claims remain subdued, reinforcing resilient labor market narrative: Initial claims came in at 215K vs consensus 218K and prior week's upwardly revised 217K (was 215K); 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's average; Continuing claims came in at 1814K vs consensus 1820K and previous week's downwardly revised 1806K (was 1814K). Largest increase in initial claims for the week ending 27-Jun were in New Jersey (+7,262), Connecticut (+2,503), and Massachusetts (+1,823), while largest decreases were in California (-6,158), Pennsylvania (2,995), and Minnesota (-1,947). Initial claims have remained essentially unchanged for third straight week, holding near the middle of this year's range and continuing to signal limited layoffs. Follows yesterday's June FOMC minutes, where Fed officials said labor market is broadly balanced, unemployment stable, and conditions are expected to hold steady in the near term; Morgan Stanley said recent labor market trends support the Fed staying on hold through year-end, while Citi argued softer June job growth and downward revisions should ease hawkish concerns. Elsewhere this morning, June existing home sales down 2.4% m/m to 4.09M vs consensus 4.20M and May's 4.17M (revised from 4.19M); m/m sales increased in the Northeast, and declined in the Midwest, South and West; median home price reached an all-time high of $440,600. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jul-2026 08:18	Thursday morning check-in: Middle East tensions elevated, oil strength limited: US launched a second straight night of attacks against Iran. CENTCOM said strikes designed to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in Strait of Hormuz. Iran said it struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. SoH traffic reportedly near standstill, particularly in terms of US-supported Omani corridor. However, follow through (and Wednesday rally) in oil has been fairly muted (despite short positioning). All about Strait of Hormuz Tehran's push to maintain some kind of control over SoH the key driver of recent flare-up in US-Iran tensions. SoH as the tipping point not surprising given view that SoH reopening momentum/oil weakness had dented Iran's negotiating leverage. Despite skepticism about a meaningful re-escalation of kinetic activity, Axios reported US preparing for extended confrontation in SoH. Momentum unwind may have run its course: Wednesday's momentum bounce, which came despite a broader risk off trade, fit with thoughts that recent unwind had largely run its course. Prior to Wednesday's open, JPMorgan pointed out that its momentum basket had seen a ~13% peak-to-trough decline, in line with typical corrections averaging a 10-15% decline. Multiple firms also described momentum unwind as orderly and flagged some dip buying from retail. Meta to put new AI chip into production in September: Meta to put AI chip into production as part of effort to double computing capacity to 14GW by next year, according to an internal memo highlighted by Reuters. Noted move should also help lower massive computing costs and dampen reliance on Nvidia and AMD. Pre-market weakness in stock may play into broader outsized capex/ROI uncertainty narrative. Costco comps solid but miss consensus: Costco reported US comps (ex fuel) +7.6% in June, a slowdown from +8.7% in May and slightly below the +7.8% consensus. Takeaways did not flag any notable issues with the comp slowdown and remained positive on share gains/traffic. Also noted management said they did not see any meaningful changes in consumer trends or competitive backdrop. However, some of the usual discussion surrounding elevated valuation. Pepsi flags tighter consumer budgets: Pepsi Q2 organic growth and EPS largely in line with consensus. Maintained FY guidance despite some speculation of a cut. International a bright spot but US soft. Noted US food and beverage category performance moderated with consumer budgets tightening due to inflationary pressures. Added it expects a more gradual improvement in NA performance trends for balance of year. Levi beats and raises but stock lags: Levi Q2 ahead and raised FY guidance. Takeaways positive on fairly broad-based momentum across channels, geographies and categories. Highlighted NA as a key upside driver with both DTC and wholesale ahead. Also talked up market share gains and company comments about feeling very good about the US consumer. However, high bar and Q4-weighted margin expansion guide mentioned as overhangs. Applied Materials CEO talks up extended semi cycle: Recent momentum selloff seen as much more technical than any shift in AI capex demand narrative. Upcoming Q2 earnings season expected to support this view. In addition, CEO of Applied Materials told Nikkei chipmakers sharing their equipment demand outlooks for two years or more to ensure smooth capacity expansions. Noted his company has extremely clear view of demand over next eight quarters (and even longer). More talk about China limiting foreign access to top AI models: National security gating a high-profile area of scrutiny in AI. While much of the focus has been on the US, China has been in the headlines this week with multiple reports see (here and here) it is considering limiting foreign access to its most powerful models. Comes amid a flurry of headlines about increased US enterprise use of open-source models from China to optimize workloads/cut costs. Macro focus shifts to CPI next week: Economic calendar gets busier next week with June CPI on 14-Jul. UBS out with one of earlier previews. Expects a 0.25% m/m decline in headline reading, which would be largest since April 2020, driven by lower gas prices. Expects a 0.21% m/m increase in core reading. Highlighted residual seasonality, minimal tariff pass-through and continued slowdown in shelter. Also flagged some upside risks surrounding computers and hotels. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jul-2026 07:16	Bank earnings to kick off with capital markets momentum, elevated rates among areas of focus: Moneycenter bank, investment bank earnings kick off next week with Tuesday (14-Jul) pre-market reports from Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo; Wednesday (15-Jul) pre-market from Morgan Stanley (Reuters). Previews noted expectations for strong capital markets performance. IB fees likely boosted by SpaceX IPO, ramp in big AI-related equity/debt offerings. BofA noted market may treat as one-off, not believing performance sustainable, though Wells Fargo noted $200B of IG offerings in June alone would not have been included in prior Q2 guidance. Equity/FICC trading outlooks mixed. Recall BofA said in May trading desk revenues trending stronger than Q1 guidance (Bloomberg). However, some argued initial Q1 volatility shock from Iran war more muted through Q2. Some previews noted more hawkish Fed, solid loan growth among NII tailwinds, though some expect potential discussions around peak NIM given competitive deposit environment. Other areas of focus include cost controls, views on capex supercycle, wealth management momentum, buybacks/dividends. Recall recent Fed stress tests sparked several capital return announcements, while BofA to make announcement this month (CNBC). However, several noted high bar. KBW Bank Index (BKX) and KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking (KRX) have both outperformed S&P 500 YTD and recently hit record highs, benefiting from latest market rotation/broadening trade. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, WFC...(more)	show story hide story
08-Jul-2026 14:49	Afternoon Headlines: AI: China to allow its AI firms to purchase a limited number of Nvidia's H200 chips (The Information, Bloomberg) OpenAI says it will publicly release its GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra and Luna models (CNBC) SpaceXAI releases new model, Grok 4.5; pitched as coding and agentic work tool (Axios) OpenAI releases new, updated voice models for more natural live conversations (TechCunch) Florida lawsuit against OpenAI moved to federal court, assigned to Judge Aileen Cannon (Politico) Corporate: Oregon's attorney general is seeking to file court order delaying Paramount-Warner Bros merger (Bloomberg) Blue Origin valued at $130B in first outside fundraising round (CNBC) Airbus delivered 351 ?airplanes in the first half of the ‌year, up around 15% y/y (Reuters) Zillow, Redfin partnership question headed to August trial after judge denies an FTC request to block it (Bloomberg) Iran war: Trump threatens to hit Iran "hard again" tonight after saying earlier negotiating is waste of time (BBC) Trump says he does not think war with Iran will restart (BBC) Energy: Crude oil inventories in the US saw a surprise increase of 3M barrels during the week ending 3-Jul (Oilprice.com) Russia announces short-term ban on diesel exports amid domestic supply crisis (Bloomberg) Global nuclear power capacity is expected to surge by 44% over the next decade (Oilprice.com) Renewed threats to shipping slowing Saudi Arabia's attempt to revive Gulf flows from Ras Tanura port (Bloomberg) Markets: After recent slide, Nvidia's 18x next-12M earnings valuation is cheapest since before the AI boom (Bloomberg) Brent crude's 8% gain, pushes September futures contract to around $80/barrel (Bloomberg) BofA cuts its 2026 gold price forecast 15% to $4,360 though still maintains bullish outlook (Reuters) Dollar continues to see boost from safe-haven tailwind as US/Iran tensions ramp (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed minutes show policymakers split on direction of rates through year-end (CNBC) Economy / Trade: IMF downgrades 2026 forecast for global growth to 3%, with Mideast war pressures partly offset by AI (AP, IMF) Trump administration preparing list of Spanish goods to potentially embargo, risks blowing up US/EU trade deal (Politico) Used EV prices jumped 12% y/y in June vs 1.7% for non-EVs as gas prices push higher (CNBC) Airbus cuts 20-year jet demand forecast citing Iran war and tariffs (Reuters) Geopolitics: US to grant Ukraine license to manufacture their own Patriot interceptors (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: PARA, SPCX, Z, +DEEPSEEK, +OPENAI	show story hide story
08-Jul-2026 14:24	June FOMC minutes show rate hikes still possible, division within Fed remains: Nothing narrative-changing from June's FOMC minutes with possible rate hikes and Fed division still in focus. Recall Fed held rates steady at the meeting, as expected, with SEP showing nine officials projecting hikes this year, leading to some hawkish takeaways. Policy path: Most participants still see a path for inflation to cool, allowing rates to remain on hold or eventually move lower; however, most noted that persistent inflation driven by AI-related demand, Middle East conflict, or tariffs could warrant rate hikes; a few members saw case for raising rates in June meeting, but ultimately supported no change; views remained divided, with many seeing rates ending 2026 at or below current levels and many others above. Inflation: Fed staff forecast for inflation in 2026 and 2027 was higher than in April forecast, reflecting the Middle East war and AI buildout; participants also generally felt upside risks to price stability remained elevated. Labor market: Participants generally viewed labor market as balanced, with stable unemployment; many said it is no longer a meaningful source of inflationary pressure and most expect conditions to remain stable in the near term. Growth: Participants generally expect solid GDP growth through year-end, supported by AI investment, consumer spending, and fiscal policy, though Fed staff modestly lowered its growth outlook from April. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
08-Jul-2026 07:53	Wednesday morning check-in: Trump says he considers ceasefire over, but negotiations can continue: President Trump said Wednesday he thinks US-Iran ceasefire is over. Followed fresh wave of US strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in SoH. US also revoked waiver allowing sale of Iranian oil. However, Trump and other US officials said negotiations can continue (even though they have not made any meaningful progress). Also still a lot of skepticism about a sustained re-escalation of kinetic activity. Momentum unwind continues: Momentum unwind remains the big market story with focus still largely on technical issues such as crowded positioning, consolidation following a Q2 surge, seasonality and supply rather than any meaningful shift in the fundamental AI infrastructure demand narrative. However, some recent narrative backfitting has revolved around capacity competition, China and open source competition, circularity/debt, earnings bubbles. Momentum unwind superlatives, but no panic: UBS noted momentum factor now down ~20% from its June peak, marking seventh largest drawdown in past decade and fastest to reach that magnitude (14 days). However, also discussed how volume and flow data do not suggest any panic. Noted some cushion from retail. Fits with retail's role as key dip buyer. Citadel Securities has discussed how retail's buy-the-dip behavior reached new extremes in 1H. June FOMC minutes out this afternoon June FOMC minutes out at 14:00. Expected to get outsized scrutiny for myriad reasons, including statement overhaul/no forward guidance, hawkish dots, Warsh's comments about a "good family fight" and heightened reaction function uncertainty. Some debate about the extent to which Warsh could also implement changes in the minutes (less information). Strong demand for SK Hynix US offering: Supply one of the go-to headwinds when it comes to the momentum unwind. However, Reuters also discussed strong demand for SK Hynix's $28B offering of ADRs. Noted book will close on Wednesday as offering already multiple times oversubscribed. Final price to be set on Thursday and shares to start trading on Friday. Deal expected to mark second-biggest share sale following record $85B+ SpaceX IPO. US signs off on GPT-5.6 launch, China may tighten restrictions: OpenAI expected to launch GPT 5.6 on Thursday. Multiple outlets noted Trump administration gave green light for a broad launch after pressuring company for a limited rollout. Staggered release played into concerns about national security gating, which could hamper competition with China. However, Reuters recently reported China also considering tighter controls on foreign access to some of its top domestic models. Open source vs frontier model competition debate may be overrated for now: Ramp in open-source model usage at the enterprise level has been an area of scrutiny for the AI capex narrative, particularly given cost-savings dynamics. However, TechCrunch article discussed how open-source and frontier models seem to be two phases of the same enterprise cycle. Former helped by shifting of mature workloads while latter still able to capture outsized spend via discovery strengths. White House affordability push: White House widely expected to step up affordability push into the midterms. Already in play as it reportedly called on country's top grocers ahead of July 4^th holiday in effort to get them to lower beef prices (link). Walmart, which already had plans to further reduce prices (partly funded by tariff rebates), formally announced the measures earlier this week in response to a Trump social media post. Another S&P 500 price target hike on earnings tailwind: Heading into a Q2 earnings season expected to deliver a second straight Q of 20%+ growth, earnings remains the big bullish talking point for stocks. BCA Research latest to raise 2026 S&P 500 price target on better earnings outlook. Increased S&P 500 target to 8100 from 7700, driven by $330 of EPS (up from $308). In line with other strategist commentary, highlighted breadth of earnings growth and revisions. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
08-Jul-2026 06:19	Trump says he thinks Iran ceasefire is over after latest ramp in attacks: Trump said at NATO summit in Turkey that he believes the current ceasefire with Iran is over. Trump also added he does not want to deal with Iran's leadership anymore, calling negotiations a waste of time (CNBC). Comes after US struck Iranian military targets Tuesday following recent Iranian attacks on commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz (Axios). Iranian leadership said it would respond to US strikes, while Tehran's top negotiator also accused US of major violations of MOU reached last month. Iran said Wednesday it targeted US military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait (Reuters). Also comes after US revoked a waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil on Tuesday afternoon (NY Times). The license, which was issued by US Treasury Department last month, allowed Iran to sell and deliver oil for two months, intended to incentivize Iran to negotiate. Bloomberg noted around 63M barrels of Iranian oil currently on the water, putting potential global supply in limbo. However, also noted Iran had struggled to sell oil after waiver with buyers wary of sudden US policy changes, while no purchases recorded by Asian refiners outside China. Oil futures prices further down the curve pushing higher, with December WTI rising back above $72 (highest since 22-Jun) after falling below $67 a barrel on 2-Jul, the lowest since early March. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Jul-2026 15:06	Afternoon Headlines: AI: China's DeepSeek looking to develop its own chips, reduce reliance on Nvidia and Huawei (Reuters) Microsoft starting to replace OpenAI and Anthropic with its own models in cost-cutting effort (Bloomberg) Meta rolling out new image-generation model within its chatbot, Instagram, and WhatsApp (Bloomberg) Corporate: Amazon planning to raise at least $25B in a bond sale, but says it won't issue any more debt this year (CNBC Bloomberg) SK Hynix's Friday US listing said to be multiple times oversubscribed (Bloomberg) Getty Images creditors organizing after scrapped merger with Shutterstock (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed's Williams says he has grown less worried about inflation due to energy retreat (Reuters) BoJ's Asada said he must see signs of demand-driven inflation before supporting interest rate rises (Reuters) Geopolitics: Iran tells UN maritime organization parts of the Strait of Hormuz should be under its jurisdiction (Bloomberg) Third tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz, according to British military (AP News) Ahead of NATO summit, Trump reiterates US should be in control of Greenland (Reuters) Trump leaning toward allowing Turkey back into F-35 program after being expelled in 2019 (Axios) Energy: US revokes license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil after recent attacks in Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) EIA sees global oil production and flows back at pre-war levels by the end of this year (Bloomberg) Russia halts Omsk oil refinery, the country's largest, following Monday's drone attack (Moscow Times) Fuel costs for ‌U.S. airlines jumped ‌85% y/y in May to nearly $6.7B (US News) US oil executives looking to Trump to pressure European Commission on climate initiative (Politico) Markets: Amazon's $25B bond sale weighing on hyperscaler debt as sell existing securities to fund purchases (Bloomberg) Banks earnings expected to show solid sales and trading performance, fee growth on M&A momentum (Reuters) Real yields have risen as inflation expectations have fallen, reflecting global demand for capital (Axios) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, META, MSFT, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI	show story hide story
07-Jul-2026 12:07	Tuesday midday check-in: Not much new to say about momentum unwind: Crowded positioning, consolidation following a Q2 surge and seasonality continue to be flagged as momentum factor headwinds. Hynix's upcoming ADR listing also cited for memory. Momentum unwind spillover effects limited with seven S&P 500 sectors higher on the day. Lots of moving pieces in the broadening out trade, some of which seem to be a function of higher oil/rates. Consumer outperformance: Consumer-facing groups largely outperforming after coming under some pressure Monday. Seems to be a beneficiary of momentum unwind. Outperformance coming despite uptick in oil on latest flare-up in SoH and some renewed grocery price war chatter following Walmart cuts. Also some talk of choppier retail trends as of late, though multiple firms continue to highlight positive read-through from card spending data. Healthcare higher: Healthcare one of the standouts today and best performer over past month. Seen as another beneficiary of rotation surrounding momentum unwind. Sector positioning modestly underweight at 32^nd percentile, according to Deutsche Bank. M&A a bullish talking point today with another high-premium (100%+) biopharma deal. Vertex Pharmaceuticals to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals in $10B deal. Iran has attacked three ships in SoH: More color on latest flare-up in Middle East. According to Axios, which cited US officials, Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting SoH on Monday night. A third commercial ship was attacked on Tuesday morning. Also noted US likely to retaliate with strikes against Iranian targets. Attacks from Iran come amid heightened chatter about how oil pullback has dampened Tehran's negotiating leverage. Higher yields: Treasuries weaker with 10s above 4.50% and 30-year bond above 5%. Higher oil the easy excuse. However, lots of scrutiny as of late on divergence between the two. Deutsche Bank pointed out that while US 1-year inflation swap has fallen nearly 150 bp from late-April peak to ~2.1%, market pricing in 30 bp of rate hikes by December vs just 3 bp in late April. Amazon back to debt market: Amazon looking to raise at least $25B via an eight-part bond sale, according to CNBC. Earlier this year, company raised $64B from bond sales in US, Europe and Canada. Debt market headlines play into the outsized hyperscaler capex narrative. Amazon has guided for $200B in capex this year, up from $131B in 2025. Hyperscaler capex expected to hit $750B+ this year, up ~85%. Trading tailwind for bank earnings: As the sell-side previews hit for Q2 bank earnings (which kick off next week), so do the financial press reports. Reuters highlighted trading as a key tailwind, driven by elevated volatility surrounding geopolitics and AI, along with SpaceX IPO. IB another bright spot on boom in IPOs, secondary offerings and M&A. Report also noted strong loan growth and NIM expansion. Buyback blackouts: Shift in focus to earnings season brings usual discussion about dampened support from corporate buybacks, a key source of market demand. Goldman Sachs estimated that ~93% of S&P 500 currently in blackout periods into Q2 earnings. Firm expects ytd buyback authorizations of $963B in 2026 vs $833B in 2025 and trailing 5-year average of $694B+. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Jul-2026 11:11	Latest NY Fed consumer survey sees higher inflation expectations, better labor-market views: June edition of NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations found median year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.7% (highest since September 2023) from May's 3.5%. Three-year inflation expectations rose 3.3% from the prior 3.1%, while expectations were unchanged for the five-year period. However, it added median inflation uncertainty decreased for all time horizons. Regarding the labor market, respondents saw a decreased chance the US unemployment rate would be higher over the next 12 months, though this indicator remained above recent averages. The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next year dropped to 14.1% from May's 15.1%, dropping below the trailing 12M average. Expectations for finding a new job if a current job is lost rose to 44.9% from 43.7%, driven by respondents earning less than $50K. Median expected growth in household income over the next year ticked up slightly to 3.0% but remained in the same narrow channel it has occupied for the past year. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment decreased 1.8% to 10.8%, its lowest reading since April 2023. Finally, households' perception of their current financial situations vs one year ago improved, with fewer reporting worse conditions and a greater share reporting an improved financial situation. Year-ahead expectations improved as well. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
07-Jul-2026 08:03	Tuesday morning check-in: Renewed momentum weakness: Momentum weak following Monday bounce. Latest unwind partly chalked up to sell-the-news dynamic surrounding preliminary results from Samsung Electronics. Plays into some of the concerns about a very high bar for semis into Q2 earnings season. In addition, momentum positioning still very elevated, seasonality has been flagged as a headwind and big supply event later this week (SK Hynix US listing). Samsung's 19-fold operating profit increase not enough: Samsung Electronics fell nearly 7% overnight despite preliminary Q2 results highlighted by a 19-fold increase in operating profit. Despite the favorable fundamental takeaways (memory demand tailwind from AI), the ~4% beat and slight top-line miss underwhelmed against very elevated expectations (and some recent concerns about capacity expansion, China competition). Stock surged ~100% in Q2. Middle East may still matter: Middle East back in the headlines as Iran resumed attacks on commercial ships in the SoH. Qatari LNG tanker was one of the vessels hit today. Oil higher on the news but bounce seems fairly muted. This fits with both broader SoH reopening narrative (Bloomberg discussed how traffic continues to flow) and expectations for some headline volatility as weaker oil price backdrop complicates Iran's leverage. Walmart announces price cuts: Walmart confirmed it is lowering prices on beef, grilling essentials and thousands of summer favorites. Stock was recently down ~20% from its mid-May peak. Valuation, pressure on lower-income households and grocery price war concerns flagged as overhangs. However, Walmart also viewed as relative price war winner (market share gains/trade down). Digital momentum the other big bullish talking point for stock. Street bullish on SpaceX: Flurry of buy-equivalent initiations on SpaceX, which joins Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday. Reports focused on space (rockets, Starship), connectivity (Starlink) and AI, along with lots of multitrillion-dollar TAM talk. Morgan Stanley seemed to have most aggressive price target at $300, which implies 87% upside from current level. Stock up ~20% since its IPO. Banks look at buying Fiserv payments network: Multiple outlets (Reuters, link ) reported a consortium of banks has held preliminary talks about acquiring a network from Fiserv that would allow them to bypass federal debit-card fee limits. However, also highlighted concerns about political backlash. Early sell-side takeaways noted development could present headwind for shares of Visa and Mastercard. China competition for the frontier models: One of the big themes in AI revolves around Chinese competition for the frontier LLMs out of Anthropic and OpenAI. Nikkei latest to discuss this dynamic. Cost efficiency the big driver behind adoption by US businesses, with high-performing Chinese models sometimes at one-twentieth the price of frontier models. AI sovereignty theme another recent area of scrutiny for the frontier LLMs. Private credit headlines look better: Alts found some reprieve last week with help from better-than-feared redemption dynamics at Blue Owl. Bloomberg recently reported redemption requests also slowed at KKR FS Income Trust in Q2, falling to 1.65% from 6.3% in the prior Q. Dampened SaaSpocalypse fears another area of focus when it comes to private credit. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 14:54	Afternoon Headlines: Corporate: Microsoft announces 4,800 job cuts mostly in Xbox unit; four gaming studios within Xbox to go independent (CNBC) Micron and Ford sign long-term semiconductor supply agreement for vehicles (Reuters) Klarna applies for US bank charter as it pushes to expand beyond 'buy now, pay later" (CNBC) Lockheed Martin acquiring naval-defense firm Ultra Maritime for $3.45B (Reuters) AI: Anthropic sent a letter to US lawmakers on Alibaba copying AI; warns Chinese models catching up (NY Times) Iran war: Maersk says it will sail ship through Suez Canal and Red Sea for first time since outbreak of war, signaling confidence in ceasefire (FT) Markets: Blackrock, Vanguard emerging-market ETFs see record performance gap over South Korea index split (Bloomberg) Central banks: Warsh says forward guidance can be valuable tool, also says it can hinder rather than help policy transmission (Reuters, FT) ECB's Schnabel says European economy not back to pre-war state despite falling oil prices, says price pressures continue (Reuters) Economy: Retailers rolling out back-to-school promos earlier, households increasingly looking for discounts as affordability pressures persist (Reuters) Global supply chain pressures easing from recent highs as Mideast situation cools (Reuters) Energy: China purchases 26M barrels of oil from Middle East producers for July and August delivery, receives deep discounts from Saudi Arabia (FT) Geopolitics: Trump says he will host China's Xi sometime around 24-Sep (Bloomberg) Germany planning to borrow more than €800B by 2030 to help bring defense spending to highest levels since Cold War (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: BABA, F, KLAR, LMT, MSFT, MU, +ANTHROPIC...(more)	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 13:26	Fed's Waller says forward guidance valuable, but only in certain cases: Speaking at a conference in Rome, Fed Governor Waller said he believes forward guidance can be a valuable tool if used carefully, helping guide the public on the future path of interest rates (Reuters, Bloomberg). Also said when forward guidance works, it can change economic conditions more quickly than adjusting policy rate alone. More positive comments on forward guidance a bit of a deviation from Chair Warsh, who recently argued forward guidance can handcuff Fed in responding to new economic developments. However, also cautioned forward guidance should be flexible, saying too rigid guidance could hinder policymaking, and in some cases it should be used at all. Also noted forward guidance tied the hands of Fed over 2020 and 2021, leading to unnecessary delays in hiking rates and contributing to surge in inflation (FT). Waller said he thinks labor market stabilizing, allowing policymakers to focus on inflation. Also said he prefers inflation setting inflation target as a range, though changing target now would lack credibility. Not much from Waller on policy outlook, similar to last week's comments from Warsh, who also declined to signal any policy forecasts. However, Warsh's comments interpreted as dovish, saying inflation expectations have fallen and inflation risks have come down in recent weeks (NY Times). Markets pricing 29 bp of hikes through year-end, little changed w/w though down from over 40 bp following June FOMC meeting. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 12:14	Monday midday check-in: Momentum bounce: Momentum factor the big outperformer today. Recent weakness largely chalked up to positioning and seasonality, though potential Meta foray into cloud and memory capacity/competition headlines also flagged. Pretty quiet from an AI headline perspective today. Power piece of the infrastructure narrative in focus with TeraWulf announcing 20-year, $19B lease agreement with Anthropic. Broadening out trade struggles: Broadening out trade a laggard despite some positive sell-side commentary (Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan). Equal-weight S&P trailing by ~70 bp. While small caps, big banks and machinery faring well, a number of consumer-facing groups under pressure. Restaurants, retail (particularly lower-K), food and beverages among the notable decliners. Homebuilders also weaker despite a mostly lower rate backdrop. ISM services in line: Headline ISM services slipped to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May but in line with consensus. New orders pulled back but still firmly in expansion. Employment expanded for first time in four months and prices fell below 70 for first time since February. Respondent commentary highlighted still elevated cost pressure and fairly resilient demand backdrop with continued tailwind from AI infrastructure boom. More M&A: M&A remains a big market theme following $2.8T in global activity in 1H, including record 47 deals valued at $10B+ (FT). Solstice to acquire Element Solutions in a cash-and-stock deal valued at ~$14.5B. Lockheed Martin to acquire naval defense company Ultra Maritime for $3.45B. Auto parts also in focus (and weak) with report O'Reilly could bid for Genuine Parts Company's auto business in $10B+ deal. Nearly $120B in Treasury supply hits this week: Treasury to sell $58B of 3-year notes on Tuesday, $39B of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22B of 30-year bonds on Thursday. 30-year yield back around 5% today. Some scrutiny surrounding inability of bonds to take more advantage of oil price weakness/decline in inflation expectations (which Warsh acknowledged last week). Structural dynamics continue to get attention. Waller says forward guidance more art than science: Fed Governor Waller did not provide any color on potential near-term policy direction with speech in Italy. Argued forward guidance more art than science. Noted when it works, it can change economic conditions more quickly than adjusting policy rate alone. However, can impair policy transmission when too strong or rigid, or when there are potentially different economic scenarios (with close probabilities). Bank previews rolling in ahead of earnings next week: JPMorgan talked up tailwind from IB and trading, while also noting NII forecasted to rise modestly and expense growth likely to remain contained with stable credit quality. However, did highlight C&I loan growth deceleration and private credit uncertainty. Goldman Sachs said it expects focus to be on NII outlook, revenue increase from ECM and M&A and prospects for longer-term operating leverage cycle. Deregulatory push: Deregulation has been largely off the radar after getting a lot of attention during first Trump administration. However, Bloomberg discussed coming deregulatory push by the White House. Noted it plans to eliminate 702 existing administrative rules, projecting $1.5T in savings for the economy. Bulk of savings expected to come from unwinding of climate policies. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 11:37	StreetAccount Event Preview: June FOMC minutes Minutes to the 16-17 June FOMC meeting out Wednesday (8-Jul, 14 ET). Recall meeting ended with no change to policy rate, as expected, though policy statement included a dramatic shortening and SEP showed nine members (half of those who offered projections) forecasting hikes this year. Some takeaways following meeting called it clearly hawkish, saw greater odds of a hawkish pivot this year to first hike since mid-2023. Minutes previews noted economists looking for more color around what it would take for Fed to hike, as any clues around Fed's reaction function particularly relevant given removal of forward guidance. Also looking for more details on economic outlook assumptions, views around balance of risks given shifting Iran situation. Rate hike odds have softened since the meeting. While oil prices have fallen following US/Iran agreement, Chair Warsh also said last week inflation risks had come down though reiterated pledge to deliver price stability (Bloomberg). Street remains split on rate path outlook. BofA recently reiterated its call for three rate hikes this year, starting in September. Argued labor market data not as dovish as market suggests, latest unemployment rate below full range of SEP forecasts for year-end. Morgan Stanley said recent labor market and inflation trends suggest hold through year-end. However, Citi recently said soft job growth in June downward revisions will relieve hawkish concerns and case for hikes disappearing, continue to look for rate cuts starting in October. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 11:19	Some Street caution around momentum unwind, extended positioning: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson wrote broadening thesis continues to gain momentum as semis fade and high capex/sales starts to consolidate, which may soon encourage more capex discipline. Sees rotation out of semis and into hyperscalers, other broadening trades, though momentum unwind likely to lead to choppy, weaker market performance in near-term. Goldman Sachs' trading desk noted momentum last week saw worst two day performance since 2020 (down 18%), citing factors including big 1H outperformance, limited liquidity, extreme factor volatility, and end-of-quarter dynamics. However, also noted trade still remains extremely crowded, floor could be ~50% selloff (doubling 24% selloff since peak) if unwind continues. BofA strategists late last week cautioned its Bull & Bear indicator jumped from 9.1 to 9.5. Said move driven by more bullish hedge fund positioning, including reducing both S&P 500 futures shorts, VIX futures longs. Noted indicator sell signal was triggered 20-May, which has preceded average loss for global stocks over subsequent two to three months of 2-3% in 17 instances since 2002. Evercore ISI strategists highlighted potential upside to market performance from easing of Iran risks, noting S&P 500 has historically risen ~17% in year after oil exits from what it describes as a danger zone (falling below 24 month average after surging 40% above that level). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 10:15	June ISM Services in line; employment up, prices down: June ISM Services came in at 54.0 vs consensus 54.0 and May's 54.5; new orders fell m/m to 55.1 from 57.3; inventories down to 51.2 from 62.5, second-lowest level since Oct-25; supplier deliveries declined to 54.4 from 55.2. Employment rose to 51.2 from 47.9, first expansion in four months; prices decreased to 67.7 from 71.2, first time below 70 since Feb-26. Respondent feedback had some mixed takeaways; cost pressures remained elevated, with respondents citing higher fuel, fertilizer, freight, labor, and material costs alongside tariffs; however, demand was generally resilient (particularly in construction, infrastructure, health care) while AI/data center-related activity continued to provide support. Meanwhile, Final June S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 vs consensus 51.3, which was also the flash reading for June; new orders grew at the fastest pace since Feb-26 amid improving demand and spending tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Weak business conditions continued to weigh on hiring, with employment declining for the third time in four months; input costs rose sharply due to labor expenses, tariffs, and higher fuel, though cost inflation slowed to its weakest pace since Feb-26. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
06-Jul-2026 07:29	Monday morning check-in: Momentum bounce: Momentum bounce the big story today though no specific catalyst for the move. Some focus on extent of recent unwind. Goldman Sachs noted momentum down 24% since its peak, the worst selloff since Q1 2023, compared to an average drawdown of ~12%. Pointed out that buying the dip in momentum has historically paid off. SoH traffic recovering, OPEC+ raises quota: Nothing incremental on US-Iran negotiations, which are currently paused for observance period surrounding Khamenei's funeral. Despite recent headline volatility surrounding SoH routing, reopening narrative remains intact. Also more discussion in the press (see here and here) about a potential glut. Elsewhere, OPEC+ raised its output target by another 188K bpd. High earnings bar, earnings bubble concerns: Some concerns about a very high bar going into an earnings season expected to deliver second straight Q of 20%+ growth. According to FactSet, bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate increased by 3.4% over course of Q vs average 5-, 10- and 20-year declines of 2.0%, 2.7% and 4.2%. FT discussed how ramp in growth expectations has started to raise concerns about an earnings bubble. FOMC minutes expected to be highlight of the week: June FOMC minutes out Wednesday at 14:00. Expected to get outsized scrutiny for myriad reasons, including statement overhaul/no forward guidance, hawkish dots, Warsh's comments about a "good family fight", reaction function uncertainty. Three Fed speakers also on tap this week (Waller, Williams, Logan). Deutsche Bank latest to discuss dearth of Fedspeak amid Warsh's push for less communication. Positioning, flows and sentiment: Deutsche Bank said its measure of aggregate equity positioning remained near neutral last week (0.03sd, 41st percentile). Systematic strategies modestly overweight and discretionary investor positioning moderately underweight. BofA Flow Show report noted US equities saw outflows of $17.2B, the most since March. AAII bull-bear spread fell to -10.9% in week-ended 1-Jul from +8.8% in prior week. Samsung earnings expected to highlight memory tailwind: Samsung set to release preliminary Q2 results on Tuesday. As was the case with the blowout results from Micron last month, print expected to highlight the surging AI-driven demand (and surging prices) for memory chips. Consensus is for a roughly 18-fold y/y increase in operating profit, which would mark third straight record. Revenue expected to jump nearly 130%. AI messaging on jobs more constructive: AI impact on jobs one of biggest macro debates. Challenger noted AI led reasons for job cuts for fourth consecutive month in June. Goldman Sachs said it has seen employment drags in specific industries where AI-use cases have been established but offset by jobs driven by AI infrastructure. Financial press discussed how doomsday scenarios have given way to a heightened emphasis on job creation and productivity boosts (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Jul-2026 11:09	StreetAccount Macro Update: Weekend Headlines AI: Anthropic has begun early-stage work on its own AI chip; in talks with Samsung on custom chip (TechCrunch) Tesla implementing limits on how much its employees can spend on AI amid surge in token costs (The Information) Anthropic and White House have not discussed possible equity stake for US government (Reuters) Meta is considering Samsung over TSMC to produce its next-gen AI chips; discussions ongoing (Yahoo Finance) ARM CEO says CPU demand is "off the charts" thanks to the rise of agentic AI (link) SK Hynix is betting its $29B US listing will unlock AI-driven valuation upside (Bloomberg) Corporate: Foxconn Q2 revenue jumps 40% y/y on strong demand for AI products (US News) Uber is pausing its planned food delivery expansion in Europe (Reuters, FT) Kalshi and Polymarket volumes soared to new record highs in June amid World Cup betting (CNBC) GFL Environmental considering take-private transaction after receiving interest from firms (Bloomberg) Markets: AI fears are threatening an already strained private software debt market (link) Average US equity funds returned 17.1% in Q2, lifting year-to-date gains to 13.4% (link) Indian equities are regaining favor as more investors seek shelter from AI volatility (Bloomberg) JPMogran forecasts $4,500 gold price in Q4, flags downside risks due to potential rate hikes (Reuters) Iran / Geopolitics: New regime has emerged in Iran comprised of younger, uncompromising hardliners more focused on security (Washington Post) Iran says China will get service fee concessions in Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg) Mojtaba Khamenie, new assumed leader of Iran, fails to make appearance at his father's funeral (Reuters) Trump officials reportedly increasingly skeptical of US relationship with Netanyahu (Axios) Cargo vessel in the Red Sea has reported coming under attack; Iran-backed Houthi rebels suspected (CNBC) China is ramping up pressure on Taiwan with newly expanded coast guard patrols (NYT) Energy: OPEC+ agrees to a further increase in output targets from August by 188K bpd (CNBC) Sharp drop in oil prices, high global stockpiles rekindling fears over new oil supply glut (Bloomberg) Ukraine is greatly intensifying its strikes on Russian energy assets, causing significant fuel crisis in Russia (FT) Russia's St Petersburg region oil terminal came under a major Ukrainian drone attack overnight (Reuters) Total CEO says Middle East oil producers are desperate to sell excess crude inventories (Bloomberg) Qatar announces maritime activities will resume with immediate effect (Reuters) Crypto: Iran, Russia, North Korea have dramatically increased use of cryptocurrencies to dodge US sanctions (link) Majority of retail investors who bought Trump's branded crypto coins are underwater; $TRUMP coin down 97% from peak (NYT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: ARM, META, TSLA, UBER, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI, +POLYMKT...(more)	show story hide story
02-Jul-2026 13:48	StreetAccount Event Recap: June nonfarm payrolls June nonfarm payrolls rose 57K, notably softer than market expectations for 110-115K. April and May were each revised down, by a combined 74K. With these revisions, the 3M average dropped from 188K in May to 111K after today's report (though still above replacement-level estimates). The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.2% (lowest since July '25) after three months at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, in line with forecasts and level with May. On the unemployment rate, report noted m/m decrease in total unemployed workers but also a notable decline in the labor-force participation rate to 61.5% from 61.8%; now at its lowest level since March 2021. This metric had yet to return to pre-Covid levels and has been declining since mid-2023. Analysts observed this reflected a very large drop in participation for workers aged 25-34, indeed the largest one-month drop in series history outside Covid. The 61K decline in leisure/hospitality jobs garnered some attention after a 70K gain in May. Some analysts initially attributed that to hiring ahead of the World Cup, though today's notes are pulling back on that thesis. In previews, JP Morgan had referenced the impact of an earlier-than-usual Memorial Day; Citi had suggested earlier summer hiring could reverse as soon as June. Other areas continued to see growth, including professional/business services (+36K), social assistance (+25K), and healthcare (+22K but below recent trends). Several previews had expected some return to month-to-month volatility in job growth, and this view appears to have been borne out. But several recaps observed that the slowing to more moderate growth still reflects general health in the labor market (though Citi remained pessimistic, looking for weaker growth and higher unemployment later this year. As far as policy implications, analysts suggested the June report may make the Fed's case for nearer-term hiking even harder to make (Fedwatch odds still see a 25 bp hike as likely in September). Still-contained growth in average hourly earnings also supports the notion that the labor market is not currently a source of inflation risk. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Jul-2026 12:11	Bearish talking points for (holiday-shortened) week-ended 2-Jul: Weaker June employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased just 57K, well below the ~110K consensus and the 129K gain in May, which itself was revised down from 172K. Household survey revealed a 507K decline in number of employed people. While unemployment rate ticked down 0.1pp to a lower-than-expected 4.2%, labor force participation rate fell 0.3pp. Meta's reported potential foray into cloud business exacerbated weakness in AI trade on Wednesday, with SOX down nearly 6.5%. While already widely discussed, report triggered concerns about excess capacity and the potential for a shift in momentum surrounding the broader AI infrastructure narrative. Neoclouds hit the hardest by the news. Crowded memory trade lagged (and volatility remained elevated). Market structure/concentration/seasonality received some attention coming off a monster Q2. While widely previewed, South Korean investment announcements from Samsung and SK Hynix were also blamed. The other big story revolved around Apple's push (including WH lobbying) to purchase memory chips from Chinese suppliers. Rates pushed higher this week despite continued oil pullback, softer June NFP and Warsh comments about how inflation expectations/risk have come down in recent weeks. Higher rate backdrop/hawkish Fed spin mentioned as a potential stumbling block for further outperformance in the broadening out trade, particularly small caps. Frontier LLMs facing myriad challenges, including from China models, corporate cost rationalization push and national security gating (despite this week's reprieve for Anthropic). More discussion this week about how GLM-5.2 has largely closed the gap with the leading frontier models at a fraction of the cost. AWS also discussed how enterprises can save from better matching task complexity to model cost. Consumer sentiment still soft as Conference Board index of consumer confidence increased to 91.2 in June from a May reading that was revised down by 2.5 points to 90.2, well below the 94.7 consensus. June uptick driven by expectations component (oil helped), while present situation declined. Labor differential deteriorated to 2.4%, the lowest since early 2021. SCOTUS ruling still leaves door open for Fed independence scrutiny. Some concern that the narrow 5-4 ruling left a lot unresolved, including what would meet the "for cause" threshold and what would be the right venue for Cook to address the allegations. JPMorgan also discussed how future courts may not be so quick to equate central bank independence with monetary policy independence. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Jul-2026 12:10	Bullish talking points for (holiday-shortened) week-ended 2-Jul: Mag 7 bounced this week after coming under pressure in June with the group down ~9%. The Apple and Meta headlines helped the memory input cost pressure and capex narratives though technical dynamics were also flagged. Goldman Sachs noted early in the week that gross and net exposures were approaching respective three-year lows in 4^th and 6^th percentile. Meta rallied on cloud headlines and excess capacity concerns received pushback. Report Meta working on plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to compute and AI models spun as a big positive from a capital discipline and monetization standpoint. Also skepticism about broader excess capacity concerns with Meta still bidding for compute. ISM manufacturing continued to support solid macro backdrop narrative, despite coming in a bit below expectations. June reading still second-strongest in two years. New orders remained elevated at 56.0, employment improved (though still in contraction) and prices paid (still elevated) saw biggest decline in four years. Percentage of positive respondent commentary improved nearly 10pp to 34%. Favorable post-earnings price action in the bulk of the notable reporters this week. Top-line/turnaround timing concerns at Nike offset by low bar and quicker GM inflection. MSC Industrial volumes returned to positive territory. AeroVironment helped by leverage to drone proliferation and defense and space programs. General Mills takeaways highlighted better-than-feared guidance and cost-savings push. Oil continued to decline despite flare-up in kinetic activity in the Middle East late last week and continued jawboning from Iran regarding control of SoH. Pullback chalked up to Sunday agreement to stop attacks, progress on US-Iran talks (no breakthroughs, but will continue) and more importantly, SoH reopening momentum and related near-term supply glut headlines. Fed independence concerns dampened by SCOTUS ruling that President Trump cannot remove Fed Governor Cook from her position while lower courts continue to debate the case. Highlighted concern president could remove any member of the Fed "at any time, for any reason, without any notice before, and without any judicial check after". Upcoming Q2 earnings season expected to deliver second straight Q of 20%+ growth. Early sell-side previews upbeat, highlighting tailwind from AI infrastructure boom (semi industry alone expected to account for nearly half of total S&P 500 earnings growth). Solid macro, higher oil prices and weaker dollar some of the other positives for Q2 earnings. Financial press also discussed elevated profit margins. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Jul-2026 08:52	June nonfarm payrolls softer than expected; jobless claims remain steady: June nonfarm payrolls of 57K vs consensus 110K, making it the softest headline print since Feb-26, though still roughly in line with the average monthly change over past 12 months (+36K); May's headline revised down to 129K from 172K, while April's headline revised down to 148K from 179K. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% m/m, in line with consensus and May's reading; annualized average hourly earnings of 3.5%, in line with consensus though slightly higher than May's 3.4%. June unemployment rate came in at 4.2% vs consensus 4.3% and May's 4.3%; labor force participation rate of 61.5%, down from May's 61.8%. Breaking down the report, biggest areas of growth seen in healthcare/social assistance (+47K) and professional/business services (+36K), while most notable decline seen in leisure/hospitality (-61K); government hiring mostly flat (+8K). Elsewhere, initial claims came in at +215K vs consensus +220K and previous week's revised 216K (was 215K); continuing claims came in at 1814K vs consensus 1810K and prior week's revised 1812K (was 1821K). Following the softer-than-expected NFP report, July Fed expectations saw dovish shift, with CME FedWatch Tool now implying 83% probability of a hold and 17% chance of a hike, versus 68% and 32%, respectively, before the release. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Jul-2026 07:11	Thursday morning check-in: More momentum unwinding: AI infrastructure trade weakness in focus with excess capacity concerns surrounding potential Meta move into cloud business and competition concerns in memory with Apple reportedly in talks with Chinese suppliers among the latest drivers. Technical dynamics also flagged (after market structure dominated narrative last week). Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs discussed stretched positioning and seasonal headwinds. Apple looking to China for memory: Apple in talks to purchase memory chips from Chinese suppliers CXMT and YMTC, according to Bloomberg. Similar to recent FT report, article also discussed Apple's lobbying push in Washington for some political cover (Chinese companies are on a Pentagon blacklist). Follows last week's price increase announcement from Apple in response to surge in memory prices. Potential Meta cloud foray drives AI trade debate: Lot of debate about AI trade implications from an expected move by Meta to sell access to compute and AI models. Big concern is that it provides a negative signal for broader hyperscaler capex and AI compute demand. However, plenty of pushback with Meta still bidding for compute. Also some positive spin surrounding capex optimization/discipline, which could help with broader hyperscaler ROI scrutiny. June expected to mark another month of 100K+ growth in NFP: Nonfarm payrolls expected to increase ~110K in June following a 172K gain in May. Risk seems to be skewed to the upside with several firms flagging potential World Cup boost, while seasonality also cited as supportive. Previews also highlighted the solid labor market signaling from initial claims and weekly ADP private payrolls. Unemployment rate expected unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings seen up 0.3%. Oil down again: Oil down for a third straight session following a Monday bounce driven by a flare-up in kinetic activity in the Middle East late last week. SoH reopening traction and related supply glut headlines the big story behind oil weakness. Oil supply through SoH now over 10M bpd (Bloomberg). Saudis have ramped up exports from Ras Tanura and are currently offering crude to Asian customers on a (lower) spot pricing basis (Reuters). Investor sentiment soft, Street upbeat: AAII bull-bear spread fell to -10.9% in week-ended 1-Jul from +8.8% in prior week. Spread has averaged -1.1% thus far in 2026. At the other end of the spectrum, BofA said its Sell Side Indicator, which measures strategists' average recommended allocation to equities in a balanced fund, was unchanged at 56.2% in June, holding at highest level since February 2025. Quiet week ahead: Not much going on the week of 6-Jul. On the macro front, the highlights are ISM services on Monday and the June FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Minutes will get outsized scrutiny given changes (shorter statement, no forward guidance) implemented under new Fed Chair Warsh and potential discussion of what else may be on tap. Early Q2 reporters include PepsiCo on Thursday and Delta on Friday. Earnings season up next: Q2 earnings season unofficially kicks off week of 13-Jul. According to FactSet, Street currently looking for S&P 500 earnings growth of ~23%. AI compute and capex demand once again set to provide the big earnings tailwind (semi industry alone expected to account for nearly half of total S&P 500 earnings growth). Solid macro, higher oil prices and weaker dollar some of the other positives for Q2 earnings. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jul-2026 15:06	Afternoon Headlines: Corporate: Meta working on plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to compute and AI models (Bloomberg) Apple said to be reducing production plans on iPhone17 lineup amid lower shipment forecasts (MacRumors) General Motors and Micron sign long-term memory chip supply deal (Quartz) Short interest in SpaceX now stands at 31% of free float vs ~13% a week earlier (Reuters) Nissan is working to cut costs on Mexico-made models due to tariffs (Bloomberg) Tesla likely delivered around 396,466 vehicles worldwide in Q2, according to estimates (Bloomberg) GM's Q2 US sales fall on discontinued models, EV slump; trucks and SUVs steady (Reuters) Fintech firm Plaid considering an IPO, secured an $8B valuation in a funding round last year (Bloomberg) AI: Palantir CEO says "something has gone completely wrong" with OpenAI, Anthropic token models (CNBC) Uber dismisses two tech leaders at its AI data labeling business as part of broader leadership change (Bloomberg) Trade / Tariffs: US decides against renewing its trade deal with Canada and Mexico; will conduct annual reviews of the pact (Bloomberg) Economy: Average US car payment hit record high of $777 per month in Q2 (Bloomberg) US construction spending fell 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in May (Reuters) Central banks: Fed Chair Warsh says inflation expectations and risks have eased in recent weeks, refrains (again) from forward guidance, reaction function talk (NY Times) Warsh selects former BoE head Mervyn King to lead communications task force (Bloomberg) Energy: US-Iran talks focused on Strait of Hormuz; US looking to convince in Iran it is better off with ability to sell oil without sanctions than fees (Axios) Resurgence in Hormuz traffic represents challenges to Iran's leverage over the strait (Bloomberg) Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 3.8M barrels during the week ending 26-Jun (Oilprice.com) Renewables accounted for a record-high 58% of Germany's electricity consumption in 1H26 (Oilprice.com) Washington: Trump administration's limits on student loan forgiveness program blocked by two judges (CNBC) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, GM, META, PLTR, SPCX, TSLA, UBER, +ANTHROPIC, +OPEANAI...(more)	show story hide story
01-Jul-2026 12:05	Wednesday midday check-in: Big momentum unwind Momentum under pressure today with memory and semis big decliners. Seems to be more about market structure than anything fundamental, a dynamic that received a lot of attention amid last month's volatility. Group coming off a huge Q2 that saw SOX rally ~88%, with Micron and Sandisk both up ~250%. Other parts of tech faring well today with strong gains in Mag 7, software and China names. Lots of moving pieces in the opening Q3 price action: Momentum unwind and rotations into other pockets of tech the big story today. Lot of moving pieces elsewhere, driving rotation chatter. Financials, food, apparel & accessories, precious metals, restaurants, media and staffing among the standouts. Staples retailers, Machinery (broadening out trade standout in June), autos, pharma, industrial metals, energy and utilities some of the laggards. Walmart weak: Walmart under pressure today and stock now down ~20% from its peak (fell more than 7% following earnings in late May). Like a lot of the other big moves today, hard to fit an explanation to the price action. Coming out of Q1 results, market remained positive on share gains and digital momentum, though valuation/expectations, softening consumer sentiment (low end) and Kroger price cut headlines all flagged as overhangs. Warsh pushes back against reaction function scrutiny: As expected, nothing incremental on policy from new Fed Chair Warsh. However, noted inflation expectations and risks have come down. Also leaned dovish on AI. Pushed back against scrutiny surrounding unwillingness to discuss Fed's reaction function, noting declines in market vol, rates and inflation expectations. Warsh also said task force news likely next week. Bloomberg reported he tapped former BoE head King to lead communications task force. Meta getting into cloud business: Meta boosted by Bloomberg report it is working on plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to compute and AI models. Move has been widely speculated and CEO Zuckerberg said back in May "it's definitely on the table". Fits with efforts to boost capex boom ROI. Also plays into some of the capacity competition concerns that were cited as one of a number of hyperscaler headwinds last month. SpaceX also ramping up compute presence. ISM manufacturing slips in June but still solid: ISM manufacturing slipped to 53.3 in June from two-year high of 54.0 in May. New orders ticked down to 56.0 from 56.8. However, employment increased to 49.7 from 48.6 and prices paid fell to 73.0 from 82.1. While respondent commentary mixed to negative, share of positive comments went up and report still a key input for the solid macro backdrop narrative (new orders good leading indicator of both capex and S&P 500 earnings growth). ADP private payrolls a bit light, NFP tomorrow: ADP private payrolls up 98K in June, down from 122K in May and below consensus estimates in the 110-120K range. Challenger Layoffs came in at just under 46K in June, down 53% m/m and slowest pace since last December. Noted AI led reasons for cuts for fourth consecutive month. Employment report out tomorrow. Street looking for a ~110K increase in nonfarm payrolls in June. Not just Warsh who is not saying much: No surprise that new Fed Chair Warsh did not say much at ECB conference today. Also some focus on lower frequency of Fed speakers since June FOMC meeting. BofA noted there have only been 12 Fed speeches/interviews in the last two weeks vs the 23 average for the two weeks following meetings (going back to 2022). However, did point out that seasonal dynamics may be a factor. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jul-2026 10:14	June ISM Manufacturing mostly in line; prices index lower, employment slightly higher: June ISM Manufacturing came in at 53.3 vs consensus 54.0 and May's 54.0; new orders fell to 56.0 from 56.8 in May, though still in expansion for sixth straight month; production fell to 52.2 from 54.3. Employment rose to 49.7 from 48.6; prices index fell to 73.0 from 82.1, though still in expansion territory. Respondent feedback was mixed to slightly negative, with Middle East tensions and tariff uncertainty driving elevated input costs; some expect pricing to normalize if Iran tensions ease; demand trends remained mixed, with AI, semis, and defense-related spending staying strong, while industrial, medical, and broader consumer more cautious. Final June PMI Manufacturing came in at 53.9 vs consensus 55.5 and down from May's 55.1; both output and new orders rose at slower, but still historically elevated rates. Higher raw material costs continued to drive input cost inflation, though at a slower pace than May, while selling price inflation eased to three-month low; employment remained weak, with job cuts accelerating to fastest pace since May-20 and, excluding the pandemic, the quickest since Oct-09. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jul-2026 08:40	June ADP private payrolls below consensus: June ADP Private Payrolls increased 98K m/m vs consensus for 113K increase; May's headline was unrevised at 122K; bulk of hiring was in services-providing industries, gaining 96K jobs from May. Median pay gain for job-stayers was little changed at 4.4%, while y/y pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 6.6% from 6.5% Job gains seen in education/health services (+48K), trade/transport/utilities (+15K), financial activities (+14K), other services (+8K), information (+7K), manufacturing (+5K), construction (+2K), leisure/hospitality (+2K), and professional/business services (+2K); job declines only seen in natural resources/mining (-5K). Small-sized establishments again accounted for over half of the topline job growth, mostly coming from firms with 1-19 employees. Report noted job growth was uneven in June amid slowdown in hiring within certain industries; leisure and hospitality delivered its sixth month of weak hiring. Analyst previews suggested an NFP print in the +75K to +125K range would represent the "goldilocks" outcome for equities, as hotter reading could increase expectations for Fed rate hikes. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jul-2026 07:31	Wednesday morning check-in: Big Q2 rally: S&P 500 up nearly 15% in Q2 while Nasdaq jumped nearly 21.5%. Marked best quarterly performance for both since Q2 of 2020. Semis the standout with SOX up ~88%, a record rally going back to 1993. AI compute and capex demand narrative the big driver. Outsized earnings growth (20%+), diplomatic (albeit volatile) traction in Middle East, positive macro surprise momentum and a hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations the other big themes. Trump favors continued talks with Iran over renewed military action: Geopolitical headline volatility remains elevated. Much of the focus has revolved around IRGC's push to assert leverage over SoH. However, seems to be more noise than news for oil market, particularly amid expectations diplomatic resolution efforts will continue. While Trump has discussed a restart of full-scale kinetic activity, he reportedly has decided to pursue diplomatic talks for now and fine with negotiations going beyond 18-Aug deadline (link) Not much expected from Warsh: New Fed Chair Warsh speaks at ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal this morning. However, similar to press conference that followed June FOMC meeting, not expected to provide any incremental policy/reaction function color. Warsh largely stuck to reiterating language from post-meeting statement, asserting the Fed will deliver on price stability and talking up the creation of special task forces. Nike turnaround more challenging: Nike a post-earnings underperformer despite better fiscal Q4 results and a low bar. Maintained guide for flattish EPS through 1H27, though composition shift attracted some scrutiny. Revenue now expected down low-to-mid single digits vs. prior low single digits, with GM inflection pulled forward. Fit with concerns about more challenging market environment/delayed demand recovery/complicated turnaround. More Microsoft job cuts: Microsoft, which has been a notable laggard in Mag 7 space (down 17%+ in June and nearly 23% ytd), set to announce another round of layoffs, according to Business Insider. Expected to impact thousands of roles, including sales and consulting. However, expected to be smaller than layoffs last year, amounting to less than 2.5% of company's workforce. Job cuts part of push to control costs amid broader ramp in AI spending (and monetization scrutiny). US lifts export controls on Anthropic: US Commerce Dept has lifted export restrictions on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 AI model. Public access expected to be restored on Wednesday. Follows Trump administration decision last week to allow Anthropic to restore access to Mythos 5 for a select group of government-approved entities. Initial restrictions played into concerns that national security gating could hamper competition with China and even be politicized. Seasonally strong July: Seasonality still a bright spot with July representing the second-best month for the S&P 500 going back the last ten years. Inflow dynamics flagged as supportive. JPMorgan has pointed out that over the past ten years, S&P 500 has averaged a +3.37% return in July with a 100% hit rate. Added that July has been best month for NDX over past ten years, averaging a +4.35% return with a 90% hit rate. Q2 earnings should be able to beat high bar: Street continues to shift its attention to upcoming Q2 earnings season. Despite the highest consensus growth expectation going into an earnings season, Deutsche Bank said it's looking for a ~3% beat, which it said would put y/y earnings growth at 29.3%. Cited supportive macro backdrop, higher oil prices, a weaker dollar and an acceleration in AI-related earnings. Market structure over macro: Citadel Securities discussed how market structure seemed to be the biggest story in 1H26, something it expects will continue in 2H. Highlighted elevated concentration, acceleration of passive flows, heightened retail demand and proliferation of leveraged trades. Also noted how these dynamics have changed the behavior of volatility. Market structure received a lot of attention last month with the momentum trade volatility. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jun-2026 15:04	Afternoon Headlines: M&A: Warner Bros-Paramount merger could face regulatory intervention from UK, according to officials (Reuters) Schneider Electric to buy Cognite for $3.1B to expand its industrial data and AI software business (Bloomberg) Patrick Industries, LCI Industries agree to merge in all-stock deal (Bloomberg) Corporate: Merck and AbbVie subject to US government investigation into clinical trials conducted in China (US News) FDA authorizes Philip Morris to market Zyn nicotine pouches as less harmful than cigarettes (Bloomberg) Judge rejects Meta's bid to dismiss state AGs' addiction lawsuits (Reuters) Apple to allow shoppers to use Amex points for payment (Bloomberg) AI: OpenAI discovers a new way to cut inference costs in half with new optimization method (The Information) Anthropic launches Claude Science to help accelerate pace of scientific discovery and development of healthcare interventions (link) AWS announces $1B investment in new unit that will help its customers build and deploy AI systems (CNBC) OpenAI economist says rise of AI will not render human workers irrelevant (Bloomberg) Google's AI buildout led to record use of electricity and water last year (Axios) Energy Secretary Wright says datacenter concerns "overblown," says advocates will "roll over the opposition" (Reuters) Markets: Nasdaq on track for best quarter since 2020 amid easing Middle East tensions, AI enthusiasm (Bloomberg) Retail investors activity in Mag 7 stocks lowest in four years (Bloomberg) Treasuries set to end June with modest gain, US Treasury Index now little changed on the year (Bloomberg) SEC re-examining approach to ETF regulation after recent wave for prediction market ETF filings (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed's Hammack says AI is fueling inflation, not just an energy story (CNBC) ECB's Rehn says recent energy shock is having a stagflationary impact on economy (Bloomberg) ECB's Dolenc says there is no urgency to hike rates as long as energy markets remain calm (Bloomberg) More central banks plan to cut their dollar holdings than increase them over the next decade for the first time (CNN) Iran war: Netanyahu says IDF to stay in Lebanon until Hezbollah threat removed (Times of Israel) Iran, Oman moving forward with plans to collect Hormuz tolls despite US objections (NY Times) Washington: Supreme Court upholds birthright citizenship; Gorsuch, Alito, Thomas dissent (AP News) Supreme Court rolls back some campaign finance laws, spending caps in win for GOP ahead of midterms (Politico) Supreme Court clears way for US states to impose restrictions on transgender athletes in sports (Reuters) Supreme Court to hear Apple's appeal over Epic App Store fees (Reuters) NPR retracts article claiming Justice Alito had retired (NY Times) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, ABBV, AMZN, GOOGL, MRK, PARA, WVD, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
30-Jun-2026 12:19	Tuesday midday check-in: Semi rally: Semi rally the big story today with the group closing out another strong month and quarter. SOX currently on track for an ~86% rally in Q2, which would mark its strongest on record going back to 1994. AI capex boom the tailwind. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings season, FactSet's Earnings Scorecard shows semi industry expected to account for ~47% of the 23% y/y earnings growth in the S&P 500. Broadening out trade lags: Broadening out trade largely underperforming today. Banks, retail (and several consumer-facing groups), builders and transports some of the laggards. Healthcare, which has also been part of the broadening out theme, another underperformer. Multis better. Nothing specific behind today's move. Trade has outperformed in June on the back of the big selloff in oil and solid macro backdrop narrative. Morgan Stanley also flagged earnings momentum. Mixed macro data: Busy day of economic data, though more important ISM manufacturing and NFP prints out later this week. JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased in May while hiring and quits rates were unchanged. June consumer confidence increased less than expected (from a downwardly revised May reading) while labor differential fell to lowest since 2021. Chicago PMI declined less than expected and remained firmly in expansion in June. Nike reports after the close: Nike reports fiscal Q4 earnings after the close. Previews highlighted low expectations into the print given widely discussed turnaround challenges, though still concerns that FY27 estimates need to come down. CEO told the FT last week that restructuring was taking longer than expected. Traction around NA investments, pace of China recovery, competitive landscape and degree of visibility into FY27 expected to be key areas of focus. ISM manufacturing out Wednesday morning: ISM manufacturing expected to slip to 53.9 in June from 54.0 in May, though this would still mark sixth straight month of expansion and second-highest reading in four years. Strength in ISM manufacturing has been a key input for the stable macro backdrop narrative. New orders index, which expanded at fastest pace since January last month, highlighted as a strong leading indicator of both capex and S&P 500 earnings growth. Seasonally strong July: Seasonality still a bright spot with July representing the second best month for the S&P 500 going back the last ten years. Inflow dynamics flagged as supportive. JPMorgan has pointed out that over the past ten years, S&P 500 has averaged a +3.37% return in July with a 100% hit rate. Added that July has been best month for NDX over past ten years, averaging a +4.35% return with a 90% hit rate. Not all sell-side firms raising their S&P 500 price targets: Multiple year-end 2026 S&P 500 price target increases over the last week or so ahead of Q2. Earnings the widely cited tailwind. However, BofA today left its target unchanged at 7100, implying ~5% downside from current levels. Report highlighted a reversal of levers that boosted market multiple, including asset lightness, balance sheets, capital discipline and earnings quality. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jun-2026 10:20	May job openings essentially unchanged m/m; June consumer confidence below consensus: May JOLTS job openings came in at 7.594K vs consensus 7.300K and April's 7.585K; May's reading is highest since Nov-24; May job openings rate unchanged m/m at 4.6%. Hiring rate was unchanged m/m at 3.3%; quit rate also unchanged at 1.9%; total separations rate unchanged at 3.2%; layoffs and discharges rate ticked up to 1.1% from 1.0%. Meanwhile, June consumer confidence came in at 91.2 vs consensus 94.7 and May's 90.6 (revised from 93.1); Present Situation Index fell m/m to 116.4 from 119.4; Expectations Index rose to 74.4 from 71.4; report noted falling oil prices provided some relief to consumer inflation fears. However, views on labor market worsened with 24.9% of consumers saying jobs were "plentiful," essentially unchanged from 24.8% in May, while 22.5% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," up from 19.8%. Finally, June Chicago PMI came in at 56.7 vs consensus 58.1 and May's 62.7; decline was driven by decreases in New Orders and Production, while rises in Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs and Employment provided some offset; Prices Paid moved to highest since May-22. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jun-2026 08:34	StreetAccount Event Preview: June nonfarm payrolls June's nonfarm payrolls report to be released at 8:30am Eastern on Thursday 2-Jul, a day earlier than usual due to the US Independence Day holiday weekend. Street is looking for a ~115K headline jobs gain after May's surprisingly large 172K, boosted by leisure/hospitality and local government employment. Consensus also sees unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and average hourly earnings at a 0.3% monthly pace. On possible headline revisions, JP Morgan notes May has tended to see negative revisions in recent years, but observes revisions have been positive for three of the past four months. Analyst previews for June generally see a continuation of solid employment growth though an easing from May's pace. Notes highlight strong readings for weekly ADP private employment estimates and still-low jobless claims; Goldman Sachs also notes recent seasonal strength for initial June prints. Several analysts credit some of May's strength to World-Cup related hiring and see additional benefits possible for June (Goldman forecasts a 40K boost) before these temporary positions begin to drop off later this summer. However, Citi observes state-level data did not show leisure/hospitality jobs disproportionately in states hosting games; JP Morgan posits a possible May impact from early Memorial Day timing (and a potential June payback). Citi offers a contrarian view of labor-market strength, expecting 25K in headline job gains and arguing recent payroll data is not a sign of sustainably strong demand for workers. It references rising initial claims over the June reference period, a still-low hiring rate, declining labor-force participation, and falling small-business hiring plans. Analysts broadly see the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for what would be the fourth consecutive month. Some previews note the recent decline in labor-force participation as a potential downward distortion, though Jefferies observes prime-age participation is back near highest levels since 2000. JP Morgan argues recent rises in continuing jobless claims appear to reflect residual seasonality. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
30-Jun-2026 07:34	Tuesday morning check-in: Waiting for Warsh and NFP: New Fed Chair Warsh speaks at ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday morning. However, similar to June FOMC meeting, not expected to provide any incremental policy color. June employment report hits on Thursday (given the Friday holiday). Nonfarm payrolls expected to increase ~115K in June following a 172K gain in May. One more day of rebalancing headwind talk: In its latest update on month/quarter-end rebalancing, Goldman Sachs estimated that US pensions have $24B of US equities to sell. Noted this is in the 92^nd percentile of absolute dollar value going back to 2000. Deutsche Bank estimated defined pensions will need to sell $88.3B of equities and buy $44.4B of fixed income. Noted that if realized, this would be largest since Q2 2024 for both asset classes. Iran continues to push for control of SoH traffic, market does not seem concerned: Geopolitics seem largely on the backburner despite ratcheting up of rhetoric from Iran regarding its perceived leverage over SoH traffic. Bigger issue seems to be that despite the flare-up in kinetic activity late last week and over the weekend and conflicting signals about Tuesday talks, SoH reopening narrative remains intact with ~24 ships transiting on Monday and that trend continuing today (Bloomberg). Cook decision doesn't mean end to Fed scrutiny: SCOTUS ruling that President Trump cannot remove Fed Governor Cook from her position while lower courts continue to debate case widely seen as protecting monetary policy from politicization risks. However, some concern that the narrow ruling left a lot unresolved (NY Times). JPMorgan also discussed how future courts may not be so quick to equate central bank independence with monetary policy independence. Mag 7 a June laggard: Heading into month-end, Mag 7 underperformance one of the bigger stories. FT discussed how the group has declined 10% in June, leaving it on track for worst month in over a year. Also down 3% for the year. Lingering ROI scrutiny surrounding elevated capex, surging input costs, source of funds for AI infrastructure trade (semis, memory) and supply (SpaceX IPO) among the more widely cited overhangs. Broadening out trade also supported by earnings: Broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade a notable June outperformer on the back of lower oil, the still solid macro backdrop narrative and positioning dynamics. Morgan Stanley also highlighted tailwind from earnings. Noted operating leverage and EPS growth have reached strongest levels since 2021. Added, median S&P 500 stock now seeing double-digit earnings growth, the fastest pace in several years. Elevated profit margins: Elevated corporate profit margins receiving some attention heading into Q2 earnings season (link). According to FactSet's Earnings Insight, net profit margin for Q2 is expected to come in at 14.2%. While down from a record 14.8% in Q1, it would still mark second highest reading in data going back to 2009. Also well above five-year average of 12.3%. Yen at 40-year lows: Flurry of headlines about yen falling to 40-year lows against the dollar. Perception of BoJ as behind the curve a longstanding area of scrutiny for the yen. While BoJ tightened in June, next move not expected to come until late this year. In addition, while Fed independence concerns have dominated the headlines, Takaichi administration has stressed need for BoJ to support its growth policies and is also looking to change composition of the board (Reuters). More memory price surge spillover: Memory price surge continues to make headlines following last week's blowout results from Micron. Print was followed by Apple's announcement of 15-25% price hikes across a range of products. Spillover effects in focus again as Nikkei reported Chinese smartphone makers have told suppliers they are cutting 2026 shipment targets again, in some cases by up to 30%. DeepSeek implements peak-use surcharge, Amazon shifting to token model with Anthropic: AI spending and token economics in the headlines with a lot of moving pieces. SCMP noted DeepSeek is implementing peak-hour surcharges for its API services, not long after it helped to unleash a domestic price war and scramble to gain market share. Cited need for better distribution of resources. Separately, The Information reported Amazon will shift paying Anthropic for its AI models based on computing hours to a token-based pricing. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 15:04	Afternoon Headlines: Corporate: Comcast spinoff could pave way for next round of media M&A (link) Super Micro Computer's offices raided by Taiwanese authorities amid expanded chip-smuggling investigation (Bloomberg) Insiders say JPMorgan CEO succession planning is 'the real deal' this time; could announce successor within 2.5 years (Reuters) Maersk boosts 2026 earnings guidance on strong container market demand (Reuters) Trump purchased as much as $5M in shares of Axon two weeks before ICE sought major taser deal with company (CNBC) Stellantis planning on selling a new Jeep model in Europe by 2030 that will be made in China (Bloomberg) AI: Amazon could pay up to $33B total for Anthropic technology under expanded deal (The Information) Anthropic launches Claude models on Microsoft Azure powered by NVIDIA GB300 GPUs ( link) Steelmakers increasingly competing with their AI data-center customers for electricity (link) Fed: Supreme Court rules Fed Governor Cook can stay in current role as lower courts adjudicate Trump's move to fire (CNBC) Citadel says market is underestimating Fed Chair Warsh's determination to rein in inflation (Bloomberg) Markets: Equity funding costs getting more expensive amid rise in leveraged ETFs and options trading, record hedge fund exposure (Reuters) First-half IPO volumes have handily broken 2021's record level (Bloomberg) Kalshi traders see this week's nonfarm payrolls report coming in below Street expectations (CNBC) Washington: Supreme Court gives Trump approval to fire FTC commissioner, other executive branch officials (SCOTUSblog) Supreme Court rules mail-in ballots can be counted even after election day (Fox News) US-Iran conflict: US and Iran will hold both high-level and technical talks on Tuesday; Kushner and Witkoff heading to Doha (Bloomberg) Energy: 14M barrels of Iraqi oil has successfully transited through Hormuz, making way to Asia, Europe, and US (Bloomberg) Pakistan to raise its imports of LPG from Iran, may also boost imports of crude (Oilprice.com) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, AXON, CMCSA, JPM, MSFT, NVDA, SMCI, +ANTHROPIC...(more)	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 12:04	Monday midday check-in: Mag 7 bounce: Mag 7 bounce the story thus far today after group underperformed again last week, leaving it down ~13% in June. Source of funds for AI infrastructure trade (semis, memory), supply (SpaceX IPO) and lingering capex scrutiny some of the widely cited headwinds. Nothing specific behind bounce though positioning has received some attention. Goldman Sachs noted gross and net exposures now approaching respective three-year lows in 4^th and 6^th percentile. Memory pullback: Memory a laggard today. Easiest excuse seems to revolve around some of the backlash from Micron's blowout results last week that put the focus on surging memory prices and were followed by Apple's announcement of price hikes across a number of products. Also some focus on Apple's lobbying push to source memory chips from China, along with the nearly $600B South Korean chip investment plan announced overnight. Broadening out trade breather: Broadening/reopening/cyclical trade largely taking a breather today after outperforming again last week that found support from lower oil/rates (both higher today) and data (particularly the flash PMIs) that continued to fit with the solid macro backdrop narrative. Small caps, builders, building materials, consumer, airlines among some of the laggards. SCOTUS blocks President Trump from firing Fed Governor Cook: SCOTUS ruled Trump cannot remove Cook from her position while lower courts continue to debate case. 5-4 ruling noted that Cook "was entitled to notice and some opportunity to respond to her termination". Highlighted concern president could remove any member of the Fed "at any time, for any reason, without any notice before, and without any judicial check after". Cook win had been expected, though ruling also on the narrower side. US-Iran talks to resume on Tuesday: US and Iran to resume talks on Tuesday in Doha. While technical discussions had already been set, White House said today that high-level discussions involving Witkoff and Kushner will also take place. Follows recent flare-up in kinetic activity and subsequent news that the two sides had agreed to halt attacks. Oil higher on the day but SoH reopening narrative still seems largely intact. Comcast spinoff and more mega-deal activity: Biggest corporate story today seems to be Comcast decision to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky from its mobile and broadband business. Early takeaways positive on SOTP value unlock. More M&A in the headlines. Martin Marietta Materials to acquire limestone provider Lhoist North America for $13.5B in cash and stock. Rocket Lab to acquire Iridium in a deal worth ~$8B. Big macro week ahead: Several important macro events this holiday-shortened week. New Fed Chair Warsh speaks at ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. However, similar to June FOMC meeting, not expected to provide any incremental policy color. ISM manufacturing for June also out Wednesday morning. Expected little changed at 53.9. June employment report on Thursday. NFP expected up 115K following 172K gain in May. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 10:52	June Dallas Fed Index shows jump in employment, steady new orders, rising prices received: June's Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at +0.0 vs consensus +3.0 and May's +0.4; index has now remained in a narrow 3.0 range for six straight months. New orders fell m/m to +2.3 from +6.4; production declined to +4.1 from +9.4; shipments ticked down to +7.1 from +7.4. Employment jumped to +13.2 from +0.2 with employment growth resuming and hours worked rising; selling price and wage pressures increased, while input price pressures held steady; priced paid essentially unchanged at +42.4 from +42.7, while prices received rose to +28.6 from +18.9. Regarding future outlook, expectations are for increased manufacturing activity six months from now with the future business activity rising to +25.9 from +14.3. Looking ahead this week, May JOLTS job openings report and June consumer confidence out on Tuesday; Wednesday brings June ISM manufacturing and ADP private payrolls; June nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday with Street looking for 115K m/m increase from May. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 10:47	Supreme Court decides Fed's Cook can remain while litigation over her removal proceeds: In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court in Trump v. Cook held the president cannot remove Fed Governor Cook from her position while lower courts continue to debate the issue. Justices Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh, and Jackson joined the decision; Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Barrett dissented. The opinion argues that acceptance of the government's position that the president's determination of for-cause termination is unreviewable would effectively cause the position to become at-will employment, which it says is out of step with the Federal Reserve Act and the nation's tradition of independent central banking. The opinion also cites the president's failure to afford Cook procedural protections to which she was entitled and that would allow her to dispute the charges. It notes under SCOTUS precedents, for-cause dismissals imply Cook was entitled to some opportunity to respond before her termination. Roberts' opinion noted Trump's firing via social-media post was unsatisfactory. In his dissent, Thomas argues apparent mortgage fraud was a cause to remove Cook, adding federal courts lack the authority to offer the relief today's opinion upholds. He adds the president's case against cook is likely to succeed on the merits and to prevail against Cook's claims. Alito, in a separate dissent, said the lower courts had resolved some issues incorrectly. Barrett suggested the case clears the "irreparable harm" bar by preventing the president from firing a subordinate. Market had been looking for whether the court would reinforce the principle of Fed independence. Note that while the concurring opinion does firmly make that claim, the case itself is not yet concluded. And the Supreme Court today also upheld Trump's firing of Democratic FTC Commissioner Slaughter, though that opinion acknowledged her position was not in the same tradition as the central bank regarding plenary presidential control. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 07:30	Monday morning check-in: Mag 7 bounce attempt: Mag 7 bounce seems to be the big story this morning after group underperformed again last week, leaving it down ~13% in June. Source of funds for AI infrastructure trade (semis, memory), supply (SpaceX IPO) and lingering capex scrutiny some of the widely cited overhangs. Nothing specific behind the bounce. Some focus on memory price backlash and big investment pledges from Samsung and SK Hynix overnight. Apple wants to buy memory chips from China: FT reported Apple lobbying White House for clearance to buy memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese company that has been blacklisted due to alleged PLA ties. However, also flagged expected congressional pushback. Lobbying plays into concerns about a surge in memory prices that was on display last week with both the blowout results from Micron (and nearly 85% GM) and price increases announced by Apple (and Microsoft). China closes AI gap on cybersecurity: One of the biggest themes in AI has revolved around competition from Chinese models, which have closed the performance gap with the frontier models faster than expected and play into the corporate-cost control narrative. Performance issue in the headlines again with report a new AI model released this month by China's Zhipu AI can match performance of Anthropic's Mythos 5 in some cybersecurity scenarios. Comcast to spin off NBC Universal: Comcast a big gainer on announcement it will separate into two independent publicly traded companies via a tax-free spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky from its mobile and broadband business. Deal expected to be completed within one year. Comcast to retain an ownership stake of up to 19.9% in NBCUniversal. Stock down ~30% over last year and move expected to unlock SOTP value. US and Iran agree to halt military attacks: US and Iran said on Sunday they would halt military attacks ahead of next round of technical talks on Tuesday. Followed a renewed ramp in kinetic activity in recent days that largely emanated from Iran's efforts to maintain leverage surrounding Strait of Hormuz traffic. While traffic reportedly slowed over the weekend, reopening momentum and supply narratives have remained largely intact. Warsh expected to release special task force details soon: Fed Chair Warsh in the press over the weekend. One report noted that along with decision to scrap forward guidance, understanding of Fed's reaction function complicated by Warsh's decision to stop explaining how incoming data influence how Fed sets rates. Another report said Warsh to announce details about special task forces in coming weeks. Added overwhelming sense of uncertainty at Fed about how far and how quickly he will implement change. Earnings season looming with another Q of 20%+ growth expected: Start of Q2 earnings about two weeks away. According to FactSet's Earnings Insight, Street looking for S&P 500 earnings growth of 23.1% in Q2, which would mark second straight Q of 20%+ growth and seventh straight Q of double-digit growth. 10 of 11 sectors expected to report y/y earnings growth, led by Energy, Tech and Materials. Middle East conflict tailwind for energy while AI still the big story in tech. AI tailwind for earnings: AI expected to once again provide key tailwind for earnings. According to latest US Weekly Kickstart from Goldman Sachs, AI infrastructure stocks expected to contribute nearly 60% of S&P 500 EPS growth in Q2. Added that the top 10 contributing stocks are expected to drive nearly 75% of growth. In addition, Micron and Nvidia together expected to account for more than 40%. Watching leverage: Leverage getting more attention in the financial press (see here and here), particularly from a volatility/risk standpoint. Proliferation of leveraged ETFs one of the key areas of focus. Goldman Sachs recently highlighted global levered ETF AUM at ~$300B and US-listed levered ETF trading volumes running ~50% above prior year period's pace. US-Iran conflict to backburner, lower Mag 7 bubble risk, Fed won't hike, big jump in AI use: Deutsche Bank out with its Q2 Global Markets Survey. Noted 75% now believe Iran conflict will largely fade as a market driver into year-end. Added Mag-7 bubble risk lowest since 2021. US recession risk lowest since it first asked the question in March 2025. Pointed out more believe Fed will hold or cut rates this year than raise them. Only 4% said they don't use AI for work vs 48% two years ago. More outsized rebalancing estimates: Street continues to highlight outsized month- and quarter-end rebalancing related selling in equities and buying in bonds. Deutsche Bank estimated defined pensions will need to sell $88.3B of equities and buy $44.4B of fixed income Noted that if realized, this would be largest since Q2 2024 for both asset classes. Goldman Sachs has said its estimates sit in the 95^th percentile going back to 2000. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 07:02	RBC raises its 12-month S&P price target, though says path ahead may not be linear: RBC raising its 12-month S&P 500 price target to 8150 from prior 7900 (an ~11% gain from Friday's close). Comes after a string of year-end 2026 target upgrades last week which saw JP Morgan, Barclays, and Stifel lifting their forecasts to 7800. RBC's mid-year review highlights higher EPS forecasts alongside a slightly better P/E assumption given a lower inflation forecast (offsetting its new expectation for a single Fed hike for the year ahead). Adds some conservatism still built into its forecast but also stresses path may not be linear and pullbacks in 5-10% range still possible while recession risks remain low and Fed hikes are moderate. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley highlights ongoing broadening-out trade driven by underappreciated earnings recovery across the market, likely to be enhanced by lower crude prices. Expects a less-hawkish Fed amid falling energy prices, peaking tariff inflation, and contained services/housing inflation. Sees gradual improvement in consumer confidence amid notably improving sentiment around household finances. Goldman Sachs observes moderating risk appetites but a revival in US tech inflows around the AI theme; adds investors increasingly deploying leverage to participate in the equity rally. On the consumer front, JP Morgan argues gasoline prices may be slower to drop than crude, which will delay consumer relief; suggests fading fiscal support may offset some lift from lower gas prices. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-Jun-2026 06:40	US-Iran fighting briefly flares up before quickly de-escalating: Flare-up in US-Iran fighting the big story from the weekend after the US conducted new strikes on Iran on Saturday, following a drone attack on a Panama-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz; Trump also warned Iran "won't exist" if strikes continue (BBC). Hostilities eased by Sunday, with both sides agreeing to halt fighting and resume technical talks in Qatar; weekend flare-up and swift subsequent de-escalation reinforce view that neither side ultimately benefits from renewed conflict; however, also highlights lingering security fears are likely to keep shipping flows through Strait of Hormuz below normal and delay a full reopening (Axios). Middle East crude production rebounded to 14.6-15.0M bpd earlier this month, according to Rystad Energy; stronger-than-expected recovery prompted the firm to bring forward its forecast for a full regional supply recovery by one quarter, now expecting normalization by end-2026 (Oilprice.com) Reuters posited Monday morning Hormuz reopening remains disorderly, with a wave of delayed crude exports weighing on oil prices while shipping and production normalize more gradually; ongoing security concerns and logistical bottlenecks also continue to act as headwinds on normalization (Reuters). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Jun-2026 11:57	Bullish talking points for week-ended 26-Jun: AI capex demand narrative underpinned by blowout Micron results/guidance. Company said it expects tight supply conditions to persist beyond 2027. Street particularly positive on disclosure it has signed 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs), which feature take or pay volume requirements and price floors (pushback against longstanding cyclicality concerns). Qualcomm investor day (data center guidance, design wins) another positive for AI theme. Broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade outperformed with help from continued selloff in oil and lower rates. Positioning also mentioned as supportive. Machinery, multis, transports, travel & leisure, homebuilders, banks and a number of consumer-facing pockets of the market among the standouts. Broadening out trade also a big June mtd outperformer. Continued selloff in oil with Brent crude falling below levels seen just before the conflict began. Weakness chalked up to positive start to US-Iran talk and flurry of headlines highlighting Strait of Hormuz reopening momentum and a potential near-term physical supply glut. Pullback continued late in the week despite missile strike on a container vessel and Iran jawboning about restricted routes and its rights to impose fees. Rates lower on the week despite a big backup in yields on Monday. Rate reprieve seemed to be largely chalked up to lower oil. May PCE inflation also came in a bit cooler. Rates also down despite the flurry of post-FOMC discussion about a more hawkish central bank reaction function. Both BofA and Deutsche Bank said they now see Fed rate hikes this year (BofA at 75 bp and Deutsche Bank at 50 bp). Earnings strength cited for another round of S&P 500 price target increases. Barclays, JPMorgan and Stifel this week all raised their 2026 year-end S&P 500 price targets to 7,800. Earnings strength the key driver. JPMorgan noted the ~10% consensus upgrades to FY26 and FY27 are unprecedented outside of following a shock or recession. More M&A with a number of multibillion-dollar deals and global M&A on track for best year since 2021. Merck KGaA to acquire Bio-Techne in an $11.3B deal. AbbVie to acquire Apogee in a deal with an EV of nearly $11B. onsemi to acquire Synaptics for ~$7B. Qualcomm to acquire AI startup Modular for nearly $4B. Public Storage to acquire Public Storage Canada for $1.2B. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs surprised to the upside in June. Manufacturing expanded for 11^th straight month and hit highest in over three years. Both new orders and output accelerated (though employment soft and while prices slipped, they remained elevated). Services posted strongest reading since February, with increases in both new business and employment components. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Jun-2026 11:57	Bearish talking points for week-ended 26-Jun: Momentum unwind despite strong Thursday price action following Micron. Spun as more about market structure/concentration than any meaningful shift in fundamental narrative. South Korea and proliferation of leveraged ETFs (bulk of which are momentum/tech focused) among intertwined areas of scrutiny. Goldman Sachs highlighted global levered ETF AUM at ~$300B and US-listed levered ETF trading volumes running ~50% above prior year period's pace. Momentum unwind not just about mechanics. AI trade areas of concern revolved around open-source/China competition, capacity competition, hyperscaler capex ROI, potential OpenAI IPO delay, White House restrictions on release of latest OpenAI model, potential demand destruction (price hikes)/elevated memory GM sustainability, expected Samsung/SK Hynix investment ramp announcements. Inflation still elevated. Despite all the positive sentiment surrounding oil decline (and waning tariff impacts), Fed's Goolsbee highlighted worries about sticky services inflation. Micron earnings and subsequent price increases from Apple and Microsoft put focus on spillover from elevated memory prices. Broader AI capex boom highlighted as third inflation wave in the financial press. Rebalancing widely flagged as a near-term headwind for equities heading into month- and quarter-end. Goldman Sachs estimated $30B of US equities to sell, which it noted ranks in the 89^th percentile among all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over past three years and in the 95^th percentile going back to early 2000. JPMorgan estimated ~$165B of equity selling/bond buying (though focused on bigger cohort). Another flurry of headlines about outsized private credit fund redemptions. Apollo, Morgan Stanley and Ares among the firms that announced this week they had to impose 5% redemption caps on their flagship private credit funds for Q2. Despite pushback (caps a feature not a bug, lower share of US investor redemption requests), alts were notable underperformers this week. Outside of Micron, the higher-profile earnings tended to disappoint despite largely beating expectations. FedEx takeaways focused on elevated expectations, along with noise surrounding spin-off FedEx Freight and shift to December fiscal year-end. Carnival takeaways highlighted the 100 bp downgrade to 2026 net yield guidance. A post-earnings selloff in Cerebras was chalked up to margin headwinds. Darden Restaurants reported softer Olive Garden comps. Market may not be able to relegate geopolitics completely to the backburner. Despite the selloff in oil and positive start to US-Iran talks, headline volatility remained elevated and may stay that way as both sides look to maintain their perceived leverage. Nuclear inspections and Strait of Hormuz fees were among the more widely highlighted areas of contention. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Jun-2026 10:15	Consumer sentiment improves, though still below pre-conflict levels: Final June consumer sentiment came in at 49.5 vs consensus 50.0 and May's final 44.8 (which was a new record low) driven by sharp spike in gasoline prices linked to Iran war; however, consumer worries eased from early June as gas prices moderated. Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down to 4.6% form May's 4.8%, though still exceed the 3.4% reading seen in February before the Iran conflict began; long-run inflation expectations fell back to 3.3% from May's 3.9%. Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 47.7 from May's 45.8, while Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 50.7 from May's 44.1. Report noted consumer sentiment improved broadly as worries around long-term fallout from the Iran conflict eased, but remains weak overall amid high prices still pressuring household finances. Note, consumer space has been a bright spot in markets this month with sharp pullback in oil prices remaining key tailwind. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Jun-2026 07:30	Potential OpenAI IPO delay amid cautious AI updates, Big Tech rotational dynamics in focus: OpenAI reportedly considering delaying IPO until 2027 due to uncertain market conditions (NY Times). Company initially aimed for $1T valuation, but advisers cautioned that may not be achievable in current market, citing poor performance of SpaceX stock after its IPO, while CEO Altman reportedly unwilling to lower targeted valuation. Intersection of AI, politics again in focus after Trump administration reportedly asked OpenAI to stagger release of upcoming GPT-5.6 model (Bloomberg). Comes after recent White House restrictions on Anthropic, also plays into growing concerns around open source, Chinese model competition, risk of lock-in from single AI providers (NY Times). Thursday's Big Tech downside tabbed in part to demand destruction/price hikes, GM sustainability from memory (following MU results). However, growing competition, supply implications in focus with Samsung, SK Hynix planning to outline massive AI-linked investment plans next week (Reuters). Rotational dynamics in focus with Goldman Sachs saying Big Tech a source of funds amid rotation into semis and memory, market underweighting "buyers of shortage" (those with high capex, ROI over several years) vs "sellers of shortage" (those who make one-time sales, driving sizable near-term EPS revisions). BofA also said liquidity pulled from megacap AI arms racers into semis, illiquid cyclicals (like housing, REITs) to front-run Trump affordability pivot. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA, SPCX, TSLA, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
26-Jun-2026 07:18	Friday morning check-in: Momentum pressure returns: Momentum trade under pressure again following another selloff in Asia. Still a lot of focus on market structure/concentration issues. However, expected Samsung/SK Hynix investment announcements, concerns about demand destruction (via price hikes)/elevated GM sustainability, potential delay in OpenAI IPO until 2027, US government request for OpenAI to limit release of next model and open-source competition all flagged as well. OpenAI considering delaying IPO until 2027: NY Times reported that OpenAI leaning towards delaying its IPO until 2027 vs prior expectations for a 2H26 listing. Cited concerns about a wave of recent developments, including recent selloff in SpaceX, that could hinder company's ability to secure the $1T valuation sought by CEO Sam Altman. Potential delay comes amid both ramp in frontier model scrutiny and concerns about mega-IPO supply (and shift in broader de-equitization trend). OpenAI to limit release of new model following White House request: Multiple reports (The Information, Axios) noted OpenAI will limit rollout of GPT-5.6 to only a select group of government-approved partners. Move in response to Trump administration request for a limited release due to national security concerns. Likely to exacerbate concerns about both political/geopolitical containment and competition from China/open-source models after Anthropic pulled its leading models due to White House concerns about "jailbreaking" risks. Oil under pressure again as SoH reopening narrative intact: Oil under pressure after WTI crude snapped a big nine-day losing streak (which had left it down nearly 25%) on Thursday. Thursday bounce chalked up to attack on container vessel in SoH, IRGC jawboning about restricted routes and latest headlines about Iran pushing for fees. However, flare-ups not a surprise (as Iran tries to retain some leverage) and latest headlines have highlighted continued flow momentum in both directions (Bloomberg). Williams says policy is in right place: Fed's Williams said current monetary policy stance "well positioned" to getting inflation back to 2% target. Expects inflation pressures to moderate in coming quarters with dampening of tariff impact and resolution of supply disruption concerns surrounding Middle East. Also flagged moderating housing inflation. Williams seen as an FOMC centrist and comments seem to fit with thoughts June FOMC takeaways may have leaned a bit too hawkish. Warsh debut bolsters Fed's credibility on inflation: Initial takeaways from Warsh's debut as Fed chair focused on perceived more hawkish central bank reaction and potential for higher bond vol from shift in forward guidance policy. However, FT also discussed view that Warsh has bolstered Fed's credibility in financial markets. While oil selloff also a factor, noted 10-year breakevens have dropped ~30 bp from mid-May to ~2.2%, their lowest in over a year. Rebalancing flows in focus into month- and quarter-end: Goldman Sachs estimated $30B of US equities to sell, which it noted ranks in the 89^th percentile among all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over past three years and in the 95^th percentile going back to early 2000. JPMorgan estimated ~$165B of equity selling/bond buying. However, that figure incorporates not only US pensions, but also balanced mutual funds, the Norwegian oil fund, the SNB and the Japanese GPIF. onsemi to acquire Synaptics: onsemi to acquire Synaptics in an all-stock deal valued at ~$7B, including debt. Implies a ~19% premium to 10-day VWAP. Expected to deliver $200M in synergies, be accretive to EPS within 18 months and expand onsemi's TAM by $30B to $243B by 2030. Deal brings edge AI compute to onsemi's power and sensing portfolio to bolster leverage to physical AI. Early Street takeaways somewhat mixed. KeyBanc noted physical AI small portion of Synaptics' revenues. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
26-Jun-2026 06:57	Crude near pre-conflict levels as Hormuz flows improve, peace deal holds: Oil under pressure Friday, down ~9% WTD and trading at its lowest level since late February (back at pre-conflict levels). Market largely shrugging off yesterday's IRGC attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, instead focusing on steadily improving transit flows through the waterway (Washington Post). As of yesterday, Persian Gulf crude exports had recovered to at least 75% of pre-war levels, with Hormuz shipments reaching their highest since the war began, though still below historical norms amid some concerns about the durability of the 60-Day peace agreement (Bloomberg, Reuters). Before yesterday's vessel attack, the IRGC warned that Hormuz transits without Tehran's coordination would face enforcement. Trump has since insisted there will be no transit tolls and warned Tehran against actions that could undermine the peace deal (euronews, Bloomberg). Looking ahead, Iran-US talks are expected to face key hurdles centered on nuclear inspections and Lebanon. Trump and Tehran issued conflicting statements this week on whether nuclear inspections will resume, while Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon (i24News). An Iranian source said this week a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is a prerequisite for any lasting agreement (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Jun-2026 15:05	Afternoon Headlines: Corporate: Apple announces price hikes on MacBooks and iPads amid ongoing memory crunch (Axios) Apple to skip high-end M6 chips to jump ahead to AI-focused M7 chip (Bloomberg) Microsoft will increase the price of Xbox Series consoles worldwide for a third time starting 1-Aug (The Verge) Bayer wins Supreme Court case saying company cannot be sued over glyphosate in Monsanto's Roundup (CNBC) JPMorgan announces the retirement of Marianne Lake, who had ‌been widely seen as a top contender for CEO (Reuters) Planet Fitness appoints Sudhanshu Priyadarshi as CFO, and President, International, effective immediately (link) Polestar receives denial from Trump administration on request to sell its vehicles inside the US (Reuters) Sonos announces job cuts impacting 3% of staff within user experience and product teams (Bloomberg) Bumble exploring a sale as growth has slowed in online dating (Reuters) Nissan, Stellantis in talks to take over some assets of bankrupt auto parts maker Marelli (Bloomberg) AI: DeepSeek is planning on doubling its staff across all departments amid stiff coemption (Bloomberg) Markets: Micron briefly overtakes Meta and Tesla in market value after massive earnings beat (Reuters) Allianz says SpaceX $25B bond sale shortly after IPO a clear sign markets entering bubble territory (FT) Iran war: Iran's Revolutionary Guard carries out attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz (Washington Post) Iran warns that any vessel navigating outside Tehran's designated routes in Hormuz run risk of being attacked (euronews) Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon said to be a needed condition of any final US-Iran peace deal (Ynetnews) Iran estimates charging for security, safety, environmental services in Strait of Hormuz would bring in $40B a year for states involved (link) Energy: Persian Gulf Crude exports rebound to 75% of pre-war levels, 13M barrels of Crude left in the region (Bloomberg) IMF says energy prices are falling on the recent US-Iran peace agreement, though time is needed for full normalization (Reuters) Fed: Chicago's Goolsbee says core inflation still too high, trending wrong way (Reuters) Private credit: Investors attempt to pull more than $1.5B from $11B Ares flagship private credit fund (FT) LENDX has limited withdrawals for 16 straight quarters, some managers expect six years withdrawal backlog (link) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, JPM, META, MSFT, MU, PLNT, PSNY, SONO, TSLA...(more)	show story hide story
25-Jun-2026 12:28	Thursday afternoon check-in: Momentum bounce on Micron: Momentum bounce the story today following a recent unwind largely chalked up to structure/concentration dynamics. Blowout results and strategic customer agreements (SCAs) from Micron the big tailwind, underpinning the AI capex demand narrative. Company said it expects tight supply conditions to persist beyond 2027. SCAs (price floors, volume commitments) highlighted as pushback against longstanding cyclicality concerns. Momentum weighs on Mag 7: Momentum bounce an overhang on Mag 7. Focus seems to have shifted back to the space as a source of funds. Other big story is the input cost pressure signaling from the Micron results (broader AI capex boom inflation impact also flagged in financial press). Apple the worst performer in the group (on day it announced 15-25% price increases). Dell another notable decliner. More broadening out: Broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade working again despite momentum bounce and some stabilization in oil. Small caps, industrials, builders, travel & leisure and banks some of the standouts. Continued move lower in rates and economic data largely supportive of the solid macro backdrop narrative fit with the move. Multiple firms have also talked about depressed positioning. Rates lower again: Rate reprieve has continued today and rates lower on the week despite the big backup on Monday that came amid another wave of post-FOMC scrutiny surrounding a more hawkish reaction function and shift in forward guidance policy. 10-year yields below 4.40% and lowest since early May. Busy day of economic data with a lot of moving pieces. Headline PCE inflation a bit softer in May while core reading largely in line. Oil snapping big 9-day losing streak: Oil has found some semblance of stabilization, snapping a nine-day losing streak that sent WTI crude down nearly 25%. While Gulf/SoH flow headlines have been upbeat, some vessels have turned around today following IRGC's navigation warning (euronews). Cargo ship in the SoH was also reportedly hit by a projectile (Bloomberg). In addition, Iran once again talking about securing fees for SoH transit (link). Apple implements price increases: Apple implemented price increases recently previewed by CEO Tim Cook. Raised prices for its Mac computers and iPads by 15-25%. Blamed rapid expansion of data centers that has driven extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage. While iPhone prices were not raised, company seemingly left door open for additional moves. Financial press has recently discussed both Apple's pricing power and its dampened supply chain prowess. JPMorgan succession race narrowing, Dimon not going anytime soon: JPMorgan in the headlines today after boosting its dividend and announcing a $50B share buyback program following Fed stress tests on Wednesday. Named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh co-presidents and granted each $30M retention bonuses. Also announced surprise retirement of Marianne Lake, who had been seen as a potential successor to CEO Jamie Dimon. Dimon reportedly planning to stay at the helm for another three years (link). Private credit continues to see outsized redemption requests: Flagship ~$11B Ares private credit fund hit with redemption requests for 14.4% of NAV, up from 11.6% in Q1. Like other private credit funds in the headlines, it capped redemptions at 5%. Not an issue for alts today, though the group still down big on the week. Some thoughts attention on withdrawal caps is overdone (feature not a bug). Also some focus on lower portion of redemption requests from US investors and higher share from repeat/catch-up requests. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Jun-2026 08:55	May core PCE in line, personal spending higher; Initial claims fall w/w; Q1 GDP revised higher; Preliminary May durable goods orders in line: May core PCE increased 0.3% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% increase and April's 0.3% rise; annualized core up 3.4% vs consensus 3.3% and Apri's 3.3%; now highest since Oct-23. May Headline PCE increased 0.45% m/m vs consensus for 0.5% rise and April's 0.4% increase; annualized headline at 4.1% vs consensus 4.1% and April's 3.8%; now highest since Apr-23. Personal spending up 0.7% m/m vs consensus 0.6% and April's 0.4%; personal income up 0.7% vs consensus 0.4% and April's flat reading. Elsewhere, initial claims came in at 215K vs consensus 225K and prior week's upwardly revised 227K (was 226K); initial claims now lowest since end of May; continuing claims came in at 1821K vs consensus 1800K and previous week's downwardly revised 1800K (was 1810K). Meanwhile, Q1 GDP (2nd revision) of +2.1% vs. consensus +1.6% and 1^st revision +1.6%; Q1 GDP Chain Price of +3.6% vs consensus +3.5% and 1^st revision +3.5%. Finally, preliminary headline May durable goods orders declined 4.5% m/m, in line with consensus; April's headline revised up to +8.5% from +7.9%; May core durable goods orders (Non-defense, ex-Aircraft) up 1.6% m/m vs consensus for 0.6% increase and April's 0.7% decline (revised from -1.1%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
25-Jun-2026 07:30	Thursday morning check-in: Big momentum bounce: Momentum bounce the big story this morning, driven by renewed support for the AI capex trade from the blowout results/guidance out of Micron. Follows recent momentum unwind that was spun as more about market structure/concentration than any meaningful shift in the fundamental narrative (though open-source competition, capex scrutiny, capacity competition and supply still received some blame). Micron delivers blowout results and guidance, SCA momentum: Micron a big gainer as blowout fiscal Q3 results and Q4 guidance. Expects tight supply conditions to persist beyond 2027. Street particularly positive on disclosure it has signed 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs) with ~$100B of minimum contracted revenue. SCAs, which feature pricing floors and volume commitments, a key pushback against concerns about cyclicality. HBM4 momentum (revenues>$1B and faster yield improvement) another bright spot. Qualcomm investor day highlights diversification push: Qualcomm boosted by positive takeaways from its investor day. Takeaways focused on stronger-than-expected FY29 guide for $40B in non-handset revenue. Data Center a key driver with revenue expected to ramp from ~$300M this year to $5B in FY27 and then up to $15B in FY29. Custom silicon design wins at Meta and Microsoft flagged as initial tailwinds. Oil back below pre-conflict levels: Oil pullback continues to dominate the headlines with Brent spending time below the $72.48 a barrel closing price the day before conflict began. Pickup in Gulf flows the big story, with 31 tankers exiting the Gulf on Wednesday and US energy secretary noting yesterday 20M barrels of crude exited SoH in past 24 hours on 72 ships (FT). The other big story today has revolved around Iraq saying it could leave OPEC if its production quota is not increased (Reuters). Apple implements price increases: Apple implemented price increases recently previewed by CEO Tim Cook. Raised prices for its Mac computers and iPads by 15-25%. Blamed rapid expansion of data centers that has driven extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storge. While iPhone prices were not raised, company seemingly left door open for additional moves. Financial press has recently discussed both Apple's pricing power and its dampened supply chain prowess. Fed's bank stress test a non-event: Fed said 2026 stress test results show the 32 large banks subject to the test have sufficient capital to absorb nearly $70B in losses. Aggregate CET1 held at 11.2% at its stressed minimum, with the 1.6pp decline smallest in recent years. Test largely a non-factor as Fed already said results would not impact stress capital buffers. However, early Street takeaways still positive on dividend increase announcements that followed from several banks, along with broader de-regulation push. Consumer focus: Consumer a bright spot on Wednesday as the broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade outperformed. Consumer space has also been a notable outperformer in June. Oil selloff a key driver. Recent move lower in rates also cited as supportive. Multiple firms have highlighted better card-spending data. Goldman Sachs noted more interest from generalists and macro investors in discussing the space this week. JPMorgan noted investors have very low exposure to consumer-related plays. AI capex boom keeping inflation elevated: Lots of moving pieces surrounding inflation with oil selloff playing into a transitory narrative that already features tariffs. However, Fed's Goolsbee warned on sticky services inflation earlier this week and financial press discussed how AI capex boom, which is still in early phases, represents a persistent demand shock that is driving a third wave of inflation. Added that while there is a lot of confidence AI productivity will deliver disinflation, the lag will be long (link). More M&A: Merck KGaA announced agreement to acquire Bio-Techne for $73 per share in cash in a deal with an EV of $11.3B. Represents a 36% premium to average share price over last month and comes on the heels of push by activist investor Ananym Capital Management for the company to explore a sale. Global M&A on track to reach $4T in 2026, driven by deals megadeals (>$5B), making it best year since 2021 (CNBC). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jun-2026 14:55	Afternoon Headlines: Markets: JPMorgan latest to raise year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,800 on earnings momentum (Reuters) Doncasters Group IPO more than 30x oversubscribed, now expected to price $1-2 above $28-32 per share marketing range (Bloomberg) AI: Two more Google AI staffers leaving for Anthropic (Bloomberg) Growing data center backlash driving ramp in restrictions (The Information) Grid operator PJM Interconnection creating new emergency warning for customers when data center demand surges (Bloomberg) Corporate: Paramount ready to sell Universal Pictures JV for Warner deal to clear EU regulations (Reuters) Toyota is expected to report a nearly 1% increase in US sales through 1H26 to 1.25M vehicles (CNBC) Sunrun signs deal with Tesla to supply power for AI, shares surge over 30% (Bloomberg) Wendy's shares surge after Reddit /wsb attention (Sherwood) Tesla sued by family of woman killed after Model 3 using Autopilot crashed into home (Reuters) Iran war: Israel's defense minister reaffirms Israeli troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon (Reuters) Energy: Iran and Oman to coordinate tanker evacuations through the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg) Crude oil inventories in the U.S. decreased by 6.1M barrels during the week ending 19-June (Oilprice.com) U.S. Energy Secretary Wrigth says Iran will lose ability to block Hormuz Strait going forward (Reuters) At least 20 tankers stuck in Persian Gulf for more than three months have exited Strait of Hormuz, oil shipments now ~4.8M bpd (CNBC) Washington: Trump cancels the signing of bipartisan affordable housing bill, demanding the passage of voter ID SAFE Act (CNBC) Federal judge blocks Trump from implementing proof of citizenship requirement to vote (AP News) White House tells Republicans to expect Iran war funding request by end of week (Politico) Hedge funds/PE: Moreton Capital Parnters targeting $500M SPV to focus on threat to global food supplies from "super El Niño" (Bloomberg) SEC probing "continuation vehicles" typically used by PE funds, money managers to hold assets they cannot or do not wish to sell (Reuters) Central banks: Bank of Canada officials admitted economy week but not in recession, see consumer spending rebound in Q2 (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GM, GOOGL, PARA, RUN, TSLA, WEN, +ANTHROPIC...(more)	show story hide story
24-Jun-2026 13:23	Wednesday afternoon check-in: Broadening out: Big story today has revolved around outperformance of broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade. Small caps, builders, retail, travel & leisure, machinery and multis and regional banks among standouts. Follows big underperformance of cyclicals vs defensives on Tuesday amid the momentum unwind. Lower oil/rates the key tailwind. Positive macro surprise momentum another bright spot with upside in June flash PMIs earlier this week. Oil selloff deepens: Oil under pressure again with WTI crude below $70 a barrel, down for a ninth straight session and off more than 35% from Iran conflict highs. Nothing really incremental when it comes to the Middle East, though Strait of Hormuz reopening traction continues to get a lot of attention. Bloomberg discussed how vessels transiting Strait with satellite signals switched on, while International Maritime Organization said it secured safety guarantees for hundreds of ship to exit Gulf. Rate reprieve continues: Treasuries stronger again today with the curve bull flattening. Yield on 30-year bond lowest since mid-April. Oil weakness the go-to excuse despite some of the recent scrutiny surrounding structural influences. Comes on the heels of a big backup in rates on Monday on lingering post-FOMC concerns about a more hawkish reaction function and vol implications from forward guidance policy shift. Big homebuilder rally: Homebuilders rallying sharply with focus on lower rate backdrop. KB Home best performer in the group following earnings. Results/guidance seen as better-than-feared given challenging housing backdrop. Street takeaways talked up mix shift to build-to-order (BTO) and Bay Area outperformance. Softer-than-expected May new home sales data and headline volatility surrounding bipartisan housing affordability seem to be largely ignored. No momentum bounce: Momentum unable to sustain a pre-market bounce (and 3%+ bounce in South Korea overnight) following a big unwind on Tuesday. Underperformance still spun as more about market structure/concentration/leverage unwind than any meaningful shift in the AI narrative. Proliferation of leveraged ETFs (and their momentum/tech focus) a key area of scrutiny. Next big event for momentum trade is Micron earnings after the close. Micron reports after the close: Micron reports fiscal Q3 results after the close Report seen as micro and macro highlight of the week given AI capex trade. Despite getting caught up in momentum unwind on Tuesday, stock still up 166% over last three months, 268% ytd and 722% over last 12 months. Previews flagged color on durability of high-demand, low-supply, manufacturing capacity-constrained backdrop and Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) among key areas of focus. OpenAI and Broadcom announce first custom chip: Broadcom one of the better performers in semi space today. Company and OpenAI announced production of first custom chip for AI inference. Noted that early tests show that the chip, called Jalapeño, will deliver performance per watt "substantially better" than current state-of-the-art offerings. Pretty quiet in terms of sell-side research on the news. Press takeaways have highlighted push toward customization and Nvidia diversification. More talk about rebalancing headwinds: Month/quarter-end hit early next week and Street continues to flag this as a potential technical headwind for equities. Goldman Sachs said that it is estimating $30B of US equities to sell, which it noted ranks in the 89^th percentile among all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over past three years and in the 95^th percentile going back to early 2000. JPMorgan latest to raise S&P 500 price target to 7,800: JPMorgan raised its 2026 year-end price target for S&P 500 to 7,800 from 7,600. Cited strong earnings momentum driven by AI capex boom and solid macro backdrop. However, also flagged a non-linear path higher and need to clear various hurdles, including a higher earnings/capex bar heading into Q2 reporting season. Earlier this week, both Barclays and Stifel also raised their year-end targets to 7,800 on earnings momentum. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jun-2026 10:11	May new home sales miss, weakest since January: May new home sales increased 580K m/m vs consensus for a 640K increase and April's revised 626K (was 622K); May's headline weakest since Jan-26; median sales price was $424,900, up 2.0% m/m and virtually unchanged y/y. Note, both the Senate and House passed an affordable housing bill this week aimed at lowering homebuying costs and curbing institutional investor activity around single-family homes; Trump is expected to sign it into law today. Housing headlines have been mixed this week so far. BofA's latest homebuyer survey found a majority of U.S. consumers now prefer buying over renting for the first time since 2023, signaling "meaningfully" improving sentiment despite ongoing affordability challenges (Reuters). Meanwhile, Redfin reported nearly half of U.S. home sellers gave concessions to buyers in May, the highest May share in record; report noted many would-be homebuyers are backing away due to widespread economic uncertainty (Redfin). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
24-Jun-2026 07:13	Wednesday morning check-in: Mechanical>Fundamental: Lot of sell-side and financial press discussion about Tuesday's momentum unwind (and some other recent pockets of softness in tech). Much of the blame has gone to market structure/concentration/leverage unwind than any meaningful shift in the AI narrative. Proliferation of leveraged ETFs (and their momentum/tech focus) a key area of scrutiny. Fed and fundamentals (open-source competition, capex scrutiny, capacity competition, supply) Micron reports after the close: Micron reports fiscal Q3 results after the close Report seen as micro and macro highlight of the week given AI capex trade. Despite getting caught up in momentum unwind on Tuesday, stock still up 166% over last three months, 268% ytd and 722% over last 12 months. Previews flagged color on durability of high-demand, low-supply, manufacturing capacity-constrained backdrop and Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) among key areas of focus. FedEx earnings takeaways largely positive but stock lags: FedEx fiscal Q4 EPS ahead with most KPIs better than consensus. Street positive on yield momentum, structural cost-outs, expected margin improvement and implied transition period growth. However, takeaways also flagged a high bar into the print, along with noise surrounding spin-off FedEx Freight and shift to December fiscal year-end. Trump says gas prices not falling enough: President Trump ordered DoJ to look into gasoline prices, which he said are not falling fast enough. Argued that big oil companies not dropping prices at the pump commensurate with decline in oil. Average national gas price stands at $3.928 a gallon, down 13% from a month ago. However, price still up nearly 22% from a year ago. Higher gas prices have weighed on sentiment readings but outsized tax refunds have provided a cushion for consumer. Nike announces CFO transition, says fiscal Q4 results will be 'generally in line' with guidance: Nike announced CFO transition, with David Denton, who most recently served as CFO of Pfizer, taking over from Matthew Friend on 17-Aug. Company also said that excluding a one-time tariff refund not previously contemplated, fiscal Q4 results (next week) will be "generally in line" with previously provided guidance. Some thoughts guidance update a disappointment given history of beats. Timing issue (earnings, Fall analyst day) also flagged. Morgan Stanley latest to cap private credit fund redemptions: Morgan Stanley said it capped redemptions at its $7B flagship private credit fund at 5% vs the 11.6% sought by investors. Followed 11.9% redemption request in Q1. Roughly half of the Q2 requests came from investors who had not been able to cash out in prior Q. Outsized redemption request headlines were back in focus on Tuesday and may have played into the weakness in the alt space. More scrutiny in financial press today on insurance industry exposure in private credit (link) Semi fundamentals upbeat: Momentum unwind on Tuesday viewed as more about market structure/concentration than any meaningful shift in fundamental narrative. When it comes to latter, more positive sell-side commentary. BofA boosted its CY30E total semi industry TAM to $2.7T from $2.3T. Noted this represents a 28% CAGR between CY25-30E. Growth in memory/data center the key tailwind. Also noted recovery in auto/industrial. Inflation another upside driver. Robotics and geopolitics: Robotics may become next high-profile area of contention between US and China amid a heightened focus on industrial policy. Politico reported Commerce Secretary Lutnick signaled administration could take strong action in response to what it views as a national security threat related to imports from China's state-backed robotics industry. JPMorgan noted China accounted for 80%+ of all humanoid robot shipments in 2025 and dominates robotics supply chains. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jun-2026 15:37	Afternoon headlines: Markets: Semis drive global market selloff (Bloomberg) SpaceX attracts a massive ~$89B of orders for its first investment-grade bond sale (Bloomberg) Barclays, Stifel both raise S&P 500 price to 7800 on earnings strength (Reuters) Evercore ISI says Big Tech stocks will return to investor favor following upcoming earnings (Bloomberg) Corporate: Meta EssilorLuxottica announce new range of lower-cost AI smart glasses (TechCrunch) Meta CEO Zuckerberg recently directed team to create prediction markets competitor to Kalshi, Polymarket (NY Times) Goldman Sachs traders are on track to generate more than $5B of revenue in Q2 (Bloomberg) Wendy's names industry veteran Steve Cirulis as its new CFO (Reuters) Walmart to acquire Vibe.co in effort to expand its connected television ad business (Bloomberg) Ferrari names new marketing and commercial chief after Luce EV debut (Reuters) Supply chain software maker SPS Commerce exploring a sale amid ‌pressure from activists (Reuters) AI: OpenAI cyberscurity model has similar capabilities to Mythos but has not received similar fanfare, political scrutiny (Axios) Blackstone plans to invest $30B in AI data centers in Japan over the next 3 to 5 years (Nikkei) Iran war: Iranian officials say no plans to allow international inspectors to assess damaged nuclear facilities (Washington Post) Energy: Iran and Oman are negotiating framework for jointly managing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) Russian oil exports reach high of 2026 over past four week at 3.89M bpd (Bloomberg) Russia considering full ban on diesel exports as Moscow rushes to stabilize the domestic fuel market (Oilprice.com) Gulf oil tanker rates nearly double as resumption of exports out of Middle East takes hold (Reuters) Economy: Majority of US consumers now prefer to buy home over renting for first time since 2023 (Reuters) Job cuts at US factories are near highest levels since 2009 and the Covid pandemic (CNBC) Early indicators suggest US labor market could reverse trend and see a positive benchmark revision (Axios) Central banks: Atlanta Fed President search paused, former Treasury official Faulkender possibly under consideration (CNBC) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: BX, GS, META, RACE, SPCX, WEN, WMT, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
23-Jun-2026 12:23	Tuesday midday check-in: Momentum unwind: Momentum unwind the big story with memory/semis under outsized pressure (following 10% selloff in Kospi overnight). Seems to be more about market structure/concentration than fundamentals (several firms have noted no change in strong memory cycle narrative). However, still some focus on a couple of overnight reports. One noted SK Hynix shifting production from HBM4 to DRAM. Another noted potential for memory price weakness in 2027. Stretched semis: Stretched semi positioning remained a theme coming into the week. Goldman Sachs, citing its prime brokerage data, noted that Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. Firm also pointed out that semiconductor stock share of S&P 500 total market cap is at a record 19%, 2x levels seen in 2000. Momentum unwind not driving broader risk off: Momentum unwind weighing on S&P 500 and Nasdaq but not driving a broader risk off trade. A number of Mag 7 names outperforming after being flagged as recent source of funds for memory/semis. AI losers faring better. Defensives a standout with staples, healthcare and utilities all seeing good gains. Financials seeing fairly broad-based gains, though alts down (more redemption headlines). Quantum computing up big on EO. Bearish tech talking points: There has been a flurry of "tech weakness" headlines this week despite the mixed price action. Nothing really new when it comes to the areas of scrutiny, a number of which are intertwined. Open-source competition facing frontier models, corporate pushback against tokenmaxxing, hyperscaler capex ROI/FCF concerns, capacity competition, capital raising and higher rate backdrop/hawkish Fed have all been flagged. Flash PMIs surprise to the upside, underlying composition mixed: Flash manufacturing and services PMIs both ticked up slightly in June and came in a bit better than consensus. Manufacturing highest in over three years and services posted best reading since February, underpinning the solid macro backdrop narrative. However, manufacturing employment fell to lowest level (excluding pandemic) since October 2009 (playing into concerns about demand pull forward and input cost pressures) and prices remained elevated. Rate reprieve: Treasuries firmer after yields backed up 5-6 bp to start the week. Momentum unwind seems to be the source of today's reprieve. Lot of recent discussion on the Street and in the financial press about the Fed's more hawkish reaction function and the potential for a ramp in bond vol from the shift on forward guidance policy. Fed's Goolsbee hawkish again after the close on Monday. Fed's Williams and Kashkari set to speak on Thursday and Friday. Carnival lags on cut to net yield guidance: Carnival Q2 profitability ahead despite slightly softer revenue performance with cost-control a tailwind. Prolonged Middle East conflict a demand headwind but noted more recent improvement in bookings trends. Out-year demand commentary also upbeat. However, seemingly overshadowed by 100 bp downgrade to 2026 net yield guidance. Barclays, Stifel take S&P 500 price targets higher on earnings: Barclays raised its year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,800 from 7,650. Firm flagged a number of areas of uncertainty but said it remains focused on improving earnings outlook. Stifel also raised its price target to 7,800, highlighting earnings as the key tailwind. Earnings strength chalked up to a "running it hot" economy and strong operating leverage. However, also noted elevated stock concentration, rotation out of megacaps and more hawkish Fed. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jun-2026 11:54	Barclays, Stifel the latest to hike S&P 500 year-end price targets: Barclays raised 2026 S&P 500 price target to 7,800 from 7,650, set 2027 target of 8,800. Said equities remain choppy given factors including peace talks volatility, AI spend uncertainty, higher for longer rates, consumer strength. However, said upside driven by stronger Q1 earnings season, reflationary pressure supporting nominal revenue growth, robust industrial activity. Stifel also raised year-end target to 7,800 from prior 7,00. Argued hot economy, strong operating leverage continue to drive explosive profit growth. However, warned concentration, peaking dispersion signals rotation out of megacap, into equal-weight. Wells Fargo strategists highlighted tariff refund tailwinds, saying $166B collected under IEEPA may be refunded by year-end, could provide ~$66B of net benefit in 2H, mostly via buybacks, capex. Also see ~$20B of equity inflows from Trump accounts starting in July, fully concentrated in US equities. Morgan Stanley said Fed Chair Warsh fortifies market credibility for Fed, though tightening liquidity remains greater risk to equity markets in near-term than any fears about Fed raising rates. RBC Capital Markets wrote this week that they continue to hold 7,900 year-end target, but path there not necessarily linear, noting near-term risks around Fed and rates, geopolitics likely to remain risk factor for some time. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jun-2026 10:09	Flash June PMIs show accelerating activity, lower employment, still-elevated prices: Flash June PMI Manufacturing came in at 55.7 vs consensus 54.2 and May's 55.1, now highest since May-22; Flash June PMI Services came in at 51.3 vs consensus 51.2 and May's 50.7, now highest since Feb-26. Report noted US business activity growth accelerated for a third straight month, though remained below early-year levels; employment fell for a second straight month as firms cut costs amid elevated input prices and economic uncertainty. Supply-chain delays worsened in June, driven by Middle East shipping disruptions and tariffs, while input-cost inflation remained elevated; selling-price inflation held at its highest pace since Jul-25, with services inflation accelerating to 11-month high. Elsewhere, June Richmond Fed Index came in at +4.0 vs consensus +8.0 and May's +13.0; index now positive for fourth consecutive month. New orders, shipments, and employment all fell in June, although both shipments and new orders remained in positive territory; price pressures picked up, though firms expect input-cost inflation to moderate over the next year. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jun-2026 07:45	Tuesday morning check-in: Momentum unwind: Momentum unwind the big story today with memory/semis under pressure. Nothing specific behind the move, though concentration concerns (particularly via the proliferation of leveraged ETFs) seem to be the easiest excuse. Also some broader AI capex trade scrutiny with the continued flurry of headlines surrounding open-source model improvements and corporate pushback on tokenmaxxing (though these dynamics are not new). Big Kospi selloff: South Korea's Kospi fell 10% on Tuesday. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both lost more than 12%. Goldman Sachs highlighted a number of factors behind the move, including concentration, flow exhaustion, regulatory backlash surrounding single-stock leveraged ETFs (Reuters), pension rebalancing and profit-taking ahead of Micron earnings. Noted fundamental backdrop/memory cycle remains attractive. Google, SpaceX and Netflix: Google, SpaceX and Netflix some of the high-profile decliners on Monday. Google hit by recent AI exec departures. Source of funds for memory/semis and open-source competition also flagged. Capacity competition mentioned as a broader hyperscaler overhang. SpaceX headlines largely focused on $20B+ bond sale. Netflix pullback chalked up to Meta's announcement of Instagram's TV expansion and a cautious research note highlighting a significant acceleration in US churn. Geopolitics to the backburner: Nothing really incremental on US-Iran following a flurry of headlines over the last few days. Fits with market's seeming interest in relegating geopolitics to the backburner. With rollback in US sanctions on Iranian oil and traction behind release of frozen funds, nuclear still shaping up to be most contentious issue. Iran said today nothing scheduled for UN inspectors to visit its nuclear sites. Followed Vance's comments yesterday about an agreement for IAEA to return to Iran. Goolsbee focused on elevated services inflation: Fed's Goolsbee said in an interview that inflation is well above target and going wrong way. Highlighted services inflation, which is not related to the tariff or energy shocks that could prove transitory, as "disturbing". Noted such pressures can often be more persistent. Concerns about more hawkish Fed reaction function and heightened bond vol from shift in forward guidance highlighted as overhangs on risk sentiment. Outsized private credit redemptions continue: Apollo capped withdrawals at its flagship private credit fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, to 5% of shares after investors sought to redeem nearly 17%. Marked an uptick in redemption requests from 11.2% in prior Q. Apollo said it saw $300M of new commitments, which will limit Q2 net outflows to $400M. Also noted redemptions driven by offshore funds vs US investors. Outsized redemptions increasingly viewed as a feature rather than a bug in private credit. More M&A headlines, dealmaking optimism: Qualcomm reportedly in advanced talks to acquire AI infrastructure software firm Modular for ~$4B (Bloomberg). Public Storage announced acquisition of Public Storage Canada for $1.2B. Edgewater Personal Care reportedly rejected a $30 a share takeover bid from Yellow Wood Partners, arguing it was too low (Bloomberg). Global M&A on track to reach $4T in 2026, making it best year since 2021 (CNBC). Rebalancing headwinds but positive seasonality: JPMorgan has recently discussed both rebalancing and seasonality. Firm estimated ~$165B of equity selling/bond buying related to month- and quarter-end. Incorporates multi-asset investors such as balanced mutual funds, US defined benefit pension funds, the Norwegian oil fund, the SNB and the Japanese GPIF. Also noted more positive seasonality on tap. Over past ten years, S&P has averaged a +3.37% return in July with a 100% hit rate. Tariff and Trump account tailwinds: Wells Fargo flagged two tailwinds it said don't seem to be on market's radar. Noted $28B of tariff refunds have already been issued since early May. Added that even if tariffs get reimposed, a timing mismatch implies a net benefit of as much as $66B in 2H. Also estimated $20B of price-insensitive inflows from Trump accounts starting in July. Pointed out all flows will be in US equities. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
23-Jun-2026 07:36	AI trade facing multiple headwinds including rising competition, ROI concerns: Nothing specific behind latest AI-linked downside, but Monday's Alphabet selloff driven by AI executive departures, more hawkish Fed outlook, ongoing SpaceX selloff (adding to concerns around IPO pipeline, financing AI buildout), overnight 10% drop in South Korea's KOSPI (led to downside by stretched chips/memory names), growing capacity competition (Monday's SpaceX deal with Reflection for compute), circularity concerns all playing into latest bout of weakness. Competition from open source, Chinese models, and orchestration models remains key piece of latest AI caution. China lab Z.ai's GLM 5.2 model (Artificial Analysis), panel models like Japan's Sakana Fugu (The Verge), Openrouter's Fusion (X) have all recently touted similar performance to Anthropic's Fable 5 at fraction of the cost. Goldman Sachs recently said race for intelligence shifting from frontier labs to model orchestration, open-source systems. Argued dynamic would lower costs, broaden access, but accelerate token deflation, raising questions around durability of model economics. Reiterated belief hyperscalers will still be ultimate structural winner, though first to demonstrate equivalent output with lower spend will be rewarded. AI policy uncertainty also remains an overhang, notably after Trump administration last week barred foreign access to Anthropic's most advanced AI platforms. SCMP noted Anthropic suspension has prompted shift toward increasingly capable Chinese models as users mitigate risk of relying on single provider. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, SPCX, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI	show story hide story
22-Jun-2026 14:47	Afternoon Headlines: Iran war: Israel, Hezbollah maintain tense ceasefire in Lebanon for second day as US-Iran talks continue (NY Times) Vance says Iranian officials agreed to allow nuclear inspectors from UN back into country (link) Energy: Flow of oil through Strait of Hormuz running at fastest pace since war began (Bloomberg) US Treasury issues 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil (Quartz) More than 400 large ships holding off eastern side of Strait of Hormuz awaiting wider reopening (FT) US to release 500k barrels of crude oil from SPR to Vitol (link) Corporate: Amazon Prime Day spending expected to rise 9% to $26.3B this year (Bloomberg) Lucid cutting 18% of US headcount, including COO position, in latest cost reduction move (Bloomberg) US airlines poised to save billions on jet fuel costs after the US-Iran peace deal announcement (Oilprice.com) Irish building materials group CRH, Arcosa agrees to all-cash deal at $150 a share, or $8.5B including debt (FT) Robinhood seeking to raise $2B in convertible bond offering to repurchase shares, pay cost of hedging transactions (Bloomberg) AI: SpaceX launches first bond sale, expects to raise $20B to pay off bridge loan, support AI plans (Reuters, Bloomberg) SpaceX agrees to provide computing resources to AI startup ReflectionAI, in $150M/month deal through 2029 (Bloomberg) Groq raised $650M to expand data center capacity (Bloomberg) Google investing $75M into A24 film studio as part of new AI research partnership (link) Fed: BofA sees 75 bp of Fed rate hikes this year, Deutsche Bank at 50 bp (Reuters) Citadel says Warsh's commitment to lowering inflation bolsters credibility, could boost longer-end rates (Bloomberg) Economy: Goldman Sachs cuts 12-month US recession risk estimate to 15% vs prior forecast of 25% (link) Canadian CPI rises to 3.2% y/y level, highest in 29 months (Reuters) Nearly half of US home sellers gave concessions to buyers in May, the highest May share on record (Redfin) Trade/tariffs: EU, Chinese trade officials to meet next Monday to address widening trade imbalances (Bloomberg) Washington: Trump expected to meet with top executives from the largest U.S. defense contractors on Wednesday (CBS) Senate poised to advance housing bill to limit private equity purchases of single-family homes (CNBC) US House Energy and Commerce Committee reaches bipartisan agreement on regulating youth social media use (Reuters) Geopolitics: Five Eyes cyber chiefs say AI-armed adversaries may be able to overwhelm government and corporate defenses within months (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, GOOGL, HOOD, LCID, SPCX	show story hide story
22-Jun-2026 12:27	Monday midday check-in: Momentum outperforming again: Momentum factor outperforming again with memory and bulk of semi names the standouts. Memory helped by positive sentiment into Micron earnings and latest headlines about prolonged supply chain constraints/higher pricing (DigiTimes). When it comes to Micron earnings, previews flagged Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) and supply and pricing dynamics among key areas of focus. Mag 7 lags with Google under pressure on latest AI departure: Mag 7, which has been flagged as a source of funds, underperforming again. Google worst performer in the group on news that Google DeepMind data scientist and Nobel Prize winner John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic. Follows last week's disclosure that Noam Shazeer, co-lead of company's Gemini AI models, will leave the company to join OpenAI. Yields up as hawkish Fed takeaways reverberate: Post-FOMC bond yield backup has resumed today with 10-year yields near the key 4.50% level. Backup has come despite another leg lower in crude. BofA said today it now expects three 25 bp rate hikes this year, coming in September, October and December. Deutsche Bank said it now expects 25 bp hikes in September and December. Both firms had previously forecasted no change in policy this year. Oil down on US-Iran talk traction: Oil has taken another leg lower after WTI fell over 10.5% last week. Pullback a function of "encouraging progress" out of recent US-Iran talks in Switzerland and related move by Treasury to issue a 60-day general license for production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil (though move was widely expected given MOU language). In addition, flow of oil through SoH now running at fastest pace since war began (Bloomberg) Pockets of broadening out trade working: Select broadening out/reopening/cyclical plays outperforming today. Regional banks, trucking and rails, all of which tended to lag last week, among the better performers. Machinery and airlines, both of which also outperformed last week, some of the other standouts. Small caps and crypto also beating the tape. Goldman Sachs recently noted that equity flows have expanded into financials, cyclicals and parts of Europe and Asia. (modest) M&A Monday: A couple of deals in the headlines for Monday. AbbVie to acquire Apogee in a deal with an EV of nearly $11B to boost its anti-inflammatory business. CRH to acquire Arcosa in a deal with an EV of $8.5B to boost its exposure to US infrastructure demand. According to recent update from PwC, US M&A deal value reached $1.2T in first five months of 2026, nearly double the year-earlier period. Retail driving flows: US equities saw a record net inflow of nearly $120B last week. Retail has received a lot of attention as an outsized driver of both flows and demand. Citadel Securities (Rubner) recently noted retail volumes are tracking 9% above May's record-breaking levels in June. Added 12-Jun marked largest single day of retail net buying in its dataset, breaking previous record by 50%. Also discussed how retail increasingly concentrated in semis. Equities may be too complacent on Fed: Latest Nomura Cross-Asset update (McElligott) highlighted positive macro surprise momentum, including when it comes to inflation data. Pointed out that despite upside inflation surprises, equity market remains skeptical of any meaningful Fed tightening. Flagged potential danger if Fed waits for summer data to confirm/deny the transitory inflation narrative, as it raises likelihood of more aggressive ("catch-up") hikes. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
22-Jun-2026 08:26	Street sees resilient AI fundamentals, pockets of extended positioning: Goldman Sachs trading desk argued AI trade remains intact despite ongoing debates around token commoditization, hyperscaler spending. Said its US memory basket, inference beneficiaries basket continue to see net income growth relative to market caps, suggesting structural fundamentals carrying the rally. Fidelity also highlighted AI optimism, noting semiconductors supported by booming corporate earnings, trading at reasonable 20x forward earnings. However, extended positioning in focus. BTIG noted semiconductor vs Nasdaq ratio has surged 46% in past 12 weeks, logged unusual number of 5% up days (nine over past 60 sessions), a velocity seen only at major critical tops or absolute depths of bear markets. BofA recently highlighted cumulative inflows to tech stocks at record $154B annualized pace. Goldman also noted US tech exposure near five-year highs, though exposure to Mag 7 stocks has fallen to one-year lows due to relative price underperformance, elevated short selling. Some cautious signaling from broader positioning, however. JPMorgan indicated hedge fund gross leverage hit 100th percentile across all strategies. Goldman's Prime Brokerage desk also noted hedge funds turned into modest net sellers of US equities after four straight weeks of net buying. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
22-Jun-2026 07:20	Monday morning check-in: Quiet start to week: Market not doing much after S&P finished higher for 11^th time in last 12 weeks last week, while DJIA and R2K ended at ATHs. US-Iran talks saw progress despite some initial noise, though geopolitical reprieve has been in play for a while. Some talk of a catalyst vacuum into start of Q2 earnings in a couple of weeks. AI, earnings and solid macro still the big bullish talking points. Hawkish Fed reaction function now one of the key areas of scrutiny. Talks between US and Iran deliver 'encouraging progress': Positive spin on US-Iran talks that kicked off Sunday in Switzerland, despite some earlier complications from fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and Trump comments about attacking Iran again. Joint statement by mediating parties noted encouraging progress has been made. Technical working groups were created, a deconfliction mechanism was established to halt fighting in Lebanon, and a communication line was formed to deal with Strait of Hormuz. Microsoft's Nadella warns about concentration of AI power: Microsoft CEO Nadella expressed concern about concentration of AI power in an interview and highlighted company's strategy focused on lower-cost models. Fits with heightened corporate push, including among early adopters, to cut down on wasteful AI use and/or shift to open-source models to control costs, a dynamic that has continued to receive a lot of attention in the press (FT). Nadella also talked up importance of more user control and better political messaging. Trump says Anthropic no longer national security threat: Axios noted that President Trump said in an interview that he no longer views Anthropic as a national security threat. Added that the two sides are reportedly working on standards to evaluate AI jailbreaks and their relationship seems to be on the mend. White House's recent export ban on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 played into concerns about political/geopolitical containment and competition from China/open-source models. Big inflows to US equities with tech a bright spot: BofA's Flow Show report, citing data from EPFR Global, noted US equities attracted a record net $119.2B inflow in week-ended 17-Jun. Added that US equities are annualizing a record $739B inflow in 2026. Tech attracted a record $19.2B last week. Goldman Sachs also said that flows have expanded into financials, cyclicals and parts of Europe and Asia, though not at the expense of AI (Mag 7 gross and net exposure down to 1-year lows). Positioning now slightly overweight: Deutsche Bank said in its latest Investor Positioning and Flows report that its measure of aggregate equity positioning increased from modestly underweight to slightly above neutral (0.05sd, 42nd percentile) at the end of last week. Pointed out that discretionary investor positioning increased from underweight to slightly below neutral (-0.07sd, 41st percentile), while systematic strategies (0.19sd, 48th percentile) held at modestly overweight levels. BofA sees 75 bp worth of Fed rate hikes this year, Deutsche Bank at 50 bp: Market currently pricing in just over 40 bp of rate hikes for 2026. However, BofA more hawkish, noting it now expects three 25 bp rate hikes this year, coming in September, October and December. Firm cited combination of hawkish data and more hawkish reaction function. Deutsche Bank said it now expects 25 bp hikes in September and December vs prior forecast for no change. Both firms expect Fed to remain on hold in 2027. Bond vol expected to increase with Fed guidance shift: Fed has received a lot of attention following hawkish takeaways from Warsh's first meeting as new chair. One of the bigger themes has revolved around expectations for a pickup in bond market volatility stemming from the shift on forward guidance. Also thoughts the heightened uncertainty could drive yields higher (FT). Also more discussion about how a Warsh Fed's biggest challenge will be how to assess AI's implications for productivity (link). Trade headlines continue to lean hawkish: Trade still largely on the backburner, though headlines continue to lean more hawkish. China hit two US rare earths firms with export controls to "safeguard national security and interests" (Reuters). Also warned about heightened risk of global supply chain fragmentation (Bloomberg). More discussion in the press about Trump administration's push to replicate the tariffs struck down by SCOTUS (Bloomberg). US lawmakers also concerned Trump may abandon USMCA (NY Times). Quiet week on tap with Micron earnings and PCE inflation the highlights: Micron earnings Wednesday after the close the highlight on the corporate calendar. Last week saw a flurry of upbeat previews. Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA) and supply and pricing dynamics the key areas of focus. Stock up nearly 300% ytd. Macro highlights include flash PMIs on Tuesday, PCE inflation on Thursday, and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
22-Jun-2026 06:28	Iran, US make significant progress in latest talks, some cautious optimism around crude flows: US, Iran made encouraging progress in first round of talks in Switzerland, according to Qatari and Pakistani mediators, as parties agreed to roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days (FT, Bloomberg). Lower-level delegations to continue negotiating technical matter through this week. Included establishment of communication line to avoid incidents, agreement to creation of deconfliction cell to halt fighting in Lebanon. US said discussions included clarifying confusing messaging from Iran on Strait of Hormuz, building mechanisms to ensure strait to remain fully open, while Iran's Tehran said talks delivered major progress to ending Lebanon war. Followed some cautious headlines earlier in the weekend. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared Strait of Hormuz shut due to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah (CNBC). Data showed just 12 ships transited strait Sunday, down from more than 21 on Saturday. However, Iran sent 6M barrels on three-US sanctioned supertankers Monday, most since war began (Bloomberg). Caution remains over full normalization of Strait of Hormuz, with markets pricing ~50% chance of traffic returning to normal by the end of August, down from 70% last week after initial agreement (Kalshi). Markets also priced 41 bp of rate hikes through year-end (a fresh cycle high for Dec-26 fed funds futures contract) overnight, suggesting fears of ongoing price pressures from war. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Jun-2026 14:54	Afternoon Headlines: Iran war: VP Vance says 60-day negotiation window with Iran has officially begun (Reuters) Israel outlines expanded military control zone in southern Lebanon, won't rule out attacks beyond it (Reuters) U.S. Navy officially ends blockade of Iran's ports and coastal areas (CNBC) Energy: OPEC Secretary dismisses IEA's prediction of a new oil supply glut in 2027 (CNBC) OPEC continues to see no peak in global oil demand, forecasting "robust growth" (Bloomberg) Three Saudi-flagged oil tankers sail through Hormuz since Iran deal signed (Reuters) AI: Amazon in discussions to sell custom AI chips to other companies in challenge Nvidia (Bloomberg) Anthropic in daily discussions with Trump officials to resolve security concerns surrounding its models (Bloomberg) Deutsche Bank says AI is enabling tasks that once took years to be completed within months (Reuters) Federal regulators approve Trump plan to connect AI data centers to US grid (AP) Report claims flooding, extreme winds, wildfires, and heat threaten 79% of global data center capacity (Quartz) Conservative group plans nationwide protests against "unchecked expansion" of datacenters (Axios) Corporate: Snap's Specs are estimated to have cost $3.5B to develop, including $500M in annual cash burn (Inc) Sweden may oppose Tesla's supervised self-driving tech in Europe over speeding concerns (Reuters) Economy: US average gas prices fall below $4/gallon for the first time since March (AP) US student-loan defaults rose to a record 9.16M in April (Bloomberg) Markets: Charles Schwab saw one of its five busiest trading days in its history when SpaceX made its IPO (Bloomberg) JPMorgan says oil plunge could serve as key tailwind for attractively priced European equities (Oilprice.com) Central banks: Warsh's push for less Fed forward guidance could mean he won't have as firm a grip on the policy narrative (NY Times) Large US banks requesting last-minute technical tweaks to proposed regulatory overhaul (Reuters) Geopolitics: US to conduct six-month review of military posture in Europe as it seeks to scale back its footprint (Washington Post) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, NVDA, SNAP, SPCX, TSLA, +ANTHROPIC...(more)	show story hide story
18-Jun-2026 12:33	Bearish talking points for holiday-shortened week-ended 18-Jun: Hawkish Fed takeaways as SEP showed 9 of 18 members now looking for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh repeatedly stressed Fed's focus on delivering price stability. Also repeatedly referenced creation of task forces (to examine communications, balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs and inflation frameworks) rather than address questions on economy and policy outlook. AI political/geopolitical containment and China/open-source model competition concerns ratcheted up afterCommerce Dept. ordered Anthropic late last Friday to suspend all access by foreign nationals to its most advanced models, Claude Fable 5 and Mythos, due to "jailbreaking" risks. Company argued move was an overreach but disabled access to all customers to ensure compliance. Broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade lost some momentum despite continued oil selloff (and Morgan Stanley comments about favorable positioning and how earnings revisions breadth not yet peaking). Transports (despite airline strength), consumer discretionary (including retail) and regional banks among the notable laggards. However, machinery, multis and builders largely outperformed. Trade headlines continued to lean negative and some concerns not getting enough attention with focus on geopolitics, Fed and AI. Trump said this week US would do better without the USMCA trade agreement and he would prefer not to have a new one. Comments fit with concerns about a ramp in uncertainty that could accompany a shift to rolling reviews. Elevated semi volatility highlighted as a potential driver of de-risking moves. JPMorgan discussed how a combination of higher semi vol and elevated semi exposures could potentially trigger VaR shocks for portfolios, forcing them to reduce positions. Noted this dynamic seemed to be in play amid selloff in early June. Also flagged challenge from high valuations. Earnings scrutiny in the financial press. Report discussed how while AI capex surge has been the big driver of outsized earnings growth (Q2 expected to mark second straight Q of 20%+ S&P 500 EPS growth), related depreciation expense is expected to be a headwind. Also highlighted a wide range of uncertainty in sell-side models surrounding the hit. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Jun-2026 12:32	Bullish talking points for holiday-shortened week-ended 18-Jun: Big oil selloff on US-Iran MOU traction, with deal signed earlier than expected on Wednesday. WTI and Brent both down ~30% over past month. MOU seen as friendly from an energy supply standpoint. Additional pressure on oil from multiple headlines related to Gulf players looking to quickly ramp production and tankers already transiting Strait of Hormuz. AI demand narrative continued to find widespread support. Morgan Stanley raised PTs on HDD names, flagging potential for material pricing upside. Also a flurry of very upbeat Micron earnings previews. Jabil said in its earnings release that AI infrastructure demand remains "extremely strong". Narrowing gap between open and closed models (and potential to further boost demand) another topic of interest. May retail sales underpinned consumer resilience theme. Headline retail sales increased 0.9% m/m vs consensus for a 0.5% gain, helped by 3.4% jump in gas station receipts. However, gains broad based as 11 of 13 categories increased. Core retail sales, which feed into GDP, increased 0.7%, better than consensus for a 0.4% gain. Outsized tax refunds a widely cited cushion against gas price spike. Memory stocks in South Korea and US continued to rally on Thursday despite comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook. Cook, who said price increases coming due to surge in memory and storage costs, noted company would be willing to use its balance sheet to fund memory capacity expansion. Also suggested restrictions on purchases from China should loosened. Better positioning/sentiment dynamics to start the week. Deutsche Bank noted overall positioning fell sharply last week from moderately overweight (66th percentile) to modestly underweight (34th percentile), driven by large-cap tech. AAII bull-bear spread deteriorated to -17.3% late last week, its lowest level since early April. Positive strategist commentary as Wells Fargo boosted its year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,950 from 7,300. Cited stronger corporate earnings (raised 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates by 8% and 7%, respectively) and dampened macro concerns following US-Iran deal. Also noted liquidity remains strong and sentiment firmly neutral following NDX selloff last week. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Jun-2026 08:45	Initial claims tick slightly lower w/w; June Philly Fed Index shows rising employment, still-elevated prices: Initial claims came in at 226K vs consensus 225K and prior week's upwardly revised 230K (was 229K); 4-week moving average was 223,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's; despite recent uptick, analysts view initial jobless claims as still subdued, attributing the rise to residual seasonality. Continuing claims came in at 1810K vs consensus 1800K and previous week's downwardly revised 1786K (was 1795K). Elsewhere, June Philadelphia Fed Index came in at +10.3 vs consensus +7.5 and May's -0.4, which was the first negative reading since Dec-25. Current shipments index rose 10 points to 14.9, and the index for current new orders rose 29 points to 27.3; inventories index fell 15 points to -8.5, its lowest reading since Jul-24. Employment index rose 11 points to 7.9, its highest reading since January, although most firms reported no change in employment levels; prices paid index rose 5 points to 53.2, while current prices received index fell 6 points to 20.3, its lowest reading since February. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Jun-2026 07:16	StreetAccount event recap: June FOMC meeting Fed held rates steady at its June 16-17 meeting, as was widely expected; vote was unanimous with no hawkish dissents. While previews had looked for some statement changes reflecting incoming Chair Warsh's reticence about forward guidance, what was released was a dramatic shortening. Given the overhaul, analysts focused on what was included, taking particular note of a direct statement the committee will deliver price stability and a reaffirmation of the Fed's ample-reserves policy. No format changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), but content was seen as decidedly hawkish. On the dot plot, nine of 18 submitted 2026 dots (Warsh did not submit) forecast one or more hikes this year; recall no member pointed to 2026 hikes in the March edition. The median dots for 2027 and 2028 also moved up vs March while the longer-run median ticked down fractionally. The SEP's economic projections marked down both GDP and the unemployment rate for 2026, but much more analyst focus on higher core PCE forecasts (which stepped up vs March for each year through 2028). BofA noted this could mean the committee is concerned with inflation persistence and does not expect to get back to target soon. In the press conference, Warsh avoided giving forward guidance himself though he did say that while Fed policy generally appears to be restrictive, the impacts are uneven (flagged pressures on housing). Stressed FOMC members are "unambiguous and unanimous" about delivering price stability. Suggested a cut was not part of the debate, and even the debate about a hold was quite limited. A lot of comment on Warsh's announcement of five task forces to review Fed communications, balance-sheet policy, use of and reliance on existing data sources, view on productivity and jobs, and Fed's inflation framework; on the latter, however, Warsh noted elsewhere the 2% inflation target would be outside the task forces' scope. While these projects did give some indication how Warsh may go about his "regime change" impulse, analysts noted all of these topics have recently been reviewed by the Fed and it is unclear they will reach new conclusions. Overall, analysts found many aspects of the June meeting to be hawkish. SEP was a standout in that category given upward shift in dots and higher core PCE expectations. Though Warsh downplayed dot-plot's significance (said forecasts were made with pencils "with big erasers"), Deutsche Bank noted he also did not push back on its hawkish signal or lean into potential dovish arguments. JP Morgan argued the dot plot indicated that members' tolerance for further inflation disappointments may be low. All that said, while Fedwatch shows the market now pricing in a hike in September, several analysts continue to believe the Fed will remain on hold through 2026. UBS argued the new chair regime and dispersion of panelist views points to an extended hold, at least until the task-force process is complete. Goldman Sachs observed the June SEP forecasts could prove stale with Mideast trade set to resume. But BofA sees half of the committee having lost patience on inflation, and Deutsche Bank said a committee that does not rely on forward guidance may be nimbler, potentially setting up sooner hikes. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
18-Jun-2026 06:54	Trump signs Iran MoU, oil extends decline with expected jump in Iranian supply: Trump formally signed interim peace deal with Iran Wednesday, focused on Strait of Hormuz reopening, 60-day negotiating window over nuclear program, withdrawal of military from proximity of Iran within 30 days (Bloomberg, link). VP Vance, Iran's lead negotiator scheduled to meet in Switzerland Friday for ceremonial signing, start further talks to permanently end war. Next round of talks to focus on restrictions to nuclear program. However, some Trump administration officials are skeptical Iran intends to make nuclear concessions (Axios), while nuclear position has already faced bipartisan criticism (Bloomberg). Deal favorable to global energy supply, however. Iran to restart oil exports immediately, with US granting sanctions waivers. Some estimates show Iran could benefit from more than $60B a year in oil revenue, add ~1M bpd above pre-conflict levels over two to three years if all sanctions lifted (link). Following signing, oil flows through Strait of Hormuz have already picked up, with three Saudi supertankers exiting Strait of Hormuz following signing, the first Saudi-owned tankers to cross since war began (Bloomberg). However, shipping trade groups say they are waiting on more clarity on mines, while some insurers and shipowners still need further assurance to restore traffic. Deal also leaves open possibility of Iran enforcing tolls after 60 day period. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jun-2026 15:02	Afternoon Headlines: Iran war: US and Iran discussing holding the signing of the MoU remotely as early as Wednesday (Axios) Israel rejects US request to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon (Bloomberg) Trump says US will not invest $300B reconstruction fund floated for Iran (FT) More tankers transit Strait of Hormuz with their transponders switched off (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed keep rates unchanged after latest FOMC meeting; officials still split over hikes this year (Bloomberg) Fed's latest SEP calls for rate hike in 2026, PCE forecast moved higher (CNBC) Energy: Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 8.3M barrels during the week ending June 12 (Oilprice.com) TotalEnergies says major Saudi refinery will not fully recover from Iran war until 2027 (Oilprice.com) Iraq is preparing to boost oil exports from its southern ports once Hormuz fully reopens (Bloomberg) Corporate: Trump says talks with Anthropic are 'going fine' amid ongoing Mythos dispute (Quartz) CME CEO Duffy stepping down, effective Mar-27 (FT) AI startup Genspark valued at $2.6B in latest funding round (Reuters) Quantum tech firm EigenQ to go public in $3B SPAC deal (Reuters) Saudi Aramco considering selling a stake in its sulfur business, could raise up to $7B (Reuters) Markets: Citadel says retail investors poured into US stocks at record pace on day of SpaceX IPO, surpassing previous record by 58% (Bloomberg) SEC poised to allow crypto companies to offer blockchain-based stocks (Reuters) Economy: Mortgage purchase applications fall as 30Y mortgage rate holds at 6.60% (CNBC) Washington: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission set to release long-awaited guidance for connecting datacenters to the power grid (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CME, SPCX, +ANTHROPIC	show story hide story
17-Jun-2026 14:23	Fed leaves rates unchanged; 9 of 18 FOMC participants see a 2026 rate hike: June FOMC meeting ended with rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as widely expected; statement was significantly shortened, emphasizing that economic growth remains solid and labor market stable, while noting elevated uncertainty stemming from Iran conflict; Fed also reiterated inflation remains above its 2% target. Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows 12.5 bps of additional tightening by end of 2026, taking the median policy rate midpoint to 3.75%; compares with market pricing of roughly 19 bps of hikes ahead of the meeting and a March SEP that projected 25 bps of rate cuts; 9 of 18 officials are projecting at least one rate hike this year (including six expecting multiple hikes); only one forecasted a cut, while Warsh did not submit; median dot for both 2027 and 2028 also moved higher. Policymakers now expected 4.3% unemployment rate in 2026 (vs 4.4% in March); 2026 headline PCE of 3.6% (vs 2.7% in March), while core PCE seen at 3.3% (vs 2.7% in March); GDP growth forecasted at 2.2% (vs 2.4% in March). During the press conference, Chair Warsh said forward guidance is no longer well-suited to the current policy environment; also announced the creation of five independent task forces that will review key aspects of the Fed's framework and operations, with recommendations expected to include potential changes to the SEP framework. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jun-2026 08:47	May retail sales report ahead of consensus; May pending home sales beat: Headline May retail sales increased 0.9% m/m vs consensus for 0.55% gain and April's 0.4% increase (revised from +0.5%); May retail sales ex-autos up 0.8% m/m vs consensus for 0.5% gain and April's unrevised 0.7% increase. Control group sales (which feed into GDP) increased 0.7% m/m vs consensus for 0.4% rise and April's unrevised 0.5% gain. Increase in sales seen in gas stations (+3.4%), miscellaneous stores (+2.3%), online stores (+1.5%), cars/parts dealers (+1.2%), furniture/home stores (+1.0%), health/personal care stores (+0.6%), general merchandise stores (+0.4%), clothing/accessories stores (+0.3%), and sporting goods/hobby stores (+0.3%) Sales in food/beverage stores and building materials/garden stores were flat m/m; sales declines seen in electronic/appliances stores (-0.5%), and restaurants/bars (-0.1%). Another strong retail sales report reinforces consumer resilience narrative that BofA, among others, has been highlighting and offers support against imminent concerns of a material slowdown in US consumption. Elsewhere, May pending home sales rose 3.8% m/m vs consensus for 0.9% rise and April's 1.4% increase; largest monthly increase since Sep-24. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
17-Jun-2026 06:25	US-Iran MOU largely as previewed, multiple items to be finalized by more negotiation: Bloomberg overnight published the text of the 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding, scheduled to be signed in Switzerland this Friday. Provisions largely in line with prior press reports. Along with ending hostilities (including in Lebanon), providing for a 60-day negotiating period, and having Iran reiterate it will never produce nuclear weapons, the agreement provides that: The US will lift its naval blockade immediately upon the MOU signing, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be restored to full capacity within 30 days (with Iran removing "technical obstacles" and neutralizing mines). The US and regional partners will create a plan for the "rehabilitation and economic development" of Iran, ensuring at least $300B in financing. The US Treasury will issue waivers allowing Iran to export crude and petrochemical products and services until sanctions are ultimately lifted. In light of the progress toward a final agreement, the US undertakes to make frozen/restricted Iranian funds fully available. The MOU also says several items will be determined by a final agreement, including removal of all sanctions on Iran and the fate of its nuclear material/program. Lot of commentary on the $300B redevelopment fund, which Reuters reported yesterday is a private investment vehicle containing no government money and which is already more than half committed. Recall Trump recently said the idea the US is paying Iran is fake news (Truth Social). Overall, some sense of optimism continues to prevail, though with the broad understanding that thorny issues still need to be ironed out and a return to the status quo ante may take time. US officials cautioning that the MOU is a "political document" and ongoing negotiations are more important (CNN). G7 leaders released a statement praising the MOU but stressing need for further negotiations. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jun-2026 15:04	Afternoon Headlines: Iran war: US-Iran deal will allow Iran to immediately sell oil and fuel, with waivers also covering banking, transport, and insurance services (link) $300B Iran investment fund will be a private vehicle with no government money (Al-Monitor) Signing of the interim US-Iran peace deal will take place on Friday near Lucerne in Switzerland (Bloomberg) Lebanese media report four dead in Israeli airstrikes near Nabatieh in southern Lebanon Tuesday (Times of Israel) US intelligence agencies assess Iran can now shut down Strait of Hormuz at will, leverage targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure (CNN) Senate GOP pressing Trump administration for peace deal details, demand vote on final agreement (Bloomberg) Corporate: Microsoft considering a Microsoft-hosted version of DeepSeek as a cheaper model option (Axios) Netflix reportedly considering acquiring Lionsgate Studios after losing out on Roku acquisition to Fox (Semafor) SpaceX formally agrees to buy Cursor, as expected, for $60B (Bloomberg) HPE announces closer collaboration with NVIDIA on AI servers (link) Apple to release first AI-focused wearable in 2027 with camera-equipped AirPods (Bloomberg) Mobileye says it intends to launch its own robotaxi service in the US in 2027 (CNBC) Rivian announces hundreds of layoffs impacting service, customer service, sales and marketing (link) Yum Brands selling Pizza Hut chain for $2.7B, with LongRange Capital buying non-China portion (Reuters) Databricks announces acquisition of Panther Labs as it pushed deeper into cybersecurity (Reuters) France's domestic intelligence agency cuts contract with Palantir, replaces it with local rival ChapsVision (FT) Snap introduces $2,195 Specs AR-enabled glasses (Bloomberg) Energy: QatarEnergy ready to resume LNG production at Ras Laffan very quickly, remaining issues centered on shipping (Reuters) Trump says US could soon reimpose oil sanction on Russia, now that oil is flowing again (Yahoo) Markets: Wells Fargo boosts S&P year-end target on easing macro worries, Iran-US deal, rate-hike already priced in (Bloomberg) SpaceX valuation surpasses Amazon, briefly jumps ahead of Microsoft (CNBC) Leveraged bets on SpaceX generate more than $1B in trading volume in first day (Bloomberg) SpaceX options trading starts Tuesday, analysts say volatility skewed sharply to upside (Bloomberg) Washington: Trump invokes defense production act for munitions, supply chains (US News) Crypto: Binance poised to lose permission to offer services to EU clients within weeks (Reuters) Economy: US import prices surge to four year high in May as computer equipment jumps by second most since at least 1994 (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AAPL, FFL, FOXA, HPE, MBLY, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR, RIVN, ROKU, SNAP, SPCX, YUM...(more)	show story hide story
16-Jun-2026 08:49	Housing starts lowest since 2020; May import/export prices hotter than expected: May housing starts came in at 1.177M vs consensus 1.430M and down 15.4% m/m from April's revised 1.392M (was 1.465M); starts now lowest since May-20; Single-family housing starts at 882K, 1.9% below April's 899K. May building permits came in at 1.413M vs consensus 1.420M and down 0.7% m/m from April's revised 1.423M (was 1.442M); Single-family authorizations at 886K, up 0.6% from April's 881K. Builder sentiment remains subdued with yesterday's latest NAHB Housing Market Index still hovering around lowest levels since 2020. Elsewhere this morning, May Export Price Index rose 1.3% m/m vs consensus 0.3% and April's 3.5% gain; Import Price Index up 1.9% m/m vs consensus 1.0% and April's 2.0% rise. Prices for US imports rose 6.7% from May 2025 to May 2026, the largest annual advance since Aug-22 amid higher fuel prices. Meanwhile, ADP weekly private-payrolls report showed average growth of 25.5K over past four weeks, down from 29K last week and fourth-straight weekly deceleration. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
16-Jun-2026 07:00	BofA's latest survey shows some moderating bullishness: BofA's June Global Fund Manager Survey said investors remain bullish, but slightly less so m/m. FMS Sentiment down 0.6 points to 6.0, cash level up 0.2 pp to 4.1%, though Bull & Bear Indicator rising from 7.8 in May to 8.9, in sell-signal territory. Note, survey period ended Thursday (11-Jun), just before Iran detail odds increased last Friday. Allocations to equities down 12 points to net 38% after allocation to stocks highest since Jan-22 in May. Investors also slightly less overweight US equities, down three points m/m to net 17%, while allocation to tech down seven points m/m to net 26%. Global growth optimism improved from net -14% to net -1%, while global profit expectations highest in three months. At the same time, net 34% expect higher short-term rates, highest since Sep-22. Biggest tail risk was second wave of inflation at 34%, though AI bubble up from 5% in April to 28%. Long semiconductors seen as most crowded trade at 80% (most in FMS history). Report tracks Street optimism on stocks, with some shifts in leadership. Morgan Stanley and JPM this week highlighted cyclicals upside as geopolitical tensions dissipate, oil prices fall, and under-owned consumer trade improves. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jun-2026 15:03	Afternoon Headlines: US-Iran: US-Iran peace deal signing ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland according to Pakistan (NBC) Some Israeli officials cautious or pessimistic on prospects for Iran deal (Washington Post) European allies more pessimistic on Strait of Hormuz reopening given de-mining, Trump's accelerated timeline (Bloomberg) AI: Senior Anthropic staff will meet with Trump officials to try to resolve Mythos dispute (CNBC) Anthropic facing lawsuit over usage limits on Claude Max subscriptions (Quartz) Federal judge dismisses trade-secret lawsuit brought by Musk's xAI against OpenAI (Reuters) Data shows AI-referred US shoppers browse longer, spend more per visit (Reuters) Salesforce acquires AI customer service platform Fin for $3.6B (TechCrunch) Corporate: Nvidia to raise $20B-25B through US bond issuance, its first foray into the debt market in five years (Reuters) Novo Nordisk confirm cyber breach of clinical data, no threat actor claimed responsible yet (link) New World screwworm has spread beyond initial containment zone in Texas (Bloomberg) UK to ban social media for those under age 16 (Reuters) Markets: SpaceX IPO raises $85.7B as underwriters exercise 'greenshoe' option (TechCrunch) Shares of large US industrial companies reach record highs after US-Iran interim peace deal (Bloomberg) Citadel expects says higher rates may challenge risk assets, citing similarities to dot-com boom, 70's oil shock (Bloomberg) JPM trading desk more bullish on Middle East optimism, still see risks from hawkish Fed, leveraged ETFs (Bloomberg) Energy: US strategic petroleum reserve at its lowest level since 1983 amid ongoing releases (Bloomberg) Russia rolls back some environmental rules for domestic fuel production amid shortages (Oilprice.com) Central banks: Trump to give Warah greater flexibility even if he does not immediately cut rates (CNBC) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CRM, NVDA, NVO, SPCX, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
15-Jun-2026 14:55	StreetAccount Event Preview: May retail sales May retail sales out Wednesday (17-Jun, 8:30 ET). Headline retail sales consensus of 0.55% slightly above April 0.5% print. Retail sales ex-autos expected to tick down 0.1 pp to 0.6%. Control group sales (which feed into GDP) also expected to tick down to 0.4% after April 0.46% print, which was lowest since December. In-line print would mark third-straight monthly decline, would pull 3m moving average down to 0.56%, though comes after ~0.73% level in prior two months was highest since May-22. Goldman Sachs said it expects below consensus 0.2% increase in core retail sales, noting solid consumer backdrop validated by recent alternative data, but expect potential payback after recent strong retail sales prints. BofA economists said card spend for May remained strong, up 5.1% y/y, though up just 0.1% m/m. However, did note increases driven by gas (on higher prices), ecomm, furniture, though weakness in categories including department stores, grocery, home improvement. Bank sees 0.7% increase in control group sales, saying data continue to support consumer resilience narrative. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jun-2026 08:52	StreetAccount Event Preview: June FOMC meeting Fed holding its June FOMC meeting this week, with statement and latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) coming at 2pm Eastern on Monday followed by Chair Warsh's inaugural press conference at 2:30pm. Lot of discussion in analyst previews about potential changes to all of these elements given the influence of the incoming chair. No change expected to rates at this meeting (and no dissents expected), though statement may see some notable edits. Labor-market language forecast to see some upgrade given recent solid job growth. More focus on fate of forward guidance statement in paragraph 3. Given Warsh's past statements against forward guidance and multiple intermeeting remarks from policymakers about eliminating implicit guidance, previews discussed a range of possible changes, including a shift from "additional adjustments" to "any adjustments"; the complete removal of that sentence is also seen as a possibility. Some notes see potential for a broad overhaul of the statement; BofA argues he may not have had enough time as chair to orchestrate this. Few previews anticipate significant edits or elimination of the SEP at this meeting, though possible changes are seen in meetings ahead given Warsh's past criticisms. Analysts mixed as to whether the incoming chair will submit his own dots. Several analysts noted the Fed concluded a comprehensive communications review just last year; BofA said forcing through changes at this point could be seen as an affront. In terms of the content, economic projections are seen paring down economic growth forecasts and shifting inflation forecasts higher (particularly headline PCE). On the dots, general consensus expects removal of the 2026 cut implied by the March SEP median, with possibility a few dots could shift into hike territory. Thoughts 2027 could show flat or one 25 bp cut. Another mix of opinion on whether longer-run dot shifts up to 3.25% or holds at 3.125%. A lot of speculation about what happens with the press conference given Warsh's past statements about Fed officials talking too much. General sense seems to be Warsh will carry over Powell's style into the June press conference (including an opening statement and press Q&A) though he could signal changes ahead, including a possible return to once-quarterly FOMC press conferences; however, Goldman Sachs suggests it may be difficult to move along a less-transparent path. Warsh seen likely to avoid anything smacking of forward guidance in his statements. However, tone expected to lean dovish, with Warsh potentially referencing items like the Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE, difficulties in inflation measurement, lack of pressure from wage inflation, and AI/productivity benefits. Previews also forecast Warsh may face many questions from reporters on how he may operationalize his past statements about "regime change" at the Fed. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jun-2026 08:44	June Empire State Manufacturing Index shows expanding employment, still-elevated prices: June Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at +5.7 (vs consensus +12.6, prior +19.6); index now lowest since March-26, though still positive for third straight month. New orders declined to +3.5 from +22.7; shipments fell to +8.6 from +18.9; inventories decreased to +0.0 from +9.7. Employment expanded for fifth consecutive month as did the length of the average workweek; employment index rose to +9.6 from +8.3. Prices paid decreased to +61.0 from +62.6, while prices received fell to +31.4 from +31.8. Regarding future outlook, 44% of firms expect activity to increase over the next six months. Companies anticipate stronger new orders and shipments, continued hiring, and worsening supply availability. Price expectations rose sharply, with future selling price index reaching its highest since 2022. Elsewhere, May US Industrial Production increased 0.1% m/m vs consensus for 0.3% rise and April's 0.9% increase (revised from +0.7%); May Capacity Utilization of 76.2% vs consensus 76.2% and April's unrevised 76.1%. Finally, June NAHB Housing Market Index of 35.0 vs consensus 37.0 and prior 37.0; survey also revealed that 35% of builders cut prices in June, up from 32% in May. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
15-Jun-2026 06:40	Trump announces MOU with Iran, another diplomatic chapter opens: President Trump Sunday afternoon announced a deal with Iran had been struck to stop the conflict, with signing set for Friday 19-Jun in Switzerland. Said Strait of Hormuz would be reopened on a toll-free basis as of that date and that the US naval blockade would be lifted. Will usher in a 60-day ceasefire extension (including in Lebanon) during which further negotiations will take place regarding Iran's nuclear program and prospects for sanctions relief. Speaking with the NY Times after the announcement, Trump said Hormuz would be "permanently toll-free" and that the US reserved the right to resume strikes on Iran if it fails to reach an acceptable nuclear deal. Also suggested the US could become the "guardian" of the Middle East for ~20% of the region's energy revenues. Many details of the implementation remain unclear. On Hormuz, reports traffic through the strait would be co-regulated by Iran and Oman. Shippers are cautiously optimistic but await more clarity on issues such as mine clearance (Reuters). Note analysts have continued to stress that normalization of traffic to prewar levels could ultimately take months, and that prewar volumes may not completely return given the conflict has encouraged buyers to seek alternative supplies and shipping routes (Bloomberg). MOU also reportedly includes a new Iranian pledge not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons, something Tehran has publicly stated for decades (Reuters). Deal may also involve Iran halting further uranium enrichment, with coming negotiations potentially leading to it diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium; note Trump said Saturday US could retrieve this "when all is calm" (Truth Social). More details likely to emerge on sanctions relief for Iran. US had previously stressed monies could be released as Iran complied with terms of the deal; Iranian officials have talked about US unfreezing ~$25B in assets. Iran's Deputy PM Gharibabadi has claimed that assets could be released after Friday's deal signing, while US officials told CNN "this is a pay for performance deal." For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
14-Jun-2026 10:52	StreetAccount Macro Update: Weekend Headlines AI: Anthropic suspends all access to Mythos model after US government bans foreign national use (X, Politico) US government unlikely to broaden Anthropic export controls to other AI firms (The Information) Amazon CEO's talks with US officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic's models (Reuters) Anthropic's Dario reportedly refused to fix jailbreak pathway within Mythos model (link) Meta's AI unit straggling with company's AI strategy, facing major internal backlash (Wired) Zuckerberg says Meta made a 'mistake' regarding company's AI workforce overhaul (Reuters) White-collar jobs in London now account for only a quarter of total vacancies, down ~50% from 2022 (Bloomberg) OpenAI receives subpoena from several states as part of a probe into user safety (AP) Iran war: Trump says peace deal with Iran is close and will be signed on Sunday; Iranian media remains cautious (CNBC) Pakistani PM sees US-Iran deal being finalized with the next 24 hours (Bloomberg) Israel says its military attacked Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburbs (NY Times) Iran says proposed draft deal with the US includes oil sanctions waiver, asset release (Reuters) UAE refutes claim government has agreed to release up to $20B in frozen assets to Iran (CNBC) Trump says 'no money will exchange hands' in any deal with Iran (The Hill) Iran's chief of its paramilitary forces exercising growing influence over country's US strategy (link) Energy: Iran reiterates it will have to charge for services provided in Strait of Hormuz (link) UK announces Jan-27 deadline for ban on fuel made from Russian crude (Oilprice.com) British forces board Russian sanctioned shadow fleet oil tanker in Channel this morning (link) Investment firms join Trump's $100B bid for Venezuelan oil (FT) Markets: Record capital raising, surging valuations, and a crowded IPO pipeline is prompting market bubble worries (NY Times) Investors remain willing to fund large-scale AI projects despite growing concerns around valuations (FT) SpaceX jumped 19% on Friday closing at around $161, valuing the company at $2.1T (CNBC) Gold miners have lost much of their traditional safe-haven appeal during Iran conflict, now trade like risk assets (Bloomberg) Corporate: Paramount's $111B acquisition of Warner Bros receives DoJ approval (CNBC) Roku exploring its strategic options, including a full sale of company (Reuters) Exxon to soon name Alex Volkov as chief of global trading (Reuters) Trade / Tariffs: Three-day G7 summit kicks off Monday with Iran and tariffs expected to dominate discussions (CNBC) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, META, MREADS, PSKY, ROKU, SPCX, WBD, XOM, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
12-Jun-2026 11:03	Bearish talking points for week ended 12-Jun: Some cause for caution about latest Iran MOU updates. Week was characterized by multiple rounds of back-and-forth attacks as well as continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon; Thursday's announcement that a deal is close has not yet been matched by meaningful Iranian confirmation and there is some indication that gaps remain between the sides (including on Hormuz). Moreover, an MOU may help confirm both sides prefer diplomacy to kinetic action, but a final peace deal will undoubtedly take a long time to formalize. At the same time, analysts have noted Hormuz traffic could take some time to return to prewar levels; meanwhile a lot of discussion this week about how decreased China demand has helped keep a lid on global oil prices Surveys continued to point to consumer caution. NY Fed's latest consumer survey showed a decrease in inflation expectations but also higher expectations of losing one's job; year-ahead expectations about households' financial situation also deteriorated. However, UMich's preliminary June consumer sentiment report noted a small uptick in sentiment and lower inflation forecasts, though said consumers remain tightly focused on kitchen-table issues. Playing into this is recent elevated headline inflation having eroded real wage gains; through May, inflation-adjusted wages are now up only 0.1% since January 2025. Labor-market concerns still bubbling despite solid nonfarm payroll growth numbers. Initial jobless claims this week hit a new four-month high while continuing claims also topped consensus NFIB small-business optimism came in at lowest headline reading since October 2024; while May's report noted increased sales volumes and profit trends, also noted depressed job openings and hiring plans with respondents increasingly flagging inflation concerns. Some cautious takes on this week's big earnings reporters. Oracle beat with surging RPO a highlight, though the margin drag from FY27 capex plans and a $40B debt equity raise were flagged as concerns. Adobe also beat but worries about lower FY26 organic ARR guidance, drag from 'freemium' push for user acquisition, and C-suite transitions. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Jun-2026 11:01	Bullish talking points for week ended 12-Jun: Week ending amid some cautious optimism about a memorandum of understanding in the US-Iran conflict. While final details still to be determined, indications are a deal could involve a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and establishing a framework for further nuclear talks. Announcement sparked a decline in oil prices (WTI December futures below $80/barrel) and Fed tightening expectations. And while questions remain about whether a deal can be finalized, Treasury yields set to end the week lower. Core inflation readings this week also supporting argument energy-price shock not yet bleeding through into prices. Energy accounted for ~60% of the 0.5% m/m headline increase for CPI (in line with consensus), while core CPI printed below forecasts, helped by some shelter deceleration. Core PPI also came in below consensus. Huge enthusiasm into Friday's SpaceX $75B IPO. Reports this week the issue was in the neighborhood of 4x oversubscribed, with a step-down in retail allocation attributed to strong institutional demand. While the coming mega-IPO wave has sparked discussion of equity supply, Goldman Sachs argued this week that supply remains modest relative to the size of the equity market. A few positive AI headlines were in focus this week. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO, though with no indication of size or timing; suggestions the firm could be targeting a valuation up to $1T; also planning an overhaul of ChatGPT to help boost revenue. Anthropic released a public-access version of Mythos incorporating guardrails that can identify riskier requests. And Intel was boosted by hyperscalers evaluating it as a possible backup to TSM. Overall, analysts continued to highlight prospects for equity-market resilience founded on corporate earnings growth, tailwinds from AI capex, and continued positive economic surprise momentum. Morgan Stanley called recent volatility in semis/memory a "healthy reset" while others noted typical pullbacks may not derail longer-term promise. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Jun-2026 10:12	Preliminary June consumer sentiment ahead of consensus, up from May's record low: Preliminary June consumer sentiment came in at 48.9 vs consensus 46.0 and May's final 44.8 (which was a new record low) amid spike in gas prices. However, latest report noted consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in prices. Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down to 4.6% from 4.8% in May, while long-run inflation expectations fell back to 3.4% from 3.9% in May. Lower-income consumers saw a particularly strong sentiment boost, likely reflecting gasoline's larger share of their budgets. Assessments of personal finances and business conditions also improved, though overall economic views still remain subdued. Current Economic Conditions Index rose m/m to 48.4 from 45.8, while Index of Consumer Expectations up to 49.3 from 44.1. Comes after NY Fed released its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations report on Monday which showed easing inflation expectations, though labor market and household financial sentiment weakened. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
12-Jun-2026 06:57	US, Iran near a memorandum of understanding: Market positive on prospects for a near-term memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. While deal still being finalized, reports suggest it will incorporate a 60-day ceasefire extension (including for Lebanon), reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a commitment from Iran about never developing nuclear weapons, and a framework for more detailed nuclear talks (Reuters, AP, Axios). Reports a deal could be signed in Geneva this weekend ahead of next week's G7 meeting (Bloomberg). Agreement seems to have come together following a week of strikes and responses and continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Mideast newsflow also saw a big pivot yesterday after Trump first threatened to hit Iran again and talked about the US seizing Iranian energy infrastructure; this sparked representatives from Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan to call on the president to reconsider (Politico). This is not the first time since the 8-Apr ceasefire there have been reports of a potential deal, with previous instances seeming to founder on communication differences and the parties remaining far apart on "red line" issues including freedom of navigation in Hormuz, the pace of sanctions relief, and the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium. But there appears to be some broader optimism this round, helped by concurring reports in Iranian media. That said, while the deal reportedly anticipates reopening Hormuz in 30 days (CNBC), December WTI futures still see prices at $78/barrel, higher than on 8-Apr. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Jun-2026 15:04	Afternoon Headlines: Iran conflict: Trump says he has called off tonight's planned strikes on Iran, signals desire for diplomacy (NBC News) Trump warns Iran will be hit "very hard tonight," says US will ultimately take control of Iranian oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island (Reuters) White House officials have called Kharg Island operation an "endgame" move given likelihood for heavy casualties (CNN) AI: Jeff Bezos's AI startup Prometheus has raised $12B at a valuation of about $41B (Axios) Anthropic seeking more data center lease agreements, seeking funding from Google to provide financial guarantees (The Information) Nvidia developing AI model tailored for healthcare with medical note-taking app maker Abridge (link) Corporate: Oracle bonds rally after company says no plans for additional issuance this year (Bloomberg) Iranian media says regime will Elon Musk-related corporate holdings in the Mideast (CNBC) Novo Nordisk says it has ‌identified a security incident involving ‌unauthorized access (Reuters) DoorDash's new AI chatbot lets you order food with prompts and photos (TechCrunch) SpaceX receives $5B buy order from BlackRock, other asset managers put in similar-sized orders (link) Markets: SEC proposes eliminating "trade-through" rule prohibiting executing trades below best-price level (Bloomberg) Citigroup establishing blockchain-based trading of private shares, only open to foreign investors to start (link) Gold hits six-month low, analysts see upcoming IPOs draining liquidity from gold, crypto assets (FT) Economy: IMF sees Eurozone risks skewed toward weaker growth and higher inflation (report) Washington: Vice President JD Vance's chief of staff set to depart White House role (Fox News) House rejects short-term FISA extension ahead of Friday's expiration amid dispute over Pulte (Axios) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, NVDA, NVO, ORCL, +ANTHROPIC	show story hide story
11-Jun-2026 14:08	Trump calls off threatened Iran attacks, says deal is close: Back-and-forth day in Mideast diplomacy. After overnight "self defense" strikes and Iranian retaliations, Trump this morning said the country would again be hit "very hard tonight." Said US would be taking control of Iranian oil infrastructure, including the Kharg Island export terminal, in the near future. But then in the early afternoon, Trump backtracked and said he would cancel tonight's strikes because talks are ongoing. Added that main points have been "approved by all parties involved" and that the time and place for signing an agreement will be announced shortly. Upon the second announcement, equities rallied and crude made a modest retreat. Consistent with recent trends of market largely looking through threats to the ceasefire and viewing a memorandum of understanding as a "wait and see" story. Media reports have noted some level of communication has been continuing, though there still is no direct evidence of a meeting of the minds on Trump's "red lines" including sanctions relief, Hormuz free navigation vs oversight, and the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium. And Israel's ongoing efforts against Hezbollah in Lebanon remain a major wild card. But US has also seen as willing to deal, with commentators noting rising US political pressure as Congress agitates for greater oversight, ongoing inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices, Trump's weakening poll numbers, and the looming congressional midterm elections. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Jun-2026 08:55	Jobless claims rise; May headline PPI hotter, core slightly cooler: Initial jobless claims came in at 229K vs consensus 219K and prior week's unrevised 225K; initial claim now highest since Feb-26 and have increased for three straight weeks; continuing claims came in at 1795K vs consensus 1780K and previous week's revised 1771K (was 1777K). Elsewhere, May core PPI increased 0.4% m/m vs consensus for 0.5% increase and April's 0.7% gain (revised from +1.0%); annual core up 4.9% vs consensus 5.4% and April's 4.9% (revised from +5.2%). Headline CPI increased 1.1% m/m vs consensus for 0.7% increase and April's 1.1% gain (revised from +1.4%); annual headline up 6.5% vs consensus for 6.4% and April's 5.7% (revised from +6.0%); annual headline now highest since Nov-22. Total final demand goods up 2.8% m/m following April's 2.0% advance, May's reading is largest increase since data was first calculated in Dec-09; 80% of the increase linked to 10.7% jump in energy prices; Total final demand services up 0.3% m/m following a 0.7% advance in April. Regarding items that flow into PCE, portfolio management up 4.8% (vs April -2.3%); airline passenger services up 2.5% (vs April +0.7%); hospital outpatient up 0.1% (vs April +0.1%); physician care up 0.0% (vs April +0.1%). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Jun-2026 06:59	Market largely looking past US-Iran flareups: Investors seem to be largely looking beyond the US-Iran escalations of the past few weeks, with last night's US "self defense" strikes against targets in southern Iran and Iran's own missile/drone retaliations against Mideast sites not really shifting expectations for a high bar to return to major combat operations. Ceasefire in place since 8-Apr almost universally described as "fragile" (and Iran's foreign ministry called it "meaningless" after latest round of strikes); but a major factor in Trump's approach seems to be a desire to compel Iran to reach a diplomatic agreement rather than move toward more intensive attacks or something like boots on the ground. At the same time, reports talks between Washington and Tehran have intensified despite recent flare-ups. Reuters reports messages relating to a possible memorandum of understanding continue to be exchanged, with possible release of Iran's frozen funds a focus. Note Iran-US talks have repeatedly run aground over a few key points, including sanctions relief, Hormuz free navigation vs oversight, and the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium. But US also seen as willing to deal, with commentators noting rising US political pressure as Congress agitates for greater oversight, ongoing inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices, Trump's weakening poll numbers, and the looming congressional midterm elections. Also thoughts a deal incorporating some of Trump's key "red lines" (pledge against nuclear weapons development and a lengthy pause on enrichment) may be attainable (see NY Times). Oil still a big part of the discussion. Trump said yesterday US since May has facilitated movement of ships carrying ~100M barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz, consistent with recent media reports of increased traffic (Bloomberg). But stated amount represents less than five days' worth of prewar Hormuz volumes, and still a lot of concern about dwindling global inventory buffers ahead of peak seasonal demand and unclear prospects for continued reduction in China purchases (link). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
11-Jun-2026 06:54	Falling China imports, demand destruction, better Hormuz flows keep lid on oil prices: Oil remains below $100/barrel despite no resolution to the Iran war and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters survey shows OPEC crude production has fallen to its lowest level since 2000, while EIA this week said it does not expect Hormuz traffic to return to pre-war levels until early 2027. (Reuters). Analysts cite several factors keeping a lid on prices, including demand destruction, growing tanker traffic through Hormuz, and plummeting Chinese imports. China's oil imports fell to an eight-year low in May as it relied on export curbs, refinery run cuts, and inventory drawdowns to accommodate lost barrels. Markets also entered the war with an estimated 3-4M bpd surplus, providing an initial buffer (Bloomberg, CNBC). Timing of Hormuz reopening remains a key wildcard. Goldman Sachs has assumed a gradual recovery in oil flows, with full normalization several weeks after a complete reopening. Citigroup warned that even after the Strait reopens, inventory rebuilding could keep oil markets tight for an extended period. Fitch expects market oversupply to return in 4Q26 (Fitch). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Jun-2026 14:55	Afternoon Headlines: Iran war: Trump again pledges to launch more attacks on Iran, says US will be 'attacking them very hard' (CNBC) Latest US strikes partially driven by Trump's frustration at pace of diplomacy (Axios) Hormuz shipping volumes remain very thin as US-Iran tensions have intensified (Bloomberg) Trump says US military has supported ships carrying 100M+ barrels of oil through Hormuz since last month (Truth Social) AI: OpenAI preparing a new AI model, expects to IPO within the next year (The Information) Apollo co-President says professional services like law firms, accountants, consultants likely next to face AI disruption (Bloomberg) Amazon inks $17.5B loan in financing led by Citigroup as its fuels its AI investment (Reuters) Texas governor calls on state regulators to protect ratepayers from AI-driven electricity price hikes (Bloomberg) Energy: US crude oil inventories decrease by 7.2M barrels during the week ending June 5 (Oilprice.com) US offers 40M barrels of crude from the strategic reserve (DOE) Central banks: Latest CPI print could put pressure on Fed to keep rates steady for foreseeable future (NY Times) Bond markets continue to price in elevated odds of hike by year end despite cooler core CPI (Bloomberg) BoC holds, as expected, warns of raising policy dilemma (Bloomberg) Corporate: Wegovy already has 10,000 on waiting list in UK (Bloomberg) SpaceX receives orders from $1-5B from Saudi Arabia's PIF, Kuwait Investment Authority (Bloomberg) Visa plugs its payment network into ChatGPT, letting AI agents shop and pay for users (AP) CEO of Ares private credit fund says most withdrawals came from outside the US (Reuters) Ford supplier Novelis restarts production at New York facility after two fires (Reuters) Markets: Freight stocks tumble after Amazon announces trucking expansion (CNBC) Pimco warns credit loss cycle is upon us, AI spend could widen economic outcomes (Bloomberg) Economy: Airfares up 27% y/y in May, adding to travel cost concerns (NY Times) Beef prices up 13% y/y to record high in May as screwworm likely to further tighten cattle supply (Bloomberg) JLL says commercial real estate saw record lending competition in April (CNBC) Trade/tariffs: Trump says he will not reauthorize USMCA, deal to enter rolling annual reviews (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: AMZN, F, NVO, V, +OPENAI	show story hide story
10-Jun-2026 11:09	StreetAccount Event Recap: May CPI May core CPI increased 0.2% m/m (vs consensus 0.3%, prior 0.4%); annualized core at 2.9% (vs consensus 2.9%, prior 2.8%), again highest since Sep-25. May headline CPI increased 0.5% m/m (vs consensus 0.5%, prior 0.6%), second straight month of deceleration; annualized headline at 4.2% (vs consensus 4.2%, prior 3.8%), now highest since Apr-23. Energy remained the primary inflation driver (accounting for ~60% of the headline increase) amid ongoing Iran conflict disruptions; however, core goods prices declined and showed little evidence of broader cost pass-through. Core goods inflation remained subdued, supporting views tariff-related pressures have largely run their course; weakness in vehicles, software and household operations offset some firmness in apparel and used cars. Core services inflation increased m/m but moderated from April's outsized gain driven by temporary shelter-related distortions tied to last year's government shutdown; shelter inflation decelerated and moved back toward its recent trend. Analyst takeaways on PCE and the Fed were mixed with economists noting a single softer core CPI print is unlikely to alter Fed policy. Expectations are for Fed to remain notably cautious amid elevated headline inflation and ongoing energy-related risks. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Jun-2026 08:54	May core CPI softer than expected; shelter inflation decelerates from April: May core CPI increased 0.2% m/m (vs consensus 0.3%, prior 0.4%); annualized core at 2.9% (vs consensus 2.9%, prior 2.8%), again highest since Sep-25. May headline CPI increased 0.5% m/m (vs consensus 0.5%, prior 0.6%), second straight month of deceleration; annualized headline at 4.2% (vs consensus 4.2%, prior 3.8%), now highest since Apr-23. Energy prices rose 3.9% following 3.8% gain in April and 10.9% in March, accounting for over 60% of May's headline CPI increase, though early economist reads noted minimal energy passthrough for now. Core goods decreased 0.1% m/m, following April's flat reading, with a 0.7% decline in medical care commodities and 0.3% decline in new vehicles offsetting 0.3% rise in apparel (tariffs) and 0.1% gain in used vehicles. Core services increased 0.3% m/m, decelerating from April's 0.5% increase which was driven by temporary rebound in shelter inflation tied to prior government shutdown-related data collection disruptions. May's shelter index decelerated m/m to 0.3% from April's 0.6%, now back in its recent normal range. Elsewhere in the report, food prices rose 0.2% vs April's 0.5%; airline fares rose 2.7% vs April's 2.8%; care insurance declined 1.7% vs April's 0.1% gain. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
10-Jun-2026 06:31	US and Iran trade strikes (again), Trump says Iran has taken too long to deal: US overnight launched a new series of what it has characterized as "self-defense strikes" against Iranian targets; US Central Command said operation was a proportional response to Iran's downing of an Apache helicopter. Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones in reaction, targeting Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain; these seem largely to have been intercepted (Axios). Initial market reaction was minimal, with events seen largely consistent with the pattern over past few weeks of sporadic flare-ups of hostility, but limited indications of further escalation. However, Trump this morning said Iran has taken too long to negotiate a deal and must "pay the price" (Truth Social); Fox News reported the president is close to ordering new strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. News follows overnight Politico report a senior White House official said a deal with Iran is "still close." However, an Iranian spokesman today said Tehran is reevaluating the diplomatic path (NY Times) while President Pezeshkian said ongoing "neither war nor peace" situation needs to be resolved (ABC News). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jun-2026 15:01	Afternoon headlines: Iran war: Trump says US "must respond" to Iran downing US helicopter over Hormuz (Axios) Israel launches new Lebanon strikes despite Trump's calls to calm fighting (NBC) US and Iran have reached "hazy outlines" of a nuclear agreement, though unclear when more talks will take place (NY Times) Markets: Wells Fargo strategists say potential sugar-rush behind AI-driven market surge likely over (Bloomberg) Institutional demand surges for record-breaking SpaceX public offering, number of orders has increased since Monday (Bloomberg) AI: Anthropic releases Claude Fable, a version of Mythos, with guardrails for public access (TechCrunch) Frontier AI labs can now offer cybersecurity firms competitive advantage through trusted access (Axios) JPMorgan Chase plans autonomous AI agents for 2026 (Quartz) Tata Consultancy Services will reduce hiring as it steps up the use of AI agents (Bloomberg) Energy: EIA does not expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to ramp up to pre-Iran war level until early 2027 (EIA) EIA projects 2026 Brent price average at $95.39/bbl, up from prior $94.85/bbl; 2027 forecast steady at $79.39/bbl (EIA) EU mulls delaying oil cap hike to curb Russian revenue (Politico) Chinese import reduction buffers global energy market against geopolitical supply shocks (Nikkei) US trade deficit shrinks amid rising oil exports (Reuters) Corporate: SpaceX IPO demand now reportedly approaching four times oversubscribed (Reuters) BofA trading desk revenue trending higher than the 15% increase the bank forecasted last month (Bloomberg) CAVA plans to hire more than 2,500 new team members, open 75 new restaurants this year (Bloomberg) Roblox shares rise on report Russian government is considering lifting its ban on the company's gaming platform (Bloomberg) Boeing delivered 60 commercial airplanes last month, up 33% y/y (Reuters) Starbucks CEO argues his chain could double the number of its stores outside the US (Bloomberg) Economy: U.S. existing home sales surge to highest level since December 2025 (NAR) Uptick in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures gaining attention though still historically low (USA Today) Fintech expansion into rental market highlights deepening US housing affordability crisis (FT) New SSA report accelerates retirement fund depletion estimate to 2032 (CNBC) Job market is healthier outside core white-collar employment (Axios) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jun-2026 13:02	Trump says US "must respond" to Iran downing US helicopter over Hormuz: Iran war concerns back in focus Tuesday after President Trump said on Truth Social that Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz last night. While there were no casualties, Trump said the U.S. "must respond," fueling fears of renewed escalation (link, Axios). Comes after hopes for de-escalation emerged Monday when Iran and Israel agreed to pause direct strikes after weekend flare up. Iran said its latest operation had concluded but warned it would respond if Israel resumed attacks in Lebanon. Lebanon remains a key wildcard, with Israel launching another strike Tuesday despite Trump's calls for restraint. (CNBC). Expectations remain for an eventual deal given the U.S. push for diplomacy. Trump said Netanyahu would likely have to accept a U.S.-brokered agreement and maintained latest Iran-Israel clashes would not derail talks. Still, key sticking points remain, including nuclear restrictions, frozen assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz (FT). NY Times also reported Trump administration had been negotiations with Tehran on four major elements of nuclear agreement that would pause nuclear program for roughly 15 years, diluting current uranium stockpile, dismantling unclear sites, allowing "snap" inspections. Agreement hinges on release of $25B of frozen Iranian assets, with US insisting it be released in increments, EIA's latest Short Term Energy Outlook out today noted it does not expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to ramp up to pre-Iran war level until early 2027; added Hormuz disruptions forced Middle East producers to cut output by over 11M bpd in May vs pre-war level (EIA). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jun-2026 10:12	May existing home sales ahead of consensus amid improving affordability: May existing homes sales increased 3.2% m/m to 4.170M vs consensus 4.070M; month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and were unchanged in the West. May's reading is highest since Dec-25 with report noting improving affordability is supporting demand momentum with mortgage rates below year-ago levels and near historical averages, while income growth continues to slightly outpace home price gains in most markets. Median sales price in May was $429,300, up 1.3% y/y; however, year-over-year affordability has improved in all US regions. Meanwhile, ADP weekly private-employment estimate came in at an average of 29K jobs/week over the four weeks through 23-May. Elsewhere, US April trade deficit came in at $55.9B vs consensus $55.5B and March's $56.6B; compared with the three months ending in Apr-25, the average goods and services deficit declined by $47.6B. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
09-Jun-2026 06:27	NFIB small-business optimism at a two-and-a-half year low NFIB small-business optimism index for May came in at 95.3, down from prior 95.9 and lowest headline reading since October 2024. Employment reading remained essentially flat; but while fewer businesses reported spots they were unable to fill, job openings and hiring plans dropped to their lowest level in six years. However, more businesses reported making capital outlays in the past six months, reported sales volumes increased in May, and net profit trends improved. At the same time, reports of actual and planned price increases rose significantly, and more businesses are planning to increase prices over the next three months than at any time since July 2022. Some 19% of small businesses reported taxes as their single most important problem, though inflation came in at 18% and notched its third consecutive increase. The report added 14% of respondents reported labor costs as their chief issue, the highest this response has seen in the survey's history. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
08-Jun-2026 15:05	Afternoon Headlines: Iran conflict: Israeli PM Netanyahu says attacks on Iran are halted 'for now' (Times of Israel) Yemen's Houthis say they have enacted a total ban on Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea (Reuters) Energy: Fitch expects Brent to stay at $100-110/barrel in June-July during Hormuz closure, before falling to ~$70/barrel by September (Fitch) Russia preparing to sharply reduce crude oil exports this month amid refinery disruptions, fuel shortages (Oilprice.com) Orders for new oil supertankers surpass 2008 boom, raise concerns about potential glut (Bloomberg) AI: Google orders 3M AI chips from Intel for 2028 production as TSMC struggles to meet demand (Quartz) Anthropic's Mythos can turn newly disclosed software vulnerabilities into working exploits within hours (Axios) Corporate: United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby says he does not see more airline consolidation in the US (CNBC) J&J to acquire cancer drug tech developer Firefly Bio for $1B (Reuters) SpaceX's IPO said to be well oversubscribed; order books to close Wednesday afternoon (Bloomberg) SpaceX IPO giving banks opportunity to sell shares to most valuable clients, boost wealth management businesses (NY Times) PG&E says Northern California may see scattered blackouts as a precaution against elevated fire risk (Bloomberg) Markets: JPMorgan sees market remaining choppy in near-term as traders take profits from Big Tech holdings (Bloomberg) BofA strategists say there are too many red flags, advise investors to take profits (Bloomberg) Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan mull futures trading linked to GPU rental prices (The Information) BMO Capital Markets analysts say US dollar cleanest way to take position on new regime of higher rates, inflation (Bloomberg) Private credit: Blue Owl fund that capped redemptions earlier this year set to raise $500M from IG bond sale (Bloomberg) Economy: New York Fed survey shows household worries over finances at highest level since July 2022 (CNBC) Closed home sales jumped in May, reflecting April's dipping mortgage rates and a strong labor market (Redfin) Central banks: Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting may have to contend with the possibility that rates policy is ill-suited to the economic moment (Axios) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, INTC, JNJ, UAL, +ANTHROPIC	show story hide story
08-Jun-2026 11:21	NY Fed SCE: Inflation expectations ease in May, labor market views weaken: May's edition of NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations found household's year-ahead inflation expectations fell m/m to 3.5% from April's 3.6%, while three- and five-year expectations were again both unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. Labor market expectations deteriorated with the perceived probability of losing one's job over next year increasing m/m to 15.1% from 14.6%, while perceived probability of finding a job while jobless declined to 43.7% from 46.0% (now lowest since Dec-25). Perceived probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now fell to 43.2% from 43.9%. Household income expectations were unchanged at 2.8%, while expected spending growth fell 0.4 pp m/m to 5.0%. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, while perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose 1.2 pp m/m to 12.6%. Additionally, household financial sentiment weakened further with more respondents reporting being worse off financially than a year ago, pushing the measure to its weakest level since Jan-23. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
08-Jun-2026 10:56	StreetAccount Event Preview: May Core CPI May CPI report out Wednesday (10-Jun, 8:30 ET). Core CPI consensus of 0.3% down from April's 0.38% print, which was highest since Jan-25. Street forecasts range from 0.30% at higher-end (Jefferies) to 0.17% on lower-end (GS, UBS). Annualized core expected to tick up to 2.9% y/y from prior 2.75%, which was highest since Sep-25. Headline CPI expected to tick down to 0.5% m/m from April 0.6%. Annualized expected to jump to 4.2%, up from prior 3.8%. On goods side, previews said upside pressure from used vehicles (where wholesale prices have been rising in recent months), while Deutsche Bank economists flagged upside risks from apparel (tariff impact), IT. Services expected to see reversal of upward pressure on shelter as October government shutdown impact dissipates. However, JPMorgan economists see upside risks in education, communications from delivery costs after USPS price increase, UPS, FedEx fuel surcharges. BofA economists said that beyond airfares, little evidence so far of higher energy price pass-through to core inflation, though could occur soon, noting Global Supply Chain Pressure Index highest since 2022. However, also argued labor market, fiscal policy, different demand dynamics are different now, less likely to add to inflationary risks. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
08-Jun-2026 07:06	Citi latest to hike S&P 500 target, other strategists remain positive despite last week's selloff: Citi strategists raised S&P 500 year-end target to 8,100 from 7,700, or ~10% higher from Friday's close. Firm also raised its EPS forecast by $30 to $350, introduced preliminary $400 EPS target for 2027. Citi said it has high confidence in continued earnings beats through year-end. Highlighted AI infrastructure spending driving fundamental tailwinds across tech, growth groups. However, also added some caution beyond this year, arguing persistence of AI-driven growth beyond 2027 an open question. Morgan Stanley also remains positive, noting latest correction was inevitable and ultimately healthy if bull market to extend into year-end, sticking to 8,000 price target. RBC Capital Markets said risk of garden-variety pullback of 5-10% from peak up in near-term, though played down risks of higher rates, more hawkish Fed as long as earnings growth remains strong. Goldman Sachs' trading desk played down some pieces of the recent bearish narrative. Firm expects buybacks, M&A will still outstrip equity issuance this year even with IPOs, expected issuance. Forecast equity issuance of ~1% of Russell 3000 market cap this year, at low end of historical range of 1-2.5%. Also noted its US Equity Sentiment Indicator remains muted, said index valuations are elevated in pockets but not in aggregate. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
08-Jun-2026 06:22	Iran says operation against Israel has ended after weekend ramp in hostilities: Middle East tensions a bit cooler Monday morning after Iran's central military command said its current military operation against Israel has ended, though would retaliate if Israeli strikes on Lebanon resume (Bloomberg). Came after Israel, Iran exchanged fire over weekend and into Monday morning, marking first time two sides have targeted each other since the US ceasefire that was brokered in early April (FT, link). Israel struck Beirut as fighting with Hezbollah restarted, targeted major Iranian petrochemical facility. Iran responded with a wave of missiles fired at Israel. Monday morning, Trump said in social media post that Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting. Followed Trump asking Netanyahu to not retaliate to Iran's missile attack because US close to something good in terms of a deal (Axios). A US defense official also played down Israeli strikes, calling them relatively limited in scope (Axios). Despite latest ramp in hostilities, expectations remain for a deal to ultimately come into place given US focus on diplomatic solution. Trump told FT over the weekend Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept US-negotiated deal with Iran, said in a separate interview weekend's attacks between Iran and Israel will not have any impact on a deal. However, sticking points remain including around nuclear timeline, frozen funds, and Strait of Hormuz control. Tehran this weekend rejected US call to use Iranian assets as reparations to compensate US regional allies for war-related damages (Reuters). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Jun-2026 14:36	StreetAccount Event Recap: May nonfarm payrolls May nonfarm payrolls report posted big beat, up 172K against consensus for 86K. Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. However, average hourly wage growth cooler than expected at 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% estimate. Biggest gains in service areas including leisure and hospitality (+70K), healthcare (+35K). Local government also up 55K, helping boost headline payrolls growth. Declines seen in areas including financial activities (-22K), air transportation (-9K, tabbed to Spirit bankruptcy). However, economist takeaways noted sizable World Cup tailwind. Jefferies argued companies building out capacity for transportation, security services, but not clear that the increase will stick. BofA economists estimated World Cup-adjacent sectors (travel and leisure, non-education government like security, infrastructure) came in ~60-100K above trend, said ex-World Cup, 3m payroll growth closer to 60-90K from actual 188K. Other takeaways highlighted potential labor market impact on Fed policy path, noting labor market tightening given still-low breakeven rate, questions around how restrictive Fed policy actually is given reacceleration in job growth. JPMorgan said they continue to see Fed holding through this year before hiking next year. However, BofA played down tightening, noting unemployment rate steady, wage growth tepid. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Jun-2026 12:12	Bearish talking points for week-ended 5-Jun: Broadcom results/guidance underwhelmed against a very high bar and drove a selloff in semis and select AI trade plays late in the week. Along with high bar, takeaways flagged softer Q3 AI semi revenue guide, no bump to FY27 outlook, 2H weighted ramp of 10GW deployments, lingering competitive (TPU diversification) concerns at Google. Late-week Broadcom-led semi selloff added to the scrutiny surrounding extent of momentum factor outperformance (and index risk from an unwind). Goldman Sachs pointed out that cumulative outperformance of S&P 500 momentum vs S&P 500 low volatility index is nearing Tech Bubble peak. Still no framework agreement between US and Iran to reopen SoH and start talks on nuclear program. Along with another round of skirmishes, reports this week highlighted a lack of progress on talks. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah flagged as a big complication, along with timing/sequencing issues surrounding frozen funds, sanctions and SoH. Big bond yield backup following recent rate reprieve with 10-year Treasury yields pushing back above 4.50% and the 30-year bond through 5% on Friday. Stronger May nonfarm payrolls triggered a big bearish flattening move on Friday though yields were already higher for the week on firmer data and oil bounce. A couple of Fed officials broached the idea of rate hikes this year. Dallas Fed President Logan said she is increasingly concerned Fed may need to raise rates later this year to help push inflation back down to 2% target. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said Fed may need to raise rates soon if recent inflation trends continue. Equity supply a widely discussed overhang, with multiple layers. Despite sell-side pushback, still thoughts upcoming mega-IPO wave, including $75B SpaceX listing next week, could hit big tech (source of funds). Google's record ~$85B equity raise headlines also played into AI capex bubble/FCF/monetization debates. Another flurry of headlines about heightened corporate scrutiny on token economics. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman conceded that token budgeting has become a "huge issue" for customers. Also more talk about how aggressive cost-cutting push has led more US firms to adopt China's DeepSeek as an affordable alternative to frontier AI models (open-model threat). More concern oil market has yet to adequately reflect supply disruption dynamics from an extended Middle East conflict and may be near an inflection point. Oil industry executives reportedly warned White House that dangerously low inventory levels are likely to send prices soaring in the next several weeks. Trump administration not giving up on replacing IEEPA tariffs despite affordability concerns. USTR proposed additional tariffs, ranging from 10-12.5%, on a wide swath of trading partners including the EU, China, Canada, Mexico, India and Japan. Followed Section 301 probe into forced labor practices. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Jun-2026 12:12	Bullish talking points for week-ended 5-Jun: Solid macro backdrop narrative supported by high-profile May economic data, including nonfarm payrolls, which increased a much better-than-expected 172K. ISM manufacturing and services both surprised to the upside (and both saw further expansion in new orders). Citi US Economic Surprise Index highest since October 2023. No perceived US appetite for any meaningful/sustained renewal of kinetic activity in Iran despite more skirmishes this week and a lack of progress on a framework agreement to reopen SoH and start talks on Iran's nuclear program. Trump reportedly told aides he would only consider reigniting war with Iran if American troops were killed. Good appetite for supply amid concerns about looming mega-IPO wave (and more discussion about shift away from longstanding de-equitization trend). Google quickly upsized the $80B equity offering it initially announced to nearly $85B. Reports noted strong institutional and SWF demand. Blowout Hewlett Packard Enterprise results latest highlight for AI infrastructure (after Dell last week). Stock surged nearly 20% on Tuesday as results highlighted leverage to surging infrastructure demand to run AI agents and inferencing workloads. Orders more than doubled, exited Q with record backlog and pipeline "multiples of the backlog". Some positive updates out of the industrials sector. Fastenal May average daily sales (ADS) accelerated from prior month and takeaways noted better than normal seasonality, broad-based growth and positive short cycle signals. In addition, May updates from LTL names, including Old Dominion, XPO and Sala, were ahead of seasonality on industrial demand. Berkshire Hathaway put some of its nearly $400B cash pile to work. Agreed to purchase $10B of Google's equity offering via a private placement deal, adding to its $16.6B stake. Also announced first acquisition with Greg Abel as CEO with deal to purchase builder Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8B. Select tariff relief helped drive gains in machinery, HVAC and select auto parts names. White House announced it would dial back some steel and aluminum tariffs, including ag equipment, HVAC equipment and certain industrial machinery from 25% to 15%. Big alt rally on Thursday as Blackstone update dampened renewed ramp in scrutiny surrounding redemptions at private credit funds. Highlighted compelling environment for direct lending, market stabilization and increasing deals at wider spreads. Takeaways positive on redemption composition dynamics. Flow dynamics still supportive for equities. According to EPFR Global, net flows to global equity funds turned positive again in week-ended 3-Jun (+$23B vs -$7B in prior week). BofA's Flow Show report noted US equity funds attracted $20.7B for a tenth straight week of inflows. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
05-Jun-2026 08:50	May payrolls beat, cap off best three-month growth in over two years: May headline nonfarm payrolls of 172K well ahead of consensus 86K. April revised up to 179K from initial 115K print, total prior two month revision up 93K. Three-month average of ~188K highest since three-months to Mar-24. Average hourly earnings up 0.32%, a bit lighter than consensus 0.4% m/m, though marked third-straight monthly increase. Annualized of 3.4% down from April's 3.6% print. Hours worked unchanged at 34.3. Unemployment rate of 4.3% in line with consensus and April level. Labor force participation rate of 61.8% unchanged from April. Prime-age EPOP up 0.1 pp to 80.8%, highest since January. Private payrolls of 120K above consensus 115K, prior revised up to 177K from prior 123K. Biggest areas of growth included services, particularly leisure and hospitality (+70K), health care (+35K). Contractions seen in financial activities (-22K), air transportation (-9K; recall month included Spirit bankruptcy). Local government also up 55K. Following print, policy-sensitive 2Y yield jumped. Fed funds futures now pricing 21 bp of hikes through year-end (up from 13 bp prior to report), fully pricing rate hike by February, up from March prior to report. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Jun-2026 15:06	Afternoon headlines: AI: SpaceX lead IPO investment bank Goldman Sachs says it expects company's AI revenues to surge 100x by 2030 to $322B (FT) Anthropic says AI itself is already accelerating the development of AI systems (Axios, post) Corporate: Databricks to delay IPO beyond 2026 given flurry of offerings this year (Bloomberg) Liftoff Mobile rallies on its IPO, three months after withdrawing a previous registration (Bloomberg) Quantinuum shares jump above IPO price after demand was 20-times oversubscribed (Bloomberg) Private credit: Blackstone limiting flagship private credit fund redemptions to 5%; investors had asked to redeem 10% of their shares (CNBC) Iran conflict: Hezbollah says Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is a "farce," says it will continue to confront aggression (Washington Post) IAEA notes little change to its assessment of Iran's nuclear programs, still unable to verify enriched uranium stocks (Reuters) Energy: Oil industry execs telling White House waning inventory buffers may mean global energy prices could surge in weeks (Politico) US more insulated from employment effects of oil shocks, but also less disinflationary pressure (Bloomberg, study) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: BX, LFTO, QNT, SPCX, +ANTHROPIC, +DATABRICKS...(more)	show story hide story
04-Jun-2026 08:46	Initial jobless claims highest in four months: Initial jobless claims for week to 30-May came in at 225K, above consensus 211K and previous week's downwardly revised 212K (was 215K). Highest since week to 6-Feb. Four-week moving average was 214,750, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's average. Continuing claims for week to 23-May came in at 1777K, a touch below consensus 1780K and down from last week's downwardly revised 1785K (was 1786K). Challenger layoffs up 16% m/m to 97K, up from prior 83.4K. Highest since January and up for third-straight month. Report noted Technology sector layoffs of ~38K highest since Aug-24. Also noted AI now the leading reason companies give for cutting jobs, accounted for 40% of all cuts announced in May, up from 26% a month ago (and 7% in January). Final Q1 productivity of 0.3% down from prior 0.8% read, lowest since Q1-25. Final Q1 unit labor costs of 1.8% down from 2.3%, lowest since Q3-25. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
04-Jun-2026 07:02	Trump remains hesitant to restart full conflict, Israel/Lebanon agree to full ceasefire: Trump has told aides he will end ceasefire with Iran if American troops killed, has insisted pause in airstrikes remains intact despite recent flareups, according to media report (link). Noted that continues to suggest Trump remains reluctant to reignite war, willing to withstand smaller skirmishes to avoid broader conflict. Report also said repeated attacks have raised pressure on Trump to come to an agreement, cast doubt over long-term ceasefire. Recall Trump told NY Post this week that he's in no rush to sign agreement with Iran, US naval blockade may remain in place through Labor Day. Israel, Lebanon agreed to full ceasefire, contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks, withdrawing operatives from area south of Litani River in Lebanon (Axios). Recall full ceasefire in Lebanon was key Iranian demand as part of negotiations with Trump administration. However, Iran said no progress has been made recently in talk with US over interim peace deal (Bloomberg). Elsewhere, four House Republicans joined Democrats on Wednesday on bill that would halt Middle East military operations unless authorized by Congress, reflecting (some) growing tensions between White House and Congressional GOP. However, Politico noted vote largely symbolic as Trump would veto any legislation that restricts his authority. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Jun-2026 15:04	Afternoon headlines: Iran conflict: Trump says a deal could be struck "fairly quickly" while conceding the blockade of Iran could stretch past Labor Day (NY Post) IAEA warning the risk of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons is higher than before the war (Bloomberg) Central banks: Fed officials, staffers anxious Waller's push to centralize operations may undermine regional Fed autonomy (Bloomberg) NY Fed's Williams says policy well positioned, sees no obvious direction for future rate path (Bloomberg) Private credit: SDNY head says examining potential discrepancies in private credit marks (Bloomberg) Alt asset managers sell off after Switzerland's Partners Group caps investor withdrawals from its flagship fund (Sherwood) Markets: Vanguard ETF that tracks S&P 500 becomes first to reach $1T in assets (FT) Economy: Frustrated sellers pulling home listings off market at fastest since pandemic (CNBC) Walmart CEO says high gas prices straining US households, low-income consumers in particular (Bloomberg) Treasury Secretary Bessent tells Congressional committee Iran-linked inflation will be a short-term blip (FT) Analysts caution oil stockpiles tightening, may not be able to continue to absorb price shocks (Washington Post) Trade/tariffs: Trump administration lowering content threshold, broadens coverage for duties on copper imports (Bloomberg) Corporate: Jefferies emerges as go-to bank for short bets against SpaceX after being left out of IPO (Bloomberg) Adobe considering two internal leaders, external candidates with AI experience for CEO role (Bloomberg) AI: Alphabet raises equity raise to nearly $85B from original $80B after it says offering oversubscribed (FT) Meta unveils new AI agent for business (Reuters) WhatsApp business users to allow AI agent responses in Meta's latest AI integration push (FT) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Jun-2026 14:11	Fed's latest Beige Book notes ongoing price pressures, moderate growth: Fed's latest Beige Book said economic activity increasing at slight to modest pace in ten of 12 Districts, while one reported a slight decline. Said consumer spending remained mixed, increasingly bifurcated. Noted higher-income households remain resilient and less sensitive to price increases, while middle-income "squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it," and lower-income showing greater financial strain. Noted increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, stronger demand for necessities. Also said auto dealers saw softer new vehicle demand, substitution dynamics toward used, hybrid vehicles. Business outlooks for next six months saw little changed in anticipated growth, noted elevated uncertainty, signs of weakening labor market weighing on sentiment. Employment saw little to no change across 11 of 12 districts, one saw modest growth. Also noted ongoing saw low-hire, low-fire environment. Prices seen as rising at moderate to strong pace, most Districts seeing higher inflation than prior report. Energy-related costs primary driver, though noted spillovers in shipping, packaging, groceries, fertilizer. Also noted ability to pass along higher costs remained mixed, particularly consumer-facing firms. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Jun-2026 11:07	StreetAccount Event Preview: May nonfarm payrolls May's nonfarm payrolls report to be released at 8:30am Eastern on Friday 5-Jun. Consensus looking for ~90K in headline job gains after April's 115K (print was well above the ~62K consensus). Unemployment rate seen holding at 4.3% for the third straight month; forecasts for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m after prior month's 0.2% pace. Some positive indications from recent reports. April JOLTS saw job openings come in ahead of consensus, though overall hires dipped. May ADP private payrolls printed at 122K vs the ~120K consensus, with job gains still concentrated in education/health and trade/transportation. May's ISM manufacturing report saw its employment component rise to 48.6 from 46.4 in April (though has remained in contraction for 32 months). May ISM services saw employment little changed, staying in contraction for the third consecutive month. Analysts generally expect solid headline jobs growth, just a bit off recent strength. Previews pointed to low levels of jobless claims (despite drumbeat of layoff announcements) and solid weekly ADP estimates of private payroll growth. But also some downward pressures, including continued drag from federal employment contraction; Jefferies suggested a ~10K impact from layoffs related to the Spirit Air bankruptcy. JP Morgan notes recent May readings have lagged below the three-month trend (and have been revised lower the past few years). Unemployment rate generally seen holding at 4.3% but some notes that April's unrounded 4.337% means a lower bar for ticking up to 4.4%. Goldman Sachs notes the unrounded unemployment rate has increased in each of the last three Mays. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Jun-2026 10:17	May ISM services stronger than forecast, with new orders a bright spot: May ISM services printed at 54.5, better than consensus for 53.8 and April's 53.6. Notable jump in new orders to 57.3 vs prior 53.5. Employment component slipped marginally to 47.9 from 48.0; prices paid rose to 71.3 against April's 70.7 (now highest since August 2022); no commodities reported down in price for third consecutive month. Inventories jumped to 62.5 from last month's 53.1, though release noted respondent confidence that business activity will remain strong amid higher costs. Respondent commentary was cautious. Many mentions of price pressures, with respondents flagging Mideast tensions and tariff policies. Some references to improved supply chains as well as some mentions of constraints. Elsewhere, final May S&P Global US Services PMI came in at 50.7, below 53.9 consensus and April's 51.0. Release noted softer growth linked to rising prices (particularly fuel/energy); added outlook weakened to lowest level since October 2022 on respondent uncertainty regarding inflation and economic recovery. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Jun-2026 08:29	May ADP private payrolls top consensus, with job gains still concentrated in healthcare and education: May ADP private payrolls rose 122K jobs, a bit better than consensus for ~120K and April's downwardly revised 105K (was 109K). Headline is again highest since January 2025. Release noted bulk of job gains in education/health services (+57K) and trade/transportation (+36K), reflecting continued concentration. Small businesses accounted for 67K of the topline growth, most coming from firms with 1-19 employees. However, next largest area of gains (+40K) was establishments with 500+ employees. Annual pay gains for job-stayers rose 4.4%, level with April's result; job changers saw 6.5% pay increases, just below prior month's 6.6%. Report follows continued strength in ADP's weekly Pulse private-employment estimates; also comes after yesterday's above-consensus JOLTS job openings for April. Labor-market attention now shifts to Friday's May nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to see ~90K in headline job gains, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and average hourly earnings ticking up 0.3% m/m vs April's 0.2% pace. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
03-Jun-2026 07:01	Warsh may upend forward guidance this month, embark on sweeping overhaul of Fed: Former top Fed officials expect Warsh to begin to roll back forward guidance as soon as 17-Jun meeting, said Chair may not submit a forecast for dot plot (FT). Recall Warsh said in Senate confirmation hearing that he doesn't believe he should preview future decisions. Warsh could also cut easing/tightening bias commentary from policy statement. Comes after three April dissents arguing for removing easing bias, while Fed Governors Waller, Cook have since supported removal. Warsh also said in memo to Fed employees he will follow best of Fed traditions, though will look at what may be done differently (Reuters). Has supported trimming the $6.7T balance sheet, reducing communication from Fed officials. Has also considered alternative inflation measures, such as trimmed mean, which has shown lower inflation than broader indexes since 2021 (link). Also some focus on temporary hires of conservative policy analysts, one of whom wrote Project 2025 chapter on the Fed, calling for proposals to eliminate maximum employment mandate in favor of single inflation mandate, abolishing federal government's role in regulating supply of money (Bloomberg). Markets pricing 96% chance of a hold at June meeting, though futures pricing 17.5 bp of hikes through year-end and a full 25 bp hike by Mar-27. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Jun-2026 15:08	Afternoon headlined: Iran conflict: Tehran has not communicated with Washington for a few days, Iranian media says taking a "stern" approach to talks (Reuters) Trump asserts negotiations with Iran have been going on continuously (Truth Social) Israel continuing strikes in Lebanon despite Trump saying shooting has stopped (AP) Strait of Hormuz transits remain extremely limited with just two inbound transits on Tuesday (Bloomberg) Energy: Greek shipping tycoon Marinakis says he would be ready to pay fees to transit Strait of Hormuz if that would keep it open (FT) Corporate: SpaceX negotiating to pay less than 0.75% for the $75B it plans to raise in IPO, typically over 1% for deal of that size (Bloomberg) Impulse Space raised $500M at a $4.26B valuation (Reuters) Paramount seeking EU antitrust approval for Warner Bros Discovery purchase, decision to be made by 7-Jul (Reuters) UAW says no talks have taken place between Union and GM supplier Dauch (Reuters) Shake Shack cuts guidance, CEO Lynch cites macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive landscape (link) Dollar General management says shoppers cutting back on food, other household expenses due to rising gas prices (Bloomberg) Economy: Stockpiling may be behind some of the strength in ISM manufacturing (Axios) US to boost nuclear fuel production capacity by as much as 50% in effort to reduce reliance on Russia (FT) Washington: Trump names FHFA head Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence, unclear he could gain Senate confirmation (Politico, Truth Social) Trump's $1.8B weaponization fund in doubt, but US officials continuing with agreement that bars probing Trump tax filings (Bloomberg) AI: OpenAI introduces new plugins for finance (Bloomberg) Anthropic to distribute Mythos to 150 organizations across 15 countries (FT) Trump signs executive order directing US agencies to work with AI labs on cybersecurity (Bloomberg) Central banks: Cleveland Fed's Hammack says rate hikes may be needed soon if elevated inflation pressures continue to mount (Reuters) BOE's Greene sees growing case for rate hikes due to Iran, inflation, says bank can't rely on market tightening to do its job (Reuters) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
02-Jun-2026 14:59	Equity supply impact under scrutiny with IPOs, Alphabet $80B raise ahead: With upcoming IPOs and $80B Alphabet equity offering in the pipeline, Street commentary has focused on market impact of positive net supply after years of de-equitization. Equity supply dynamics likely to put pressure on market ROE, which now sits near record 20%, according to Bloomberg analysts. Also noted an issuance of Alphabet's $80B magnitude would have swung net equity supply in Q4-25 from -$44B to +$40B. Whether Big Tech shares will be used as source of funds for upcoming IPOs also under scrutiny. BofA strategists recently argued IPOs to consume dry powder, push investors to sell recent winners to buy newly issued shares. Goldman Sachs strategists recently raised 2026 IPO volume forecast to $225B from $160B (and additional $500B from expiring lockups). However, argued equity demand to outweigh IPO supply, citing recent IPO trading strength, supply relative to size of equity market remains below longer-term average, and still-elevated corporate repurchase demand (forecast $1.3T in buybacks in 2026 vs $1.1T in issuance). Oppenheimer analysts noted equity raise (as opposed to debt) suggests market becoming less favorable to AI data center financing, could be catalyst for weaker positioned companies to rationalize spending (noting Meta). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: GOOGL, SPCX, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI	show story hide story
02-Jun-2026 10:09	April job openings top forecasts, with quits rate ticking slightly lower: April JOLTS job openings came in at 7618K, ahead of Street consensus for ~6850K vs prior 6887K (revised up from 6866K). Hires dipped to 5116K from prior 5535K; quits rate moved down slightly to 1.9% from March's 2.0%. Note previews had expected little change m/m based on online job postings and relatively stable jobless claims. Release the first in a busy week of labor-market reports. Tomorrow's May ADP private payrolls report expected to show growth of 125K after April's 109K increase. Analysts have noted strength in ADP's preliminary weekly job-growth releases; most recent report estimated 35,750 private jobs created weekly for the four weeks ending 9-May. Big focus is May nonfarm payrolls report, out Friday at 8:30am Eastern. Street looking for an increase of ~90K, with unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% and average hourly earnings to move up 0.3% after April's 0.2% pace. Analyst previews noting low and relatively stable claims, positive signals from ADP weekly releases, and likely positive impacts from weather on several industries; however, also some expectations recent payroll strength could eventually be revised lower. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jun-2026 15:02	Afternoon headlines: Iran conflict: Iran suspends talks through mediators, warns it could completely close Strait of Hormuz (FT) Lebanese officials say Hezbollah ready for a full and immediate ceasefire (Axios) Trump speaks to Israel's Netanyahu, says shooting in Lebanon will stop (Truth Social) Trump tells CNBC he doesn't care if Iran negotiations are over, says talks have started to get boring (CNBC) AI: Anthropic confidentially filed for IPO (CNBC) Walmart latest company to limit token usage by employees (Bloomberg) Florida sues OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman over safety concerns (NBC News) Anthropic to extend access for Mythos to EU after European Commission sought access to study cybersecurity concerns (CNBC) Fluence shares jump more than 40% after announcing collaboration with Siemens, Nvidia (Bloomberg) Honeywell-backed Quantinuum boosts IPO size and price, looking to raise $1.46B at $53-55 a share (Bloomberg) Corporate: JetBlue says it is seeing strong demand across geographies, cabins despite rising prices (link) Barry Diller's People offers to remainder of MGM Resorts it doesn't own for $12.4B (link) Nearly 1K workers at Michigan supplier plan that makes parts for GM on strike (CNBC) Strategy shares fall after selling 32 coins, second sale in company history after Dec-22 (CNBC) SpaceX reserving 5% of shares for certain employees, friends and family of executives, will not be subject to lock-up (Bloomberg) McDonald's unveils new global growth plan to compete for smaller customer pool, competition from rising QSRs (CNBC) Markets: Traders bet US dollar to rise in weeks ahead on anxiety over US/Iran deal, AI-fueled stock rally (Bloomberg) JPMorgan analysts warn riskiest corners of tech sector may be overextended after big outperformance (Bloomberg) Energy: US oil refiners running plants harder than usual, delaying maintenance as profits, demand remain elevated (Bloomberg) Economy: Remote work accounts for 64% of rise in youth unemployment, according to NY Fed study (CNBC) US data center construction jumps above $50B in April for first time, accounts for 2.3% of all US construction spend (Bloomberg) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jun-2026 10:15	May ISM manufacturing better with solid internals, but respondent commentary distinctly cautious: May ISM manufacturing printed at 54.0, ahead of consensus for 53.0 and April's 52.7. New orders rose to 56.8 against prior month's 54.1 (previews suggested continued new-orders strength from companies looking to stay ahead of price increases). Employment component rose but remained in contraction. Prices paid dipped to 82.1 from last month's 84.6, which was a fourth-straight increase and the highest reading since April 2022. Respondent commentary leaned notably cautious, flagging ongoing uncertainties and price pressures (particularly energy costs) related to the US-Iran conflict; 57% of respondents mentioned pricing volatility. Also notes of continued component shortages amid strong demand. Elsewhere, final May S&P US manufacturing PMI printed at 55.1 vs the 55.3 flash reading. Release noted new orders increased markedly again, though driven partly by stock building as firms sought protection from higher costs and supply chain disruptions. Added manufacturing costs rose at fastest pace since July 2022. April construction spending rose 0.4% m/m against consensus for a 0.3% rise and March's 0.6% monthly pace. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
01-Jun-2026 07:00	US-Iran negotiations continue, though new strikes add to the uncertainty: US-Iran diplomacy remains very messy after Trump on Friday did not bless a draft memorandum of understanding but sent it back with some tougher language addressing his red lines, including Iran never possessing nuclear weapons (Axios, NY Times). Further complicating matters, the US conducted a new round of "self defense" strikes on targets in southern Iran including radar and drone-control sites (NBC News). Israel also continued to push deeper into Lebanon despite their ceasefire and scheduled negotiations in DC this week (AP). Also reports Kuwait came under Iranian drone and missile fire (NPR). Unclear where this leaves diplomatic efforts, though the sides remain in contact. Iran's lead negotiator Ghalibaf called recent actions clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire, adding "the bill comes due" (Bloomberg). However, Trump struck a more optimistic tone, saying Tehran really wants to make a deal and it will be a good one, but negative "chirping" from politicians and the media is making this more difficult (Truth Social). Weekend events do not seem to have changed the baseline assumption that the sides will eventually reach a negotiated settlement. There also remains some optimism about increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg, NY Times). But there are also thoughts traffic may not return to prewar levels as long as Iran maintains some sway over the strait (CNBC). For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-May-2026 11:19	Bearish talking points for week-ended 29-May: Still no US-Iran deal despite all the hype. Trump reportedly has not signed off on deal framework and sent mixed messages throughout the week. Still a lot of skepticism about convergence on hot-button issues, particularly nuclear. No reported follow-through on the SoH transit momentum highlighted earlier in the week. Also a couple of military flare-ups this week. More momentum/concentration/AI trade scrutiny. Goldman Sachs noted Info Tech gross/net exposures both ended prior week at/near 5-year highs in the 100^th percentile. Nomura noted just ten stocks have accounted for 69% of the 19% rally in the S&P since late March. Also estimated 87% of ~$187B in leveraged ETF AUM is in "AI Tech Leadership". Concerns about cracks in consumer resilience theme. Data highlighted a continued deceleration in real PCE and savings rate fell to lowest level in nearly four years in April. Financial press discussed how surge in interest rates and sticky inflation have led to highest credit card delinquencies since financial crisis. "Tokenmaxxing" the latest high-profile pocket of AI backlash. Multiple reports this week discussed how corporate leaders are increasingly questioning whether surging AI spending is producing meaningful returns. Also highlighted concerns that more disciplined enterprise allocation could dent the AI broader narrative. Hawkish lean to Fedspeak, even around the (perceived dovish) AI dynamic. Musalem said Fed cannot rely on potential productivity boom from AI to relieve elevated inflation. Goolsbee said the bigger the hype about future productivity tailwind from AI the more the Fed may need to raise rates to prevent overheating. Zscaler the big earnings disappointment in tech, falling more than 30% on Wednesday despite a fairly strong fiscal Q3 print. Takeaways highlighted weaker organic net new ARR growth guide for Q4 and underwhelming initial FY27 guidance. Sales organization leadership changes a headwind. Also some concerns about competition. Softline/apparel earnings disappointed with both Gap and American Eagle down big on Friday (though merchandising>macro). ON the issue for Gap with weakness concentrated in seasonal categories, particularly dresses. AE the issue for American Eagle as comps unexpectedly reverted negative with weakness in women's bottoms. White House pivot from Iran could put some trade/tariff risk back in focus. Report Friday noted Trump administration expected to propose change to USMCA that would require 50% of components and materials in an automobile to be sourced from US in order to qualify for lower tariffs under the trade pact. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
29-May-2026 11:19	Bullish talking points for week-ended 29-May: US-Iran deal expectations elevated following positive flurry of headlines last weekend. It was later reported that US and Iranian negotiators reached agreement on a 60-day MOU to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. Under the deal, all constraints on SoH transit would be removed (and Iran would clear mines). US-Iran deal hopes drove big pullbacks in both oil and yields. WTI crude down over 9% for the week in early Friday trading. Helped drive outperformance in SoH reopening plays this week. Rate reprieve supportive for risk sentiment given technical breakout earlier in the month that triggered a pickup in concern about structural pressures. Dell's blowout Q1 results and guidance latest highlight for the AI infrastructure story. Takeaways noted 750%+ y/y increase in AI server revenue, $24.4B in AI orders, nearly 20% q/q increase in backlog to $51.3B and pipeline strength (multiple of backlog). Also positive on strength in traditional server and storage. Snowflake surged 36%+ following earnings as the AI narrative flipped (and helped software outperform). Takeaways focused on better-than-expected product revenue growth with AI offerings a key tailwind. Highlighted strong uptake of Cortex Code and noted Snowflake Intelligence accounts more than doubled q/q. Snowflake also announced $6B chip deal with AWS. Consumer resilience and solid macro backdrop narratives supported by earnings and corporate commentary (Bernstein conference). Retail results had puts and takes but no signs of demand deterioration implied by depressed sentiment readings. Bank/credit card executives highlighted continued US economic strength. Airlines talked up strong travel demand despite fare hikes. Strong earnings story continued to be highlighted in sell-side research. Jefferies noted 34% of SPX companies that adjusted Q2 guidance took it higher, in the 90^th percentile. Also noted SPX revision ratio surging toward 2x with latest reading in 94^th percentile. Goldman Sachs raised year-end S&P 500 price target to 8000 on better earnings outlook. Seasonality suggests another strong month for stocks in June (and July). JPMorgan noted S&P has averaged a +1.85% return in June with a 90% hit rate over last ten years. Added that July has fared even better, averaging a +3.37% return with a 100% hit rate. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-May-2026 15:07	Afternoon headlines: Iran conflict: Negotiators have reached a 60-day ceasefire deal with unrestricted Hormuz traffic, though Trump has not given final approval (Axios) AI: Microsoft set to release new suite of homegrown AI models at annual Build Conference (The Information) Anthropic rolls out Opus 4.8 model, touts improvements to coding, financial analysis, reasoning (Bloomberg) Anthropic officially passes OpenAI as most valuable AI startup, announces $65B capital raise at $900B valuation (NY Times) Markets: Citadel's Rubner says pain trade in stocks remains higher as investors feel underexposed (Bloomberg) Citadel strategists say investors underestimating odds of timely reopening of Strait of Hormuz, broader US/Iran deal (Bloomberg) Goldman Sachs notes market on track to see full-year M&A activity near if not better than the 2021 record (Reuters) Economy: Companies getting message on affordability concerns, launching smaller/cheaper products, promoting value packages and even reversing price increases (link) EU preparing emergency powers to intervene in European semiconductor supply chains during shortages (FT) Central banks: Fed's Musalem says it is risky to rely on future AI productivity benefits to solve inflation problems today (Bloomberg) Fed's Williams says shifts in productivity growth can impact the rate path, but are highly uncertain (speech) Corporate: Starbucks says it is seeing momentum in afternoon traffic, a key growth driver highlighted by CEO (CNBC) Fertitta Entertainment agrees to all-cash takeover of Caesars Entertainment (FT) Federal regulators halt review of $71B merger between Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern (link) Energy: US crude stockpiles down for fifth straight week; gasoline inventories lower for 15th straight week and 6% below 5-year average (link) For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page. Related: CZR, MSFT, NSC, SBUX, UNP, +ANTHROPIC, +OPENAI...(more)	show story hide story
28-May-2026 08:55	April core PCE slightly cooler than expected, personal income misses, headline durable goods surge: April Core PCE up 0.24% m/m, below consensus 0.3% m/m and prior 0.30%. Annual core PCE up 3.29% y/y, in line with consensus 3.3% y/y, slightly higher than prior 3.24%. Also tied with Nov-23 for hottest y/y print since Oct-23. Personal spending up 0.5% m/m, in line with consensus. Personal income flat, missing consensus 0.4% (prior 0.6%) Initial jobless claims for week to 23-May 215K, slightly above consensus 213K and prior 210K (revised up from 209K). Continuing claims for week to 16-May of 1786K a bit below consensus 1791K, up from prior 1771K (revised down from 1782K). April headline durable goods orders up 7.9% m/m, well ahead 0.8% consensus 0.8% (March revised up to 1.35% from 0.85%). Durable goods ex-transportation of 1.1% also ahead of consensus 0.25% (prior revised up to 1.1% from 0.88%). Core capital goods orders down -1.1% after last month's 3.9% increase, expectations for 0.4% m/m. Core capital goods shipments up 0.4% m/m, a deceleration from prior 1.3% print. Second reading of Q1 GDP of 1.6% annualized pace down from prior 2.0% print. Release noted downward revision driven by lower investment, consumer spending. However, pace remains faster than 0.5% Q4 pace, driven by upturns in government spending, investment. New home sales for April of 622K missed consensus for 675K, down 6.2% from downwardly revised 663K March print (was 682K), and slowest since January. Months' supply up to 9.4 at current pace, up from 8.7 in March. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-May-2026 07:21	More hawkish Fedspeak, flagging upside pressure from energy prices, AI productivity: Speaking at Stanford, Fed Governor Cook said inflation headed in wrong direction, prepared to raise interest rates if that persists (Bloomberg). Cook said she favors holding for now, expects prices to cool in months ahead. Also said labor market stable, but downside risks elevated. Speaking at BoJ conference, Fed Governor Jefferson said current policy setting well positioned to respond to macro developments (Bloomberg). Expects inflation to cool later this year as tariff, energy costs wear off, though inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Minneapolis' Kashkari (voter) told CNBC bringing down inflation remains top priority, warned of risk that inflation expectations become unanchored and move higher. No specific policy mentions, though followed Wednesday comment Fed could embark on series of hikes, next move could be either a cut or hike (Nikkei). Also at BoJ conference, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter) said high expectations for AI's productivity-boosting potential could increase inflation, lead to higher rates (Reuters). Also cautioned near-term supply shocks from oil prices, disruptions to supply chains, make the problem worse. Latest Fedspeak continue to extend recent hawkish tilt, while market pricing ~16 bp of hikes through year end (though down from 25 bp on Friday), and pricing a full 25 bp hike by Apr-27. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story
28-May-2026 06:39	US, Iranian negotiators reportedly agree on 60-day MOU, but Trump has yet to give approval: Axios reported US, Iranian negotiators have reached agreement on 60-day MOU to extend ceasefire, launch negotiations of Iran's nuclear program, and state shipping through Strait of Hormuz will be unrestricted. However, Trump still has yet to give final approval. US conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran for second time in three days on Wednesday, targeting four one-way attack drones, drone ground control station near Bandar Abbas (NY Times, Axios). Iran had fired drones at commercial ship in Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials, while US said actions purely defensive, intended to maintain ceasefire. Iran's IRGC also said they targeted US airbase after US Bandar Abbas strike, warned of more decisive response if aggression repeated (Reuters). Kuwait on Thursday also activated air defense systems over missile and drone threats (CNBC). Ongoing strikes have raised tensions between US and Iran as two sides have been working toward a deal, adding to uncertainty that a peace deal may be imminent. Both sides downplayed reports on draft MOU on Wednesday, while Trump said he does not care about economic impact or political discontent over Iran, will not push him to make a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, extend ceasefire (FT). Expectations remain for a deal to be reached soon, though latest escalation pushing oil higher (after finishing at lowest level since 20-Apr on Wednesday), while market Fed rate hike pricing continues to track energy pricing, now at 16 bp through year-end, up 3 bp from yesterday. For the latest updates on this story and all top news, please visit the US Today's Top News page.	show story hide story

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